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Velasco
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« Reply #1975 on: September 13, 2018, 07:11:07 AM »

According to the monthly Celeste-Tel poll released by eldiario.es, PP is growing at the expense of Cs while PSOE halts its growth

PSOE 28.2%, PP 26.4%, Cs 18.7%, UP 17.1%, Others 9.5%

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/PSOE-ascenso-PP-creciendo-Ciudadanos_0_813669536.html
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Velasco
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« Reply #1976 on: September 13, 2018, 07:55:53 AM »

BREAKING

Spanish Congress supports a legislative decree approved by the government in August in order to exhume and move away the Franco's remains from the Valle de los Caídos memorial.

The vote went as follows: 172 in favour, 164 abstentions and 2 against. All PP and Cs deputies abstained, except two PP members who voted against alleging mistake.

On the legislative decree

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/08/24/inenglish/1535097265_662248.html

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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1977 on: September 13, 2018, 10:09:26 AM »
« Edited: September 13, 2018, 10:21:27 AM by tack50 »

Also today in Congress the reform of the Canary Islands statute of autonomy was passed. I looked it up and it's the first passed statute reform for any autonomous community since 2011. Technically it still has to go through the Senate, but it should pass easily unless Sánchez calls a snap election for some reason.

https://www.canarias7.es/politica/el-congreso-aprueba-la-propuesta-de-reforma-del-estatuto-de-canarias-DG5484498

Among the key features, the islands will get more self government, the special taxation regime (REF) will be more protected and the islands will get a new electoral system. Other minor but important features are that the premier of the islands gets the ability to call snap elections independently of all other regions (Valencia already has this iirc) and also gets the abilty to rule by decree, like the Prime Minister (not sure if any other place has this).

The new electoral system, while still bad, is a slight improvement over the old one. The Canary Islands parliament will go up to 70 seats, from the current 60. Of these 10 new seats, 1 will be assigned to the island of Fuerteventura (which before had 7 seats compared to La Palma's 8, even though it had a higher population). The other 9 will be assigned in a regional constituency.

The electoral barriers have also been lowered to 15% on a single island or 4% in the entire archipielago (down from 30% and 6% previously). Had this system been used for the 2015 regional elections, the new result would have been:

CC: 20 (+2)
PSOE: 17 (+2)
PP: 14 (+2)
Podemos: 9 (+2)
NCa: 5 (-)
ASG: 3 (-)
Cs: 2 (+2)

Viable coalitions: CC+PSOE; CC+PP+Cs; CC+PP+ASG

So yeah, CC still wins while coming 3rd in the popular vote. And the new system still has the smaller islands overrepresented. So while an improvement (particularly lowering the electoral barriers), it's far from great.

The vote in Congress was:

Yes: PP, PSOE, CC, NCa, PDECat, PNV
No: Podemos
Abstaining: Cs, ERC
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Velasco
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« Reply #1978 on: September 13, 2018, 05:47:23 PM »
« Edited: September 13, 2018, 05:52:06 PM by Velasco »

Had this system been used for the 2015 regional elections, the new result would have been:

CC: 20 (+2)
PSOE: 17 (+2)
PP: 14 (+2)
Podemos: 9 (+2)
NCa: 5 (-)
ASG: 3 (-)
Cs: 2 (+2)

How did you calculate this allocation of seats? As far as I know the draft does not detail the system of allocation of the regional list seats. Maybe it's better than nothing, but this reform s botched.

The affair of the Pedro Sánchez thesis is something like a somekescreen, useful for Rivera in order to regain protagonism and to divert the focus from important things. I have heard that the rivals of Pedro Sánchez in the PSOE already examined it and didn't find signs of plagiarism.

For instance, yesterday's vote was belated but historic. The abstention of PP and Cs is very idifficult to justify. I think the Spanish Right won't be tretaed well by posterity on this issue

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/09/13/inenglish/1536852062_932166.html

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Franco's family is opposed

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1979 on: September 14, 2018, 02:11:48 AM »

BREAKING

Spanish Congress supports a legislative decree approved by the government in August in order to exhume and move away the Franco's remains from the Valle de los Caídos memorial.

The vote went as follows: 172 in favour, 164 abstentions and 2 against. All PP and Cs deputies abstained, except two PP members who voted against alleging mistake.

On the legislative decree

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/08/24/inenglish/1535097265_662248.html

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Wonderful news.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1980 on: September 14, 2018, 06:30:37 AM »

Had this system been used for the 2015 regional elections, the new result would have been:

CC: 20 (+2)
PSOE: 17 (+2)
PP: 14 (+2)
Podemos: 9 (+2)
NCa: 5 (-)
ASG: 3 (-)
Cs: 2 (+2)

How did you calculate this allocation of seats? As far as I know the draft does not detail the system of allocation of the regional list seats. Maybe it's better than nothing, but this reform s botched.


[/quote]

From what I can tell the regional list seats are just treated like any other constituency, so I just asigned the 9 seats proportionally to the regional results (iirc it ended up something like PSOE 2, PP 2, CC 2, Podemos 2, NC 1).

Other than that I just recalculated the results in each island taking into account what Cs got (since they would now be above the threshold), and the extra seat in Fuerteventura.

Of course if the extra regional seats are meant as leveling seats (as opposed to just an extra constituency) that would be harder to calculate, but it would also be better.

As for the Franco stuff, I don't think it will cost many votes to PP/Cs (if at all), but it might make it harder for them to take centrist voters and distances them from literally every other party in Congress.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1981 on: September 14, 2018, 08:58:22 AM »
« Edited: September 14, 2018, 10:21:20 AM by Velasco »

Had this system been used for the 2015 regional elections, the new result would have been:

CC: 20 (+2)
PSOE: 17 (+2)
PP: 14 (+2)
Podemos: 9 (+2)
NCa: 5 (-)
ASG: 3 (-)
Cs: 2 (+2)

How did you calculate this allocation of seats? As far as I know the draft does not detail the system of allocation of the regional list seats. Maybe it's better than nothing, but this reform s botched.



From what I can tell the regional list seats are just treated like any other constituency, so I just asigned the 9 seats proportionally to the regional results (iirc it ended up something like PSOE 2, PP 2, CC 2, Podemos 2, NC 1).

Other than that I just recalculated the results in each island taking into account what Cs got (since they would now be above the threshold), and the extra seat in Fuerteventura.

Of course if the extra regional seats are meant as leveling seats (as opposed to just an extra constituency) that would be harder to calculate, but it would also be better. [/quote]

I'm afraid the draft does not specify if the regional seats will be calculated as levelling seats (they should) or as an extra constituency. Possibly it will be the second option by default. A way to calculate the possible result with levelling seats is treating the Canary Islands as a single constituency and then subtract the seats each party wins in the insular constituencies.

Results in insular constituencies (61 seats)*

CC 18, PSOE 15, PP 12, Podemos 7, NC 4, ASG 3, Cs 2

*Compared with the actual result  Cs wins 1 seat in Tenerife and 1 in Gran Canaria; CC loses 1 seat in Tenerife to Cs and gains the extra seat in Fuertecentura; NC loses 1 seat in Gran Canaria to Cs

Canary Islands as a single constituency (70 seats, D'Hondt)

PSOE 16, PP 15, CC 15, Podemos 12, NC 8, Cs 4, ASG 0

The problem is that CC and ASG won 3 seats more in the insular constituencies than the seats allocated in the second calculation, so we would need  overhang seats that are not present in the electoral reform.

Difference between second and first calculations:

PSOE 1, PP 3, CC -3, Podemos 5, NC 4, Cs 2, ASG -3 (Total: 9)

After some calculations, I found that the result could be (regional seats in brackets):

CC 18 (-), PSOE 15 (-), PP 13 (1), Podemos 10 (3), NC 7 (3), Cs 4 (2), ASG 3 (-)


Conclusion: if the seats of the regional constituency are intended to be levelling seats, 9 seats are too little. To put it in other words: this electoral reform is a fraud.

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This is not a question of winning or losing votes.


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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1982 on: September 15, 2018, 08:43:13 AM »

Yes, it's not about votes but still. Remember that PP didn't formally condemn Francoism in Congress until 2002. It might make them look bad but their base doesn't care.

As for the reform, as a sidenote, if the regional constituency is elected separately it will be the first time that a paralel voting system will be used in Spain. I don't think it will happen but it would be interesting to see the diferences between the island and regional vote (particularly in La Gomera). It will also make counting slower.

Also, the Vox rise is real. 3 of the last 5 polls have included them.

IMOP/El Confidencial

PSOE: 26.5%
Cs: 23.9%
PP: 20.3%
UP: 15.4%
Vox: 3.0%
PACMA: 2.1%

ERC: 2.8%
PDECat: 1.5%
PNV: 1.2%
Bildu: 0.7%

Finally, in Sánchez's thesis scandal, he has released it and the like, and now he is threatening to bring charges against the newspapers that accused him of plagiarism. The 3 newspapers that did (ABC, El Mundo and OKDiario) aren't going to retract themselves so I guess it will end up in court.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1983 on: September 15, 2018, 10:00:03 AM »
« Edited: September 15, 2018, 12:34:59 PM by Velasco »

It's not only the PP. Cs supported a legislative proposal on the subject put forward by PSOE past year. It's very difficult to justify that Spanish "liberals" don't support now the exhumation of Franco's remains from that awful place called Valle de los Caídos, something that is long overdue. 43 years is a very long time, but it's better late than never.

As for the thesis of Pedro Sánchez, there is no such scandal. It's simply slander, as Borrell said. Rivera, Casado and the conservative papers muddy the waters, They prefer making noise to make valid criticism on matters that deserve it (for instance, the management of that contract deal in laser guided bombs with Saudi Arabia). That's the way of acting usual in the Spanish Right. Casado lacks the moral authority (the master affair), but it doesn't matter because many right-wingers in Spain are shameless.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1984 on: September 15, 2018, 01:48:34 PM »

Yup, I'd say Sánchez's doctorate is clean. Or at the absolute worst, the accusations against him, even if they were true, can't really be proven easily. For example, the accusation that it was a shadow writer (Carlos Ocaña) who really did the thesis, has been rejected both by Sánchez and by Ocaña himself, so unless they have proof that they are lying there's nothing there.

And of course Casado is not the right person to accuse Sánchez of that. I wonder what will happen if the Supreme Court ends up indicting Casado under charges of bribery and prevarication.

As for Cs and Franco, they are clearly trying to get votes from PP, they seem to have abandoned any pretense of being centre-left or even centrist; and are clearly right of center by now.
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PSOL
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« Reply #1985 on: September 18, 2018, 07:27:48 AM »

Major news, Spain has rejected an extradition request on the behalf of the Swiss gov for an HSBC whistleblower
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hsbc-tax-spain/spain-rejects-latest-swiss-bid-to-extradite-hsbc-whistleblower-idUSKCN1LY1EG
How are banks viewed in Spain, are chains viewed similarly or more intense than in the states.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1986 on: September 18, 2018, 06:02:03 PM »

Former PM was today in Congress, told a lot of lies and seemed to be very delighted with himself. It's hard to explain how arrogant and unpleasant can be this insufferable little man

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/09/18/inenglish/1537279288_066798.html

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In other news, Pedro Sánchez proposes a constitutional reform in order that MPs can be judged by ordinary courts for charges unrelated to their official duties

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/09/17/inenglish/1537192289_050046.html

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This proposed 'express reform' seems extemporaneous and doomed to fail. given that the PP support is necessary and that party is not willing to. I don't know if it will work as a public relations campaign. Spanish Congress voted today a motion on the same subject put forward by Cs. PP and PSOE supported it but took advantage to attack Cs. Podemos and PNV voted against because Cs rejected an amendment on removing the king's inviolability. Catalan separatists voted against too. The value of the motion is merely symbolic.

Major news, Spain has rejected an extradition request on the behalf of the Swiss gov for an HSBC whistleblower
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hsbc-tax-spain/spain-rejects-latest-swiss-bid-to-extradite-hsbc-whistleblower-idUSKCN1LY1EG
How are banks viewed in Spain, are chains viewed similarly or more intense than in the states.

The argument to deny extradition is that there's nothing in the Spanish criminal code similar to 0aggravated financial espionage', which may indicate that bank secrecy is much more important in Switzerland. This week Belgium rejected the extradition of a rap 'artist' called Valtònyc because 'glorification of terrorism' and 'insult to the Crown' don't exist in the Belgian code. Answering your question, I think that rhe banks were seen better before the last financial crisis and the bailout to the Spanish banks.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1987 on: September 19, 2018, 07:15:41 AM »
« Edited: September 19, 2018, 09:26:20 AM by Velasco »

There have been insistent rumours in the last months that placed former French PM Manuel Valls as possible candidate for Mayor of Barcelona, presumably on the top of a 'constitutionalist' independent list backed by Cs. A Paris Match cover released in late August featured Manuel Valls with his new girlfriend Susana Gallardo. According to Paris Match Mr Valls has found happiness with Gallardo, portrayed by the French magazine as a Catalan businesswoman committed to the unity of Spain. Manuel Valls, who was born in Barcelona, implied in a recent interview that personal factors could influence his decision to run for mayor in the local elections next year. He said that he would make a decision at the end of summer. It's yet to confirm (within a few days), but there are two related news that may indicate something:

 1) There's an online petition demanding the resignation of Manuel Valls as member of the French National Assembly, because the promoters consider that Valls has became a "ghost deputy" that spends too much timer in Spain preparing his candidacy for Barcelona.

https://www.change.org/p/farida-amrani-exigeons-la-d%C3%A9mission-de-manuel-valls-d%C3%A9put%C3%A9-fant%C3%B4me-de-l-assembl%C3%A9e-nationale

2) According to El Periódico, Manuel Valls is beginning to organize his campaign. Valls would have offered a post of adviser to Xavier Roig, a man who was the right hand of former mayor Pasqual Maragall (PSC). Maragall was in office between 1983 and 1996 and during his tenure the <Barcelona Olympic Games took place, later he became premier of Catalonia (2003-2006) in re`placement pf Jordi Pujol. Hiring Roig could be an asset for Valls, in order to arm a strong candidacy in Barcelona.

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/barcelona/20180918/valls-ofrece-campana-electoral-xavier-roig-7041748

Manuel Valls and Susana Gallardo in Paris Match:

https://www.parismatch.com/Actu/Politique/Manuel-Valls-Susana-Gallardo-son-nouvel-amour-1570858

In case Valls decides to run, his main rivals would be incumbent mayor Ada Cola (BComú, backed by Podemos)u and the pro-independence candidate backed by Puigdemoint (presumably Ferran Mascarell. formerly in PSC). It's unclear if pro-independence parties will form a unity list (Puigdemont list and ERC) or run in their own.

I
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windjammer
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« Reply #1988 on: September 19, 2018, 08:33:23 AM »

RIP Spain. Although to be honest Valls fits so well Ciudadanos
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1989 on: September 19, 2018, 09:34:58 AM »

Yay, unpopular foreign Prime Ministers for mayor! Though to be fair, if Valls somehow became mayor it would be quite a significant event in the EU, the first time a foreigner becomes mayor of an important town in another country.

In any case though, Valls seems to me like a significant underdog. Colau is favoured since she can get the support of both unionist parties (PSC) and secessionist parties (ERC, CUP); plus the fact that the right has only won the elections in Barcelona exactly once (in the 2011 right wing landslide)

The secessionists (particularly ERC or if they make a joint list) do have a chance of unseating Valls, but Cs doesn't.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1990 on: September 19, 2018, 09:45:47 AM »

RIP Spain. Although to be honest Valls fits so well Ciudadanos

Manuel Valls would like to be candidate of a 'constitutionalist' coalition with Cs, PSC and PP. It's highly unlikely that Catalan Socialists accept to be in that list. Maybe PP could consider to join if polls say they would disappear from the city council, but I'm not sure. Cs leader is very enthusiastic with the possibility and he would like that Manuel Valls was the candidate of his party, but the French politician prefers a broader coalition. There is an evident affinity between Rivera and Valls and the latter seems to have plans to stay in Barcelona. I don't like Valls, but I think the campaign would be very interesting with him running. In any case, his chances of winning a majority are null and his chances of placing first depend on external factors (i.e the unity of the pro-independence parties or the Ada Colau's resilience). If he was to be the mayor, I'd say "poor Barcelona", but I don't think this is the likeliest outcome.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1991 on: September 25, 2018, 11:11:45 AM »
« Edited: September 25, 2018, 11:21:01 AM by tack50 »

Well, what used to be the bestt pollster, the public CIS, is now going to do monthly polls, instead of 1 poll every 3 months. The change is good, and their first monthly poll is this one

CIS



Honeestly, this poll is terrible garbage. We should rename CIS to "Centre of Socialist Investigations" by now lol.

The reason why it's thrash is basically that PSOE is way up and PP way down. Especially compared with the "direct vote intention" (before adjustments are made), where PSOE is actually way down from the last poll and PP quite up.

I still believe PSOE should be ahead, but by 1-2 points, not by 10 like the poll shows. In fact, a direct extapolation would show PSOE winnning in literally all provinces except the 4 catalan ones, 2/3 Basque provinces and Ávila.

Other weird stuff is ERC being way up (4% is a lot), Bildu out of nowhere overtaking PNV when literally no other poll predicts that

Also, the funniest crosstab of all time, apparently 16% of CC voters will now vote for Bildu. Yes n=1 but still considering that Bildu and CC don't run in the same provinces I'm having a hard time thinking about such a voter.

Only good thing is that it does show Vox and PACMA (for the first time I think, at least for Vox). With 1.4% and 1.6% respectively, they are both at the edge of getting 1 seat, with Vox being slightly closer because of  their vote distribution (PACMA is more spread out)

We also have 2 more (and better IMO) polls:

DYM for El Independiente and Prensa Ibérica



Metroscopia



Finally, we also have some regional polls. I'm not going to post them all but if anyone cares here they are

https://www.electograph.com/search/label/Auton%C3%B3micas

In terms of my "ratings", I'm now less confident about PP winning again in Melilla (though they should still be favoured) and think that GBai is ahead in Navarra (instead of being a tossup)



Finally, in non polling related news, Manuel Valls is officially in as Cs' candidate for Barcelona mayor

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/former-french-pm-seeks-political-redemption-in-barcelona-1.3640045
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« Reply #1992 on: September 25, 2018, 11:35:24 AM »

Also, there's a scandal in the Sánchez cabinet (again). This time involving a leaked private conversation from minister of Justice Dolores Delgado calling minister of the interior Fernando Grande-Marlaska a fa*** (maricón) all the way back in 2009. Grande-Marlaska is openly homesexual.

The conversation was recorded by the controversial Jose Jimenez Villarejo. Not only that but apparently she initially denied having been with him, then apparently she had to admit she had been with him.

In any case, not sure if she will end up resigning but if she does it will be the 3rd resignation in slightly less than 4 months lol.

This government is having a ton of scandals for some reason. They are handled better and are less serious than the PP scandals IMO but still there are a ton. Then again that might be my political leanings.
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« Reply #1993 on: September 25, 2018, 02:37:18 PM »


Lara says he would rather not be just C's, later confirmed in the official announcement of his non-party candidacy, and from Le Monde I learned a new word to me, "le parachutage".
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Velasco
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« Reply #1994 on: September 26, 2018, 04:28:57 AM »
« Edited: September 26, 2018, 05:02:49 AM by Velasco »


Lara says he would rather not be just C's, later confirmed in the official announcement of his non-party candidacy, and from Le Monde I learned a new word to me, "le parachutage".

Exactly. Valls will run as an independent candidate with the support of Cs.

The CIS poll is not credible. Anyway the PSOE resists on the top, making gains at the expense of Podemos. The Pedro Sánchez government is like a fortress under siege and the grace period comes to an end. The Dolores Delgado affair is clearly blackmail. PP and Cs fight for the second place, with advantage for the latter. The radicalization of Casado (PP) and Rivera (Cs) might be boosting Vox.
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« Reply #1995 on: September 27, 2018, 06:24:31 PM »

And yet another scandal in the Sánchez government. This time involving Science and Universities minister Pedro Duque (the famous "astronaut minister")

In this case Duque is being accused of buying his house through a "business without activity" in order to pay less in taxes. Meanwhile Duque claims that he didn't do anything illegal and that he ended up paying the same amount in taxes that he would have paid otherwise, and that his actual salary was also paid directly to him and not through that business.

And of course earlier declarations of Sánchez on the issue have come to bite him back. This time he apparently claimed in 2015 that "If someone in the executive of my party had created a society to pay less in taxes, that person would be out of the executive next morning".

Not sure if Duque should resign or not honestly.

But yet another scandal makes me worried about the Sánchez government.
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« Reply #1996 on: September 27, 2018, 08:47:13 PM »

All these scandals make it seem like the Sanchez government came to power 'before its prime' so to speak. They were thrust into power and had to stick people in government without a proper vetting. Might not be true, but thats the image.
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« Reply #1997 on: September 28, 2018, 10:25:56 AM »

BREAKING

Spanish Congress supports a legislative decree approved by the government in August in order to exhume and move away the Franco's remains from the Valle de los Caídos memorial.

The vote went as follows: 172 in favour, 164 abstentions and 2 against. All PP and Cs deputies abstained, except two PP members who voted against alleging mistake.

On the legislative decree

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/08/24/inenglish/1535097265_662248.html

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Wonderful news.

Why do C's even abstain. They should be a liberal pro-Europe political party, but they secretly still admire Franco. Ugh, Spanish politics is sick.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1998 on: October 02, 2018, 11:36:55 AM »

Yesterday it was the anniversary of the illegal referendum called by the separatist government of Catalonia. It wasn't a a legally valid referendum and the results were not internationally approved. However the October 1 will be remembered by the unnecessary police brutality, which was the visible consequence of the Rajoy's awkwardness. About 2 million of Catalans, overwhelmingly pro-independence, turned out on that day to express their desire to vote. I think the leaders of the independence movement of Catalonia are a bunch of liars that have fed their people with false hopes and false arguments. Anyway there is some Spanish centralist nationalism that is even worse, Those citizens were excercising their freedom of expression and casting ballots in a fake referendum does not harm anybody. The disproportionate police response damaged the international reputation of Spain.

The independence movement claims to be peaceful and civil. This has been true so far, but there are disturbing signs on the horizon. Yesterday 'radical separatists'  tried to storm the Parliament of Catalonia

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/10/02/inenglish/1538467014_334868.html

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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,269
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

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« Reply #1999 on: October 02, 2018, 01:29:21 PM »

BREAKING

Spanish Congress supports a legislative decree approved by the government in August in order to exhume and move away the Franco's remains from the Valle de los Caídos memorial.

The vote went as follows: 172 in favour, 164 abstentions and 2 against. All PP and Cs deputies abstained, except two PP members who voted against alleging mistake.

On the legislative decree

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/08/24/inenglish/1535097265_662248.html

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Wonderful news.

Why do C's even abstain. They should be a liberal pro-Europe political party, but they secretly still admire Franco. Ugh, Spanish politics is sick.
Because a lot of their support comes from nationalists. They hammered their colors to the mast in the Catalonia crisis.
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