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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 371012 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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E: -7.87, S: -3.83

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« Reply #950 on: June 26, 2016, 02:32:46 PM »

Thanks for the tips. Sorry for being pretty much a noob. Tongue
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jaichind
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« Reply #951 on: June 26, 2016, 02:33:57 PM »

36% in

PP           30.93%       134
PSOE       24.11%        95
Podomos  21.36%        69 
C             11.24%        27
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jaichind
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« Reply #952 on: June 26, 2016, 02:37:20 PM »

Not that much results from Madrid yet but whatever results are in there PSOE is getting a swing from Podomos and C.  This could be decisive if this is indicative of how urban areas might be going.
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jaichind
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« Reply #953 on: June 26, 2016, 02:40:04 PM »

44% in

PP           31.17%       132
PSOE       24.02%        96
Podomos  21.41%        70 
C             11.52%        27

PP and PSOE over-performing exit polls
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Velasco
andi
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« Reply #954 on: June 26, 2016, 02:40:36 PM »

Right now the municipality of Madrid is at 10.3% and the municipality of Barcelona at 19.7%. The count in the Canaries started one hour later and there's less than 1% reported.
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Velasco
andi
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« Reply #955 on: June 26, 2016, 02:43:03 PM »

Anyway the count has reached nearly 47.5% and UP is 2.7% behind PSOE.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #956 on: June 26, 2016, 02:43:20 PM »

Right now the municipality of Madrid is at 10.3% and the municipality of Barcelona at 19.7%. The count in the Canaries started one hour later and there's less than 1% reported.

I see Barcelona at 46,45% reporting?
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Velasco
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« Reply #957 on: June 26, 2016, 02:45:00 PM »

Right now the municipality of Madrid is at 10.3% and the municipality of Barcelona at 19.7%. The count in the Canaries started one hour later and there's less than 1% reported.

I see Barcelona at 46,45% reporting?


The Barcelona province is at 50.89% and Barcelona city at 26.66% right now.
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jaichind
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« Reply #958 on: June 26, 2016, 02:45:10 PM »

47% in

PP           31.32%       134
PSOE       23.96%        94
Podomos  21.39%        69  
C             11.63%        28
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DL
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« Reply #959 on: June 26, 2016, 02:46:59 PM »

Starting to look like when all the dust settles the result will be almost identical to last winter except that PP gained 10 or so seats from Cs...Spain remains ungovernable
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Bacon King
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« Reply #960 on: June 26, 2016, 02:47:09 PM »

47% in
PSOE       23.96%        94
Podomos  21.39%        69 

is it just me or is that a huge seat disparity for two parties so close together in the popular vote?
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jaichind
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« Reply #961 on: June 26, 2016, 02:48:51 PM »

Podemos vote share I suspect will go down from here.  All the places where Podemos are in the top two parties have a much higher share of the vote counted than Spain as a whole.  Podemos has to hope the Madrid count and other urban areas turn around soon in their favor.
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jaichind
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« Reply #962 on: June 26, 2016, 02:49:35 PM »

47% in
PSOE       23.96%        94
Podomos  21.39%        69 

is it just me or is that a huge seat disparity for two parties so close together in the popular vote?

Well, if Podomos has all their votes concentrated in certain parts of the country then this result makes a lot of sense.  This is not a pure PR system.
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jaichind
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« Reply #963 on: June 26, 2016, 02:51:00 PM »

55% in

PP           31.54%       134
PSOE       23.78%        92
Podomos  21.40%        70 
C             11.87%        29

C making up ground mostly at expense of PSOE.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #964 on: June 26, 2016, 02:54:04 PM »

What type of voter is 2016 UPyD voter? Who still votes on them? They will again have worse score than that party with cute cow in logo.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #965 on: June 26, 2016, 02:55:00 PM »

Starting to look like when all the dust settles the result will be almost identical to last winter except that PP gained 10 or so seats from Cs...Spain remains ungovernable
this. LMAO
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jaichind
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« Reply #966 on: June 26, 2016, 02:55:21 PM »

61% in

PP           31.73%       135
PSOE       23.65%        90
Podomos  21.38%        71  
C             12,07%        29

I think seat count will not be far off from this.  Only Madrid is sort of changeable at this stage in terms of seat distribution.  
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jaichind
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« Reply #967 on: June 26, 2016, 02:57:23 PM »

Starting to look like when all the dust settles the result will be almost identical to last winter except that PP gained 10 or so seats from Cs...Spain remains ungovernable

I am not sure I agree.  PP's gains in terms of vote count and seats gives it more political chips to go for a PP government with support from C and PSOE from the outside.  Question now is is that with or without Rajoy who can legitimately claim that he can and should continue.
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jaichind
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« Reply #968 on: June 26, 2016, 03:03:54 PM »

69% in

PP           31.98%       135
PSOE       23.50%        89
Podemos  21.36%        72 
C             12,27%        29

PP and C gaining vote share.  PSOE falling vote share.
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jaichind
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« Reply #969 on: June 26, 2016, 03:06:30 PM »

The trend from Madrid is still PSOE is getting a swing from Podemos and C with 36% of the vote in.  Podemos shot is bolt by forming an alliance with IU.   The net result is Podemos losing vote share and no real gain in terms of seats even though the threshold effect of the IU bloc should have gained it a lot of seats.
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jaichind
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« Reply #970 on: June 26, 2016, 03:10:36 PM »

74% in

PP           32.16%       136
PSOE       23.38%        89
Podemos  21.32%        71  
C             12.40%        29

C still going up.  C's results not as far as they must have feared when they saw the exit polls given that back in 2015 C totally under-performed exit polls.  This time it is Podemos's turn.
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jaichind
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« Reply #971 on: June 26, 2016, 03:13:35 PM »

Podemos falling apart in Madrid.  They are down 3.5% from 2015 and getting worse as more votes comes in.  C is down around 2% since 2015.   PSOE and to some extend PP are the gainers.
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Velasco
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« Reply #972 on: June 26, 2016, 03:14:05 PM »

Podemos second in command Ïñigo Errejón admitted that the results are bad for UP.

Starting to look like when all the dust settles the result will be almost identical to last winter except that PP gained 10 or so seats from Cs...Spain remains ungovernable

I am not sure I agree.  PP's gains in terms of vote count and seats gives it more political chips to go for a PP government with support from C and PSOE from the outside.  Question now is is that with or without Rajoy who can legitimately claim that he can and should continue.

The pressure to reach a "stable" agreement will be stronger. The bad thing is that results vindicate Rajoy and likely he will persist on his idea of a Grand Coalition led by himself. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #973 on: June 26, 2016, 03:18:42 PM »

I most likely do not know what I am talking about.  But based on the turnout patterns I feel the exit poll most likely overestimates Podemos and underestimates PP and PSOE.    I guess we will see.

I now accept my accolades (this is an old forum joke stemming from the 2004 US elections.)
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jaichind
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« Reply #974 on: June 26, 2016, 03:21:43 PM »

I wonder how much effect the post-Brexit market and political (at least in UK) choas had on this election.  If should have driven the voters to go for establishment parties which seems to have taken place.
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