Spanish elections and politics

[Donnie]

From which parties are the Podemos voters ?

[Donnie]

So in one year from establishing to today's 26% in the poll above.
This is quite uncommon for a big european country.

[Donnie]

How possible is orangewater as national drink after the election?

[Donnie]

Turnout at 2 P.M: 37.02% (2011: 37.88% -final 68.94%)  (2008: 40.46% -final 73.85%)

[Donnie]

final prediction:

Water             28%
Aubergines    21%
Strawberries  20%
Oranges         14%

turnout: 67%

[Donnie]

With 97.33 % counted:

PSOE+Podemos 161 seats (42.67%)        PP+C's 161 seats (42.62%)

[Donnie]

With 99.43% counted:

PP+C's 163 seats (42.64%)         PSOE+Podemos 159 seats (42.67%)    

[Donnie]

All in all, it's been a weird night. Turnout far lower than expected (73 vs. 77-80), "great" night for the PSOE and Podemos (even if bitter-sweet for both)l, C's really underperformed although they were also quite hurt by the electoral system and I suppose this last week when they lost a lot of momentum did not help and resulted in potential voters sating home (?). The party got 14%, which is far lower than expected by, anyone since, idk, March or so?

The creation of a government is going to be tough. Hopefully grand coalition that manages to implement constitutional, institutional and electoral reforms. Also, a consensus on education would be neat. That's my wish list

Results are really hard to interpretate . My first impression is that we have a country that is divided in several fracture lines. To begin with, territorial breakdown is quite complex and fascinación (hhonestly, I didn't  expect the Podemos extraordinary performance in myCatalonia and the Basque Country ). Not to mention the generational gap  and many other factors that  I 'm  missing .

As for Ciudadanos, in my opinion they lost momentum because gradually they were perceived as an implicit ally for PP rather than an alternative , making their inconsistencies more evident . Their underperformance in Catalonia together with the ECP success is worthy of mention.

I think that a Grand Coalition should be dismissed .  PSOE can't support an administration headed by Rajoy , who is not a decent polítician according to Pedro Sánchez . There is a lot of media speculation right new, including the possibility of a government headed by Soraya backed by C's and with the abstention of PSOE  in the investiture . I can hardly see Rajoy quitting  just like that. I see the path to reforms blocked by the huge differences between the different forces and that PP majority in the Senate .

Parlamentary elections without a threshold (min. 5%) end like that...

[Donnie]

final prediction:

Water            28%  final: 28.7%
Aubergines    21%  final: 20.7%
Strawberries  20%  final: 22%
Oranges         14% final: 13.9%
                            -----------------------------------------------------------
                                                                       avg. error: +/- 0.8 % - i can live with that
turnout: 67%