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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Babette d'Interlaken, Apocrypha)
  Democrats Runner up nominiee vs Republican Runner up nominiee (search mode)
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Author Topic: Democrats Runner up nominiee vs Republican Runner up nominiee  (Read 9804 times)
Old School Republican
Computer89
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*****
Posts: 22,510


Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -0.10

P P P

« on: January 11, 2015, 10:43:07 pm »
« edited: January 18, 2019, 03:13:16 pm by Old School Republican »

In every election since 1968 Runner up nominee from each party run versus each other with maps. In years where there the nominee won over 80 % of vote in primaries ( Republicans: 1972, 1984,2004) (Democrats: 1996, 2012) have the runner up from one primary face the actual nominiee .

1968: Rockerfeller vs Mccarthy


Rockerfell-297
Mccarthy-197
Wallace-53
1972: Nixon vs Henry M Jackson


Nixon-438
Jackson -100

1976: Reagan vs Mo Udall

Reagan 293
Udall 243

1980: Bush vs Kennedy


Bush 365
Kennedy 173
1984: Reagan vs Hart


Reagan 519
Hart 20

1988: Dole vs Jesse Jackson


Dole 531
Jackson 7

1992: Buchanan vs Jerry Brown


Brown 462
Buchanan 63
Perot 13

1996: Buchanan vs Clinton


Clinton 516
Buchanan 22

2000: Mccain vs Bradley


Mccain 314
Bradley 224

2004: Bush vs Edwards


Bush 296
Edwards 242

2008: Romney vs Clinton


Clinton 384
Romney 154

2012: Santorum vs Obama


Obama 383
Santorum 185
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Old School Republican
Computer89
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,510


Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -0.10

P P P

« Reply #1 on: January 12, 2015, 12:19:57 am »

Ok fixed
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Old School Republican
Computer89
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,510


Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -0.10

P P P

« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2015, 08:32:57 pm »

Why do you have Rockefeller winning the south but losing New York? That's insane.

I fixed it and I forget about Wallace before.
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Old School Republican
Computer89
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,510


Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -0.10

P P P

« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2015, 08:36:04 pm »

2012



Pres. Barack Obama of Illinois and Vice Pres. Joe Biden of Delaware (Democratic): 434
Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin (Republican): 104

2008



Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York and Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware (Democratic Party): 362
Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska (Republican Party): 176

2004



Pres. George W. Bush of Texas and Vice Pres. Dick Cheney of Wyoming (Republican Party): 267
Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina and Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts (Democratic Party): 271

2000



Bill Bradley of New Jersey and Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut (Democratic Party): 195
Sen. John McCain of Arizona and Dick Cheney of Wyoming (Republican Party): 343

1996



Pres. Bill Clinton of Arkansas and Vice Pres. Al Gore of Tennessee (Democratic Party): 508
Pat Buchanan of Virginia and Jack Kemp of New York (Republican Party): 30

1992



Pat Buchanan of Virginia and Vice Pres. Dan Quayle of Indiana (Republican): 135
Jerry Brown of California and Sen. Al Gore of Tennessee (Democratic): 133
Ross Perot of Texas and James Stockdale of California (Independent): 270

How do you have Perot winning the Pacific coast over Jerry Brown
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Old School Republican
Computer89
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,510


Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -0.10

P P P

« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2015, 02:27:11 pm »

Part II: 1964-1972

1964: Johnson vs Rockefeller Rematch

Not one to take defeat lying down, Rocky tries again. This time he tries to appease the right-wingers by selecting Senator John Tower of Texas.

Johnson changes nothing, continuing the Civil Rights drum.



Lyndon Johnson (D-TX)/Hubert Humphrey (D-MN): 313 EV, 51.2% PV
Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY)/ John Tower (R-TX): 225 EV, 47.7% PV

Ultimately, the move to replace Dirksen with Tower ends up backfiring. Ultimately Tower's "State's Rights" stances just replace many vital and liberal Northeastern states (and California) with an unprecedented grab of some Southern States and reclamation of Western states.

1968: Rockefeller vs McCarthy vs Wallace

With Vietnam going as it was IRL, and another sort of close loss that many strategists simply attributed to LNJ's muscle. Nelson Rockefeller decided yet again to go for it. Trying not to upset the Northeast this time, he picks the centre-right Spiro T. Agnew of Maryland

For the Democrats, it pretty much was the same mess IRL...except Hubert Humphrey was keen to sit this one out. This left it to a drawn out race between Senator Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota, Senator Robert F. Kennedy of New York, and Senator Edmund Muskie of Maine. RFK seemed to have the nomination in grasp,...until tragically, he was assassinated. This left the race to Muskie and McCarthy. Eventually a deal was made between the two that Muskie could be running mate if he stepped down and allowed McCarthy the nomination.

Meanwhile George Wallace of Alabama decided to contest integration and tossed himself into the ring, in hopes of being the kingmaker. For running mate, he chose Ezra Taft Benson in hopes of gaining a state or two outside the South and wooing over other conservative Republicans




Governor Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY)/Governor Spiro Agnew (R-MD): 300 EV,
Senator Eugene McCarthy (D-MN)/Senator Edmund Muskie (D-ME): 153 EV,
Governor George Wallace (AI-AL)/Fmr. Secretary of Agriculture Ezra Taft Benson (AI-UT): 85 EV, 18. 2% PV

Ultimately Rockefeller got what he wanted, not by doing so much of anything as simply painting Wallace and McCarthy as extremists. Most notable here is that he took less of the South (but got Texas) and that the Mormon states ended up being surprisingly competitive rather than quietly Republican.

1972: H. Jackson vs Nixon

Unfortunately, in spite of going most of his presidency with high approval ratings, Rocky was discovered to have had an affair and in spite of mostly handling the whole thing with more integrity than expected,...it didn't stop a coalition of bitter liberal Democrats and moralistic conservatives from ganging up and successfully impeaching him. As for Agnew, the tax evasion scandal still happened. So in 1971, SoS Richard Nixon succeeded Rockefeller and from there pretty much followed all the foreign policies he did IRL. He chose House Minority Leader Gerald Ford as running mate of the bat.

Reeling from 1968, and keen to find someone more palatable, the Democrats nominated populist neocon Senator Henry "Scoop" Jackson. He in turn chose former Governor Terry Sanford of North Carolina.



President Richard Nixon (R-CA)/ House Minority Leader Gerald Ford (R-MI): 312 EV, 52.2% PV
Senator Henry Jackson (D-WA)/ Fmr. Governor Terry Sanford (D-NC): 226 EV, 46.9% PV

Ultimately, Nixon proves unstoppable on the foreign front and the real divide is on domestic policies. While liberals and older New Dealer Southerners are moved by the Jackson/Sanford rhetoric, ultimately it doesn't counter the Southern Strategy enough.


George Wallace and Henry M Jackson dont do as well as in those maps
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Old School Republican
Computer89
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,510


Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -0.10

P P P

« Reply #5 on: January 18, 2015, 12:12:49 am »

My maps werent timeline based as yours were
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Old School Republican
Computer89
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,510


Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -0.10

P P P

« Reply #6 on: January 18, 2015, 05:59:12 pm »

2012 should be Rick Santorum v Randall Terry.

Obama won 89 % of the primary vote
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Old School Republican
Computer89
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,510


Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -0.10

P P P

« Reply #7 on: November 30, 2016, 08:09:39 pm »

Bump
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