Here we can contrast elections

[SingingAnalyst]

If anyone has any doubt that the Presidential Election of 1976 is ancient history for all practical purposes:

Carter 1976, Obama 2012    

Carter 1976, Obama twice  red
Carter 1976, Obama once pink
Carter 1976, Obama never yellow
Ford 1976, Obama twice white
Ford 1976, Obama once light blue
Ford 1976, Obama never blue

Quite true; note how most of the map is white or yellow. Even of the red states, OH was extremely close in '76, NY was close in '76, and FL was close in all 3 years. The only states that were strongly Dem all 3 times were MA, RI and DC.

[SingingAnalyst]

The Eisenhower - Obama analogy holds up even if we extend our analysis to young voters and minority groups--provided we focus on 1956 rather than 1952. In 1956 Ike was popular among voters under 30 and Black voters, as was, of course, Obama. In 1952 however, at the height of the Red Scare, most of the pro-Eisenhower (or perhaps anti-Stevenson) vote was older and white, like McCain's in 2008.

[SingingAnalyst]

The Eisenhower - Obama analogy holds up even if we extend our analysis to young voters and minority groups--provided we focus on 1956 rather than 1952. In 1956 Ike was popular among voters under 30 and Black voters, as was, of course, Obama. In 1952 however, at the height of the Red Scare, most of the pro-Eisenhower (or perhaps anti-Stevenson) vote was older and white, like McCain's in 2008.

Eisenhower lost the black vote in 1956 by a substantial margin, he didn't even crack 40% despite winning the NPV by 57%. Also, do you have any data showing Eisenhower's relative popularity amongst young voters, or is this just an assumption based off "Youth for Eisenhower" or something of the sort?

All I have to go by is Gallup.

In 1956, Ike won 39% of "nonwhite" voters, up from 21% in 1952. In 1956, Ike won 57% of voters under 30, up from 49% in 1952.

[SingingAnalyst]

At this point I can "retrodict" (yes, I coined that word for my use here) an election that once had a chance of happening and now seems unlikely. This is how the 2020 election looked in contrast to those of Eisenhower and Obama based on match-ups in the middle of May 2020. Since then the news for President Trump has all been bad due to his bungling of COVID-19 and of mass protests involving dissent at police brutality. Polling was stable in the first part of 2020, but it is not now in early June. I do not see things getting better for the President. Things are spiraling away from his best hopes.

This may be relevant to 2024 or 2028 -- but no longer 2020. It did not look good for Trump this year. Trump was going to lose his three barest wins of 2020, gain nothing that he lost in 2016, and lose Arizona. Anything shaky would be assigned to Trump, but I saw Biden winning 289 electoral votes and the election.

This map is not as neat as that of the original Eisenhower-Obama overlay.

Electoral votes can be ignored, as those are for 2008.   

 
gray -- did not vote in 1952 or 1956
white -- Eisenhower twice, Obama twice, Biden 2020
red -- Eisenhower twice, Obama twice, Trump 2020
pink -- Stevenson twice, Obama once, Trump 2020
orange -- Eisenhower twice, Obama never, Biden 2020
deep blue -- Republican all five elections
light blue -- Republican all but 2012 (I assume that greater Omaha went for Ike twice)
light green -- Eisenhower once, Stevenson once, Obama never
dark green -- Stevenson twice, Obama never, Trump 2020
pink -- Stevenson twice, Obama once, Trump 2020

No state voted Democratic all four times, so no state is in deep red.
 

[/quote]
All those colors! I'm curious, do you still think a 289-249 Biden win (2016+AZ+MI+PA+WI) is likely? Because I do. In that case, we would have, comparing 2012 to 2020:

Obama - Trump states: FL, IA, ME-2, OH
Romney - Biden states: AZ

[SingingAnalyst]

If anyone has any doubt that the Presidential Election of 1976 is ancient history for all practical purposes:

Carter 1976, Biden 2020  

Carter 1976, Biden  red
Carter 1976, Trump 2020 yellow
Ford 1976, Biden white
Ford 1976, Trump 2020 blue

Excellent map. The white and yellow states combined have a clear majority of the electoral votes. As for the blue states, except for Iowa (several times) and IN and MT (once each), none have voted Dem since 1964.

It becomes even more striking when one looks at the state in which Ford had his greatest numerical majority (MI, which voted Republican only once in the last 8 elections) and Carter had his (GA, which has voted Democratic only once in the last 7 elections). Ironically, GA may well vote left of MI in the near future-- but that's another story.

[SingingAnalyst]

Revised 2012-2020 swing map:

Metric: Biden 2020 % minus Obama 2012 %
National swing: +0.33
Key:
+7 or more 90% Red
+1 30% Red
0 30% Ind.
-1 30% Blue
-7 or more 90% Blue
Observations: I am amazed how many states I did not need to recolor. That is, how many states won by Biden by 50-60% increased by 3, how many states won by Trump by 50-60% decreased by 3, etc. Also see clear regional patterns as well as a sharp divergence in ME and NE congressional districts.