An Open Seat in Vermont... Could be a tough race.
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better:
Sanders is a defacto Democrat. The national Democrats will simply treat him as no different from Casey or the candidate here. While there might be a Democratic primary if anyone does run, like in the past that candidate will be a total joke who will get no support from the national party and will be no more of a factor than the Libertarian in most races.
Douglas is becoming even more overrated than Steele. Considering that as pointed out above:
1-Sanders did almost 10 points better than him last time, and there's no question as to who's more popular
2-He is still in a weaker position than both Tony Knowles and William Weld. And those two had nothing to lose by running. He does.
AuH2O:
Um no. Weld was running against an incumbent; this is an open seat in a less machine-oriented state.
Sanders is leftist but he quite simply is not a Democrat. Whether that winds up mattering is unclear, but certainly whatever organizational benefits come with being part of the DNC will not be there for him.
There actually is question who is more popular heads-up. Clavelle wasn't THAT bad and he was running a serious campaign; Sanders did not face real opposition. Also note that a Democrat in his House race fetched 7%, so I would expect anywhere from 5-8% to be ciphered in the Senate race.
If I had to bet even odds, I would take Douglas. If anyone is overrated here it's Sanders.
Joe Republic:
What an odd race. One on side is the moderate Republican governor in a strongly Democratic state who is having his arm twisted by his party to give up his position and take a gamble on a senate bid. On the other side is a left-wing lunatic who mutually doesn't sit well in the Democratic party, but would probably be endorsed by them anyway. I've said it before and I'll say it again, Vermont is weird.
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better:
Quote from: AuH2O on April 22, 2005, 11:24:42 AM
Um no. Weld was running against an incumbent; this is an open seat in a less machine-oriented state.
Sanders is leftist but he quite simply is not a Democrat. Whether that winds up mattering is unclear, but certainly whatever organizational benefits come with being part of the DNC will not be there for him.
There actually is question who is more popular heads-up. Clavelle wasn't THAT bad and he was running a serious campaign; Sanders did not face real opposition. Also note that a Democrat in his House race fetched 7%, so I would expect anywhere from 5-8% to be ciphered in the Senate race.
If I had to bet even odds, I would take Douglas. If anyone is overrated here it's Sanders.
Sanders is basically the incumbent as he already holds a statewide Congressional position. And yes Douglas does too, but it's pretty obvious by looking at many races in the past to see that legislative and gubernatorial races are completely different.
If Sanders was so overrated and vulnerable, you would've expected the Republicans to try to beat him in the House, or at least put up a serious campaign against him.
MHS2002:
Quote from: Nation of Ulysses on April 22, 2005, 11:10:31 AM
Quote from: Attorney General MHS2002 on April 22, 2005, 11:08:03 AM
Hmm...I hope Douglas runs and can at least force the DSCC to put some money in the state. Still Sanders' seat to lose, methinks.
Keep in mind how large Vermont is. It would hardly be a drain.
Good point, although I suppose any effort by the Dems in VT is better than none at all (from my perspective, at least).
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