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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Should've left Pangolins alone, Apocrypha)
  Democrats Runner up nominiee vs Republican Runner up nominiee (search mode)
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Author Topic: Democrats Runner up nominiee vs Republican Runner up nominiee  (Read 9789 times)
L.D. Smith
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« on: January 16, 2015, 11:40:24 pm »
« edited: January 17, 2015, 11:47:02 am by L.D. Smith, Knight of Appalachia »

Here's my guess, running mates are not the same but complementary and 3rds are purple not green. And I'll have scenarios here just as I did concerning my own thread which pit the actual running mates against each other.

Part I: 1952-1960

1952: Taft vs Kefauver

With Truman declining to run for a second term, the race becomes wide-open. And despite skepticism from party bosses, maverick Senator Estes Kefauver manages this time to make it. In an effort to appease these bosses, Kefauver selects squeaky-clean freshman Governor Adlai Stevenson of Illinois.

Meanwhile on the other end, conservatives in the GOP manage to unite in reaction to Truman and his foreign policies and nominate the aging Senator Robert Taft of Ohio, who picks the fairly liberal Governor of California, Earl Warren as a ticket-balancer.



Senator Robert Taft (R-OH)/ Governor Earl Warren (R-CA): 282 EV, 49.2% PV
Senator Estes Kefauver (D-TN)/ Governor Adlai Stevenson (D-IL): 249 EV, 46.6% PV


Though the race is close, Taft does a much better job impressing upon the Northern elite and West Coast conservatives, which more than makes up for any gains in the Southwest by Kefauver

1956: Eisenhower vs Kefauver

Unfortunately, Taft dies in office...which leaves Warren in charge. But luckily for the conservative base, Warren declines to stay-on in favor of other political pursuits. Instead, war hero Dwight D. Eisenhower fills the void, and to appease the base and make a statement on civil rights, senior California Senator William Knowland is chosen.

Kefauver, bitter over his narrow loss, decides to run again. Trying to also make a statement on Civil Rights, he selects  Governor G. Mennen Williams of Michigan as running mate



General Dwight Eisenhower (R-PA)/ Senator William Knowland (R-CA): 391 EV, 57.8% PV
Senator Estes Kefauver (D-TN)/Governor G. Mennen Williams (D-MI): 140 EV, 41.9% PV

Ultimately he ends up hardly better than Stevenson IRL, doing slightly better in the South and retaining Michigan.

1960: Johnson vs Rockefeller

Unfortunately, popular as Eisenhower was, he also ended up kicking the bucket. This left Knowland in charge, which did not sit well with the moderates and liberals of the Republican party. Ultimately the non-conservatives rallied around Governor Nelson A. Rockefeller of New York. And after a heated primary and convention, Knowland was successfully replaced.

The Democrats also had a very scattered nomination process, between JFK, Humphrey, Senate Majority Leader Lyndon Johnson of Texas, Smathers Senator Stuart Symington of Missouri, and Governor Adlai Stevenson of Illinois. But thanks to some wily tactics, Lyndon Johnson ended up taking the nomination.



Senator Lyndon Johnson (D-TX)/ Senator Hubert Humphrey (D-MN): 280 EV, 49.7% PV
Governor Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY)/Senator Everett Dirksen (R-IL): 257 EV, 49.6% PV

Ultimately thanks to a very skilled campaign, Johnson beats Rockefeller. Rockefeller however does give him a run by managing to hold onto California, Oregon, and the Northeast.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2015, 11:44:54 am »
« Edited: January 17, 2015, 11:54:31 am by L.D. Smith, Knight of Appalachia »

Part II: 1964-1972

1964: Johnson vs Rockefeller Rematch

Not one to take defeat lying down, Rocky tries again. This time he tries to appease the right-wingers by selecting Senator John Tower of Texas.

Johnson changes nothing, continuing the Civil Rights drum.



Lyndon Johnson (D-TX)/Hubert Humphrey (D-MN): 313 EV, 51.2% PV
Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY)/ John Tower (R-TX): 225 EV, 47.7% PV

Ultimately, the move to replace Dirksen with Tower ends up backfiring. Ultimately Tower's "State's Rights" stances just replace many vital and liberal Northeastern states (and California) with an unprecedented grab of some Southern States and reclamation of Western states.

1968: Rockefeller vs McCarthy vs Wallace

With Vietnam going as it was IRL, and another sort of close loss that many strategists simply attributed to LNJ's muscle. Nelson Rockefeller decided yet again to go for it. Trying not to upset the Northeast this time, he picks the centre-right Spiro T. Agnew of Maryland

For the Democrats, it pretty much was the same mess IRL...except Hubert Humphrey was keen to sit this one out. This left it to a drawn out race between Senator Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota, Senator Robert F. Kennedy of New York, and Senator Edmund Muskie of Maine. RFK seemed to have the nomination in grasp,...until tragically, he was assassinated. This left the race to Muskie and McCarthy. Eventually a deal was made between the two that Muskie could be running mate if he stepped down and allowed McCarthy the nomination.

Meanwhile George Wallace of Alabama decided to contest integration and tossed himself into the ring, in hopes of being the kingmaker. For running mate, he chose Ezra Taft Benson in hopes of gaining a state or two outside the South and wooing over other conservative Republicans




Governor Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY)/Governor Spiro Agnew (R-MD): 300 EV,
Senator Eugene McCarthy (D-MN)/Senator Edmund Muskie (D-ME): 153 EV,
Governor George Wallace (AI-AL)/Fmr. Secretary of Agriculture Ezra Taft Benson (AI-UT): 85 EV, 18. 2% PV

Ultimately Rockefeller got what he wanted, not by doing so much of anything as simply painting Wallace and McCarthy as extremists. Most notable here is that he took less of the South (but got Texas) and that the Mormon states ended up being surprisingly competitive rather than quietly Republican.

1972: H. Jackson vs Nixon

Unfortunately, in spite of going most of his presidency with high approval ratings, Rocky was discovered to have had an affair and in spite of mostly handling the whole thing with more integrity than expected,...it didn't stop a coalition of bitter liberal Democrats and moralistic conservatives from ganging up and successfully impeaching him. As for Agnew, the tax evasion scandal still happened. So in 1971, SoS Richard Nixon succeeded Rockefeller and from there pretty much followed all the foreign policies he did IRL. He chose House Minority Leader Gerald Ford as running mate of the bat.

Reeling from 1968, and keen to find someone more palatable, the Democrats nominated populist neocon Senator Henry "Scoop" Jackson. He in turn chose former Governor Terry Sanford of North Carolina.



President Richard Nixon (R-CA)/ House Minority Leader Gerald Ford (R-MI): 312 EV, 52.2% PV
Senator Henry Jackson (D-WA)/ Fmr. Governor Terry Sanford (D-NC): 226 EV, 46.9% PV

Ultimately, Nixon proves unstoppable on the foreign front and the real divide is on domestic policies. While liberals and older New Dealer Southerners are moved by the Jackson/Sanford rhetoric, ultimately it doesn't counter the Southern Strategy enough.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2015, 04:27:08 pm »

Part II: 1964-1972

1964: Johnson vs Rockefeller Rematch

Not one to take defeat lying down, Rocky tries again. This time he tries to appease the right-wingers by selecting Senator John Tower of Texas.

Johnson changes nothing, continuing the Civil Rights drum.



Lyndon Johnson (D-TX)/Hubert Humphrey (D-MN): 313 EV, 51.2% PV
Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY)/ John Tower (R-TX): 225 EV, 47.7% PV

Ultimately, the move to replace Dirksen with Tower ends up backfiring. Ultimately Tower's "State's Rights" stances just replace many vital and liberal Northeastern states (and California) with an unprecedented grab of some Southern States and reclamation of Western states.

1968: Rockefeller vs McCarthy vs Wallace

With Vietnam going as it was IRL, and another sort of close loss that many strategists simply attributed to LNJ's muscle. Nelson Rockefeller decided yet again to go for it. Trying not to upset the Northeast this time, he picks the centre-right Spiro T. Agnew of Maryland

For the Democrats, it pretty much was the same mess IRL...except Hubert Humphrey was keen to sit this one out. This left it to a drawn out race between Senator Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota, Senator Robert F. Kennedy of New York, and Senator Edmund Muskie of Maine. RFK seemed to have the nomination in grasp,...until tragically, he was assassinated. This left the race to Muskie and McCarthy. Eventually a deal was made between the two that Muskie could be running mate if he stepped down and allowed McCarthy the nomination.

Meanwhile George Wallace of Alabama decided to contest integration and tossed himself into the ring, in hopes of being the kingmaker. For running mate, he chose Ezra Taft Benson in hopes of gaining a state or two outside the South and wooing over other conservative Republicans




Governor Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY)/Governor Spiro Agnew (R-MD): 300 EV,
Senator Eugene McCarthy (D-MN)/Senator Edmund Muskie (D-ME): 153 EV,
Governor George Wallace (AI-AL)/Fmr. Secretary of Agriculture Ezra Taft Benson (AI-UT): 85 EV, 18. 2% PV

Ultimately Rockefeller got what he wanted, not by doing so much of anything as simply painting Wallace and McCarthy as extremists. Most notable here is that he took less of the South (but got Texas) and that the Mormon states ended up being surprisingly competitive rather than quietly Republican.

1972: H. Jackson vs Nixon

Unfortunately, in spite of going most of his presidency with high approval ratings, Rocky was discovered to have had an affair and in spite of mostly handling the whole thing with more integrity than expected,...it didn't stop a coalition of bitter liberal Democrats and moralistic conservatives from ganging up and successfully impeaching him. As for Agnew, the tax evasion scandal still happened. So in 1971, SoS Richard Nixon succeeded Rockefeller and from there pretty much followed all the foreign policies he did IRL. He chose House Minority Leader Gerald Ford as running mate of the bat.

Reeling from 1968, and keen to find someone more palatable, the Democrats nominated populist neocon Senator Henry "Scoop" Jackson. He in turn chose former Governor Terry Sanford of North Carolina.



President Richard Nixon (R-CA)/ House Minority Leader Gerald Ford (R-MI): 312 EV, 52.2% PV
Senator Henry Jackson (D-WA)/ Fmr. Governor Terry Sanford (D-NC): 226 EV, 46.9% PV

Ultimately, Nixon proves unstoppable on the foreign front and the real divide is on domestic policies. While liberals and older New Dealer Southerners are moved by the Jackson/Sanford rhetoric, ultimately it doesn't counter the Southern Strategy enough.


George Wallace and Henry M Jackson don't do as well as in those maps

I admit 1972 Vermont was a stretch, but I figured Jackson's similar opposition to busing and better education focus would tip it and most of Rockefeller land to him.

And Nixon was rushed into office under this scenario, not almost-elected once and elected twice, this gives him less to work with.

As for Wallace, I figured in Benson's experience as SoA doing the same thing Johnson's Senate Experience did for JFK.

And then there's the fact that McCarthy is far more partisan than Humphrey IRL.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2015, 11:32:42 pm »
« Edited: February 07, 2015, 05:04:15 pm by L.D. Smith, Knight of Appalachia »

Now for Part III, 1976-1984

1976: Reagan vs Brown

Unfortunately, Nixon got caught in Watergate here as well, and Gerald Ford still pardoned him. And given what happened to Nelson Rockefeller and Spiro Agnew, even with Ford's efforts, faith in the GOP and the presidency was all but tarnished. Only a conservative challenge from Ronald Reagan of California was willing to shake things up, and even then, he only narrowly defeated Ford by trumping "Washington outsider"-ness. To appease bitter Ford supporters, he selects Senator Richard Schweiker of Pennsylvania.

However, what should've been a slam dunk for Democrats ended up being a clown-car fight between Northern liberals and New-South moderates. In the end, it was half-term Governor Edmund "Jerry" Brown of California who eventually managed the nomination. In an attempt to reign in the South and have a foreign policy leg, he picks Senator Ernst Hollings of South Carolina



Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/ Senator Richard Schweiker (R-PA): 369 EV, 54.4% PV
Governor Edmund "Jerry" Brown (D-CA)/ Senator Ernst Hollings (D-SC): 169 EV, 43.8% PV

Unfortunately for Brown, Reagan does use Brown's "youth and inexperience" in his campaign, and manages to paint him as a bit of a Moonbeamer, which Brown never does shake off. Brown attempts to point out the failures of the last two presidents and manages to woo some farmers with his economic policies,...but ultimately most expected him to wait.


1980: Kennedy vs Bush

However Reagan ends up in myriad of scandals, and his detractors end up using his age against him. His "Reaganomics" end up being more disastrous than Carter IRL, and ultimately as if the 70's GOP here wasn't seriously bizarre enough, Reagan ends up primaried out by the more moderate Former CIA Director George H.W. Bush of Texas. Bush chooses Howard Baker of Tennessee as running mate.

The Democrats end up peacefully revolving around Senator Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts, who chooses Former Governor Jimmy Carter of Georgia in a sort of "team of rivals truce" sort of thing.



Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA)/ Fmr. Governor Jimmy Carter (D-GA): 329 EV, 51.9% PV
Fmr. CIA Director George HW Bush (R-TX)/ Senator Howard Baker (R-TN): 209 EV, 48.2% PV

Ultimately, the voters end of fatigued of Republicans and more wowed by Kennedy's outspoken nature over Bush's guarded one.


1984: Reagan vs Hart

Unfortunately, Kennedy ended up assassinated in early 1981, which ended up turning the administration to Carter. However just like Carter IRL, ultimately the task was far over his head and he narrowly lost the primaries to Senator Gary "New Ideas" Hart of Colorado. Hart ended up choosing liberal senator Alan Cranston of California.

Reagan in a  Grover Cleveland "miss-me-now?" sort of way managed to defeat Bush for nomination. And this time, he had no baggage to deal with. He also selects Bush for a "team of rivals" sort of thing.



Fmr. President Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/ Fmr. CIA Director George HW Bush (R-TX): 496 EV, 56.2% PV
Senator Gary Hart (D-CO)/ Senator Alan Cranston (D-CA): 42 EV, 42.4% PV

So yeah, Reagan manages to comeback and win big...mostly riding on Carter's unpopularity and Hart failing to "have much beef" with his ideas. Also Cranston ended being a liability rather than help. Whereas Bush ended up being an excellent choice for Reagan.


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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #4 on: January 18, 2015, 12:43:49 am »

My maps werent timeline based as yours were

Respectable enough, but I cannot completely divorce the two given that for the most part (just as I did not when I supposed the Running Mates were the candidates), it would take ridiculously different circumstances for these runner-ups to beat the IRL nominees [especially in cases like Pat Buchanan or Jesse Jackson]...this is especially the case after 1968 elections, given how polarized everything became with Nixon and The Southern Strategy.

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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #5 on: January 18, 2015, 11:05:56 pm »
« Edited: February 07, 2015, 05:05:23 pm by L.D. Smith, Knight of Appalachia »

I'll be putting up the maps of Part IV which covers from Bush Sr up to Gore/Bush IRL. Here are the nominees here

1988: Dole vs. Jackson

Given Reagan is term limited still, even with a Grover Cleveland-esque run. The GOP is an open field, and while the favorite appears to be Former President and Vice President George H.W. Bush, ultimately he gaffes up and runs an "I don't care much but I'm inevitable" campaign, which causes him to lose everything after New Hampshire. Enter Senator Bob Dole of Kansas promising a "gentler nation". He chooses Congressman Jack Kemp of New York for VP

For the Democrats, the field is even more contentious, with Walter Mondale, Al Gore, Michael Dukakis, Joe Biden, and Jesse Jackson all vying for it. Eventually ala Jimmy Carter, Jackson gets he delegate count by grassroots as the other four cause an establishment fight. Gore is selected to unify the party.



 Senator Robert Dole (KS)/ Congressman Jack Kemp: 349 EV, 51.7% PV
Reverend Jesse Jackson (IL)/Senator Al Gore (TN): 189 EV, 46.2% PV

Jackson manages to hit a good chord with the liberal base and even get a lot moderates...until his "hymie-town" remark, and a few other gaffes here and there, which of course Senator Dole plays up. Meanwhile Dole manages to get a lot of moderate appeal. Ultimately, Jackson lands the Northeast and select Midwest and that's it.

1992: Brown vs Buchanan vs Perot

Dole ends up alienating the conservative base enough for Televangelist challenger Pat Buchanan to win in a narrow upset in the primaries. Buchanan chooses Senator Jesse Helms as VP

Challenger Jerry Brown wins after California solidly votes for him in June over Bob Kerrey. Paul Tsongas and Bill CLinton were challengers that dropped early. Brown chooses Jesse Jackson

And Businessman H. Ross Perot



Fmr. Governor  Edmund G. "Jerry" Brown (CA)/Reverend Jesse Jackson (IL): 314 EV, 41.9% PV
Pat Buchanan (VA)/ Senator Jesse Helms (NC): 136 EV, 29. 2% PV
H. Ross Perot (TX)/ Vice Admiral Admiral James Stockdale (CA): 88 EV, 28.9% PV

In the end, Brown is the one who comes off the most qualified and sanest, and in the end Buchanan and Perot simply swapped votes from each other, Buchanan took the South and Perot the Mountain West.

1996: Clinton vs Buchanan

Ross Perot does not try again this time.

 More surprising is Jerry Brown's decline to run another term, in favor of going back to local politics. This of course opens the field up again, with  VP  Jesse Jackson attempting to get support from the Brown coalition,and Former Governor Bill Clinton running a moderate campaign. Clinton takes the lead, and selects the centrist Senator Bob Kerrey of Nebraska for running mate.

With Clinton running, most establishment Republicans sit out the election. Grassroot dark horses do not, and ultimately they go with Pat Buchanan again. Selected for running mate is Elizabeth Dole for credit building.


 

Fmr. Governor Bill Clinton (AR)/ Senator Bob Kerrey (NE): 415 EV, 55.0% PV
Pat Buchanan (VA)/Fmr. Sec. of Transportation Elizabeth Dole (DC): 123 EV, 44.3% PV


2000: McCain vs Bradley

Eventually, the alleged scandals catch up to President Clinton and get him impeached, leaving Blue Dog Kerrey to hold down the White House, which does not sit well with liberals. So just like '92 flipped, Bill Bradley wins in a narrow upset. He chooses John Kerry, a fellow liberal.

The GOP nominate "maverick" John McCain, who selects George W. Bush as an olive branch to the conservatives.



Senator John McCain (AZ)/ George W. Bush (TX): 322 EV, 52.2%
Fmr. Senator Bill Bradley (NJ)/ Senator John Kerry: 216 EV, 46.9%
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2015, 01:28:34 pm »
« Edited: February 08, 2015, 12:34:11 am by L.D. Smith, Knight of Appalachia »

And in advance here's the last round:

2004: Bush vs Edwards

9/11 strikes, and tragically President McCain is one of the victims having been in that part of the Pentagon. This ultimately makes most of the term a George Bush presidency like IRL, and it goes the same way. He chooses Tom Ridge though.

The Democrats narrowly nominate populist Senator John Edwards over war veteran John Kerry, who hopes to bring the issues back to domestic. He decides to pick General Wesley Clark just to be safe



President George Bush (R-TX)/ Fmr. Governor Tom Ridge (R-PA): 270 EV, 49.6% PV
Senator John Edwards (D-NC)/General Wesley Clark (D-OK): 268 EV, 49.4% PV


2008: Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)// Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)
2012: Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)/ Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)
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