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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 370710 times)
Velasco
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« Reply #725 on: February 09, 2016, 09:43:11 AM »

PSOE released a document yesterday

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/08/inenglish/1454943596_857958.html

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Finally the Board of the Congress agreed to rectify the seating location of Podemos MPs. This is the final allocation:



In other news, the Noós corruption trial restarts. King Felipe's sister Cristina de Borbón will be the last to take the stand. Main defendants are her husband Iñaki Urdangarín, former regional politicians from Valencia, Balearic Islands and Madrid and several businessmen.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/09/inenglish/1455005745_805985.html

PP withdrew former Mayoress of Valencia Rita Barberá from the chairmanship of the Senate's Constitutional Commission, but placed her in the Standing Committee. In case elections have to be repeated, Barberá will retain her position as member of the Upper House. Given that legislators and other elected officials enjoy a special jurisdiction in Spain, that appointment seeks to protect her from the implications of the new corruption scandal involving 9 out of 10 current councilors of the Popular Party in the city of Valencia.. In any case, the woman who was once a "PP icon" and the "Mayoress of Spain" has fallen from grace in her own party. 
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Velasco
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« Reply #726 on: February 14, 2016, 11:28:42 AM »

Esperanza Aguirre resigns as regional leader of PP in Madrid, leaving Mariano Rajoy in bad place. "Corruption is killing us. I assume the political responsibility". Three days ago, the Guardia Civil (Spanish military police) registered Madrid PP HQs in search for illegal party funding evidence.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #727 on: February 14, 2016, 12:35:39 PM »
« Edited: February 14, 2016, 12:39:40 PM by CrabCakes »

Y'know I joked about PP being a criminal enterprise masquerading as a party? I'm starting to think that wasn't hyberbole, lol.

Meanwhile in Madrid, two puppeters have been arrested for making some deranged satire involving murder, rape and the ETA, after their show was accidentally marketed to kiddies
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #728 on: February 14, 2016, 02:14:49 PM »


WHAT
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Nanwe
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« Reply #729 on: February 14, 2016, 04:05:16 PM »
« Edited: February 14, 2016, 04:30:49 PM by Nanwe »

Esperanza Aguirre resigns as regional leader of PP in Madrid, leaving Mariano Rajoy in bad place. "Corruption is killing us. I assume the political responsibility". Three days ago, the Guardia Civil (Spanish military police) registered Madrid PP HQs in search for illegal party funding evidence.

Surprising. Cifuentes must be so happy.
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Velasco
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« Reply #730 on: February 14, 2016, 04:27:26 PM »


Puppeteers were released a couple of days ago. They were arrested on baseless arguments. In my opinion, the arrest was politically motivated.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/10/inenglish/1455119040_652426.html

The whole incident is shameful. It's the consequence of restrictive security laws (the infamous 'gag law', the anti-terrorist law), a taboo on ETA terrorism, political correctness... and obviously it has been used by conservative media in Madrid as a weapon against the local government (Ahora Madrid, a platform that includes Podemos). A more or less irrelevant error in the program of events (the show was a bit strong for children, and that is all) becoming in an artificially inflated political scandal. All the Spanish Right screaming blue murder and blah, blah, blah.

Esperanza Aguirre resigns as regional leader of PP in Madrid, leaving Mariano Rajoy in bad place. "Corruption is killing us. I assume the political responsibility". Three days ago, the Guardia Civil (Spanish military police) registered Madrid PP HQs in search for illegal party funding evidence.

Surprising. Cifuentes must be so happy.

It's a resignation with a trick. Aguirre will continue as Madrid councilor, leading the opposition against Manuela Carmena. I'm afraid that she's not going to quit definitely.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #731 on: February 14, 2016, 04:34:04 PM »

Velasco, you must realise that to this day that ETA and their victims is very much a sensitive topic for the right-wing electorate. It's their version of political correctness (the left has their own, but we never talk of the ones the right has), but the play was certainly of bad taste, but not to keep two nobodies in prison for 5 days without bail over a play.

But the PP does what it does best, politicise ETA, even after it's basically dead. I wonder what they'll do once that boogeyman is gone. Venezuela is not so psychologically strong.

Anyhow, poll of polls (12/02):

PP: 28.2 (-0.5), PSOE: 21.6 (-0.4), Podemos: 20.9 (+0.3), C's: 15.9 (+2), IU: 3.9 (+0.2)

Although this fails to take into account the recent string of PP corruption scandals in Madrid, Valencia and Murcia (minor, but right on time for Rajoy's visit to Murcia).
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Velasco
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« Reply #732 on: February 14, 2016, 04:37:05 PM »

Yes, I realise. As you say, bad taste is not enough motivation for five days of solitary confinement under the anti-terrorist law.
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Velasco
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« Reply #733 on: February 15, 2016, 03:42:13 PM »

Investiture session scheduled to begin on March 2; vote will take place the following day. Pedro Sánchez told Speaker Patxi López that he hopes to have garnered enough support by then.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/15/inenglish/1455531959_507383.html

Meanwhile, Pablo Iglesias presented a document to the media. It's the Podemos counter-offer to the document submitted by socialists days ago, setting priorities for negotiation. The purple party advocates for "urgent changes" in government restructuring. Also, the paper describes the role Pablo Iglesias should have as Deputy Prime Minister and demands a Catalan referendum at the beginning of the term.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/15/inenglish/1455547524_271299.html

PSOE spokesman Antonio Hernando reacted to this with "perplexity", stating that Pablo Iglesias seems to ignore his role in the present situation. In other words, he said that Pedro Sánchez is the one who must take the initiative in negotiations, given that he has the commission to form a government.

On the other hand, PSOE and IU agreed a number of measures including electoral reform and the repeal of Labour laws passed by PP. IU urges Podemos to negotiate, as well to abandon the "red line" drawn on the Catalan referendum.

In other news, Madrid premier Cristina Cifuentes will assume regional leadership of PP after the resignation of Esperanza Aguirre and until a new regional congress takes place.
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« Reply #734 on: February 15, 2016, 04:34:06 PM »

On the other hand, PSOE and IU agreed a number of measures including electoral reform and the repeal of Labour laws passed by PP. IU urges Podemos to negotiate, as well to abandon the "red line" drawn on the Catalan referendum.

A nationwide proportional system that would give IU more seats?
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Nanwe
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« Reply #735 on: February 16, 2016, 02:28:49 AM »

On the other hand, PSOE and IU agreed a number of measures including electoral reform and the repeal of Labour laws passed by PP. IU urges Podemos to negotiate, as well to abandon the "red line" drawn on the Catalan referendum.

A nationwide proportional system that would give IU more seats?

Yes, but it cannot happen. Although constitutional reforms don't fix much, despite our obsession with them, electoral reform, if one wants to move towards a very different system, does require constitutional reform because the Constitution establishes the province as the basis electoral unit. That hurts IU, which does not have enough votes to successfully concentrate them. At best a mild electoral reform (upping the number of MPs to 400, allocating 1 instead of 2 seats per province) could improve their situation, but nothing drastic.

Personally I have my very sincere doubts about whether that would be a good system in the first place.
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« Reply #736 on: February 16, 2016, 05:34:52 AM »

Couldn't they keep the provinces but stick a top-up list on the top?
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Velasco
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« Reply #737 on: February 16, 2016, 01:35:02 PM »

Couldn't they keep the provinces but stick a top-up list on the top?

IU proposed introducing leveling seats. Currently the Congress of Deputies has 350 seats, but the Constitution allows as much as 400. Hence the Lower House could have 350 fixed seats (elected provincially) and 50 additional adjustment seats (nationwide). PSOE agreed with the proposal, but in any case its implementation would require an 'express' constitutional reform. PP has a blocking minority in the Parliament, so their votes are necessary in order to pass that kind of initiatives.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #738 on: February 16, 2016, 03:16:06 PM »

Couldn't they keep the provinces but stick a top-up list on the top?

IU proposed introducing leveling seats. Currently the Congress of Deputies has 350 seats, but the Constitution allows as much as 400. Hence the Lower House could have 350 fixed seats (elected provincially) and 50 additional adjustment seats (nationwide). PSOE agreed with the proposal, but in any case its implementation would require an 'express' constitutional reform. PP has a blocking minority in the Parliament, so their votes are necessary in order to pass that kind of initiatives.

Honestly, the two minor reforms I outlined above, combined with changing from Hont to Hare or some such would be enough to increase proportionality without needing to change the constitutional text, which is impossible in this legislature, unless we also change the Senate.
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Velasco
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« Reply #739 on: February 17, 2016, 09:55:12 PM »

Basque Country and Galicia will hold regional elections this year. According to a poll released on Feb 16 and conducted by Ikertalde and the Basque government (Cabinet of Sociological Surveying), the 75 seats of the Basque Parliament would be distributed as follows:

PNV 24, Podemos 18, EH Bildu 15, PSE-EE 9, PP 8, C's 1

Breakdown by province

Álaba-Araba: EAJ-PNV 22.1% (6), Podemos 21.3% (6), PP 17.3% (5), EH Bildu 17.1% (4), PSE-EE 11.8% (3), C's 5% (1)

Bizkaia (Biscay): EAJ-PNV 35.7% (10), Podemos 19.9% (6), EH Bildu 15.5% (4), PSE-EE 11.6% (3), PP 8.7% (2)

Gipuzkoa: PNV 28.2% ( 8 ), EH Bildu 25.9% (7), Podemos 21.1% (6), PSE-EE 12.8% (3), PP 5.3% (1)

Sample 2310. Fieldwork: Jan 25 to Feb 2.

https://www.euskadi.eus/contenidos/informe_estudio/o_16sv60prevision/es_def/adjuntos/16sv60_previsiones.pdf

http://www.electograph.com/2016/02/pais-vasco-febrero-2016-sondeo.html
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Velasco
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« Reply #740 on: February 17, 2016, 11:02:43 PM »
« Edited: February 18, 2016, 08:12:57 AM by Velasco »

As for the complex negotiations to form a government, PSOE and C's staged their good working relationship. Spokesmen Antonio Hernando (PSOE) and José Manuel Villegas (C's) talked of "significant breakthroughs". Both parties reached partial agreements on social policies, "democratic regeneration" and fight against corruption. However, they have some discrepancies on labour and fiscal policies. PSOE wants to repeal current labour laws, while C's only wants a partial reform. C's is firmly opposed to raise taxes, advocating for a reduction for the middle class.

Hernando was very optimistic and is convinced that C's will vote in favour of Sanchez's investiture once the agreement is reached. Villegas, on the other hand, told that reds and oranges found some common ground but the agreement must be global. Oranges stand firm on their will to abstain in the investiture, at best and in case of agreement.
 
PSOE and C's are seeking to put pressure on PP and Podemos.

As for the relationship between PSOE and Podemos, they are at odds. Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias are mutually suspicious.

According to Enric Juliana in La Vanguardia, Pedro Sánchez is trying to make a string with 143 pearls. He has already 90, but is 53 pearls short. The pearls Sánchez wants to add to the string belong to C's (40), PNV (6), Compromís (4), IU (2) and CC (1).

Also, Sánchez needs that Podemos (65) abstains in the second investiture vote. ERC (9) and CDC ( 8 ) threaten to vote against. Adding PP (123) and EH Bildu (2), black pearls would total 142.

That string is extremely fragile. According to Juliana, the support from C's and the other parties depends on a guarantee of victory that lies on the Podemos' abstention. In case the string breaks, Pedro Sánchez could reach the investiture session with only 90 pearls. In the worst scenario for Sánchez, 'baroness' Susana Díaz could wear her best necklace in Holy Week processions (very popular among Andalusians). So far, PSOE leader has surprised some people showing skills for survival. We will soon see how far he can go.    

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Velasco
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« Reply #741 on: February 19, 2016, 02:10:27 AM »

Popular Party offers two deputy PM posts to Socialists and Ciudadanos

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/18/inenglish/1455809606_024665.html

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Pointless gestures. Mariano Rajoy is just waiting Pedro Sánchez crashes. Yesterday in Brussels, Mr Rajoy told David Cameron and other EU leaders that Sánchez will fail in all likelihood and new elections will be called on June 26, that is apparently the date scheduled for the Brexit referendum.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #742 on: February 21, 2016, 06:23:17 AM »

Sigma Dos for El Mundo:


PP: 27.8% (-0.9), 119 seats (-4);
PSOE: 23.1% (+1.1), 93 seats (+3);
Podemos: 18.8% (-1.2), 60 seats (-9);
Ciudadanos: 15.3% (+1.4), 50 seats (+10);
IU: 4.0% (+0.3), 3 seats (+1)

Details: 1.000 interview. Margin of error: ±3.16%
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Velasco
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« Reply #743 on: February 25, 2016, 05:09:14 AM »

PSOE and Ciudadanos signed a deal yesterday, deemed as "historical" and "the beginning of a New Time (Segunda Transición)". PSOE made concessions on economy and labour laws. Territorial model and Catalonia were bypassed. As a result, oranges changed their minds and will support Pedro Sánchez's investiture. The only Canary Coalition MP joined the signatories and will vote "yes". The support of Basque nationalists is uncertain. So far, the PSOE candidate has 131 votes.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/24/inenglish/1456324792_423826.html

The Big Centre Daydream lasted only a few hours. PP spokepersons made clear previously their opposition to a PSOE-C's deal that makes Pedro Sánchez PM. Podemos rejected the agreement shortly after:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/24/inenglish/1456304567_413109.html?rel=mas

Later, IU MP Alberto Garzón and Compromís spokesman Joan Baldoví announced they withdraw from the quadripartite negotiations between leftist parties and PSOE. These negotiations could be eventually retaken after the first investiture session, given that Podemos spokepersons say the hand is still open. 
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Nanwe
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« Reply #744 on: February 25, 2016, 11:22:15 AM »

On economic issues, the agreement is fairly progressive, it includes improvements in temporary works, the development of proper state-sponsored work training and work-search systems, work benefits or a sort of minimum income for those without work income.

I haven't yet heard anyone from Podemos explain precisely why it's so incompatible with them except that they say it is. Not surprising though. To be frank, the more time passes, the more I have come to dislike the party.
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Velasco
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« Reply #745 on: February 26, 2016, 03:51:27 AM »
« Edited: February 26, 2016, 03:56:48 AM by Velasco »

I haven't yet heard anyone from Podemos explain precisely why it's so incompatible with them except that they say it is. Not surprising though. To be frank, the more time passes, the more I have come to dislike the party.

Podemos issued a press release explaining the reasons why they cannot join the agreement. According to El Mundo, they are:

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2016/02/24/56cdaa0646163f0a1b8b466e.html

1) Labour reforms approved by PP (2012) and PSOE (2010) are not repealed.

2) Both parties oppose a referendum in Catalonia.

3) The deal does not recognize the multinational character of the Spanish State

4) The deal does not include a "progressive taxation reform". Podemos wants to raise the maximum rate (income up to 300,000 Euros) from 45% to 55%.

5) The agreement does not repeal the reform of Article 135 of the Spanish Constitution agreed by PP and PSOE which prioritizes debt payment. Such reform was approved in the last period of Zapatero's administration, when former socialist PM was pressured to make a radical change in economic policies, implement cuts, etcetera. Sanchez promised to reverse the reform during the campaign. Also, the repeal of Art 135 is one of the Podemos' bait flags.

6) It doesn't ban "revolving doors", expression that means former senior Govt officials joining the boards of big 'strategic' enterprises (energy and others). That is another major issue for the aubergine party. The PSOE-C's deal expands incompatibility period to 5 years.

7) Podemos, PSOE and C's agree on the unsustainability of the pace of the deficit reduction demanded by Brussels. However, Podemos differs in the method to slow down such reduction to an affordable pace.

8 ) Podemos thinks there is little increase in public investment that purples deem necessary to improve economy and job creation.
 
9) Podemos demands lowering VAT for food and non-alcoholic beverages to a super reduced 4% rate, basic supplies (electricity, heating and gas) to 10%. As well, Podemos wants to increase VAT for luxury goods to 25%.

10)  Podemos wants the complete repeal of the citizen security law passed by PP and better known as 'gag law'. The PSOE-C's agreement only contemplates to repeal those matters appealed to the Constitutional Court.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #746 on: February 26, 2016, 06:54:36 AM »

Thaks for that, Velasco, some degree of viscerality is gone, although I still hear Garzón's 'it's regressive' comment in my head. But that's not Podemos' fault Tongue

. Although my main issue with those Podemos' objection and some points of PSOE-C's agreement is that they require a constitutional change, which is impossible to happen with the PP holding over 1/3 of Congress and the majority in the Senate. They are pipe dreams at least with Rajoy still leading the PP.

Anyhow,

The Huffington Post recently published a very interesting article about Podemos' difficult attitude to the deal:

Link (in Spanihs). Huffington Post Did my best at translating it.

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Nanwe
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« Reply #747 on: February 26, 2016, 06:56:09 AM »

And an interesting anaylitical article:

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Velasco
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« Reply #748 on: March 02, 2016, 05:18:11 AM »

Investiture debate: Pedro Sánchez calls for support to pull Spain out of current political impasse

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/01/inenglish/1456854478_073704.html

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Previously Podemos rejected an offer from PSOE:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/29/inenglish/1456762558_548387.html

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Right now investiture session continues with the replies from the rest of parties to yesterday's speech.

Live coverage (Spanish)

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/01/media/1456827577_344664.html
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CrabCake
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« Reply #749 on: March 02, 2016, 06:04:15 AM »

What are the odds of a new election?
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