Sri Lanka Parliamentary Election - August 17, 2015

[jaichind]

With about 5.7 million votes in out of about 10 million votes it is

UPFA  44.1%    18 seats
UNP    44.0%    15 seats
JVP      5.1%       1 seat
TNA     4.7%       6 seat
EPDP    0.6%      1 seat

[Cubby]

I hope Sirisena wins again. He's been great so far. I take it he will continue to improve relations with India? That'd be good although Modi still sucks, I don't care how big a landslide he got.

Rajapaksa is a bigot and too willing to let China overrun the country, like building that new port and airport near Colombo. 

[ag]

So far (not sure of the reporting percentage, but around 8 mln votes reporting

UNP 45.2%       31 seats
UPFA  43.9%    35 seats
JVP      5.0%       1 seat
TNA     3.6%       6 seats
EPDP    0.4%      1 seat

[Famous Mortimer]

God, FPTP probably Fs up Sri Lanka more than any other country. The seat totals are never anywhere near proportional.

[politicus]

I hope Sirisena wins again. He's been great so far. I take it he will continue to improve relations with India? That'd be good although Modi still sucks, I don't care how big a landslide he got.

Rajapaksa is a bigot and too willing to let China overrun the country, like building that new port and airport near Colombo. 

There is the interesting question to what extent Sirisena is his own man at this point, but he has clearly tried to distance himself from his backers.

The aftermath of this election will be at least as interesting as the actual results.

[jaichind]

God, FPTP probably Fs up Sri Lanka more than any other country. The seat totals are never anywhere near proportional.

Actually the system now is a multi-seat party list system which is fairly close to PR with a fairly small bonus for larger parties due to threshold affects. 

[jaichind]

UPFA  43.0%    69 seats
UNP    46.1%    70 seats
JVP      5.0%      3 seat
TNA     3.7%     10 seat
EPDP    0.3%      1 seat

I am surprised how low TNA vote share is.  It seems a lot of TNA voters voted for UNP.

[jaichind]

UPFA  43.0%    83 seats
UNP    46.3%    92 seats
JVP      5.0%      3 seat
TNA     3.6%     11 seat
EPDP    0.3%      1 seat

[jaichind]

Almost 11 million votes have been counted.  This means turnout was at least 73%.  The high turnout was what prevented UPFA victory if not majority. 

[jaichind]

Only Batticaloa with 5 seats is outstanding in terms of district seat results.  Most likely it will be TNA 3 UNP 1 Sri Lanka Muslim Congress 1

[jaichind]

Looks like all results in for 196 district seats.  Batticaloa came in as expected


UPFA  42.4%    83 seats
UNP    45.7%    93 seats
JVP      4.9%      4 seat
TNA     4.6%     14 seat
SLMC   0.4%       1 seat
EPDP    0.3%      1 seat

The other 29 seats will be based in PR which I assume will be

UPFA   13
UNP     14
JVP        1
TNA       1

Which means total seat count will be

UPFA    96 seats
UNP    107 seats
JVP         5 seats
TNA      15 seats
SLMC      1 seat
EPDP      1 seat

UNP will need an alliance with TNA for majority.

[jaichind]

Over 11.16 million votes were cast.  This means turnout was around 74.5% compared to 61.26% in 2010.

[jaichind]

UPFA/Rajapaksa  actually did pretty well considering that it does not have the state machinery behind it and turnout was very high.  In terms of total votes UPFA only got slightly less votes than in 2010.  Had turnout been something like 60%-65% UPFA would have won this election.  UPFA's main mistake was not trying to get JVP to join it in an alliance like in 2004 and 2005.  But I guess for that to take place Rajapaksa has to be in the background which is a no go from his point of view.

[politicus]

God, FPTP probably Fs up Sri Lanka more than any other country. The seat totals are never anywhere near proportional.

There are 225 seats and 196 will elected in 22 multi-member constituencies using PR, while the remaining  29 seats will be allocated in proportion to the parties share of the national vote.

Some parties contest in some constituencies as part of an alliance and in others under their own banner.

[politicus]

UPFA's main mistake was not trying to get JVP to join it in an alliance like in 2004 and 2005.  But I guess for that to take place Rajapaksa has to be in the background which is a no go from his point of view.

They tried, but were turned down.

[jaichind]

Turnout is recorded at 77.66%

[jaichind]

Turns out PR is

UPFA   12
UNP     13
JVP        2
TNA       2

Which means total seat count will be

UPFA    95 seats
UNP    106 seats
JVP         6 seats
TNA      16 seats
SLMC      1 seat
EPDP      1 seat

[jaichind]

UPFA's main mistake was not trying to get JVP to join it in an alliance like in 2004 and 2005.  But I guess for that to take place Rajapaksa has to be in the background which is a no go from his point of view.

They tried, but were turned down.

I actually take back what I said.  I looked at the results district by district and I could only find one district, Puttalam, where had JVP joined UPFA it would have changed the seat distribution where UPFA would gain one seat from UNP.  Meaning the district results which are

UPFA  42.4%    83 seats
UNP    45.7%    93 seats
JVP      4.9%      4 seat
TNA     4.6%     14 seat
SLMC   0.4%       1 seat
EPDP    0.3%      1 seat

would have been but if JVP had merged into UPFA and all votes transferred to UPFA

UPFA  47.3%    88 seats
UNP    45.7%    92 seats
TNA     4.6%     14 seat
SLMC   0.4%       1 seat
EPDP    0.3%      1 seat

So instead of total seat count being

UPFA    95 seats
UNP    106 seats
JVP         6 seats
TNA      16 seats
SLMC      1 seat
EPDP      1 seat

it would have been

UPFA   102 seats
UNP    105 seats
TNA      16 seats
SLMC      1 seat
EPDP      1 seat

Where UPFA would have won less seat even as they won more votes than UNP.

It is interesting how effective the UNP vote distribution was.  To be fair it was very close in several districts.   UPFA came close on its own to winning an extra seat in Batticaloa and Jaffna from TNA if it only got slightly higher vote share.  If JVP had been part of UPFA there were also a couple of districts where it would have been close to grab an extra seat from UNP.  Still the UNP vote share distribution was very  effective as they won seats in every  district so there was no wasted vote.

[politicus]

Turns out PR is

UPFA   12
UNP     13
JVP        2
TNA       2

Which means total seat count will be

UPFA    95 seats
UNPF   106 seats
JVP         6 seats
TNA      16 seats
SLMC      1 seat
EPDP      1 seat

The 106 seats are for United National Front (UNF), not UNP alone. They then furthermore had the United National Front for Good Governance as a front org.

[Famous Mortimer]

Who does the Eelam People's Democratic Party back now?

[politicus]

Who does the Eelam People's Democratic Party back now?

UPFA/Rajapaksa

[jaichind]

Who does the Eelam People's Democratic Party back now?

UPFA/Rajapaksa

I thought they were always for UPFA.  Not sure why they ran separately this time.  I guess without central government support they figured they have to distance themselves from Rajapaksa.  It is surprising how well they did in Jaffna given the perception that they are Tamil collaborators for the regime.

[politicus]

JVP accuses Sirisena of tampering with the Constitution to create additional ministries - there are 48 in the new government. According to the Constitution there are only allowed to be max 30 cabinet ministries, but if it is a "national government" there can be more, but such a government is supposed to incl. all parti, not just the two big alliances.