Spanish elections and politics
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 04:32:31 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Spanish elections and politics
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 35 36 37 38 39 [40] 41 42 43 44 45 ... 93
Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 370735 times)
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,152
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #975 on: June 26, 2016, 03:23:06 PM »

82% in

PP           32.44%       136
PSOE       23.17%        88
Podemos  21.27%        71 
C             12.61%        30

PP and C continue to gain from PSOE.  Podemos losing ground very slowing.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,152
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #976 on: June 26, 2016, 03:24:07 PM »

Podemos now down 4% in Madrid and falling.  PP now up 3% and rising.
Logged
jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 662
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #977 on: June 26, 2016, 03:24:17 PM »

Podemos second in command Ïñigo Errejón admitted that the results are bad for UP.

Starting to look like when all the dust settles the result will be almost identical to last winter except that PP gained 10 or so seats from Cs...Spain remains ungovernable

I am not sure I agree.  PP's gains in terms of vote count and seats gives it more political chips to go for a PP government with support from C and PSOE from the outside.  Question now is is that with or without Rajoy who can legitimately claim that he can and should continue.

The pressure to reach a "stable" agreement will be stronger. The bad thing is that results vindicate Rajoy and likely he will persist on his idea of a Grand Coalition led by himself. 

PSOE and C will never accept a Rajoy led government. So, if Rajoy persists, Spain will indeed remain ungovernable.
Logged
Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,684
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #978 on: June 26, 2016, 03:30:30 PM »

The last-hour Brexit effect is a plausible possibility. Unlike previous polls suggested, the UP potential voters didn't mobilise and it seems that PSOE received some transfers from Podemos. Maybe when the dust settles...

PSOE and C will never accept a Rajoy led government. So, if Rajoy persists, Spain will indeed remain ungovernable.

Pressure from the EC, the economic powers and the 'markets' will be very strong. Establishment parties will be forced to find a solution. It's not easy if Rajoy has the intent to stay. He will say that he's legitimated by popular vote to continue at the head. At least it seems that Pedro Sánchez saves his head; results leave Ciudadanos in a bad place.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,152
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #979 on: June 26, 2016, 03:35:39 PM »

88% in

PP           32.68%       136
PSOE       23.00%        87
Podemos  21.22%        71 
C             12.77%        31

PP and C continue to gain from PSOE.  Podemos losing ground very slowing.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,624
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #980 on: June 26, 2016, 03:41:29 PM »

Are the C's in a bad place, though? They're still gaining, and even if the current results are accurate, they've lost less than 1.5% off their 2015 result and have lost significantly fewer seats than expected.

At the moment, PP/C's are at 168 and still gaining, with PSOE/UP at 158 and declining. (Compare to 2015 totals of 163 and 159). PNV has supported PP government in the past, as has the old CiU (though I suspect the modern CDC may be less willing, but if pressure is on, that may be a possibility too). I think if a few more seats trend right, then PP/C's supported by regional parties becomes a very likely scenario (though I'm sure C's and minor parties would force Rajoy's ouster).

It doesn't make sense to me that PP would rather keep Rajoy and not form government than dump him and be the dominant governmental partner for 4 years.
Logged
Nanwe
Rookie
**
Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #981 on: June 26, 2016, 03:48:17 PM »

The problem is that the PP's internal life is dead. There's only Rajoy and his minions. No one would dare - most likely - to replace him. So it's uncertain.

In Euskadi, maybe the PP can get PNV abstention or support in exchange of the PP doing the same after the regional elections there in the fall.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,152
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #982 on: June 26, 2016, 03:48:48 PM »

93% in

PP           32.85%       136
PSOE       22.84%        86
Podemos  21.17%        71  
C             12.90%        32

PP and C continue to gain from PSOE.  Podemos losing ground very slowing.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,152
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #983 on: June 26, 2016, 03:50:31 PM »

So this election looks like it is about

a) Some 2015 C voters voting PP
b) 2015 PSOE vote staying with PSOE
3) Some 2015 Podemos-IU voters just staying home.
Logged
Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,684
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #984 on: June 26, 2016, 03:50:59 PM »

I think they are in a bad place to force Rajoy's ouster, but their result admittedly is not that bad. C's is losing only 1% of the vote share, while UP is losing 3.3%, PSOE gains 0.8% but losing seats in the final stages of the count and PP is 4.1% up Tongue
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,624
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #985 on: June 26, 2016, 03:56:50 PM »

Down in the weeds for a moment, Tarragona's very amusing six-way tie from 2015 seems like it has repeated itself.

PP/C's are at 169, to PSOE/UP's 156. Including non-Catalonian right-wing regionalists, PP/C's/PNV/PNC is at 175 exactly. Gain one more seat, and the PP-led (but of necessity Rajoy-excluding) right-wing coalition comes into very clear view.
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,612
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #986 on: June 26, 2016, 04:04:16 PM »

With PP and C's now having 169 virtual seats, what are the chances of such a coalition + some other MPs being formed?
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,152
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #987 on: June 26, 2016, 04:04:42 PM »

It is hard to argue for Rajoy to go since this is the third election in a row where he led PP to be the largest party in terms of seats and votes.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,152
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #988 on: June 26, 2016, 04:06:07 PM »

96% in

PP           32.95%       137
PSOE       22.77%        85
Podemos  21.13%        71 
C             12.97%        32

PP and C continue to gain from PSOE.  Podemos losing ground very slowing.
Logged
Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,684
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #989 on: June 26, 2016, 04:08:25 PM »

Down in the weeds for a moment, Tarragona's very amusing six-way tie from 2015 seems like it has repeated itself.

Yes, it's quite amusing. Inside Tarragona province, the different areas vote in a dissimilar way.

PP considers that the result has been a "success" and , according to El País, waits that a weakened PSOE lets Rajoy to govern.
Logged
Dereich
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,892


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #990 on: June 26, 2016, 04:17:11 PM »

It is hard to argue for Rajoy to go since this is the third election in a row where he led PP to be the largest party in terms of seats and votes.

In the most recent poll I could find, Rajoy's net approval rating was -44. He has presided over a large number of corruption scandals. He's even been declared persona non grata by his hometown legislature. No leader with an ounce of sense will ever agree to join him in government. C's, especially, would suffer with the voters who chose them as an alternative to PP and PSOE corruption and aren't willing to support PODEMOS radicalism.
Logged
Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,684
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #991 on: June 26, 2016, 04:20:09 PM »
« Edited: June 26, 2016, 04:23:16 PM by Velasco »

Pablo Iglesias: "results are not satisfactory for us". He said that "political maturity" has to do with managing the good and the bad moments, denies that Podemos has a ceiling and assures that it will go out for victory in the next elections. Iglesias does not regret not having backed the agreement between PSOE and C's because there are programmatic incompatibilities between Podemos and PP or C's.
Logged
Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,922
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #992 on: June 26, 2016, 04:21:49 PM »

How the hell it is possible that Spanish electoral commissions needed only 3.5 hours to count all votes? Do you have any texts in English about counting system in Spain?

http://resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO99999TO.htm?lang=es

I remember that last elections also it was fast but still for me this is unbelievable.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,152
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #993 on: June 26, 2016, 04:22:12 PM »

98% in

PP           32.99%       137
PSOE       22.71%        85
Podemos  21.12%        71  
C             13.01%        32

C crosses 13%
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,152
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #994 on: June 26, 2016, 04:23:35 PM »

How the hell it is possible that Spanish electoral commissions needed only 3.5 hours to count all votes? Do you have any texts in English about counting system in Spain?

http://resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO99999TO.htm?lang=es

I remember that last elections also it was fast but still for me this is unbelievable.

Yes, what is amazing is that they are 69% counted after one hour of counting.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,624
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #995 on: June 26, 2016, 04:24:40 PM »

98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.
Logged
Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,684
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #996 on: June 26, 2016, 04:25:10 PM »

How the hell it is possible that Spanish electoral commissions needed only 3.5 hours to count all votes? Do you have any texts in English about counting system in Spain?

http://resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO99999TO.htm?lang=es

I remember that last elections also it was fast but still for me this is unbelievable.

It seems that Spain is more advanced in that regard than other western countries. If I'm able to find some text in English on the counting system, I'll put a link or something Wink
Logged
Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,684
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #997 on: June 26, 2016, 04:26:18 PM »

98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

What is PNC? Canary Coalition?
Logged
Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,922
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #998 on: June 26, 2016, 04:29:43 PM »

98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

What is PNC? Canary Coalition?

Yeah.

How the hell it is possible that Spanish electoral commissions needed only 3.5 hours to count all votes? Do you have any texts in English about counting system in Spain?

http://resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO99999TO.htm?lang=es

I remember that last elections also it was fast but still for me this is unbelievable.

It seems that Spain is more advanced in that regard than other western countries. If I'm able to find some text in English on the counting system, I'll put a link or something Wink


I would be grateful!
Logged
Bacon King
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,822
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #999 on: June 26, 2016, 04:45:11 PM »

98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

I don't think that coalition would be remotely feasible in the slightest?
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 35 36 37 38 39 [40] 41 42 43 44 45 ... 93  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.054 seconds with 11 queries.