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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 370562 times)
Nanwe
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« Reply #650 on: January 09, 2016, 12:06:20 PM »

Mas is speaking live atm.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #651 on: January 09, 2016, 12:50:32 PM »



The agreement. Holy . Baixada de pantalons.
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aross
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« Reply #652 on: January 09, 2016, 01:36:04 PM »


The agreement. Holy . Baixada de pantalons.

An English summary would be greatly appreciated. (Though from what I can tell, the "2 defectors" part certainly seems to be in it - any reason for this?)
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Nanwe
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« Reply #653 on: January 09, 2016, 01:47:57 PM »
« Edited: January 09, 2016, 01:54:27 PM by Nanwe »

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Basically, the CUP agrees to support Puigdemont, to assume that all the problems of the last 3 months are their fault, for 2 of their MPs to join JxS and to purge their parliamentary group of anti-Mas deputies (so at least 4 or 5 out of 10) in exchange for Mas' resignation. Oh! And to never ever not support the current Government.

All meanwhile Mas might make a return after a few months, since he's going to focus on 'rebuilding' Convergencia.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #654 on: January 09, 2016, 02:01:00 PM »

Just a friendly reminder that this is the political class 50% of Catalonia want instead of the one in Madrid.

Also, doesn't the CUP have to pass this agreement through their party? I mean why even bother going to consult your party and blocking the whole process when you agree to do this deal that cripples your party? To get rid of one individual? Oh wait, let me guess, because they will be annihilated in any near future election anyway, so they might as well gamble on power and potential unilateral independence?

This is the glorious Catalan independence we've all been waiting for then.

How will the CUP rebels react?
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Nanwe
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« Reply #655 on: January 09, 2016, 02:04:02 PM »
« Edited: January 09, 2016, 02:08:58 PM by Nanwe »

Just a friendly reminder that this is the political class 50% of Catalonia want instead of the one in Madrid.

Also, doesn't the CUP have to pass this agreement through their party? I mean why even bother going to consult your party and blocking the whole process when you agree to do this deal that cripples your party? To get rid of one individual? Oh wait, let me guess, because they will be annihilated in any near future election anyway, so they might as well gamble on power and potential unilateral independence?

This is the glorious Catalan independence we've all been waiting for then.


How will the CUP rebels react?

Technically, 47% Tongue

But we don't know if they will react or not. But for a party where these decisions ought to be taken by an assembly, it all seems very un-assembly-like. I'm just utterly amazed about the agreement, it's the political version of, idk, ser puta y poner la cama?


In any case, what's glorious are the comments Mas made during the press conference such as "urnas no le dieron ha tenido que "corregirse" en negociación" (what the ballot box did not give has been corrected in the negotiation", or that the CUP "will be in the Parlament to do opposition because the Govern can not lose votes [in passing laws]"
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aross
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« Reply #656 on: January 09, 2016, 02:12:50 PM »
« Edited: January 09, 2016, 02:15:06 PM by aross »

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Basically, the CUP agrees to support Puigdemont, to assume that all the problems of the last 3 months are their fault, for 2 of their MPs to join JxS and to purge their parliamentary group of anti-Mas deputies (so at least 4 or 5 out of 10) in exchange for Mas' resignation. Oh! And to never ever not support the current Government.

All meanwhile Mas might make a return after a few months, since he's going to focus on 'rebuilding' Convergencia.

Thanks!
That's... mental, surely? Points 4 and 5 read like something from a Maoist self-criticism session.
Any indication as to whether the anti-Mas MPs are even willing to resign? Or do CUP use the tried and tested "undated letters of resignation" technique?

Oh yeah, and if the CUP are meant to become JxSí's satellite party anyway, why even bother with the two defectors?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #657 on: January 09, 2016, 02:14:12 PM »

But if what you said is true, and there is no incentive for the nationalist parties to go into new elections, then it makes more sense, particularly as the CUP are bordering on implosion.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #658 on: January 09, 2016, 02:18:03 PM »

But if what you said is true, and there is no incentive for the nationalist parties to go into new elections, then it makes more sense, particularly as the CUP are bordering on implosion.

Oh yes, there was absolutely no incentive. It does make sense, for JxS, for such a militantly anti-everything party as the CUP (they make Podemos look like a bunch of moderate centrists) that they have agreed to put electoral calculation over ideology (a first for them!) and to agree to become a satellite of the party of the Catalan bourgeoisie that CDC is, is inconceivable.
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Zanas
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« Reply #659 on: January 10, 2016, 04:10:59 PM »

Humans are very afraid of losing whatever small dosis of importance they gain.

This is like Syriza's level of betrayal.

I'm quickly becoming an anarchist again.
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aross
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« Reply #660 on: January 10, 2016, 04:13:22 PM »

So Puigdemont has been invested, with 8 yes votes and 2 abstentions from CUP, which seems low. Any news about the resistance to the deal from within CUP?

Oh, and apparently there has been some controversy about a speech Puigdemont gave in 2013 where he pledged to "expel the invaders from Catalonia, as they were in Belgium (? - I can only guess this is some kind of reference to Flanders)
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #661 on: January 10, 2016, 04:24:23 PM »

Oh, and apparently there has been some controversy about a speech Puigdemont gave in 2013 where he pledged to "expel the invaders from Catalonia, as they were in Belgium (? - I can only guess this is some kind of reference to Flanders)

I'm guessing he meant to refer to the Netherlands.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #662 on: January 12, 2016, 10:35:53 AM »

Oh, and apparently there has been some controversy about a speech Puigdemont gave in 2013 where he pledged to "expel the invaders from Catalonia, as they were in Belgium (? - I can only guess this is some kind of reference to Flanders)

I'm guessing he meant to refer to the Netherlands.

He could also be referring the expulsion of francophones from Leuven.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #663 on: January 12, 2016, 04:52:17 PM »

Oh, and apparently there has been some controversy about a speech Puigdemont gave in 2013 where he pledged to "expel the invaders from Catalonia, as they were in Belgium (? - I can only guess this is some kind of reference to Flanders)

I'm guessing he meant to refer to the Netherlands.

He could also be referring the expulsion of francophones from Leuven.

Unlikely, he quoted a poet who died in 1939, more likely he's referring to the Belgian revolution of 1830, imho.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #664 on: January 12, 2016, 04:57:35 PM »

Anyhow, I've been working on an electoral model for Spain, based on my own ideas (smaller/larger constituencies, no rural over-representation, compensatory seats on top, unblocked lists).




PP (centre-right): 120 (28.72)
PSOE (centre-left): 92 (22.01)
Podemos (left-wing): 87 (20.47)
Ciudadanos (centre): 58 (13.93)
Unidad Popular (far-left): 15 (3.67)
Democràcia i Llibertat (Catalan centre-right): 10 (2.25)
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (Catalan centre-left): 9 (2.39)
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea-Partido Nacionalista Vasco (Basque centre): 6 (1.20)
EH Bildu (Basque left-wing). 2 (0.87)
Coalición Canaria (Canary Islands regionalists): 1 (0.33)

Most likely result is PSOE+Podemos+IU coalition with external support in the investiture from the PNV (and perhaps CC), since they add up to 194 seats against (and let's say C's supports the PP in this scenario), the sum o PP and C's which is 178.
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Velasco
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« Reply #665 on: January 13, 2016, 04:58:09 AM »

The opening session of the new parliament is taking place this morning.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/13/inenglish/1452673886_901645.html

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Live coverage in Spanish

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/13/media/1452667694_891503.html?id_externo_rsoc=TW_CM
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Zanas
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« Reply #666 on: January 13, 2016, 10:44:49 AM »

Why are they not "allowed" to create several different groups for the several different initiatives they ran with, if they have the numbers ? Which authority is denying them this right ?
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Nanwe
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« Reply #667 on: January 13, 2016, 11:14:56 AM »

Why are they not "allowed" to create several different groups for the several different initiatives they ran with, if they have the numbers ? Which authority is denying them this right ?

Well it's not a right. And the rulebook of the Congress.

There's a considerable degree of unfairness about it, becaue by splitting up, Podemos would receive as much public money as the PP (which has double the amount of deputies) and of speaking times. Furthermore, there's no precedent for it, as the PSOE had a similar deal with the PSC in Catalonia and the PSC still sat in the PSOE group.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #668 on: January 15, 2016, 06:20:05 AM »

So Puigdemont just ruled out an UDI because the pro-independence forces only got 48% of the votes in September, yet the procés goes on. Apparently because Catalans ought to decide once the Parlament has drafted a constitution or something lol. I really don't get them.
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Zanas
Zanas46
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« Reply #669 on: January 15, 2016, 01:23:19 PM »

So Puigdemont just ruled out an UDI because the pro-independence forces only got 48% of the votes in September, yet the procés goes on. Apparently because Catalans ought to decide once the Parlament has drafted a constitution or something lol. I really don't get them.

I think the independence movement's momentum is ruined and it will only go downhill from now on for them.
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ag
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« Reply #670 on: January 15, 2016, 03:45:09 PM »

So Puigdemont just ruled out an UDI because the pro-independence forces only got 48% of the votes in September, yet the procés goes on. Apparently because Catalans ought to decide once the Parlament has drafted a constitution or something lol. I really don't get them.

I think the independence movement's momentum is ruined and it will only go downhill from now on for them.

I doubt. It is one of those things that has been around for a long while, and while it may go up and down, it will remain strong.
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Velasco
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« Reply #671 on: January 17, 2016, 04:48:57 AM »

New year's polls

Metroscopia / El País (Jan 17)
PP 29%, Podemos 22.5%, PSOE 21.1%, C's 16.6%, IU-UP 3.2%, Others 7.6%

Invymark / La Sexta (Jan 16)
PP 30.8%, Podemos 21.6%, PSOE 20.8%, C's 12.6%, IU-UP 3.5%, Others 10.7%

So Puigdemont just ruled out an UDI because the pro-independence forces only got 48% of the votes in September, yet the procés goes on. Apparently because Catalans ought to decide once the Parlament has drafted a constitution or something lol. I really don't get them.

It's not as difficult as it sounds. Puigdemont is aware that it's hard to get enough popular support for the UDI, but hopes that a majority passes a new constitution that would give them enough legitimacy to proclaim independence.   

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/15/inenglish/1452846497_004745.html

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Nanwe
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« Reply #672 on: January 18, 2016, 06:43:47 AM »

From Invymark:

Would you be in favour or against of permitting a referendum about Catalan independence?

In favour: 38.8%
Against: 57.6%
Doesn't know: 3.6%

Only Catalonia:

In favour: 68.2%
Against: 27.1%
Doesn't know: 4.7%

Party breakdown:

PP: 8.8% for, 90.6% against
PSOE: 34.1% for, 63.5% against
C's: 13.2% for, 83.7% against
Podemos: 78.5% for, 18% against

Would you be for or against a constitutional reform about changing the Spanish territorial model?

For: 58.4%
Against: 35.3%
Doesn't know: 6.3%

Polling in Galicia and Euskadi:

Galicia:

PPdG: 37% (32, -9)
En Marea: 25% (20, +11)
PSdG: 21% (17, -1)
C's: 9% (6, +6)

Euskadi:

EAJ-PNV: 30% (22-23, -4,5)
Podemos: 25% (21-22, +21,22)
EH Bildu: 19% (13-14, -7,8)
PSE-EE: 12.8% (10, -6)
PP: 8.3% (6, -4)
IU-LV: 3% (0-1, =, +1)
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Nanwe
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« Reply #673 on: January 19, 2016, 06:20:07 AM »
« Edited: January 19, 2016, 06:22:17 AM by Nanwe »

Celeste-Tel (Jan 19)

PP 30.2% (128-130), Podemos 22.1% (68-73), PSOE 21.9% (87-90), C's 12.6% (33-35), IU-UP 3.3% (2), Others 10% (24-26)

Methodology:

1100 phone interviews, during the first 10 days of 2016.
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #674 on: January 19, 2016, 12:19:27 PM »

So have the parties reached a deal about general government yet? I haven't been following lately
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