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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 370583 times)
TheSaint250
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« Reply #1450 on: November 08, 2017, 06:19:50 PM »

Is the threshold 2%?
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« Reply #1451 on: November 08, 2017, 06:27:54 PM »
« Edited: November 08, 2017, 06:30:26 PM by Çråbçæk »

The electoral system is constituency based, so there is no real threshold per se (I think there is a set threshold of three percent per constituency, but most of them are small constituencies with a higher effective threshold).

I'm going to pump for PACMA?

Also, the reason to oppose Diaz isn't just because of ideology, Bloomberg. The Southern barons are, erm, not good backers.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1452 on: November 08, 2017, 06:31:45 PM »
« Edited: November 08, 2017, 06:35:52 PM by tack50 »


On paper: 3% at the constituency level.

In practice the threshold only really applies to Madrid and Barcelona provinces as every other place doesn't have enough seats for a party with 3% to get in. After Madrid and Barcelona (with more than 30 seats each) the next largest would be Valencia but that one only has 15 seats so to get a seat there you would need to be at around 5% or so.

The seats are distributed accorging to constituencies, not all of Spain. So in theory you could have a party winning the popular vote but getting less seats. That was a possibility between Podemos and PSOE in the run up to the 2016 election, some thought PSOE would get more seats but a lower popular vote percentage than Podemos. In the end they ended up winning both.

And as for PACMA, they got their best result in Barcelona (1.8% while they were at 1.2% nationally). In theory a good campaign could mean a seat for PACMA in Barcelona but it's highly unlikely.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1453 on: November 08, 2017, 06:39:55 PM »

the worst part is the senate, which is the world's worst system: bloc vote. IMO the wisest thing to do though would be to try and run joint candidates on an "abolish the senate" platform.
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DL
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« Reply #1454 on: November 09, 2017, 10:57:28 AM »

If PSOE and Citizens combined got over 175 seats (or close enough they could do a deal with some regional parties) - could they forma  government together and dispense with the need to accommodate PP and Podemos altogether? 
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1455 on: November 09, 2017, 04:04:50 PM »

If PSOE and Citizens combined got over 175 seats (or close enough they could do a deal with some regional parties) - could they forma  government together and dispense with the need to accommodate PP and Podemos altogether? 

No regional party would ever want to support a government with Citizens in.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1456 on: November 09, 2017, 04:23:59 PM »

If PSOE and Citizens combined got over 175 seats (or close enough they could do a deal with some regional parties) - could they forma  government together and dispense with the need to accommodate PP and Podemos altogether? 

No regional party would ever want to support a government with Citizens in.

The Canarian parties would but they will almost certainly only get 1 seat from CC. NCa ran alongside PSOE last time so in any PSOE led coalition they'll support that
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #1457 on: November 12, 2017, 03:50:53 PM »

Is...is this real?

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/929784107613212672
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Lumine
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« Reply #1458 on: November 12, 2017, 04:40:06 PM »

Ciudadanos at 22-23% and tied with PSOE, absolutely beautiful. Go Rivera!
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jaichind
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« Reply #1459 on: November 12, 2017, 04:40:23 PM »


Wow ...
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #1460 on: November 12, 2017, 04:50:27 PM »

I hope this poll isn’t an outlier. While I doubt that C’s can overtake PP, this shows that it will be a true driving force throughout Spanish politics at a higher level than ever before.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1461 on: November 12, 2017, 05:01:18 PM »

Looks real

https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/11/12/actualidad/1510492625_447115.html

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TheSaint250
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« Reply #1462 on: November 12, 2017, 05:05:35 PM »


Now, it just remains to be seen whether or not elections are called soon.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1463 on: November 12, 2017, 05:13:18 PM »

I think the next bifurcation point would be the Catalan elections Dec and see if the pro-Independence forces and capture a majority.  If so the crisis would get worse and PP/C would gain at the expense of of PSOE. 

I have an old rule of politics

If politics of an ecosystem becomes of politics of identity like on ROC (the Chinese vs Taiwanese identity) then political discourse always shift to the Right.   
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #1464 on: November 12, 2017, 05:21:29 PM »

I think the next bifurcation point would be the Catalan elections Dec and see if the pro-Independence forces and capture a majority.  If so the crisis would get worse and PP/C would gain at the expense of of PSOE. 

I have an old rule of politics

If politics of an ecosystem becomes of politics of identity like on ROC (the Chinese vs Taiwanese identity) then political discourse always shift to the Right.   

Huh, interesting.

This will be a pivotal next few months.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1465 on: November 12, 2017, 08:35:39 PM »
« Edited: November 12, 2017, 08:42:20 PM by tack50 »

For all what's worth, while the Metroscopia poll is 100% real and from a decent polling company, Metroscopia has consistently overpolled Cs. I do believe that Cs has increased quite a lot and has overtaken Podemos, but they are probably still at 20% or lower, with PSOE ahead of them by a couple points.

Also, notice the increase in "others". It's at 13.8% while on the general election of 2016 it was at  10.1%. This makes me think that maybe that poll that gave VOX a seat was not an outlier after all or that PACMA might be able to get a seat.
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« Reply #1466 on: November 13, 2017, 05:58:08 AM »

That poll is most alarming for Podemos: Metroscopia typically overpoll Podemos and C's and under poll the old parties.

The left had better hope the Catalonia issue dies down and Spain gets to talk about actually important issues. (What is poverty and corruption? The only thing that matters is muh fleg!)
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #1467 on: November 13, 2017, 06:56:08 AM »

That poll is most alarming for Podemos: Metroscopia typically overpoll Podemos and C's and under poll the old parties.

The left had better hope the Catalonia issue dies down and Spain gets to talk about actually important issues. (What is poverty and corruption? The only thing that matters is muh fleg!)

I mean, I would think about the unity of my nation as a "real issue" if I were Spanish.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1468 on: November 19, 2017, 11:50:56 AM »
« Edited: November 19, 2017, 06:43:10 PM by tack50 »

The time to register as a party to be able to take part in the Catalan election has ended. The following parties will present candidates. The ones with a chance to get seats appear in a colour other than black.

All of Catalonia

PARTIT DELS SOCIALISTES DE CATALUNYA (PSC-PSOE)
PARTIT POPULAR / PARTIDO POPULAR (PP)
ESQUERRA REPUBLICANA-CATALUNYA SÍ (ERC-CatSÍ)
CIUTADANS-PARTIDO DE LA CIUDADANIA (C’s)
CANDIDATURA D’UNITAT POPULAR (CUP)
CATALUNYA EN COMÚ-PODEM (CatComú-Podem)
JUNTS PER CATALUNYA (JUNTSxCAT)
RECORTES CERO-GRUPO VERDE (RECORTES CERO-GRUPO VERDE)
PARTIT ANIMALISTA CONTRA EL MALTRACTAMENT ANIMAL (PACMA)
PER UN MON MES JUST (PUM+J)
DIÀLEG REPUBLICÀ (DIÀLEG)

Barcelona only

LA FAMILIA PAZ Y LIBERTAD (La Familia)
DEMOCRACIA NACIONAL (DN)
PARTIT FAMILIA i VIDA (PFiV)
CONVERGENTS (CNV)
UNIDOS y SOCIALISTAS+por la Democracia

Tarragona only
CIUDADANOS LIBRES UNIDOS (CLIUS)

Party leaders and candidates

PSC-PSOE
: Miquel Iceta
PP: Xavier García Albiol
ERC: Oriol Junqueras is the number 1 in the list but he is in jail. The de facto leader is Marta Rovira
Cs: Ines Arrimadas
CUP: Carles Riera. CUP has a strict one term policy for their leaders so their former leaders, Anna Gabriel and Antonio Baños are nowhere in the lists.
En Comú Podem: Xavier Domenech
Junts x Catalunya: Carles Puigdemont. He is in Belgium and I have no idea who the actual leader is. This is PDECat but under another name basically. Though the list includes a lot of independents (including the 2 Jordis that are in jail) and very few who are actually from PDECat.

https://www.boe.es/boe/dias/2017/11/19/pdfs/BOE-A-2017-13305.pdf


Of the minor lists, I'd say the only interesting ones are PACMA (who has a very small chance of getting seats, the threshold seems to be 3%), Convergents (founded by a corrupt regional minister, trying to be like the former Unió, as in nationalist but not secessionist) and maaaybe Recortes Cero (far left, even more than Podemos, but hardline unionist) and Democracia Nacional (the only far right party that is contesting the election). Also, apparently Dialeg República was an ERC list they registered in case the party was illegalized but they weren't able to drop out.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1469 on: November 19, 2017, 04:46:54 PM »

hmmm...something tells me at least one of the ones running only in Barcelona are marketing companies.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1470 on: November 19, 2017, 06:12:22 PM »

What is PACMA's stance on the union?
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1471 on: November 19, 2017, 06:53:02 PM »


Surprisingly, they don't have one! They seem to just ignore the issue and pretend it doesn't exist. None of their manifestos even had a single reference to the whole independence process.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1472 on: November 25, 2017, 09:02:59 PM »
« Edited: November 25, 2017, 09:06:15 PM by tack50 »

Slightly less than 1 month before the Catalan election, the polling average seems to be this:



Secesionists win 45.5-42.9-9.1 and they also win in seat count 67-57-11. They seem to have lost the psychologic barrier of 68 seats (a majority) but honestly that's still a toss up.

I personally hope they lose their majority, that way someone can at least hit the brakes and slow down things.

Also, it seems that the lists of candidates I posted before were temporary, and some of them apparently won't be able to run. In fact other than the ones that will get seats only PACMA, PUM+J, Recortes Cero and Dialeg Republica (idk why ERC didn't drop this list in the end) were allowed to run.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1473 on: November 26, 2017, 06:22:23 AM »

Is there really a chance of the revival of the tripartit of 2003 (CeC replacing ICV obviously)? That was one of the better regional governments in recent years, and it could reconcile Catalan society while pushing for more autonomy. But given what happened in Barcelona it seems like PSC, CeC and ERC can't even get along at the local level over the Catalan national issue.

Also, Puigdemont has just gone off on one against the EU

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171126/433202110437/carles-puigdemont-catalunya-ue-mariano-rajoy.html
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1474 on: November 26, 2017, 08:01:17 AM »

Yeah, a tripartit 2.0 seems like an unlikely possibility given how much ERC and PSC hate each other. If Catalonia's independence wasn't on the table it would easily happen but I think independence is too big of an obstacle.

If secessionsists lose their majority it's one of the more realistic possibilities though. Maybe there's some variant of that like say, an ERC-Podemos minority government supported by JxCat, CUP or PSC depending on the votes

Of course, if secessionists keep their majority that option won't be considered.
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