Spanish elections and politics

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Well a lot of that could be applied to the LDP in Japan or ND in Greece, and right-wing populism still exists outside those parties.

[Velasco]

Would not the relative strength of Podemos-IU provoke C -> PP tactical voting?

That's the aim of the PP campaign: appealing to moderate voters to counter the "populist menace". I guess it would depend on the level of polarization in the following two weeks of electoral campaign, which now is officially open. By the moment polls say that PP and C's retain their shares with little variation.

I've always thought the reason that right-wing populism is yet to emerge in Spain is simply that the PP is descended from forces that were outright fascist, is further to the right than a typical European right-wing party, and is better positioned to absorb that sort of anger into itself rather than having a separate party take root.

PP seems to be what we call in French a ''decomplexed'' Right. Its true that Allianza Popular was a party born out of a think-tank that wanted to pursue Francoism (or, more precisely its ideological tenets) through democratic means, and Aznar was a No supporter in the 1977 referendum. But now PP appears to be a catch all Right party from the centre to the extreme.

Sarkozy was also billed as the decomplexed Right in France. In 2007 he managed to destroy the FN vote. So your theory might hold up if we applied this to Spain too. Certainly PP do their best to appeal to that section of society while remaining in the European People's Party framework of a good centre-right conservative. 

Last right-wing populist party in Spain that I heard of was Vox. I think it was a breakaway from PP due to personal disagreements, and didn't gain much traction.

Well, the concept of a right "without complexes" was used by PP in the 90s (if I'm not wrong). However, there wasn't a FN to destroy. By that time José María Aznar had replaced Manuel Fraga in the leadership of the Spanish Right. Fraga was the leader of the former Alianza Popular (AP), which was founded by him together with other members of late Franco cabinets whom where known as Los Siete Magníficos ("The Magnificent Seven"). Initially AP represented a certain attempt of preservation of the Francoist essences by democratic means. The more reformist faction of late Francoism assembled in the UCD alongside with moderate opposition factions. Further to the right the 'true defenders' of the Franco regime's essences gathered in Fuerza Nueva ("New Force", FN), which had a very limited support. So perhaps we could say that FN was the 'outright fascist' party and AP a very conservative one. Between 1977 and 1982 AP was a minor party that represented what was called the "Sociological Francoism". From that year on, AP took advantage of the UCD collapse to expand its base to the centre. However, AP was unable to counter PSOE's hegemony in the 80s. The past of Manuel Fraga, who had styled himself to stances more comparable to classic European conservatism, was always considered a burden. It was said that AP had a glass ceiling or, to be more precise, the expression used was "Fraga's ceiling". Fraga was replaced in 1987 by a certain Antonio Hernández Mancha, who was quite unsuccessful. After a period of internal crisis, Fraga came back provisionally to refund the party in 1989, which was renamed Partido Popular. The Spanish Wikipedia says that the new PP strengthened its neoliberal traits, cutting to some extent its conservative ones. Maybe. In any case, new leader José María Aznar (1990-2004) had the advantage of being younger than Fraga. Despite being a very conservative individual with certain authoritarian tendencies, Aznar was finally successful in giving a more moderate image of PP in the 90s, expanding the party's base more to the centre while the remainders of Spanish Centrism (the Adolfo Suárez's CDS) vanished. In that period PP became in a party that encompassed all the political spectrum from the centre to the far right. The drive of PP between 1996 and 2011 would require a longer explanation. In any case, the recent period of crisis has eroded much of the PP centrist base.

On a brief note, Vox was a rightwing splinter of PP founded by party dissidents whom considered that it was way too centrist in matters like anti-terrorist (ETA) and social policies (abortion, homosexuality, etc). The party was pro-EU and had neoliberal stances on economy, so it's not fully comparable to other European rightwing populist parties. In the Andalusian campaign of 2015 Vox played the anti-islamic card, proclaiming that the left wanted to reestablish the Califate in Córdoba. As for the attempts to assemble a rightwing populist force in Spain, we could continue later.   

[Angel of Death]

Aznar was a No supporter in the 1977 referendum.

There was a referendum in 1976 and one in 1978, but none in 1977.

[Zinneke]

Aznar was a No supporter in the 1977 referendum.

There was a referendum in 1976 and one in 1978, but none in 1977.

78

[Velasco]

General election poll for Catalonia (Total: 47 seats)

GESOP / El Periódico

En Comú Podem 27% (13 seats), PSC 16% (8 seats), ERC 15.7% (8-9 seats), C's 14.7% (7 seats), CDC 11.4% (5-6 seats), PP 10.9% (4-5 seats)

The CIS survey estimates: ECP 14-15 seats, ERC 8-9 seats, PSC 8 seats, CDC 6-7 seats, C's 5 seats, PP 4-5 seats

[Velasco]

Podemos wanted its manifesto to be the "the most-ever read ever" and has chosen the Ikea catalogue format. "Flat-pack policies", says The Grauniad

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/09/podemos-manifesto-ikea-catalogue-flat-pack-policies

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Past week it was launched a documentary film telling the story of Podemos from the foundational assembly in October 2014 to the general elections in December 2015 called Política, Manual de Instrucciones ("Politics, Operating Manual"). Director Fernando León de Aranoa was permitted to film behind the scenes, and the documentary shows lively discussions in party leadership as well more relaxed moments in what El Confidencial calls "organic dissection". Film reviews remark the appearances of second-in-command Ïñigo Errejón, who shows himself an agile and acute analyst.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJ_yv2bqqGo

[Velasco]

More polls

Metroscopia / El País

PP 28.9%, UP 25.4%, PSOE 20.8%, C's 15.9%, Others 9%

Netquest / El Español

PP 28.8%, UP 24.7%, PSOE 21%, C's 15.8%, Others 9.7%

Seats (projection): PP 117, UP 87, PSOE 78, C's 45, Others 23

GAD3/ La Vanguardia

PP 29.8%, UP 24.3%, PSOE 21.4%, C's 14.9%, ERC 2.4%, CDC 1.8%, EAJ-PNV 1.2%, EH Bildu 0.9%, CC 0.3%

Seats: PP 119-122, UP 85-87, PSOE 80-82, C's 40-41, ERC 8-9, CDC 6-7, EAJ-PNV 5, EH Bildu 2, CC 0-1

[Velasco]

Given that this is a key aspect in the present political situation, I made an attempt to translate an Enric Juliana article entitled "the generational gap feeds political uncertainty in Spain" 

Spain lives as no other European country through a strong generational split, fed by the way how the economic crisis has been managed. The strongest duality on the labor market and scanty opportunities for new university licentiates. Continuity of a youth unemployment above 40 %. Precarious employment situation is feeding a strong political mobilization of electors educated and trained after the death of the general Franco: more than twelve million persons, 36 % of the electoral census. The pit is of impressive dimensions and its depth goes in increase. If next June 26 only there were voting the younger than 40, Unidos Podemos would win the elections.

The generational matter is very present today in almost all European countries. The victory of  Brexit in June 23 referendum there is in the hands of the older generations isolationist impulse, still brushed by the echoes of the Second World War. They believe they will age better in an encapsulated country and are very sensitive to anti-German arguments. " Our parents did not wage a war to end in a Germanized Europe ". If it was depending on the younger, the continuity of the United Kingdom in the European Union would be guaranteed. British young people want to have the opportunity to be employed freely in Frankfurt or Paris.

In France young people is shifting again to the left and can torn PS to pieces before the push of the FN, which clots the disaffected of older age. In Italy the generational matter explains Matteo Renzi's meteoric ascent and also his present problems. The PM overcame the PD's old guard under the motto of rottamazione (scrapping). Renzi was promising to dismantle the old ruling class making way for the new generations in a country considerably gerontocratic. Reforms always are difficult and the more dissatisfied young people vote now for the 5 Stars Movement. The Grillini are on the verge of winning the mayoralty of Rome with the support of the young vote. In Portugal youth anger precipitated in October the misfortune of the Pedro Passos Coelho conservative government. Intergenerational tension is a constant in Europe, but Spain is the only country that has seen to emerge, with vigour, two new parties with a strong generational bias.

PP is the undisputed leader among the older than 65, people without studies or only with primary education, as well among small town residents. (With the exception of Andalusia, where people with these profiles vote mainly for the PSOE). Unidos Podemos has a clear lead among voters between 18 and 34, with higher studies and residence in cities over 500k inhabitants. The PSOE comes behind PP as the preferred party for pensioners and electors with poor education. Ciudadanos is not the first party among the younger, but is the favourite one for people between 35 and 44. It scores well among university graduates and workers who had completed vocational training. That say the CIS statistic tables.

PP is the party of pensioners, followed by PSOE. Unidos Podemos spearheads the young tide, flanked by Ciudadanos. The camps are defined and the demographic weight of people above 45 wins (60% of the electoral census).

With serious problems to connect with the older, Podemos has made its first campaign video with elderly people who say not being afraid of a drastic change. The argument put forward is that "the same of always don't win". Mariano Rajoy counts with Andrea Levy and Pablo Casado to address the younger. The PSOE tries to look after female public, its main strong point in the last decade. Ciudadanos keeps the veto to Rajoy, thinking in its older youths that want change.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20160613/402463316281/la-escision-generacional-alimenta-la-incertidumbre-politica-de-espana.html

[Velasco]

A televised debate takes place tonight (22:00 CET) between candidates Mariano Rajoy (PP), Pedro Sánchez (PSOE), Pablo Iglesias (UP) and Albert Rivera (C's).

Live coverage in Spanish

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/06/13/actualidad/1465805590_848142.html

Yesterday took place an economy debate between acting minister Luis de Guindos (PP), Jordi Sevilla (PSOE), Alberto Garzón (UP) and Luis Garicano (C's)

https://www.thespainreport.com/articles/762-160613002015-spanish-parties-clash-on-pensions-unemployment-and-taxes-in-election-economy-debate

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Other sources say that De Guindos and Garzón were slightly better than Sevilla and Garicano, although without a clear winner.

A "women's debate" (I think it's a tad sexist treating women as a minority when they are more than a half of humankind) took place on June 9 between Andrea Levy (PP), Margarita Robles (PSOE), Carolina Bescansa (UP) and Inés Arrimadas (C's). In this debate the mutual accusations between Levy and Robles would have benefitted Bescansa and Arrimadas, according to media reports. Levy is a promising young politician and member of the Parliament of Catalonia who was promoted by Rajoy to the PP national executive committee; Robles is a veteran judge and former secretary of state who runs in second place for Madrid in the PSOE list; Bescansa is the number 2 in the UP list for Madrid as well she's sociologist, electoral analyst and Pablo Iglesias' top aide; Arrimadas was the C's candidate in the Catalan elections of 2015 is the leader of the opposition in Catalonia.

[Velasco]

No clear winner in tonight's debate. Actually it was a pretty boring spectacle (except when candidates discussed corruption) and far less dynamic than the debate held in December. In that occasion Mariano Rajoy refused to attend and sent Deputy PM Sáez de Santamaría.

"Four-way debate suggests little change to Spain’s post-election landscape" says El País

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/06/14/inenglish/1465892738_757804.html

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[Velasco]

GESOP / El Periódico de Catalunya

PP 28% (113-117 seats), UP 24.9% (86-90), PSOE 21% (80-84), C's 14.9% (38-42), Others 11.2% (22-25)

An estimation made by Kiko Llaneras in El Español (updated on June 14) based on his analysis of published polls says that no block will get a majority and the balance of forces would be very similar to that of the December election. UP and PSOE have a 40% probability of reaching 170 seats; PP and C's have a 29% probability of reaching the same figure.

PP 119 seats, UP 87, PSOE 78, C's 42, Others 24 (ERC 9, CDC 7, EAJ-PNV 5, EH Bildu 2, CC 1)

Link to English version:

http://datos.elespanol.com/elecciones-generales/la-cocina-26j/en/

There is an interesting interview in English language with Llaneras ("The Spanish Nate Silver") in The Spain Report, where he talks about the quality of Spanish pollsters, the design of the Spanish electoral system and other issues.

https://www.thespainreport.com/articles/755-160605132019-unidos-podemos-can-win-seats-in-almost-every-province-says-spain-s-nate-silver-kiko-llaneras

Also in that site, interviews with veteran pollster Jaime Miquel and British writer Paul Mason. Miquel says, among other things, that Barcelona Mayor Ada Colau could be the PM of a pluri-national Spain by 2018. I think he has some points, but some of his theories sound to me lacking of subtlety and a bit extravagant. Mason talks about what really happened with Tsipras and Syriza in Greece, the threat to the Hellenic Republic from Turkey, Russia and the Islamic State and other fascinating affairs. The former economic editor of Channel 4 and author of  Postcapitalism: A Guide To Our Future thinks that the Spanish Left has a chance to do "Syriza 2.0".

https://www.thespainreport.com/articles/745-160529150045-spanish-left-has-a-chance-to-do-syriza-2-0-at-general-election-says-british-writer-paul-mason

Maybe or maybe not. Prestigious journalist Iñaki Gabilondo, who is a reference person for the Spanish socialdemocracy, says in his last video column that PSOE must be obliged to choose between guillotine and electric chair. It's a great dilemma and the party's internal division doesn't help at all.

Susana Díaz and her Andalusian clique have damaged the PSOE. From the day after the December elections Díaz and the 'barons' achieved that the narrative put socialists as losers by attacking Pedro Sánchez. Díaz is a conservative socialist that has appeal amongst the rural population in Andalusia, but she's not a candidate with the skills to fight for the lost young and urban vote, particularly when former Andalusian premiers Manuel Chaves and José Antonio Griñán are under investigation. Pedro Sánchez is neither brilliant nor incompetent as political leader; he tries to survive, but he's surrounded by enemies and some people in his entourage is remarkably mediocre. He would like to be like Renzi, just like Albert Rivera. In Asturias, a region with little demographic weight but of symbolic importance for the workers movement, the relationship between the PSOE and Podemos is particularly bad. The PSOE regional leader Javier Fernández is a moral reference for his party. Before the threat of being passed by Unidos Podemos he claims: "¡No pasarán!" "Remember the words at the gates of Dante's Inferno: Lose all hope. PSOE is not PASOK!"  

[Velasco]

A Celeste-Tel poll released by eldiario.es this morning predicts that PSOE has chances of winning more parliamentary seats than Unidos Podemos. This pollster is showing the most favourable estimations for the socialists.

PP 29.8% (121-126 seats), UP 24.9% (80-84), PSOE 22% (83-86), C's 13.8% (35-36), Others 9.1% (23-24)*

* ERC 2.4% (8 seats), CDC 1.7% (6-7), EAJ-PNV 1.2% (6), EH Bildu 0.8% (2), CC 0.3% (1)

[Velasco]

Candidates ignoring effects of Brexit on Spain

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/06/16/inenglish/1466072086_853835.html?rel=cx_articulo#cxrecs_s

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Actually all the candidates have analysed the possible repercussions, but they have not taken his concerns to the public arena.

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On a side note, IU's stance is that Spain should leave because the European Union is a neoliberal project and is unreformable. The Unidos Podemos platform does not include this and other IU stances on issues like NATO membership and monarchy. The Catalan secessionist movement is mainly Pro-EU, with the exception of the anti-capitalist CUP. However, they are looking at Britain with some excitement because they think Brexit could boost the somewhat stalled and confusing independence "process". Last news say that after the CUP rejected in regional parliament the budget plan submitted by the Puigdemont government, Catalan premier announced he will call a motion of confidence after summer holidays.

Here's an interview with Pablo Iglesias in El País.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/06/14/inenglish/1465897947_663542.html

Among other things, Iglesias talks about his role in Podemos (he thinks the party can survive without his charismatic figure), the relationship with PSOE and the new socialdemocratic space that has to be built... and Venezuela. His opinion of Rajoy: "He is a sarcastic guy who performs well at the podium and I think he’s got a lot of experience".

Inexplicably, the English version cuts some questions and replies on the political differences between Iglesias and Errejón, as well one question asking if Podemos has Peronist traits. Iglesias replies: "I would say that yes, Podemos has Peronist traits. Surely the reading that Gramsci makes of Italian Mezzogiorno is something that teaches Ernesto Laclau, intellectual father of Errejón, to comprehend Argentina. And it's necessary to add to this construction the experience of television as producer of common sense. Podemos cannot be explained without the television, but is not only explained by television". At the end, all of us will be Peronists

[Velasco]

Campaign news.

Mariano Rajoy calls to concentrate the "moderate" vote, because if forces are divided "the bad" (Unidos Podemos) will take advantage. C's leader Albert Rivera stated that in neither case he will support a government presided by Rajoy because the acting PM is an obstacle for the regeneration of the institutions (PP is under investigation for illegal funding and Rajoy appears in Bárcenas papers). Rivera's aide and candidate for Barcelona Juan Carlos Girauta extended the veto to Deputy PM Sáez de Santamaría and other close collaborators of Rajoy. Apparently Ciudadanos find more palatable people like the Madrid premier Cristina Cifuentes or the PP's young pup Pablo Casado. In order to prevent that "moderates" go back to PP, the second line of attack is Unidos Podemos. Along these lines, Rivera travelled to Venezuela in the beginning pf the campaign and makes constant calls to "stop populism".

Pablo Iglesias, on his part, stated in a radio interview that he considers Zapatero the best PM since 1977 and calls him occasionally for advice (which is true) in a clear attempt to puzzle socialists. The vindication of the former PM (who Iglesias has criticized for giving way to pressure from the Troika in May 2010) and the claim that Unidos Podemos represents a new form of socialdemocracy have the purpose of attracting more PSOE voters. Both Rivera and Iglesias are pressuring Pedro Sánchez in order that the PSOE candidate says with whom he's going to deal: PP or Unidos Podemos. The latter and El Mundo claim that PSOE "moderates" would be favourable of letting PP govern in case conservatives come first and PSOE is relegated to third place. In that eventuality is very likely that Pedro Sánchez's head will roll, but Mariano Rajoy would have to step down as well to make a deal between PP and PSOE acceptable for the latter.

PSOE is becoming embroiled with Catalonia again. While Pedro Sánchez is proposing a "political agreement" with Catalonia that recognizes its "singularity", Susana Díaz is campaigning in Andalusia claiming that she won't permit that region gets more "privileges" (as well she's attacking Podemos and its Catalan franchise led by Ada Colau). PSOE top candidate in Barcelona Meritxell Batet, who stated that the socialist platform is more close to Unidos Podemos than to C's, is not very happy with Susana Díaz.

Latest results of daily trackings released by El Periódico (GESOP) and eldiario.es (Celeste-Tel)

GESOP

PP 28.3% (114-118 seats), UP 24.2% (84-88), PSOE 21.2% (80-84), C's 15.6% (40-44), Others 10.7% (22-25)

Celeste-Tel

PP 30% (123-128 seats), UP 24.8% (82-87), PSOE 21.5% (83-86), C's 13.4% (32-34), Others 9.4% (22)*

* ERC 2.4% (8 seats), CDC 1.7% (6), EAJ-PNV 1.2% (5), EH Bildu 0.8% (2), CC 0.3% (1)

Another couple of polls

DYM / El Confidencial

PP 29% (116-117), UP 24.9% (85-89), PSOE 21% (81-82), C's 15.2% (40), Others 9.9% (25-27)*

* ERC 9-10, CDC 8, EAJ-PNV 5-6, EH Bildu 2, CC 1

Metroscopia / El País

PP 29% (114), UP 26% (93), PSOE 20.5% (82), C's 14.5% (39), Others 10% (22)

[Zanas]

The general trend seems to be UP opening a real gap ahead of PSOE, and slowly closing in on PP, while probably ending a bit too short. And C's are in danger of not even getting the 13.9 they got last time, and even if they do it won't matter cause the blocs above are bigger and this means fewer seats for them anyway.

[MaxQue]

PSOE deserves bad results. Ironically, they would be in a much better shape if they lost Andalousia elections a few years ago.

Susana Diez and her ilk are the reason why left-wing parties are in bad shape in Europe. Because of people like her. Honestly, real left-wingers should vote PP in the next Andalousia elections, so she just disappear.

[Velasco]

The general trend seems to be UP opening a real gap ahead of PSOE, and slowly closing in on PP, while probably ending a bit too short. And C's are in danger of not even getting the 13.9 they got last time, and even if they do it won't matter cause the blocs above are bigger and this means fewer seats for them anyway.

Apparently that's the trend in some polls. It's clear that the alliance between Podemos and IU is beneficial for them in terms of parliamentary seats. However, a Netquest poll released two days ago by El Español says that conservatives take a clear lead. PP and C's would have more probability of reaching 170 seats than UP and PSOE (40% to 30%):

PP 30.4% (125), UP 24% (85), PSOE 20.4% (75), C's 15.2% (42), Others 10% (23)

In contrast a Sondaxe poll released yesterday by La Voz de Galicia predicts that the left is on the verge of a majority and C's will perform badly:

PP 29.2% (121), UP 26.1% (90), PSOE 21.4% (85), C's 12.9% (34), Others 10.4% (20)

Today's Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo estimates a virtual tie between the left and the right blocks. Given that this pollster has a slight PP bias, maybe blues won't reach 30%. Caution: there's one week left and unpredictable turns can happen.

PP 30.5% (124-129), UP 24.8% (86-92), PSOE 20% (73-78), C's 14.1% (35-40), Others 10.6% (19.24)

At the end a few thousand votes swinging to one party or block to another in the key provinces will decide the outcome. In fact there is not a single election but 52 different elections (one for every district).

La Vanguardia releases a GAD3 poll for the general election in Catalonia:

En Comú Podem 28.4% (13-14 seats), ERC 15.7% (8-9), PSC-PSOE 15.1% (7-8), C's 13.2% (5-6), CDC 12.1% (6-7), PP 11.8% (5-6)

According to GAD3 75.4% is in favour of a referendum to decide the future of Catalonia. 48% would vote in favour of independence, but only 26% prefers that option to a constitutional reform. More than 65% think that the Catalan and the Spanish governments should engage a negotiation, even if that implies to park the independence demand. 44% of ERC voters and 70% of CDC voters would be in favour of a 'pragmatic' solution that strengthens self-government.

[Velasco]

PSOE deserves bad results. Ironically, they would be in a much better shape if they lost Andalousia elections a few years ago.

... And PP deserves to dissapear into a black hole. However, if that unlikely event occurs the People's Party should have to be replaced by other thing that represents the same social groups and interests.

[Velasco]

Leading party by province in the December 2015 general election. Circles represent the 52 most populous municipalities of Spain.

El Mundo has an interesting series depicting four municipalities that are strongholds of every one of the main parties. Articles are in Spanish, but every one features nice maps that show party results at municipal level.

Lalín: The PP's "Kilometre Zero". Located in central Galicia (Pontevedra province). PP got 68.46% in 2011 and 52.39% in 2015.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2016/06/16/57601f57e5fdea9f618b459e.html

Almonte: The PSOE's haven. Located in Western Andalusia (Huelva province). PSOE got 44.17% in 2011 and 45.65% in 2015.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2016/06/15/575fe682268e3e024b8b4647.html

Ripollet: The Pablo Iglesias' 'purple belt'. Located in Metropolitan Barcelona. Former PSC stronghold. Working class. Podemos got 36.15% in 2015. PSC got 35.48% in 2011 and 20.06% in 2015.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2016/06/18/576295f0268e3e79748b4646.html

Arroyomolinos: Orange vote on blue background. Located in the Madrid region. Former PP stronghold. Young middle class families. C's got 31.67% in 2015. PP got 55.31% in 2011 and 29.03% in 2015.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2016/06/17/57626c7a268e3e7a748b4607.html

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Why is Rivas-Vaciamadrid a stronghold of the left?

[Zanas]

Why is Rivas-Vaciamadrid a stronghold of the left?

Well it's the next city on the road after Vallecas, which has always been an organized labor stronghold, and also 3/4 of the city seem to be ecologically protected areas, so I guess it's the kind of mushroom suburb that will attract more bobo affluent eco-freindly families than suburbs like Majadahonda or Pozuelo de Alarcon in the West of the agglomeration.

[Simfan34]

PSOE deserves bad results. Ironically, they would be in a much better shape if they lost Andalousia elections a few years ago.

... And PP deserves to dissapear into a black hole. However, if that unlikely event occurs the People's Party should have to be replaced by other thing that represents the same social groups and interests.

...which is?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How long till the PSOE does the honest thing and renames itself the Country Party?

[Nanwe]

Why is Rivas-Vaciamadrid a stronghold of the left?

Well it's the next city on the road after Vallecas, which has always been an organized labor stronghold, and also 3/4 of the city seem to be ecologically protected areas, so I guess it's the kind of mushroom suburb that will attract more bobo affluent eco-freindly families than suburbs like Majadahonda or Pozuelo de Alarcon in the West of the agglomeration.

Not quite. Rivas was largely built by housing cooperatives aligned with CCOO and UGT (Spain's main union, associated to the PCE and the PSOE respectively) in the 1990s and as a result, this has resulted in a very left-wing environment. Obviously the closeness to Madrid, the rise of single-family homes and the dominance of the left in the city means that it has attracted, as you say, bobo-style dwellers.

From what I understand however, it is a rather different kind of left (more ecological, social) than the one you find in the red belt south of Madrid (Getafe, Leganes, Parla, etc.).

How long till the PSOE does the honest thing and renames itself the Country Party?

Never? The PP is the real countryside party (also 65+ and uneducated people), the PSOE is more of a 'Southern (Andalucia+Extremadura) Party', even if it's weak in the Andalucian cities (usually, with the exception of Sevilla and Córdoba, all right-wing)

[Velasco]

PSOE deserves bad results. Ironically, they would be in a much better shape if they lost Andalousia elections a few years ago.

... And PP deserves to dissapear into a black hole. However, if that unlikely event occurs the People's Party should have to be replaced by other thing that represents the same social groups and interests.

...which is?

PP resists because is the only party that represents certain conservative segments of the population (rich, elderly, people fearful of change that likes order), but is in a bad way because society has present corruption scandals and other affairs. Younger people leaning to the right but wanting change hesitate between C's and PP. Spanish conservatives should better clean and convert their house, because nobody knows if new threats are looming on the horizon (in the form of rightwing populism, for instance).

As for the PSOE, under Susana Díaz they are at risk of becoming in the "Southern Country Party" (a trend that has already begun). That woman does not represent any kind of renewal, IMO. She has grown in a party's culture that believes in the supremacy of the apparatus. However Mrs Díaz is very ambitious and has a remarkable vigour, so she must not be understated. Given its territorial implementation and structure, it's unlikely that PSOE becomes in PASOK... but it would become in a party that complements majorities, instead of a party that leads governments.