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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 370763 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #700 on: January 25, 2016, 02:29:52 PM »

Hey, Portugal was a pleasant surprise. There is some hope (though I'll probably regret saying this).

Stranger things have certainly happened. Yet I look at certain elements in both Left parties and then I look at the general constitutional crisis that Spain will be embroiled in for years no matter what and then I worry...
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Zinneke
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« Reply #701 on: January 26, 2016, 10:32:34 AM »

Ada Colau has broken with Podemos' ranks after Iglesias upset her by copying up to the PSOE. I don't understand what her strategy was in the first place. PSOE was the only viable coalition partner on a national level, and they haven't even ended negotiations.

Brand Podemos is in the gutter in Catalunya according to El Pais (lol). I do wonder what the key difference between Podem, EUiA and the ERC is in the region. Different mafias I guess.
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Velasco
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« Reply #702 on: January 26, 2016, 11:25:49 AM »
« Edited: January 26, 2016, 11:43:57 AM by Velasco »

Ada Colau has broken with Podemos' ranks after Iglesias upset her by copying up to the PSOE.

What? Where did you read this?

To begin with, Ada Colau has never been a member of Podemos. She leads a local party, alliance or platform called Barcelona en Comú. In general elections, she was the virtual leader of an alliance called En Comú Podem (including Podemos, ICV, IU, BComú, social movements and independents). After the recent success of such alliance in Catalonia, her intent is to create a new political party that assembles the Left "overcoming coalitions and alphabet soups".

I don't understand what her strategy was in the first place. PSOE was the only viable coalition partner on a national level, and they haven't even ended negotiations.

PSOE and Podemos have not yet started to negotiate, unless you think that a couple of phone calls and some messages exchanged through What's Up constitute a negotiation.

Brand Podemos is in the gutter in Catalunya according to El Pais (lol).

The brand of Podemos in Catalonia will have to decide joining or not the new party or organisation that Colau wants to create. After the failure of Catalunya Sí que es Pot in regional elections (alliance in which the Mayoress of Barcelona did not take part), the Podemos leadership in Catalonia headed by Gemma Ubasart resigned. Hence, Colau's move catches Podemos in a moment of weakness. The same applies for the ecosocialist ICV (co-speakers Joan Herrera and Dolor Camats are about to be replaced) and the tiny EUiA (the IU brand in the region). The likely outcome is that all these parties will be absorbed into the new organisation led by Ada Colau. Some people in media see a resemblance with the formation of the old PSUC (Socialist Unified Party of Catalonia). In any case, the Colau's organisation will have total autonomy with regard to Podemos.  
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Velasco
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« Reply #703 on: January 26, 2016, 12:49:13 PM »
« Edited: January 26, 2016, 01:02:13 PM by Velasco »

Felipe González supports a PP-C's government with the acquiescence of PSOE (abstention in the investiture). Former PM thinks that calling elections again would not be a good thing, but in any case preferable to a leftist coalition with Podemos. González doubts about the sincerity of Pablo Iglesias' proposal for a "government of change". Furthermore, he considers the offer as a "strategy to gobble PSOE in the new elections". In his opinion, early elections would not help PSOE and the party "would suffer a lot" in a coalition with the purple party. It's against this backdrop that FG thinks the best option is the one he supports, providing that PP, PSOE and C's agree a timetable, as well a concrete and signed platform. The new government should have a short mandate.

Former PP, PSOE and UCD ministers signed a manifesto calling for a "government with broad support", formed by "two or more constitutionalist parties".

Add to this pressures from Brussels, economic and financial powers and media. Will Pedro Sánchez, in case he's sure about what he wants to do, resist to that?

EDIT: Apparently Pedro Sánchez is exploring the possibility of a PSOE minority government with the Podemos and C's support. I think that's condemned to fail, given that Podemos and C's are antithetic on economic and territorial policies. Anyway, nothing is impossible in this post-election carousel.
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Velasco
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« Reply #704 on: January 27, 2016, 01:22:53 PM »

PP corruption cases set to hinder negotiations with Ciudadanos:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/27/inenglish/1453884424_985650.html

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Podemos sent to the "nosebleed section" of the Congress

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/26/inenglish/1453821405_849690.html

Distribution of seats agreed by the Board of the Chamber (left) and Podemos' proposal (right)



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Nanwe
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« Reply #705 on: February 01, 2016, 02:07:28 PM »

Rita Barberá's inner circle is all eseentially under investigation. In fact, all 10 PP city councillors in Valencia are being investigated for various corruption-related charges.

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« Reply #706 on: February 01, 2016, 06:58:01 PM »

Has anybody used the classic "Oh, I'm really good at winning the lottery" line yet?

Also, lmao at that seating allocation. I'm guessing that was the suggestion that came after seating all the Podemos MP's in the corridor.
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Velasco
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« Reply #707 on: February 01, 2016, 08:13:24 PM »

 
Has anybody used the classic "Oh, I'm really good at winning the lottery" line yet?

Yes, a certain Carlos Fabra became renowned for that. Fabra was Presidente de la Diputación de Castellón (Chief of the provincial government of Castellón) and a leading figure of PP in the Valencia region.

Also, lmao at that seating allocation. I'm guessing that was the suggestion that came after seating all the Podemos MP's in the corridor.

Apparently the proposal came from PSOE. Someone must hate purple boys so much in the Socialist Party, formerly known as the 'Common House of the Left' Grin
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Nanwe
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« Reply #708 on: February 02, 2016, 01:18:03 PM »

The King has not offered Rajoy the possibility of forming a government. In the meantime, Rajoy will refuse to talk to PSOE unless PSOE agrees to support him first. Sánchez is now ready to try and go through the investiture session if the King asks him to and Rajoy continues to refuse.

Meanwhile, within the PP many people want a proper renovation, if not outright rebranding à la AP-PP, of the party in a post-Rajoy time. Ending the digital selection system of candidates might help. Also developing actual anti-corruption policies beyond saying that politicians should give example.

The King is to meet with Patxi López, the President of the Congress of Deputies at 19:30 (so in 14 minutes) to announce him the name of his candidate to the investiture. We shall see if this time the King does put forward someone's name. I suspect it'll be Sánchez though. It seems like things are getting easier for him, even though Podemos yesterday made a ridiculous proposal in which it already picked the ministers and the portfolios for PSOE ministers!
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Nanwe
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« Reply #709 on: February 02, 2016, 02:23:29 PM »

And indeed the King has tasked Sánchez with the role of formateur. Since there's no time limit in the law between the proposal and the first vote on the investiture, and this is decided by the President of the Congress (Patxi López, PSOE), Sánchez will have some advantage on his side.

In any case, López has already told the press that Sánchez has told him that he'll require 3-4 weeks to negotiate (they could have started in January!) an agreement. That would place the first investiture vote on February 25th or March 1st. And the second one within less than a week from them, iirc.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #710 on: February 02, 2016, 02:30:25 PM »

Albert Rivera (C's) besides other conditions, has said their support for a Government (beyond Transition 2.0, progressive welfare state, liberal economy) is dependent on a policy of further European integration or even the United States of Europe. Man, sometimes it's incredible how different political cultures are across Europe. In Spain, a politician speaks of USE and it's awesome and being  Eurosceptic is the political equivalent of being a Maoist.

I love Spain for these lil' quirks.
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aross
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« Reply #711 on: February 02, 2016, 02:49:32 PM »

Ending the digital selection system of candidates might help.
What's problematic about it? Seems like it would make it harder for corrupt cliques to stitch things up. (If I understand you correctly - you mean party members choosing candidates in an online vote, right?)
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Nanwe
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« Reply #712 on: February 02, 2016, 03:04:45 PM »

Ending the digital selection system of candidates might help.
What's problematic about it? Seems like it would make it harder for corrupt cliques to stitch things up. (If I understand you correctly - you mean party members choosing candidates in an online vote, right?)

No sorry, I was being cheeky. Digital in this sense means the old-fashioned meaning of digital, from Latin 'digitus', finger. Appointment through finger-pointing by your predecessor.
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aross
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« Reply #713 on: February 02, 2016, 03:14:45 PM »

Ending the digital selection system of candidates might help.
What's problematic about it? Seems like it would make it harder for corrupt cliques to stitch things up. (If I understand you correctly - you mean party members choosing candidates in an online vote, right?)

No sorry, I was being cheeky. Digital in this sense means the old-fashioned meaning of digital, from Latin 'digitus', finger. Appointment through finger-pointing by your predecessor.
Thanks, that makes sense! I have actually heard of the expression, it just didn't translate well.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #714 on: February 02, 2016, 09:03:24 PM »

This is starting to look a lot like Italy 2013...
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Velasco
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« Reply #715 on: February 03, 2016, 09:29:22 PM »
« Edited: February 04, 2016, 08:36:14 PM by Velasco »

Results of the 2015 General Election in the municipality of Madrid.  



Overall results:

PP                 35.72 %  (-15.79%)
PODEMOS     20.82 %     (new)
C's                17.42 %     (new)
PSOE            16.98 %    (-8.74%)
IU-UP              5.33 %   (-2.56%)
UPYD               1.27 %   (-8.49%)
VOX                 0.74%     (new)
PACMA             0.67%   (+0.32%)

Best and worst districts by party:

PP
Best: Salamanca (51.95%), Chamartín (51.63%), Chamberí (46.92%), Moncloa-Aravaca (45.31%)
Worst: Puente de Vallecas (20.75%), Villa de Vallecas (21.98%), Vicálvaro (24.10%), Villaverde (25.14%)

Podemos
Best: Centro (32.84%), Puente de Vallecas (32.35%), Villa de Vallecas (29.81%), Usera (26.27%)
Worst: Chamartín (11.12%), Salamanca (11.71%), Chamberí (14.75%), Moncloa-Aravaca (15.56%)

Ciudadanos
Best: Barajas (23.02%), Hortaleza (21.37%), Fuencarral-El Pardo (20.86%), Chamartín (20.59%)
Worst: Puente de Vallecas (11.07%), Usera (13.59%), Villaverde (13.86%), Centro (14.19%)

PSOE
Best: Puente de Vallecas (25.86%), Villaverde (25.63%), Usera (24.76%), Vicálvaro (21.49%)
Worst: Chamartín (9.53%), Salamanca (10.00%), Chamberí (10.94%), Retiro (11.95%)

IU-UP
Best: Centro (7.99%), Arganzuela (6.82%), Puente de Vallecas (6.71%), Vicálvaro (6.62%)
Worst: Salamanca (3.30%), Chamartín (3.44%), Fuencarral-El Pardo (4.32%), Chamberí (4.37%)
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Nanwe
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« Reply #716 on: February 04, 2016, 04:09:58 AM »

Interesting. You can clearly see the north-south divide in Europe's most unequal capital. Well, with the exception of Centro, which I support shows a much more gentrified, pijoprogre kind of left, as opposed to the working-class areas in the south.

I don't see a clear pattern for C's, they are stronger in the wealthier north (to be expected) but for instance their best result is in Barajas, which is not precisely Madrid's wealthiest district. Also, I wonder if the voters from Salamanca would ever stop voting PP, maybe if Rajoy is caught ritually sacrificing Aguirre to the Gods of electoral repetition?

The divide is crazy though, I was working out the results for the 2008 elections in my electoral model, and the Madrid Sur district (Arganzuela, Latina, Carabanchel, Usera, Puente-Vallecas, Moratalaz, Villaverde, Villa-Vallecas, San Blas and Barajas) was strongly left-wing (in one of them PCPE or POSI came third lol) whereas the PP has their best results in Madrid Norte. Even better than in Murcia.

By the way, Velasco, could I use the colour key? I wanted to use it for the maps, since it's quite nice.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #717 on: February 04, 2016, 06:57:27 AM »

January CIS poll and difference December 2015 election. Polling held between 6 and 11 of January.

PP: 28,8% (-0.1), Podemos: 21,9% (+1.4), PSOE: 20,5% (-1.5), C's: 13,3% (-0.4), IU: 3,7% (=)
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Velasco
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« Reply #718 on: February 04, 2016, 11:02:52 AM »
« Edited: February 04, 2016, 04:43:02 PM by Velasco »

Interesting. You can clearly see the north-south divide in Europe's most unequal capital. Well, with the exception of Centro, which I support shows a much more gentrified, pijoprogre kind of left, as opposed to the working-class areas in the south.

Well, the most populous neighbourhood in the the district of Centro is Lavapiés. That place is consistently left-wing. As well Podemos was officially launched there, at Teatro del Barrio. It's not exactly a wealthy neighbourhood, but it's somewhat gentrified.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavapi%C3%A9s

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I don't see a clear pattern for C's, they are stronger in the wealthier north (to be expected) but for instance their best result is in Barajas, which is not precisely Madrid's wealthiest district. Also, I wonder if the voters from Salamanca would ever stop voting PP, maybe if Rajoy is caught ritually sacrificing Aguirre to the Gods of electoral repetition?

As you say, C's is stronger in the north. UPyD used to perform strongly in Barajas, Hortaleza or Fuencarral-El Pardo (surprisingly in Vicálvaro, too). In wealthy conservative districts such as Chamartín, Salamanca, etcetera, it came in second place. The worst districts for C's are old working class neighbourhoods (Puente de Vallecas, Usera, Villaverde) and Centro. However, you can see that C's did better in the SE periphery (San Blas, Vicálvaro, Villa de Vallecas). Maybe the reason (I'm speculating) is that said districts have a lower average age. 'New' parties perform better among young voters.

For instance, Rivas-Vaciamadrid is located SE of Madrid, contiguous to the Vicálvaro district. It's the fastest-growing municipality in Spain and attracts young residents from the capital. There, Podemos came first but C's performed strongly too. Through the link you can see results by census section:

http://elecciones.rivasciudad.es/2015/generales/index.php

Related to this, Spain is losing population since 2012 due to the economic crisis. In metropolitan areas the trend is that population is diminishing in the core, but suburban municipalities are still growing (San Sebastián de los Reyes, Las Rozas, Pozuelo, Getafe or the aforementioned Rivas in the Madrid region). There is a map through the link:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/29/media/1454085215_892068.html

By the way, Velasco, could I use the colour key? I wanted to use it for the maps, since it's quite nice.

Of course. You can download Inkscape too: it's free Wink

 
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Nanwe
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« Reply #719 on: February 04, 2016, 11:37:15 AM »
« Edited: February 04, 2016, 11:42:12 AM by Nanwe »

Interesting. You can clearly see the north-south divide in Europe's most unequal capital. Well, with the exception of Centro, which I support shows a much more gentrified, pijoprogre kind of left, as opposed to the working-class areas in the south.

Well, the most populous neighbourhood in the the district of Centro is Lavapiés. That place is consistently left-wing. As well Podemos was officially launched there, at Teatro del Barrio. It's not exactly a wealthy neighbourhood, but it's somewhat gentrified.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavapi%C3%A9s

Oh, my bad. I honestly thought Centro would be more dimigraphically similar to Salamanca, but well I do know about Lavapies' reputation, just didn't figure out it's within Centro.

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Yeah, I remember, it's also a very left-wing municipality in any case. Although it would be interesting to look at how it voted in the late 1990s when the PP was more popular among the youth than the PSOE. I still wonder whether Vaciamadrid stands for Va hacia Madrid (go to Madrid) or Vacía Madrid (Madrid emptier)

EDIT:

In 1993, PSOE received 40.32% votes (and PP was third after IU!), in 1996, PSOE 36.45 (and PP 32.07) and even in 2000 PSOE still came ahead of the PP: 39.03 vs. 36.82.

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True, but the suburbanisation is a demographic trends since the 1990s, isn't it? Also, a word for non-Spaniards, suburbs in Spain are also flat-dominated, they are more "ciudades dormitorio" (sleeping-only cities?) than American-style (or even European style) detached house suburbs. For some reason, Spaniards love to live in flats.


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That I have, no worries. So do you have like a scale from 0 to 100? Because I've noticed in your maps on St. Brendan's Island blog that starting and finishing colouring varies.
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Velasco
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« Reply #720 on: February 04, 2016, 12:13:26 PM »

That I have, no worries. So do you have like a scale from 0 to 100? Because I've noticed in your maps on St. Brendan's Island blog that starting and finishing colouring varies.

Yes, it's something like that. I'll send you RGB codes via PM when I can.
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Velasco
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« Reply #721 on: February 04, 2016, 05:08:39 PM »


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True, but the suburbanisation is a demographic trends since the 1990s, isn't it? Also, a word for non-Spaniards, suburbs in Spain are also flat-dominated, they are more "ciudades dormitorio" (sleeping-only cities?) than American-style (or even European style) detached house suburbs. For some reason, Spaniards love to live in flats.

Yes, that trend started before. The article I linked before says that suburban municipalities are still growing. The translation for "ciudades dormitorio" is "dormitory towns" and yes, in many of those suburbs flats and apartments are the prevailing typology (especially in working class suburban municipalities like Getafe, Móstoles, Alcorcón and such). However, attached villas ("chalets adosados") have spread in many areas (see Rivas) and obviously in wealthier municipalities independent villas and mansions are more widespread. To take an example in Alcobendas municipality, there are big differences between La Moraleja (a luxury development where Cristiano Ronaldo lives) and the town centre. 
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Velasco
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« Reply #722 on: February 05, 2016, 10:38:06 PM »
« Edited: February 05, 2016, 11:07:31 PM by Velasco »

PSOE and Podemos don't love one another:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/05/inenglish/1454686165_156868.html

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PSOE and C's agreed to start negotiating a government program in a meeting between Pedro Sánchez and Albert Rivera on Thursday. C's leader persisted in his role of facilitator ("if the PP and PSOE do not drop this cold war, there will be no agreement”). Nobody in PSOE -including Susana Díaz and the 'barons'- wants to deal with PP, because that would be granting conservatives pardon in the midst of a new chapter of their never-ending corruption saga. On the other hand, it's becoming apparent that Sánchez has a better tune with Rivera. Also, the moderate profile of PSOE's negotiating team points to a deal with oranges. The problem is that numbers don't add up, unless PP or Podemos abstain in the investiture. Both parties made clear that they will vote against Sánchez in the eventuality of a PSOE-C's agreement.
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Velasco
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« Reply #723 on: February 05, 2016, 10:47:29 PM »
« Edited: February 05, 2016, 11:05:31 PM by Velasco »

General Election results in Barcelona municipality by district



Full results:

http://resultadosgenerales2015.interior.es/congreso/#/ES201512-CON-ES/ES/CA09/08/08019

Vote distribution by census section:

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/noticias/politica/resultados-elecciones-generales-2015-barcelona-calle-barrio-4774203

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Nanwe
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« Reply #724 on: February 06, 2016, 10:46:11 AM »

Iglesias is being ridiculous by insisting that Sanchez should only negotiate with him and Garzon. The numbers don't add up without Cs or the nationalists, and Cs seems a more likely candidate. It's obvious Iglesias is already ogling the new elections.

Btw, Valencia should be extremely interesting, Es El Moment obtained 45% votes iirc.
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