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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 370566 times)
Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #900 on: June 26, 2016, 07:51:18 AM »

Turnout at 14:00 (CET) is 36.86%, almost identical to December. This doesn't mean that figures are going to be the same when polling stations close at 20:00. It could drop in the afternoon... or not.
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Zanas
Zanas46
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« Reply #901 on: June 26, 2016, 09:07:25 AM »

I can't remember if someone has posted links to a good results page.

So, this is the Junta Electoral Central page.

I don't know if some newspapers' pages are better, quicker, if so please post a link.

I'll be attending a special evening organized by Podemos Paris to follow the results! Smiley Whether UP overtakes PSOE or fails miserably, I will most likely be drunk some time this evening...
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Velasco
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« Reply #902 on: June 26, 2016, 09:33:51 AM »

I'll be attending a special evening organized by Podemos Paris to follow the results! Smiley Whether UP overtakes PSOE or fails miserably, I will most likely be drunk some time this evening...

Have a good evening, whatever the results are. I must confess that I got a bit drunk myself tonight. I said to my friends that I was hesitating between the different ballots because, as a good Peronist, I'm ideologically flexible. A little more seriously, I should consider to go to the polling station in a moment.
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Zanas
Zanas46
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« Reply #903 on: June 26, 2016, 09:56:18 AM »

This is the first election in quite some time when I am actually a bit enthusiastic about one of the options. It's getting rarer and rarer... Podemos and IU, with so different backgrounds, actually achieving to work together on a program and ballot repartition, you don't see that often and it gives a little hope. Let's see what's next and what the pueblo thinks !
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jaichind
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« Reply #904 on: June 26, 2016, 10:39:03 AM »

Turnout at 14:00 (CET) is 36.86%, almost identical to December. This doesn't mean that figures are going to be the same when polling stations close at 20:00. It could drop in the afternoon... or not.

It seems by region



Turnout by 2pm was higher relative to 2015 in areas of PP and PSOE strength.
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ag
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« Reply #905 on: June 26, 2016, 10:39:19 AM »

Holding fingers crossed for PSOE.
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jaichind
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« Reply #906 on: June 26, 2016, 11:37:39 AM »

Bloomberg : SPAIN VOTE PARTICIPATION AT 51.17% AT 6.15PM, DOWN FROM DEC.
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jaichind
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« Reply #907 on: June 26, 2016, 11:50:05 AM »

Looks like turnout is down 7% and is a record low.   This should help mchine parties like PP and PSOE.
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Double Carpet
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« Reply #908 on: June 26, 2016, 12:54:59 PM »

TV coverage:

http://www.rtve.es/noticias/mas-24/

Assuming seats similar to Dec 15, what do people think the new government will be?
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jaichind
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« Reply #909 on: June 26, 2016, 12:56:07 PM »

Exit polls rumors are that Podemos overtook PSOE and that C is doing badly. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #910 on: June 26, 2016, 12:59:42 PM »

Exit polls:
PP 117-121
Podemos at 91-95 seats
PSOE 81-85
C 26-30
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jaichind
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« Reply #911 on: June 26, 2016, 01:01:11 PM »

In theory Podemos+PSOE has majority.  But in 2015 exit polls seems to have underestimated PP so we will have to see.
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jaichind
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« Reply #912 on: June 26, 2016, 01:02:49 PM »

GAD3 exit poll has PP 123 Podemos 88 PSOE 85 C 31.  Very close to Podemos+PSOE majority.
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windjammer
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« Reply #913 on: June 26, 2016, 01:05:02 PM »

GAD3 exit poll has PP 123 Podemos 88 PSOE 85 C 31.  Very close to Podemos+PSOE majority.
There are as well some indy leftist regionalist parties right?
I guess that should be enough for a leftwing coalition.
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jaichind
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« Reply #914 on: June 26, 2016, 01:06:12 PM »

GAD3 exit poll has PP 123 Podemos 88 PSOE 85 C 31.  Very close to Podemos+PSOE majority.
There are as well some indy leftist regionalist parties right?
I guess that should be enough for a leftwing coalition.

Main problem here is will PSOE be willing to play second fiddle to Podemos.  Most likely not.
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Double Carpet
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« Reply #915 on: June 26, 2016, 01:06:45 PM »

So, PSOE could either join Podemos-led govt, or grand coalition with PP? Latter less likely?

Also ERC projected 11-12, would they back UP-PSOE gov, or does Catalonia issue get in way?

Iglesias to follow Tsipras as Europe's 2nd radical left PM?

PNV projected 5-6.

PP + C's well short so only governing option for PP is with PSOE?

I think official results site gets going in 1 hour once Canaries close?

Thoughts welcome, thanks!
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windjammer
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« Reply #916 on: June 26, 2016, 01:09:25 PM »

GAD3 exit poll has PP 123 Podemos 88 PSOE 85 C 31.  Very close to Podemos+PSOE majority.
There are as well some indy leftist regionalist parties right?
I guess that should be enough for a leftwing coalition.

Main problem here is will PSOE be willing to play second fiddle to Podemos.  Most likely not.
Well, PSOE and Podemos seem to be really close. Let's see if indeed PSOE will be behind Smiley
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jaichind
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« Reply #917 on: June 26, 2016, 01:10:50 PM »
« Edited: June 26, 2016, 01:16:52 PM by jaichind »

Vote share projections seems to be

PP           28.5%
Podemos  25.6%
PSOE       22.0%
C             11.8%

PP and PSOE same as 2015, C down around 2% and Podemos up around 1.2%
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Bacon King
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« Reply #918 on: June 26, 2016, 01:12:31 PM »

how likely is Pablo Iglesias being elected Prime Minister with these results?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #919 on: June 26, 2016, 01:20:04 PM »

Link to the official vote count?
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jaichind
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« Reply #920 on: June 26, 2016, 01:23:21 PM »

Exit poll graphic from RTVE

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jaichind
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« Reply #921 on: June 26, 2016, 01:24:57 PM »

GAD3 exit poll image graphic

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jaichind
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« Reply #922 on: June 26, 2016, 01:44:37 PM »

I most likely do not know what I am talking about.  But based on the turnout patterns I feel the exit poll most likely overestimates Podemos and underestimates PP and PSOE.    I guess we will see.
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Double Carpet
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« Reply #923 on: June 26, 2016, 01:46:06 PM »

Official vote count is here, will go live at 9pm Spain time once Canaries have closed:

http://resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO99999TO.htm?lang=es
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #924 on: June 26, 2016, 01:49:50 PM »

Official vote count is here, will go live at 9pm Spain time once Canaries have closed:

http://resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO99999TO.htm?lang=es

Thanks!
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