Greek parliamentary election predictions thread (user search)
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Author Topic: Greek parliamentary election predictions thread  (Read 4870 times)
politicus
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« on: January 23, 2015, 06:58:07 AM »

Post your predictions here.
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politicus
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« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2015, 07:06:19 AM »


Put your money where your mouth is laddie. There must be some bookie giving 350:1 on that bet.
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politicus
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« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2015, 07:10:48 AM »

36% SYRIZA
30% ND
8% Potami
6% XA
5.5% KKE
4.5% PASOK
3% ANEL
2.5% Kinima
1.3% LAOS
1.2% DIMAR
2.0% Others
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politicus
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« Reply #3 on: January 24, 2015, 05:06:30 AM »
« Edited: January 24, 2015, 05:22:17 AM by Charlotte Hebdo »

35% True Leftists (Atlasian Labor Party flavor) Syriza
30% Useless Right-Wing Stooges ND
7% Freakish Nazis XA
6% Useless Moderate Heroes Potami
5% True Leftists (M.E.L.S. flavor) ?? KKE
5% Mega-Super-Ultra-Useless Jimintō-Except-Left-Leaning Pasok
4% Maybe-Less-Useless-But-Kookier Right-Wing Stooges ANEL (the most useless of them all IMO) 3%
LOLPapandreou MDS
5% Other

I think I guessed it. I doubt Golden Dawn will go that high after being exposed as an actual criminal organization and with lots of other right wing choices. Having Pasok as more useless than ANEL is harsh indeed and I think Potami will turn out to be quite a useful party. They will develop into a Social Liberal party with focus on civil rights and good governance and Greece needs a moderate centre-right party to balance ND and preventing them from skewing too far to the right (by offering an alternative to moderate centre-right voters if they do).
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politicus
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« Reply #4 on: January 24, 2015, 06:33:48 AM »


I haven't been following the Greece general thread particularly avidly. Could you explain what's so awful about ANEL that they're more useless than PASOK?

(M.E.L.S. stands for 'Marx, Engels, Lenin, Stalin', incidentally. Mels was used as one of the various ridiculous constructed first names that Soviet citizens sometimes gave their children.)

1) I made a presentation of ANEL in the election thread mainly based on the view of two Greek politologists:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=204845.225

I have seen nothing that cotradicts their evaluation.

2) There is a party in Botswana (of all places) called MELS, so as an Southern Africa politics nerd I know it well.
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politicus
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« Reply #5 on: January 25, 2015, 09:12:41 AM »

I am closing this thread since we now have an exit poll.
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politicus
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« Reply #6 on: January 25, 2015, 08:53:40 PM »
« Edited: January 27, 2015, 09:01:02 AM by Charlotte Hebdo »

Reopened

Result:

http://ekloges.ypes.gr/current/v/public/index.html?lang=en#{%22cls%22:%22party%22,%22params%22:{%22id%22:15}}

Most of us were a bit off... Wink

Final result:

Syriza   36,34 % (149)
ND      27,81 % (76)
XA      6,28 % (17)
Potami   6,05 % (17)
KKE       5,47 % (15)
ANEL    4,75 % (13)
Pasok   4,68 % (13)
-------
MDS      2,46 %
Union of Centrists   1,79 %
Teleia - Apostolos Gkletsos 1,77 %
LAOS   1,03 %
Antarsya   0,64 %
DIMAR   0,49 %
Communist Party of Greece (Marxist–Leninist) 0,13 %

36% SYRIZA (correct)
30% ND (2% too high)
8% Potami (2% too high)
6% XA (correct)
5.5% KKE (correct)
4.5% PASOK (correct)
3% ANEL (2% too low)
2.5% Kinima (correct)
1.3% LAOS (0.3% too high)
1.2% DIMAR (0.7% too low)
2.0% Others (2.5% too low)

Overestimated Potami, ND and DIMAR and underestimated ANELand (especially) Others. Main mistake was totally disregarding Union of Centrists, which also led me to overestimate Potami. Also thought ND would get more of ANELs old voters with their right wing turn.
Still, I got Syriza, KKE, Pasok, Golden Dawn right and LAOS almost right). Not too bad.
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