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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 370740 times)
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CrabCake
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« Reply #2100 on: December 02, 2018, 04:04:45 PM »

Did the Vox break through with working class voters?
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Skye
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« Reply #2101 on: December 02, 2018, 04:04:50 PM »

Wow VOX got double digits.
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Mike88
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« Reply #2102 on: December 02, 2018, 04:09:09 PM »

88.8% in:

28.5% PSOE, 34 seats
20.6% PP, 26
18.0% C's, 20
16.2% AA, 17
10.8% Vox, 12

49.4% PP+C's+VOX, 58 seats
44.7% PSOE+AA, 51
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jaichind
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« Reply #2103 on: December 02, 2018, 04:11:48 PM »

PSOE vote share going up slightly as time goes on.  Right now PSOE+C short of majority.  Maybe at the end PSOE+C might get to majority.
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jaichind
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« Reply #2104 on: December 02, 2018, 04:17:23 PM »

93.43% in:

28.29% PSOE, 33 seats
20.66% PP, 26
18.12% C's, 21
16.16% AA, 17
10.88% Vox, 12

49.66% PP+C's+VOX, 58 seats
44.45% PSOE+AA, 51
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2105 on: December 02, 2018, 04:32:27 PM »

Woah, huge rightwing majority (59 to 50 seats) in this former leftwing stronghold ...
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jaichind
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« Reply #2106 on: December 02, 2018, 04:37:31 PM »

97.64% in:

28.06% PSOE, 33 seats
20.74% PP, 26
18.21% C's, 21
16.16% AA, 17
10.94% Vox, 12

49.89% PP+C's+VOX, 58 seats
44.22% PSOE+AA, 51

PP+C's+VOX vote share closing in on 50%
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #2107 on: December 02, 2018, 04:39:38 PM »

Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2108 on: December 02, 2018, 04:48:48 PM »

Am I wrong to classify VOX‘s stunning success today with migrants storming Andalusian beaches and Sanchez‘s open-arms policy ala Merkel ?
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #2109 on: December 02, 2018, 04:50:30 PM »

Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

Does the UK snap election count?
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #2110 on: December 02, 2018, 04:53:51 PM »

Did the Vox break through with working class voters?

Well, I'd have to look at municipality data, but looking at the poorest and richest areas of Seville  they certainly got a lot of votes but still better on richer areas:

Seville

Cerro Amate (poorest): 7.7%
Casco Antiguo (richest): 15.6%
Overall: 12.4%

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ON Progressive
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« Reply #2111 on: December 02, 2018, 04:54:14 PM »

Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

Does the UK snap election count?

I mean, it was a lot better than it could have been given that everyone three weeks out thought it would be an unmitigated disaster.

Even then, Labour lost that election and there is no sign that Labour will take over Parliament in the next election since they're behind a quite unpopular Tory government in polling atm.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #2112 on: December 02, 2018, 04:55:03 PM »

Am I wrong to classify VOX‘s stunning success today with migrants storming Andalusian beaches and Sanchez‘s open-arms policy ala Merkel ?

Maybe, maybe not. Worth noting that in El Ejido (a town in Almería with a lot of inmigrants and which saw the worst inmigrant riots in Spanish history in 2000) Vox is actually the largest party!
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2113 on: December 02, 2018, 04:55:51 PM »

Am I wrong to classify VOX‘s stunning success today with migrants storming Andalusian beaches and Sanchez‘s open-arms policy ala Merkel ?

Yes, apparently VOX is rising more because of Anti-Catalonia and Feminism laws rather than anti-migrant policies.
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Skye
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« Reply #2114 on: December 02, 2018, 04:57:14 PM »

I'm watching the stream of El País. These guys are seriously stunned due to the results. Reminds me of Trump's victory.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2115 on: December 02, 2018, 04:57:54 PM »

With almost 100% in, the Right is now at 50% and has gained 13.5% compared with 2015 and maintain their 59-50 seat advantage ...
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #2116 on: December 02, 2018, 04:58:36 PM »

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ON Progressive
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« Reply #2117 on: December 02, 2018, 04:59:37 PM »

Did the Vox break through with working class voters?

Well, I'd have to look at municipality data, but looking at the poorest and richest areas of Seville  they certainly got a lot of votes but still better on richer areas:

Seville

Cerro Amate (poorest): 7.7%
Casco Antiguo (richest): 15.6%
Overall: 12.4%

Rich people being more fascist than poor people? Why, I am absolutely stunned! I am sure this isn't a pattern we've seen throughout basically every election worldwide this decade. /s
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #2118 on: December 02, 2018, 04:59:51 PM »

I'm watching the stream of El País. These guys are seriously stunned due to the results. Reminds me of Trump's victory.

For what is worth, the El País poll tracker gave PP+Cs+Vox a 4% chance of a majority and a hard ceiling of 6 seats for Vox (everything beyond that at 0.1% chance)
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Velasco
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« Reply #2119 on: December 02, 2018, 05:04:07 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2018, 05:09:02 PM by Velasco »

Hi people. I disappeared because I'm sick. Literally: influenza. I feel depressed by the result, obviusly. There will be a deluge of analyses and interpretations, probably contradictory. Possibly there's a sum of causes behind this. For instance, immigration weighs in Almería,  but the situation in Catalonia possibly weighs more elsewhere (or not). General dissatisfaction, the impact of the crisis, breeding ground for anti-politics. Generalities.Tender Branson was right with the prediction,  but there's no easy explanation. Extrapolating to a general election, I fear a right wing nationslist government in Spain. Vox is extreme, but PP and Cs have a raducal message too, particularly in the Catalan question. A right wing government could eventually inflate separatism and led to the secession of Catalonia and the collapse of Spain. Reactionary solutions never improved the health of the nations. Vox broke out its limits, that's obvious.

Sorry if this sounds catastrophist. I'm sick.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #2120 on: December 02, 2018, 05:04:35 PM »

Also something interesting to note: PACMA got almost 2% of the vote. If this holds until May 2019 they might be able to get 1 MEP
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #2121 on: December 02, 2018, 05:10:02 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2018, 05:14:19 PM by TheDeadFlagBlues »

Am I wrong to classify VOX‘s stunning success today with migrants storming Andalusian beaches and Sanchez‘s open-arms policy ala Merkel ?

No but it's absurd to focus only on Vox when the C's surged to the same degree but in a more broad-based manner. Clearly migration played an important role in this election but the C's were a more attractive vehicle for those annoyed by the government. Is this a hangover from the Catalonian situation? I have no idea but that seems possible. Easy to forget that this occurred recently...

Worth noting that turnout was very anemic and that there was a turnout differential between agricultural communities and more affluent urban/suburban communities. This almost certainly helped parties of the right across the board, even if it only explains a small, yet significant, part of the swing. Cold comfort for PSOE but no one should look at these results and think that they're finished.  
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JonHawk
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« Reply #2122 on: December 02, 2018, 05:17:08 PM »

Fantastic result for VOX!
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #2123 on: December 02, 2018, 05:17:19 PM »

Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

Andalucia in 2011? Wouldn't say that was a "good" result, exactly, but part of the reason why this is grim to ponder is due to the fact that the left has always been dominant in Andalucia. IIRC, in 2011, PSOE held its ground in surprising fashion when many had written them off.

PSOE is in government at the national level now so this was always a possibility. It feels worse because Vox did very well but, again, as I mentioned to Tender, people are ignoring C's for some reason. As a matter of fact, that party is very extreme but it's easy to see why many PSOE voters would feel comfortable voting for the C's, as they're not a traditional party of the right and have fewer connotations with the wrong side of the Spanish Civil War.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #2124 on: December 02, 2018, 05:20:27 PM »

Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

Andalucia in 2011? Wouldn't say that was a "good" result, exactly, but part of the reason why this is grim to ponder is due to the fact that the left has always been dominant in Andalucia. IIRC, in 2011, PSOE held its ground in surprising fashion when many had written them off.

PSOE is in government at the national level now so this was always a possibility. It feels worse because Vox did very well but, again, as I mentioned to Tender, people are ignoring C's for some reason. As a matter of fact, that party is very extreme but it's easy to see why many PSOE voters would feel comfortable voting for the C's, as they're not a traditional party of the right and have fewer connotations with the wrong side of the Spanish Civil War.

The problem is that the Cs will almost certainly go with PP + Vox over PSOE + AA because centrists will always take the side of the right wing over the side of the left wing.
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