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March 08, 2021, 01:17:31 AM
Talk Elections
Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
Gubernatorial/State Elections
2021 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls
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KY-Governor/Gravis Marketing: Conway (D) leads 4 GOPers by 3-13 points
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Topic: KY-Governor/Gravis Marketing: Conway (D) leads 4 GOPers by 3-13 points (Read 5933 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
Posts: 57,496
Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
KY-Governor/Gravis Marketing: Conway (D) leads 4 GOPers by 3-13 points
«
on:
January 16, 2015, 03:23:37 PM »
40-37 Conway/Comer
44-36 Conway/Bevin
43-34 Conway/Heiner
43-30 Conway/Bailey
http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/kentucky-poll-democrat-conway-leads-gop-contenders-in-governors-race
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#NeverSinema
SawxDem
Atlas Icon
Posts: 10,813
Re: KY-Governor/Gravis Marketing: Conway (D) leads 4 GOPers by 3-13 points
«
Reply #1 on:
January 16, 2015, 03:24:36 PM »
Eh, still predicting Comer by Paul-esque margins.
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Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
Posts: 19,338
Re: KY-Governor/Gravis Marketing: Conway (D) leads 4 GOPers by 3-13 points
«
Reply #2 on:
January 16, 2015, 03:29:34 PM »
This was about where Beshear was in early 2011, IIRC.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
Atlas Legend
Posts: 48,539
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
Re: KY-Governor/Gravis Marketing: Conway (D) leads 4 GOPers by 3-13 points
«
Reply #3 on:
January 16, 2015, 03:38:47 PM »
Conway nxt governor of KY.
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
Posts: 3,643
Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00
Re: KY-Governor/Gravis Marketing: Conway (D) leads 4 GOPers by 3-13 points
«
Reply #4 on:
January 16, 2015, 03:40:43 PM »
Conway would be a great governor. But with KY I don't know what to expect.
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Lincoln Councillor Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
Posts: 24,122
Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 0.35
Re: KY-Governor/Gravis Marketing: Conway (D) leads 4 GOPers by 3-13 points
«
Reply #5 on:
January 16, 2015, 04:54:26 PM »
Toss-Up for now, but I'm worried that this will eventually become the bad-for-democrats version of the 2014 Michigan Senate Race - a race that looks really competitive early on, only to be a blowout come election day.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
Posts: 28,507
Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
Re: KY-Governor/Gravis Marketing: Conway (D) leads 4 GOPers by 3-13 points
«
Reply #6 on:
January 16, 2015, 05:59:36 PM »
Quote from: Miles on January 16, 2015, 03:29:34 PM
This was about where Beshear was in early 2011, IIRC.
Beshear was also an established name, a strong campaigner, and faced subpar opponents. Whatever you say about Comer, Bevin, or even Heiner, they aren't entirely subpar.
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RFayette
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 9,304
Re: KY-Governor/Gravis Marketing: Conway (D) leads 4 GOPers by 3-13 points
«
Reply #7 on:
January 16, 2015, 07:13:29 PM »
After the ALG fiasco in the KY Senate race, with SUSA showing a Grimes lead a month before the election, I am skeptical.
Undecideds seem to be very GOP in KY.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
Atlas Legend
Posts: 48,539
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
Re: KY-Governor/Gravis Marketing: Conway (D) leads 4 GOPers by 3-13 points
«
Reply #8 on:
January 17, 2015, 07:37:17 AM »
Quote from: RFayette on January 16, 2015, 07:13:29 PM
After the ALG fiasco in the KY Senate race, with SUSA showing a Grimes lead a month before the election, I am skeptical.
Undecideds seem to be very GOP in KY.
Dems were a month before the election, on the verge of winning the midterms, but a week out, the tide turned against them on terrorism and elbola.
I doubt that Conway has anything to worry about, especially that.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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Posts: 13,135
Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74
Re: KY-Governor/Gravis Marketing: Conway (D) leads 4 GOPers by 3-13 points
«
Reply #9 on:
January 17, 2015, 10:57:01 AM »
Quote from: OC on January 17, 2015, 07:37:17 AM
Quote from: RFayette on January 16, 2015, 07:13:29 PM
After the ALG fiasco in the KY Senate race, with SUSA showing a Grimes lead a month before the election, I am skeptical.
Undecideds seem to be very GOP in KY.
Dems were a month before the election, on the verge of winning the midterms, but a week out, the tide turned against them on terrorism and elbola.
I doubt that Conway has anything to worry about, especially that.
This is just blatantly false. They may have salvaged Tillis at most. You lost Kentucky by 15.5%! No prayer in Iowa. That doesn't happen in a month. The GOP was going to take the Senate all along. You are delusional if you think this was due to 11th hour issues. I understand thinking it at the time due to polling and wanting to be a little hackish, but there's no way you can say that in hindsight.
Brownback won by 4. LePage (despite Cutler dropping out with a week to go) and Hogan won by 5! These are not insignificant margins. It was pretty clear right away. On the governor side, maybe you would have salvaged Coakley without ebola. I'd like to think the people in Mass are smart enough not to buy into that like the ignorant parts of the country. That's just MoV issues not winner.
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Mister Mets
YaBB God
Posts: 4,067
Re: KY-Governor/Gravis Marketing: Conway (D) leads 4 GOPers by 3-13 points
«
Reply #10 on:
January 17, 2015, 11:25:29 AM »
Quote from: Wulfric on January 16, 2015, 04:54:26 PM
Toss-Up for now, but I'm worried that this will eventually become the bad-for-democrats version of the 2014 Michigan Senate Race - a race that looks really competitive early on, only to be a blowout come election day.
Conway seems to be a much better campaigner, so he probably would do better. My sense of Michigan was that a weak Republican just couldn't handle a high-profile race.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/10/did-republicans-blow-the-michigan-senate-race/381399/
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 31,939
Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43
Re: KY-Governor/Gravis Marketing: Conway (D) leads 4 GOPers by 3-13 points
«
Reply #11 on:
January 17, 2015, 12:46:39 PM »
You can't completely dismiss these early leads, but it's telling he's at 40-44%...toss up/tilt R for now.
Edit: Oh, just realized this was Gravis. >Gravis
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
Atlas Legend
Posts: 48,539
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
Re: KY-Governor/Gravis Marketing: Conway (D) leads 4 GOPers by 3-13 points
«
Reply #12 on:
January 17, 2015, 02:50:44 PM »
Quote from: smilo on January 17, 2015, 10:57:01 AM
Quote from: OC on January 17, 2015, 07:37:17 AM
Quote from: RFayette on January 16, 2015, 07:13:29 PM
After the ALG fiasco in the KY Senate race, with SUSA showing a Grimes lead a month before the election, I am skeptical.
Undecideds seem to be very GOP in KY.
Dems were a month before the election, on the verge of winning the midterms, but a week out, the tide turned against them on terrorism and elbola.
I doubt that Conway has anything to worry about, especially that.
This is just blatantly false. They may have salvaged Tillis at most. You lost Kentucky by 15.5%! No prayer in Iowa. That doesn't happen in a month. The GOP was going to take the Senate all along. You are delusional if you think this was due to 11th hour issues. I understand thinking it at the time due to polling and wanting to be a little hackish, but there's no way you can say that in hindsight.
Brownback won by 4. LePage (despite Cutler dropping out with a week to go) and Hogan won by 5! These are not insignificant margins. It was pretty clear right away. On the governor side, maybe you would have salvaged Coakley without ebola. I'd like to think the people in Mass are smart enough not to buy into that like the ignorant parts of the country. That's just MoV issues not winne
Terriorism was the key issue in the election, and Ebola complicated the matter. In surveys, people disapproved the way Obama was handling it. I think the tea party wave that swept the country on Nov 4th, was in part due to that.
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Joshua
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,655
Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91
Re: KY-Governor/Gravis Marketing: Conway (D) leads 4 GOPers by 3-13 points
«
Reply #13 on:
January 17, 2015, 09:05:04 PM »
> Gravis
[/thread]
Logged
RFayette
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 9,304
Re: KY-Governor/Gravis Marketing: Conway (D) leads 4 GOPers by 3-13 points
«
Reply #14 on:
January 17, 2015, 10:18:29 PM »
Quote from: OC on January 17, 2015, 02:50:44 PM
Quote from: smilo on January 17, 2015, 10:57:01 AM
Quote from: OC on January 17, 2015, 07:37:17 AM
Quote from: RFayette on January 16, 2015, 07:13:29 PM
After the ALG fiasco in the KY Senate race, with SUSA showing a Grimes lead a month before the election, I am skeptical.
Undecideds seem to be very GOP in KY.
Dems were a month before the election, on the verge of winning the midterms, but a week out, the tide turned against them on terrorism and elbola.
I doubt that Conway has anything to worry about, especially that.
This is just blatantly false. They may have salvaged Tillis at most. You lost Kentucky by 15.5%! No prayer in Iowa. That doesn't happen in a month. The GOP was going to take the Senate all along. You are delusional if you think this was due to 11th hour issues. I understand thinking it at the time due to polling and wanting to be a little hackish, but there's no way you can say that in hindsight.
Brownback won by 4. LePage (despite Cutler dropping out with a week to go) and Hogan won by 5! These are not insignificant margins. It was pretty clear right away. On the governor side, maybe you would have salvaged Coakley without ebola. I'd like to think the people in Mass are smart enough not to buy into that like the ignorant parts of the country. That's just MoV issues not winne
Terriorism was the key issue in the election, and Ebola complicated the matter. In surveys, people disapproved the way Obama was handling it. I think the tea party wave that swept the country on Nov 4th, was in part due to that.
2014 was hardly a tea party wave. Most of the "tea-party backed" candidates couldn't get past the primaries.
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Icon
Posts: 19,561
Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: -7.48
Re: KY-Governor/Gravis Marketing: Conway (D) leads 4 GOPers by 3-13 points
«
Reply #15 on:
January 17, 2015, 10:25:28 PM »
Quote from: Joshua on January 17, 2015, 09:05:04 PM
> Gravis
[/thread]
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
Atlas Icon
Posts: 10,008
Re: KY-Governor/Gravis Marketing: Conway (D) leads 4 GOPers by 3-13 points
«
Reply #16 on:
January 18, 2015, 03:37:13 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on January 17, 2015, 10:25:28 PM
Quote from: Joshua on January 17, 2015, 09:05:04 PM
> Gravis
[/thread]
I thought 2014 put to rest the idea that pollsters deviating from the mean should automatically be discredited.
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
Posts: 3,643
Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00
Re: KY-Governor/Gravis Marketing: Conway (D) leads 4 GOPers by 3-13 points
«
Reply #17 on:
January 18, 2015, 03:43:18 PM »
Gravis can be like Ras: deviates from the mean, but in both ways. Some of their D-leaning polls included one showing Burke up five.
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Icon
Posts: 19,561
Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: -7.48
Re: KY-Governor/Gravis Marketing: Conway (D) leads 4 GOPers by 3-13 points
«
Reply #18 on:
January 18, 2015, 03:44:25 PM »
Quote from: SPC on January 18, 2015, 03:37:13 PM
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on January 17, 2015, 10:25:28 PM
Quote from: Joshua on January 17, 2015, 09:05:04 PM
> Gravis
[/thread]
I thought 2014 put to rest the idea that pollsters deviating from the mean should automatically be discredited.
It did, but Gravis specifically has proven to have a crappy track record over periods of time. I'm not saying the result of the poll isn't true, its just its hard to know since Gravis has been wrong so many times (in both directions).
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Oldiesfreak1854
Atlas Icon
Posts: 13,632
Re: KY-Governor/Gravis Marketing: Conway (D) leads 4 GOPers by 3-13 points
«
Reply #19 on:
January 18, 2015, 09:54:40 PM »
Quote from: RFayette on January 16, 2015, 07:13:29 PM
After the ALG fiasco in the KY Senate race, with SUSA showing a Grimes lead a month before the election, I am skeptical.
Undecideds seem to be very GOP in KY.
SurveyUSA is a terrible pollster. I remember during Christie's first few months as NJ governor, most polls had his job approval in the 50s, but they had him underwater by nearly 2-1.
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ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
Posts: 3,575
KY: Gravis Marketing: Conway Leading Republicans in Kentucky
«
Reply #20 on:
February 02, 2015, 10:56:49 PM »
New Poll:
Kentucky Governor by Gravis Marketing on 2015-01-06
Summary: D: 40%, R: 37%, U: 23%
Poll Source URL:
Full Poll Details
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Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Moderators
Atlas Star
Posts: 29,330
Re: KY-Governor/Gravis Marketing: Conway (D) leads 4 GOPers by 3-13 points
«
Reply #21 on:
February 16, 2015, 12:32:33 AM »
It's really early, but Kentucky is looking like the only close race of the three Gubernatorial elections this year.
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