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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 370557 times)
Velasco
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« Reply #575 on: December 20, 2015, 06:11:42 PM »


They already fulfilled them, largely thanks to the ETA.

WTF Huh!!!

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Zinneke
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« Reply #576 on: December 20, 2015, 06:12:29 PM »
« Edited: December 20, 2015, 06:37:21 PM by JosepBroz »

With 99.43% counted:

PP+C's 163 seats (42.64%)         PSOE+Podemos 159 seats (42.67%)    


If these groupings are posted one more time I am going to break the keyboard...

Here are all the other possibilities that are actually more probable than these pre-set alliances you've taken from TVE...

  • We head for new elections
  • PP-PSOE
  • Podemos-Ciu-PSOE


Similar situation to Northern Ireland. You have terrorists on your doorstep that you do not want, just find a solution that involves devolution. The violence dies down, and the problem is half-solved.
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Velasco
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« Reply #577 on: December 20, 2015, 06:22:53 PM »
« Edited: December 20, 2015, 06:25:36 PM by Velasco »

Please don't try to build theories on subjects you ignore.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #578 on: December 20, 2015, 06:31:56 PM »
« Edited: December 20, 2015, 06:48:58 PM by JosepBroz »

Please don't try to build theories on subjects you ignore.


I'm simply isolating the variables. Both Catalonia and Basques had strong nationalist political presence in Spain after Franco's fall. Obviously their nationalisms are different, but we can agree that Basque autonomy is at least deeper than Catalunya's? Why do you think that is, given that voters have voted for similar nationalist parties in both communities since the fall of Franco? It wouldn't be because ETA were going around the place murdering people and the Spanish government knew they had to put an end to it eventually rather than fund organizations like the GAL. That's one of the few variables that differs from Catalunya's.

I am not condoning violent protest btw.

EDIT : Just let me clarify as I was on a mobile device : somebody asked why the Basques are staying quiet (they're not, since so many voted for Podemos, who clearly want constitutional reform) and what goals Basque nationalists have. I put forward the idea that Basques were actually happy with their level of autonomy at this moment, because their demands had been met. Their demands were met and accepted largely due to the violent nature of the regional problems surrounding the Basque country, created by the ETA's presence throughout the years, whereas Catalunya has had a more gradualist approach to identity-rebuilding, devolution of powers to the Catalan parliament and autonomy. There is nothing outrageous about this.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #579 on: December 20, 2015, 07:54:47 PM »

All in all, it's been a weird night. Turnout far lower than expected (73 vs. 77-80), "great" night for the PSOE and Podemos (even if bitter-sweet for both)l, C's really underperformed although they were also quite hurt by the electoral system and I suppose this last week when they lost a lot of momentum did not help and resulted in potential voters sating home (?). The party got 14%, which is far lower than expected by, anyone since, idk, March or so?

The creation of a government is going to be tough. Hopefully grand coalition that manages to implement constitutional, institutional and electoral reforms. Also, a consensus on education would be neat. That's my wish list Tongue

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Putting some things in perspective:

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Nanwe
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« Reply #580 on: December 20, 2015, 07:56:44 PM »

Please don't try to build theories on subjects you ignore.


I'm simply isolating the variables. Both Catalonia and Basques had strong nationalist political presence in Spain after Franco's fall. Obviously their nationalisms are different, but we can agree that Basque autonomy is at least deeper than Catalunya's? Why do you think that is, given that voters have voted for similar nationalist parties in both communities since the fall of Franco? It wouldn't be because ETA were going around the place murdering people and the Spanish government knew they had to put an end to it eventually rather than fund organizations like the GAL. That's one of the few variables that differs from Catalunya's.

I am not condoning violent protest btw.

EDIT : Just let me clarify as I was on a mobile device : somebody asked why the Basques are staying quiet (they're not, since so many voted for Podemos, who clearly want constitutional reform) and what goals Basque nationalists have. I put forward the idea that Basques were actually happy with their level of autonomy at this moment, because their demands had been met. Their demands were met and accepted largely due to the violent nature of the regional problems surrounding the Basque country, created by the ETA's presence throughout the years, whereas Catalunya has had a more gradualist approach to identity-rebuilding, devolution of powers to the Catalan parliament and autonomy. There is nothing outrageous about this.

Honestly, the Basques don't have their fiscal autonomy because of ETA, but rather because of the fact that their fiscal autonomy has been a consistent part of national legislation since the 19th century in its current form, and actually dates to the Middle Ages. It wasn't repealed under Franco and it was the bare minimum for an agreement with the PNV, so, as it happens ETA did not place the same pressuring role on Madrid as most ppl would assume. ETA was not treated as a political issue, but as a law and order one.
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Hash
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« Reply #581 on: December 20, 2015, 08:05:42 PM »

Jesus, the ignorance is strong in this thread.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #582 on: December 20, 2015, 08:29:57 PM »

A difficult result. C's seem to have underperformed, which makes things very complicated.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #583 on: December 20, 2015, 08:31:36 PM »

When was the last time a European election has a clear victory followed by a coalition that made sense?
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Simfan34
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« Reply #584 on: December 20, 2015, 09:03:35 PM »

The UK? Of course, there wasn't a coalition.
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jaichind
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« Reply #585 on: December 20, 2015, 11:05:12 PM »

This poll

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/678587014493663233

was almost spot on.
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Vosem
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« Reply #586 on: December 20, 2015, 11:45:04 PM »


De eso nada, amigo, es fruta.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #587 on: December 21, 2015, 05:55:39 AM »
« Edited: December 21, 2015, 06:10:09 AM by Nanwe »



Podemos* = Podemos, En Marea (Galicia), En Comú-Podem (Catalonia), Compromís-Podem-És el Moment (Valencia)
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Velasco
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« Reply #588 on: December 21, 2015, 07:44:08 AM »

All in all, it's been a weird night. Turnout far lower than expected (73 vs. 77-80), "great" night for the PSOE and Podemos (even if bitter-sweet for both)l, C's really underperformed although they were also quite hurt by the electoral system and I suppose this last week when they lost a lot of momentum did not help and resulted in potential voters sating home (?). The party got 14%, which is far lower than expected by, anyone since, idk, March or so?

The creation of a government is going to be tough. Hopefully grand coalition that manages to implement constitutional, institutional and electoral reforms. Also, a consensus on education would be neat. That's my wish list Tongue

Results are really hard to interpretate . My first impression is that we have a country that is divided in several fracture lines. To begin with, territorial breakdown is quite complex and fascinación (hhonestly, I didn't  expect the Podemos extraordinary performance in myCatalonia and the Basque Country ). Not to mention the generational gap  and many other factors that  I 'm  missing .

As for Ciudadanos, in my opinion they lost momentum because gradually they were perceived as an implicit ally for PP rather than an alternative , making their inconsistencies more evident . Their underperformance in Catalonia together with the ECP success is worthy of mention.

I think that a Grand Coalition should be dismissed .  PSOE can't support an administration headed by Rajoy , who is not a decent polítician according to Pedro Sánchez . There is a lot of media speculation right new, including the possibility of a government headed by Soraya backed by C's and with the abstention of PSOE  in the investiture . I can hardly see Rajoy quitting  just like that. I see the path to reforms blocked by the huge differences between the different forces and that PP majority in the Senate .
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CrabCake
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« Reply #589 on: December 21, 2015, 08:29:40 AM »

The pro-reform agenda should run on a common list in the senate, under the explicit pledge of abolishing the damn thing.
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Donnie
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« Reply #590 on: December 21, 2015, 08:52:44 AM »

All in all, it's been a weird night. Turnout far lower than expected (73 vs. 77-80), "great" night for the PSOE and Podemos (even if bitter-sweet for both)l, C's really underperformed although they were also quite hurt by the electoral system and I suppose this last week when they lost a lot of momentum did not help and resulted in potential voters sating home (?). The party got 14%, which is far lower than expected by, anyone since, idk, March or so?

The creation of a government is going to be tough. Hopefully grand coalition that manages to implement constitutional, institutional and electoral reforms. Also, a consensus on education would be neat. That's my wish list Tongue

Results are really hard to interpretate . My first impression is that we have a country that is divided in several fracture lines. To begin with, territorial breakdown is quite complex and fascinación (hhonestly, I didn't  expect the Podemos extraordinary performance in myCatalonia and the Basque Country ). Not to mention the generational gap  and many other factors that  I 'm  missing .

As for Ciudadanos, in my opinion they lost momentum because gradually they were perceived as an implicit ally for PP rather than an alternative , making their inconsistencies more evident . Their underperformance in Catalonia together with the ECP success is worthy of mention.

I think that a Grand Coalition should be dismissed .  PSOE can't support an administration headed by Rajoy , who is not a decent polítician according to Pedro Sánchez . There is a lot of media speculation right new, including the possibility of a government headed by Soraya backed by C's and with the abstention of PSOE  in the investiture . I can hardly see Rajoy quitting  just like that. I see the path to reforms blocked by the huge differences between the different forces and that PP majority in the Senate .

Parlamentary elections without a threshold (min. 5%) end like that...
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SPQR
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« Reply #591 on: December 21, 2015, 09:02:05 AM »

What's exactly the role of the Senate?
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Zanas
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« Reply #592 on: December 21, 2015, 09:04:35 AM »

All in all, it's been a weird night. Turnout far lower than expected (73 vs. 77-80), "great" night for the PSOE and Podemos (even if bitter-sweet for both)l, C's really underperformed although they were also quite hurt by the electoral system and I suppose this last week when they lost a lot of momentum did not help and resulted in potential voters sating home (?). The party got 14%, which is far lower than expected by, anyone since, idk, March or so?

The creation of a government is going to be tough. Hopefully grand coalition that manages to implement constitutional, institutional and electoral reforms. Also, a consensus on education would be neat. That's my wish list Tongue

Results are really hard to interpretate . My first impression is that we have a country that is divided in several fracture lines. To begin with, territorial breakdown is quite complex and fascinación (hhonestly, I didn't  expect the Podemos extraordinary performance in myCatalonia and the Basque Country ). Not to mention the generational gap  and many other factors that  I 'm  missing .

As for Ciudadanos, in my opinion they lost momentum because gradually they were perceived as an implicit ally for PP rather than an alternative , making their inconsistencies more evident . Their underperformance in Catalonia together with the ECP success is worthy of mention.

I think that a Grand Coalition should be dismissed .  PSOE can't support an administration headed by Rajoy , who is not a decent polítician according to Pedro Sánchez . There is a lot of media speculation right new, including the possibility of a government headed by Soraya backed by C's and with the abstention of PSOE  in the investiture . I can hardly see Rajoy quitting  just like that. I see the path to reforms blocked by the huge differences between the different forces and that PP majority in the Senate .

Parlamentary elections without a threshold (min. 5%) end like that...
There's a de jure 3% threshold in every province, and of course a de facto threshold of much more than that in seat-poor provinces. It's not a threshold issue here, it's not Israel. It's an issue of a dying system still hanging on to life support and new alternatives still struggling to gain credibility.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #593 on: December 21, 2015, 09:34:06 AM »

What are the main ideas irt electoral reform from C's, podemos etc?

The Senate is needed to amend the constitution, appoint certain officials, and has a lot of theoretical power over regional relations.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #594 on: December 21, 2015, 10:13:34 AM »

PSOE will vote against Rajoy in the first investiture vote.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #595 on: December 21, 2015, 10:48:08 AM »

All in all, it's been a weird night. Turnout far lower than expected (73 vs. 77-80), "great" night for the PSOE and Podemos (even if bitter-sweet for both)l, C's really underperformed although they were also quite hurt by the electoral system and I suppose this last week when they lost a lot of momentum did not help and resulted in potential voters sating home (?). The party got 14%, which is far lower than expected by, anyone since, idk, March or so?

The creation of a government is going to be tough. Hopefully grand coalition that manages to implement constitutional, institutional and electoral reforms. Also, a consensus on education would be neat. That's my wish list Tongue

Results are really hard to interpretate . My first impression is that we have a country that is divided in several fracture lines. To begin with, territorial breakdown is quite complex and fascinación (hhonestly, I didn't  expect the Podemos extraordinary performance in myCatalonia and the Basque Country ). Not to mention the generational gap  and many other factors that  I 'm  missing .

As for Ciudadanos, in my opinion they lost momentum because gradually they were perceived as an implicit ally for PP rather than an alternative , making their inconsistencies more evident . Their underperformance in Catalonia together with the ECP success is worthy of mention.

I think that a Grand Coalition should be dismissed .  PSOE can't support an administration headed by Rajoy , who is not a decent polítician according to Pedro Sánchez . There is a lot of media speculation right new, including the possibility of a government headed by Soraya backed by C's and with the abstention of PSOE  in the investiture . I can hardly see Rajoy quitting  just like that. I see the path to reforms blocked by the huge differences between the different forces and that PP majority in the Senate .

Parlamentary elections without a threshold (min. 5%) end like that...

Spain has a 3% threshold in theory, 10-15% in practice ¬¬
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #596 on: December 21, 2015, 12:11:21 PM »

https://team.cartodb.com/u/piensaenpixel/viz/2016460c-a7c5-11e5-90ff-0e98b61680bf/embed_map


Very nice map, very detailed.
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Velasco
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« Reply #597 on: December 21, 2015, 01:00:05 PM »


Good find, thank you

 .
The most extended opinion is that our Senate is a rather useless legislative body .Anyway, search for the "Spanish Senate " entry in the Wikipedia for further details on its role and organization.

I apologize  for the bad ortography in my previous post. I don't know how to change the configuration of the fycking device that I'm using.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #598 on: December 21, 2015, 01:09:54 PM »

Lewis found a good oddiry in Tarragona, a six seater.

Podemos 21, ERC 17, PSOE 16, DL 15, C's 14, PP 12.

And yes, that works out as all six getting one seat each. A very peculiar result.
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YL
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« Reply #599 on: December 22, 2015, 04:44:25 AM »

That exclave of Burgos province inside Alava seems to have liked Podemos a lot.

Result in Orexa, Gipuzkoa: EH Bildu 72 votes, PNV 1 vote, everyone else zero.
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