Spanish elections and politics

[Nanwe]

What are the odds of a new election?

My personal opinion is 50:50.

[Velasco]

What are the odds of a new election?

My personal opinion is 50:50.

That's too optimistic, IMO. I wouldn't suffer another campaign, but I can't see how the different parties are going to prevent it. My bet os 80:20, just to  give some chance to Sánchez.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If I was the Spanish left (or even just a "reformist") I'd muscle behind a big unity ticket just for the senate to stop PP just grabbing it by default.

[Zanas]

If I was the Spanish left (or even just a "reformist") I'd muscle behind a big unity ticket just for the senate to stop PP just grabbing it by default.

Yeah, but there's no "Spanish left". There are "Spanish lefts", and they are somewhat drifting apart rather than coming together.

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez loses first investiture vote.

Yes 130, No 219, Abstain 1

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/02/inenglish/1456941827_019897.html

This morning Mariano Rajoy and Pablo Iglesias launched harsh attacks on the socialist candidate

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/02/inenglish/1456919623_028253.html

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[Lumine]

Assuming Sánchez loses the second vote as well (as it seems likely), would that mean new elections right away? Or would Rajoy and/or Sánchez get another chance?

[Velasco]

If I was the Spanish left (or even just a "reformist") I'd muscle behind a big unity ticket just for the senate to stop PP just grabbing it by default.

Yeah, but there's no "Spanish left". There are "Spanish lefts", and they are somewhat drifting apart rather than coming together.

I would rather like a PSOE-Podemos-IU joint list to the fycking Senate. Given that Spanish Senate is irrelevant, an obstacle to reforms, a thorn in the side of all of us, etcetera... why lefties can't put aside their party differences in order to not give away majority to PP? Sadly, I haven't an answer for this question. There is a precedent in Catalonia, where lefitst parties (PSC, PSUC/ICV and sometimes ERC, I believe) used to run in a joint list for the Upper House called Entesa. However, in the last election En Comú Podem and PSC ran their own lists.

Assuming Sánchez loses the second vote as well (as it seems likely), would that mean new elections right away? Or would Rajoy and/or Sánchez get another chance?

From now on Rajoy and Sánchez (or whoever is commissioned by King Felipe) have exactly two months to reach an agreement with other parties and pass another investiture session. In case nobody is elected  until May 2, a new election will be triggered on June 26.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Italy 2013, I tell you...

[Nanwe]

I's interesting how the duet Errejón-Iglesias operates. Iglesias is generally nasty and yesterday he essentially gave an electoral campaign speech going back to 40 years ago and then telling the PSOE they - and their iconic Felipe González - are the party of the 'cal viva' (reference to the GAL) to Errejón face of utter dismay at the reference. In any case, that was an extremely harsh tone and may have burnt any bridges or thrown the PSOE to the PP, which is not necessarily something Podemos may dislike.

In any case, despite all their pretension, reaching a left-wing agreement was always a difficult thing, after all, it requires a certain degree of consensus in an impossible topic, the Catalan referendum, at best you can have a dissimulated one through a constitutional referendum on a federal structure. But that's unacceptable to ERC and CDC (though maybe not for Homs, but that's always the double game of CiU in Madrid and Barcelona). But basically the issue here is Podemos.  IU doesn't want elections, Compromís and PSOE more or less have a finished deal regarding improved financing for Valencia (understandably since they are the most affected region by the current system of regional financing) and some stuff about Benidorm (?) and En Mare will need the PSdG's support soon.

Some kind of PSOE-C's-Podemos tripartite government would be best, but probably unreachable. In any case, Sánchez investiture has changed the frame of political discourse by enjoying the capacity of displaying his message in the tribune, and I think that will favour him and probably Rajoy should have accepted the King's invitation to form a government.

[Velasco]

I's interesting how the duet Errejón-Iglesias operates. Iglesias is generally nasty and yesterday he essentially gave an electoral campaign speech going back to 40 years ago and then telling the PSOE they - and their iconic Felipe González - are the party of the 'cal viva' (reference to the GAL) to Errejón face of utter dismay at the reference. In any case, that was an extremely harsh tone and may have burnt any bridges or thrown the PSOE to the PP, which is not necessarily something Podemos may dislike.

It's possible that reference to the GAL (an obscure counter-terrorist group acting in the 80s) and the quicklime ("cal viva") used to cover the bodies of alleged terrorists Lasa and Zabala was the product of heating. Apparently PSOE backbenchers were booing Pablo Iglesias while he was speaking and that enervated him. Then he reacted saying that Felipe González (former PM is a fierce enemy of Podemos and has said aubergines want to finish democracy and that Iglesias = Lenin 3.0) has quicklime in his hands. Significantly, Podemos number two Íñigo Errejón raised his eyebrows.

On the GAL:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GAL_(paramilitary_group)

Killing of Lasa and Zabala

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Lasa_and_Zabala

Enric Juliana says that quicklime will erode the impossible relationship between PSOE and Podemos, for the reasons explained in the article below (Spanish)

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20160303/40158175629/llamamiento-a-la-rebelion.html

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It's not clear that a new election is going to be a good thing for Podemos.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If I was the Spanish left (or even just a "reformist") I'd muscle behind a big unity ticket just for the senate to stop PP just grabbing it by default.

Yeah, but there's no "Spanish left". There are "Spanish lefts", and they are somewhat drifting apart rather than coming together.

I would rather like a PSOE-Podemos-IU joint list to the fycking Senate. Given that Spanish Senate is irrelevant, an obstacle to reforms, a thorn in the side of all of us, etcetera... why lefties can't put aside their party differences in order to not give away majority to PP? Sadly, I haven't an answer for this question. There is a precedent in Catalonia, where lefitst parties (PSC, PSUC/ICV and sometimes ERC, I believe) used to run in a joint list for the Upper House called Entesa. However, in the last election En Comú Podem and PSC ran their own lists.

How about a common Senate list called "Abolish the Senate"? That could be pretty popular amongst politician weary Spaniards.

Also I don't want Catalonia to break away (it seems the primary argument is that Catalans are angry about "layabout Extramadurans") but PSOE-C's-PP are being really stupid about the whole affair. It's clear a (small) majority of Catalans would vote in a referednum "No" as shown by the, err, election that was framed as a de facto indyref by ERC/CiU (until they lost, and claimed that the gerrymandered seat count was enough to be a mandate). But the STRONK STATE stubbornness of the Madrid parties means the Catalan government can just carry on with its mandateless roadmap towards independence and even posture as (relatively) organised compared to Madrid.  Madness!

[Velasco]

What happens now?

Podemos and PP will seek new talks with PSOE in case tomorrow's vote fails (take it for granted)

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/03/inenglish/1457016587_480211.html

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While the PSOE-C's agreement (or the Operation 'Big Centre', as Enric Juliana calls it) has failed in the ongoing investiture vote, there are consistent rumours pointing that IBEX 35 listed companies liked it. I think it's clear that Albert Rivera seeks a Grand Coalition agreement without Mariano Rajoy (C's leader called PP MPs to rebel against acting PM in yesterday's speech).

Mariano Rajoy was very harsh and arrogant in his speech because he knows that many people considers him a political corpse, a man from another era. He sought to galvanize his own ranks as well. Many people in PP is pretty confused with current events and  is resented with the key role enjoyed by the beleaguered Pedro Sánchez, once Rajoy decided not attempting investiture.

PNV parliamentary spokesman pointed the reasons why PSOE-C's agreement was condemned to fail to convince leftist groups. Basically the agreement went into excesive detail, leaving little room to negotiate with Podemos, IU and Compromís. Above all, the agreement's staging was very solemn ("it's an historic day", etcetera). Such solemnity was a condition imposed by Rivera, who has stated clearly that his project is not compatible with that of Podemos and sought PP's abstention unsucessfully in this investiture vote.

As for Podemos and the other leftist parties:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/03/inenglish/1456991257_812609.html

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However, relations between PSOE and Podemos might well have broken down after yesterday's dogfight.

This morning Madrid Mayoress Manuela Carmena appealed for a deal between leftist parties.

[Velasco]

Madness!

This sums it up pretty well.

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez loses second investiture vote. Two months left to reach a new agreement or holding fresh elections in June.

Yes 131, No 219

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/04/inenglish/1457113642_086717.html

[Velasco]

The deal between PSOE and Ciudadanos remains in effect. Pedro Sánchez and Albert Rivera announced they intend to attend together meetings with other party leaders, with the deal signed by their respective parties as a basis for negotiations. Mariano Rajoy dislikes that and has said he wants to call Pedro Sánchez alone for a first meeting to retake initiative after the latter's failed investiture attempt.

War of nerves between PSOE and Podemos. Podemos secretary general Pablo Iglesias assures he's not going to "play the PSOE's charade" and rejects joint negotiations with reds and oranges.  In a previous interview with El País, Pedro Sánchez stated that he ignores the reason of Iglesias' "hatred" of PSOE in allusion to their clash in past week debate at the Congress of Deputies. Now PSOE is increasing pressure on Podemos; spokesperson Antonio Hernando warns that socialists could break deals with Podemos in local councils:

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/03/06/actualidad/1457288305_298961.html

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King Feiipe is not going to start another round of consultations with parliamenrary parties, until the Speaker of the Congress of Deputies tells him that one of the possible candidates has garnered enough support to pass the investiture. In this phase the king is not bound to commission anybody. In case no candidate is able to form a government within two months, the king will be compelled to dissolve the Cortes and call a fresh general election.

The best summary of events so far in La Vanguardia (Spanish)

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20160306/40232248623/laberinto-espanol-asunto-europeo.html

[SPQR]

Italy 2013, I tell you...

The Podemos-M5S comparison seems to hold quite well,as of now.

[Velasco]

Italy 2013, I tell you...

The Podemos-M5S comparison seems to hold quite well,as of now.

I'm far from being a Pablo Iglesias fan at this point, but I beg to differ. There is a world of differences between the inarticulate 5 Stelle Movement and the Spanish purple party, which certainly has to solve internal contradictions and strengthen its territorial structure.

As for the political situation, even though there are some similarities there is an important difference between the Spanish and Italian political systems that the article I linked before addresses. While in Italy there exists a 'perfect bicameralism' and the Prime Minister is relatively weak, in Spain is different. Here the Congress of Deputies has precedence over the Senate and the PM has nearly presidential powers. Unlike in Italy, in Spain the PM can dissolve the parliament and the only way to take power from him or her is through a 'constructive' motion of censure with an alternative candidate. In short, it's much more difficult to oust a PM in Spain than in Italy once he or she takes office.

[SPQR]

Italy 2013, I tell you...

The Podemos-M5S comparison seems to hold quite well,as of now.

I'm far from being a Pablo Iglesias fan at this point, but I beg to differ. There is a world of differences between the inarticulate 5 Stelle Movement and the Spanish purple party, which certainly has to solve internal contradictions and strengthen its territorial structure.

Their hatred towards the main centre-left party (which should be its natural,and perhaps only,ally) and pretending to be for "a new kind of politics" while acting in a purely tactical way reminds me of M5S.

[Velasco]

Italy 2013, I tell you...

The Podemos-M5S comparison seems to hold quite well,as of now.

I'm far from being a Pablo Iglesias fan at this point, but I beg to differ. There is a world of differences between the inarticulate 5 Stelle Movement and the Spanish purple party, which certainly has to solve internal contradictions and strengthen its territorial structure.

Their hatred towards the main centre-left party (which should be its natural,and perhaps only,ally) and pretending to be for "a new kind of politics" while acting in a purely tactical way reminds me of M5S.

That hatred is mutual, in any case. There is a part of PSOE fiercely opposed to approaching Podemos, which includes the party's 'old senate' led by former PM Felipe González and regional leaders like Andalusia premier Susana Díaz. The intelligentsia and the media linked to PSOE have a deep distrust of the insurgent party. Pedro Sánchez is bounded by the resolution of the PSOE's Federal Committee, which in practice prevents him from reaching a substantial agreement with Podemos. Extended thinking in PSOE is that programmatic agreements with Podemos are dangerous for the party. Only the PSOE's left wing is openly favourable to form a coalition government with Podemos, IU and Compromís. On the other hand, the deal between PSOE and the centre-right Ciudadanos is motivated by tactical needs. Pedro Sánchez seeks to become stronger in his own party, as well to neutralise Podemos. Keep in mind that election results placed PSOE and Podemos very close to one another: there is an ongoing battle for the hegemony of the Spanish left.

As for Podemos, attitudes towards PSOE are not homogeneous. The left wing of the party is openly advocating for new elections. The party's ruling wing seems to be divided, more in the forms than in the substance, between supporters of Pablo Iglesias and Íñigo Errejón. The latter represents a 'possibilistic' (some say 'socialdemocratic') faction more favourable to approaching PSOE, which maybe regrets Pablo Iglesas' "maximalism" and "aggressiveness". Such differences appear to be strategical, not ideological.

On the other hand, comparisons between Podemos and MS5 are not adequate beyond the ambiguous characterisation of 'protest party', a certain 'populist gene' and the use of social networks. Podemos was founded by a core of political scientists with a Marxist background whom were in the IU's environs, while the Beppe Grillo's movement is antipolitical. However, Podemos is not a Communist or a Marxist party. It's more an experiment or an 'unidentified object', the amalgamation of heterogeneous factions and people whom never felt represented by the 'institutional left'.

The rivalry between PSOE and Podemos may be more related to the old rivalry between socialist and communist parties in Western Europe, although there is not an exact parallel because Podemos is not the PCE.

[Velasco]

Polls.

Celeste-Tel

PP 28.3%, PSOE 22.4%, Podemos 19.4%, C's 15.6%, IU-UP 4.6%, ERC 2.5%, DL 1.9%, EAJ-PNV 1.1%

GESOP

PP 26.4%, PSOE 21.9%, Podemos 18.1%, C's 17.8%, IU-UP 5.9%, ERC 2.4%, DL 1.5%, Others 6%

Invymark

PP 28.5%, Podemos 21.5%, PSOE 20.8%, C's 14.3%, IU-UP 4.3%, Others 10.6%

Metroscopia

PP 26%, PSOE 23.1%, C's 19.5%, Podemos 16.8%, IU-UP 5.4%, Others 9.2%

Sondaxe

PP 28.6%, PSOE 22%, Podemos 19.1%, C's 15.6%, IU-UP 4.2%, ERC 2.5%, DL 2.1%, EAJ-PNV 1.2%

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Are there crosstabs in these polls? I assume that the two new parties are supported by the young, and PPSOE by the elderly?

[Velasco]

Are there crosstabs in these polls? I assume that the two new parties are supported by the young, and PPSOE by the elderly?

Some pollsters use to release the full crosstabs, but I haven't found for these yet. Indeed, there's a clear generational gap consistently recorded by polls. Support for new parties is very strong among the young and decreases sharply in the eldest segment of the electorate (above 45 years). In contrast PP has a clear advantage in the segment above 60 years, while it's the 4th party among the aged between 18 and 25 years. Also, vote for new parties is predominantly urban. PSOE has a clear problem with the urban vote, as evidenced in the last general election. The main base of support for PSOE lies in small and midsized towns and is prevalently located in the south of Spain. 

According to the GESOP poll released by El Periódico, main vote transfers from December 20 elections would be: 10% from PP to C's, 10% from PSOE to C's and 10% from Podemos to IU.

Preferred coalitions (GESOP)

Support for a PP-PSOE-C's coalition is stronger among the elderly and is the preferred option in all regions but Catalonia and the Basque Country. The left block is preferred by the younger.

[Velasco]

El País: "Socialists confident divisions in Podemos will deliver abstention"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/14/inenglish/1457945418_530187.html

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Also, Podemos is facing some problems in certain regional organizations. Recently 1/3 of the Madrid regional executive (apparently aligned with Íñigo Errejón) resigned because of differences with Luis Alegre, the regional secretary general and reportedly aligned with Pablo Iglesias. Regional organisations in Catalonia and Galicia are facing a crisis. In both regions, the regional alliances En Comú Podem (Catalonia) and En Marea (Galicia) would become eventually in separate parties in a process driven by Barcelona Mayor Ada Colau and the Galician nationalist leader Xose Manuel Beiras.

It's clear that Podemos is facing a growth crisis, which is normal in a new party that has emerged so fast. The management of regional alliances is quite complicated as well. However, I'd be cautious about the alleged rift between supporters of Iglesias and Errejón. Both appear to have tactical differences, but they have a long time friendship that can prevent a schism in the organization.

According to this report from El Diario (Spanish): "There are supporters of Iglesias and Errejón. But not only. There are other factions, groups, personal and political affinities".

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/familias-discursos-organizativos-Podemos-investidura_0_492751279.html

In other news, Pedro Sánchez will meet with Catalan premier Carles Puigdemont. Ciudadanos threats to drop alliance with Socialists if they negotiate a referendum:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/14/inenglish/1457966521_325425.html

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[Velasco]

Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias dismisses top party official

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/16/inenglish/1458116912_366232.html

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[Antonio the Sixth]

Tell me again about how Podemos is so different from M5S.