Safe states that could become competitive in 10-20 years

[Roll Roons]

My definition of a safe state is any that was decided by a double-digit margin in 2020. And in both directions - blue states that could get redder or red states that could get bluer.

[dw93]

Oregon and New Mexico are the most likely "Safe D" states to become competitive while Utah, Tennessee and maybe Kansas are "Safe R" states that could be competitive.

[sting in the rafters]

Safe D to competitive:NM if the GOP moves to bring more socially conservative Hispanic voters into the fold. Maybe Illinois becomes tighter if the rural Midwest truly starts voting like the rural South, but Chicagoland alone should keep it blue no matter what.

Safe R to competitive: TN if Nashville area grows? Maybe NE-01 if Lincoln every becomes big enough. Idk, It's hard to see the GOP going below the 125 map.

[Non Swing Voter]

My definition of a safe state is any that was decided by a double-digit margin in 2020. And in both directions - blue states that could get redder or red states that could get bluer.

Not to get too off topic but it's amazing that the GOP is even competitive nationally when Dems start off with 210 safe electoral votes.  I am not sure I see any of those safe states becoming competitive without a realignment. 

For Oregon to be competitive the GOP would have to do way better among urban and suburban voters than it currently does.

For New Mexico, they'd have to improve drastically among hispanics.

I don't see either of those things happening in 10-20 years without the coalitions majorly changing.

[EastwoodS]

In 20 years

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Safe R states: I can see Alaska making some big jumps in the next few years. Same with Utah.

Safe D states: Wouldn't be surprised to see New Mexico become a swing state again (If the Hispanic trend is actually real and not a one-time thing). Highly doubt it though.


And sorry, no matter how many times it gets brought up in recent years, I just can't see how Purple Oregon happens in the next 10-20 years. It sounds as much of a pipe dream as Purple Mississippi.

[Adam Griffin]

Mississippi (not sure how I missed Alaska on the map) is the best single R option among safe states defined by OP.

New Mexico is probably the best D option.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Safe R to competitive: Alaska, Kansas, NE-01
Safe D to competitive: Connecticut, New Mexico, Rhode Island

[Xing]

Safe D states: I suppose NM, but I don’t think it’s a given, since it still didn’t trend Republican in 2020 despite the swing among Latinos. Beyond that, maybe one of DE/RI, but that’s probably a stretch (less of one than OR, though, lol.)

Safe R states: AK is the obvious one, since it was just barely a double digit win for Trump, and has consistently trended Democratic. Maybe KS further down the line. I don’t see MS/SC becoming competitive soon, though if I had to choose one of those, perhaps SC in the more distant future.

[ultraviolet]

Alaska and Delaware are the only ones I can see in 10 years. 20 years is really far out, but maybe RI, CT, and UT. I’m actually pretty confident that Utah will be competitive in 20 years, maybe even less.

Not New Mexico though. It still trended left even with the large Latino shift (yes Gary Johnson had an effect, but just looking at the results I wouldn’t have found them concerning).

[MT Treasurer]

This is really tough, as there’s really not a large group of states that don’t "fit into" their party's broader, national coalition right now. If I had to pick three, I’d say AK, UT, and RI (in that order) are the most likely ones, with NM*, MO, SC, MT, KS, NE, DE, TN, VT, HI (in about that order) as potential candidates in the more distant future, with some (MT) more likely than others (DE).

*I do agree that that state's potential R trend is a little overhyped, though. Southern NM could trend heavily to the right and it could still be a CO-type situation where the more urban/artsy/college-educated parts in the North outvote it, even if by a considerably more narrow margin than in CO. That said, I do think the votes are there for it to potentially become competitive.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Currently safe R states: Mississippi possibly, generational turnover makes whites go from 80-85% R to 60-65% R.  It's the most polarized state by race.

AK and KS are likely to become more competitive, SC has remained surprisingly rigid compared to expectations.

on the safe Dem side I think Vermont is an underrated choice, due to it's tiny population/demographics/generational turnover.  DE and NM are likely to narrow up in a decade or two.  I don't think IL/OR/CT/NJ will ever not be safe in this timeframe, although Rhode Island might.

[junior chįmp]

Utah could very well be the Dem version of West Virginia. The generational gap in Utah is insane: