Spanish elections and politics

[Mike88]

Turnout, until now, is 4% lower compared with 2015:

29.94% 2018 2pm
33.94% 2015 2pm

[Mike88]

30% turnout in Andalucia at 14:00. This is down from 34% turnout in 2015. In theory low turnout should help PP and especially PSOE, to the detriment of AA and Cs.

Yeah, turnout is especially lower in two PSOE bastions, Sevilla and Jaén. In both places, turnout is 6% lower compared with 2015. We'll see if the low turnout trend is confirmed at 6pm.

[seb_pard]

Results can't be released until 10:15 pm due to issues with some polling stations

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/MINUTO-Elecciones-andaluzas_13_841795814_22260.html

[Former President tack50]

Worth noting that while we won't get a proper exit poll, we will get a regular poll done during the final few days, done by GAD3 for ABC.

This is similar to the situation in the 2017 Catalan election, where there was no proper exit poll, but there was a regular poll done by La Vanguardia.

Also, worth noting that the lower turnout seems concentrated in rural areas, which means that it's PSOE voters the ones that aren't going out to vote. According to some that may be because olives are being picked up around this time of year, which means rural PSOE voters are at work now. It might also mean that the PSOE machines will get them to vote later.

However, if this stays the same at the next turnout reports, then PSOE should start being worried. They won't lose government anyways but it's certainly a bad sign.

[Mike88]

Turnout also down at 18:00, as 46.5% had cast a ballot. In 2015, at the same time, it was 51.4%

The final turnout figure will likely be something between 58-61%.

By provinces, turnout is down in all 8 provinces, but is higher in PP friendly ones than in PSOE provinces.

[Tender Branson]

Ugh ... only 56% will vote.

That is disappointing. I thought turnout would increase by quite a bit.

[Mike88]

According to El Mundo, both PSOE and PP, with the current turnout figures and on the ground reports, assume that Vox will get 7 or 8 seats in the Andalusian Parliament.

[Mike88]

Also, for anyone interested, live stream of Canal Sur election coverage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ifh1-NazLJ8

[Mike88]

GAD3 poll, not an exit poll:



Coalition scenarios: (55 for majority)

PP+C's: 41-47 seats
PP+C's+Vox: 49-57 seats
PSOE+C's: 55-59 seats
PSOE+AA: 54-58 seats

[Former President tack50]

Wow, Vox above even IU 2015 numbers!

I always thought their ceiling would be becoming "Right wing IU". I guess not, 10% in Andalucia means around 11-12% nationally (extrapolating from their EU result in 2014, so not 100% accurate), almost what Cs currently has

[Tender Branson]

GAD3 poll, not an exit poll:



Coalition scenarios: (55 for majority)

PP+C's: 41-47 seats
PP+C's+Vox: 49-57 seats
PSOE+C's: 55-59 seats
PSOE+AA: 54-58 seats

If this were only the actual results ... it would be close to my prediction.

But the actual results will likely look different.

[Tender Branson]

Btw:

Is PP+Cs+VOX even possible if the numbers are there for them ?

Or has either PP or Cs already ruled out a coalition with VOX ?

[Former President tack50]

Honestly, after 40 years of PSOE-A governments I don't think Cs could refuse to prop up PP even if it is alonside Vox.

In any case I don't think they fully ruled it out

[Mike88]

Btw:

Is PP+Cs+VOX even possible if the numbers are there for them ?

Or has either PP or Cs already ruled out a coalition with VOX ?

According to El País, PP insiders say this is a completely new political scene and that Vox's surge opens new possibilities.

[jaichind]

Wow .. nice numbers for VOX.  Hopefully PP + C + VOX > PSOE + AA.  Most likely not but if VOX is under polled ...

[Velasco]

Cs candidate Juan Marín said that his party would not make deals with VOX, because it's eurosceptic and diesn't share orange values. However, Marín said that he would accept the Vox support in exchange for nothing. In other words, if they have the numbers the parties of the right will make an arrangement.

Low turnout, far right rise. Nightmarish scenario.  I hope the results mitigate the shock, but the trend is clear. Anti-politics, chaos, conflict. Very bad prospect.

[Mike88]

Btw:

Is PP+Cs+VOX even possible if the numbers are there for them ?

Or has either PP or Cs already ruled out a coalition with VOX ?

According to El País, PP insiders say this is a completely new political scene and that Vox's surge opens new possibilities.

While, also according to El País, C's are saying caution, caution and they see as very difficult a sum between PP+C's and Vox.

[Tender Branson]

Cs candidate Juan Marín said that his party would not make deals with VOX, because it's eurosceptic and diesn't share orange values. However, Marín said that he would accept the Vox support in exchange for nothing. In other words, if they have the numbers the parties of the right will make an arrangement.

Low turnout, far right rise. Nightmarish scenario.  I hope the results mitigate the shock, but the trend is clear. Anti-politics, chaos, conflict. Very bad prospect.

Not always. In some places like Austria or the US, the far-right/Trump-GOP also does well in high-turnout elections.

And while Austria ÖVP-FPÖ 1.0 between 2000-2006 and Trump/GOP was/is indeed chaotic and creating conflict, the current ÖVP-FPÖ government 2.0 has learned a lot and is now one of the best-performing and most stable governments in Europe.

It's all a matter of how competent the far-right parties in charge of the government are and how much they are willing to work on solutions for the people who elected them ...

[Mike88]

More data from the GAD 3 poll. Results by provinces:



PSOE would win all 8 provinces.

[bigic]

L - left-of-centre parties PSOE, AA
R - right-of-centre parties PP, Cs, VOX
Huelva
L 6-7
R 4-5
Sevilla
L 10
R 8
Cadiz
L 8
R 7
Malaga
L 8
R 9
Cordoba
L 6-7
R 5-6
Jaen
L 5-6
R 5-6
Granada
L 6-7
R 6-7
Almeria
L 5
R 7

The most optimistic scenario for L:
L 58
R 51

The most optimistic scenario for R:
L 54
R 55 (1 seat majority)

Of course PSOE-Cs is also possible.

[Mike88]

PSOE internal poll:

PSOE: 39-40 seats
PP: 25
C's: 20
AA: 18
Vox: 6-7

[Mike88]

82.8% in:

28.7% PSOE, 33 seats
20.5% PP, 26
17.9% C's, 21
16.2% AA, 17
10.8% Vox, 12
  1.9% PACMA

[BigSerg]

PSOE internal poll:

PSOE: 39-40 seats
PP: 25
C's: 20
AA: 18
Vox: 6-7

Lol Psoe is dead

[BigSerg]

82.8% in:

28.7% PSOE, 33 seats
20.5% PP, 26
17.9% C's, 21
16.2% AA, 17
10.8% Vox, 12
  1.9% PACMA

It's happening!

[jaichind]

82.8% in:

28.7% PSOE, 33 seats
20.5% PP, 26
17.9% C's, 21
16.2% AA, 17
10.8% Vox, 12
  1.9% PACMA

YES !!