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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 370865 times)
Nanwe
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« Reply #425 on: December 16, 2015, 08:36:57 AM »

Today, El Periodic decided to report on the preferences (and prices) of Andorrans in the street markets of Andorra la Vella. About 700-750 people went to the market today.

The number of stands selling each product are in between brackets.

The prices are outrageous though.

Water 25.4€ (106-110)
Strawberries 20.6€ (81-85)
Aubergines 19.6€ (66-70)
Oranges 16.3€ (54-58)
Tomatoes 4.5€ (3-5)

Data provided by the Gestora Estatal de Suministros y Oferta de Productos (GESOP).

It remains hard to believe that the price of oranges can go down so quickly in two days or that the price of aubergines can skyrocket so quickly. We'll have to wait until the shops close for Sunday to know
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CrabCake
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« Reply #426 on: December 16, 2015, 08:51:35 AM »

Wow, the tomato salesmen are going to regret not bundling their wares with the aubergines. RIP TOMATOES

seriously though, did Riviera kill a puppy or something?
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Nanwe
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« Reply #427 on: December 16, 2015, 09:17:21 AM »
« Edited: December 16, 2015, 09:20:28 AM by Nanwe »

Wow, the tomato salesmen are going to regret not bundling their wares with the aubergines. RIP TOMATOES

seriously though, did Riviera kill a puppy or something?

Could be the polling, could be a bad polling day, could be some bias... It's hard to tell. Especially since many, many voters won't decide until last moment.

It's indeed unlikely that they are collapsing so fast... but they have made some stupid mistakes last week with the whole gender violence comments on the debate of 9 parties last week. My personal opinion is that C's, PSOE and Podemos will be neck on neck in between 22-18% of the votes, with the PSOE most likely to remain (narrowly in terms of votes, not so on seats) the second one.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #428 on: December 16, 2015, 09:27:43 AM »

The fact that the anti-PP vote is so divided pretty much assures the PP control of the Senate, right?
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Nanwe
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« Reply #429 on: December 16, 2015, 09:40:57 AM »

The fact that the anti-PP vote is so divided pretty much assures the PP control of the Senate, right?

According to this article, it is rather likely. Although the Senate uses SNTV, not FPTP. That the Senate would be controlled by the PP is not a problem for ordinary laws, it is however a major problem for constitutional reform or the application of Article 155.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #430 on: December 16, 2015, 02:12:51 PM »
« Edited: December 16, 2015, 02:17:36 PM by JosepBroz »

El Pais were leading today with a story on Rajoy backing a PP-C's coalition, which I think is what put people off oranges. Why would you buy oranges only to realise they are filled with bland, tastless water?  

I'm going to go ahead and predict a PP minority government.


Thanks, I think I'll write a paper on the rise of post-nationalist parties, using FDF, Ciudadanos, D66. Any others like Ciudadanos in Europe?
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #431 on: December 16, 2015, 02:26:15 PM »
« Edited: December 16, 2015, 02:28:27 PM by kataak »

El Pais were leading today with a story on Rajoy backing a PP-C's coalition, which I think is what put people off oranges. Why would you buy oranges only to realise they are filled with bland, tastless water?  

I'm going to go ahead and predict a PP minority government.


Thanks, I think I'll write a paper on the rise of post-nationalist parties, using FDF, Ciudadanos, D66. Any others like Ciudadanos in Europe?


I guess any liberal (both socially and economically) party in Europe. Like .nowoczesna in Poland. In published today poll by IBRIS they got... 30%. They increased their support by 20% during one month so I guess it is a rise. But this is special case, probably not connected with any global process.
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FredLindq
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« Reply #432 on: December 16, 2015, 02:48:45 PM »

El Pais were leading today with a story on Rajoy backing a PP-C's coalition, which I think is what put people off oranges. Why would you buy oranges only to realise they are filled with bland, tastless water?  

I'm going to go ahead and predict a PP minority government.


Thanks, I think I'll write a paper on the rise of post-nationalist parties, using FDF, Ciudadanos, D66. Any others like Ciudadanos in Europe?


FDF?! You mean FDP in Germany?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #433 on: December 16, 2015, 03:17:50 PM »

No, I mean the Belgian party. They are now called Défi and are mainly Brussels-based. Used to be part of our mainstream centre-right.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #434 on: December 16, 2015, 03:29:42 PM »

Could the Alliance Party of NI count?
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Beezer
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« Reply #435 on: December 16, 2015, 04:21:27 PM »

Rajoy punched by random guy on the street. Spanish Secret Service apparently asleep at the wheel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=3VwLjHG2LM8
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Nanwe
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« Reply #436 on: December 17, 2015, 06:52:27 AM »

Today's Andorran fruit prices.

Water 26.2€ (108-112)
Strawberries 21€ (83-87)
Aubergines 20.4€ (71-75)
Oranges 15.9€ (50-54)
Tomatoes 3.7€ (2-4)
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Velasco
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« Reply #437 on: December 17, 2015, 01:40:16 PM »

Wow, the tomato salesmen are going to regret not bundling their wares with the aubergines. RIP TOMATOES

seriously though, did Riviera kill a puppy or something?

Interestingly, Tomato leader Alberto Garzón has a good approval rate and his rallies are crowded. However, his popularity does not guarantee a good price for the product in the market.

The difference between failure and success is number 5 (seats required to form a parliamentary group).

Maybe Aubergines didn't want to bundle heir wares with Tomatoes, because of electoral marketing strategy. According to that, they wanted to pick in the Strawberry grounds and Tomatoes didn't a lot to help.
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jaichind
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« Reply #438 on: December 17, 2015, 01:44:56 PM »

Today's Andorran fruit prices.

Water 26.2€ (108-112)
Strawberries 21€ (83-87)
Aubergines 20.4€ (71-75)
Oranges 15.9€ (50-54)
Tomatoes 3.7€ (2-4)

Hmm.. I guess the "Orange" surge from a couple of weeks ago is subsiding.  I thought a logical outcome of what fruits would be bought would be a "Water"+"Orange" combination.  But perhaps that is in doubt now.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #439 on: December 17, 2015, 03:40:06 PM »

Today's Andorran fruit prices.

Water 26.2€ (108-112)
Strawberries 21€ (83-87)
Aubergines 20.4€ (71-75)
Oranges 15.9€ (50-54)
Tomatoes 3.7€ (2-4)

Hmm.. I guess the "Orange" surge from a couple of weeks ago is subsiding.  I thought a logical outcome of what fruits would be bought would be a "Water"+"Orange" combination.  But perhaps that is in doubt now.

It is. However let's be wary of just one poll. Because this is just one, with a small number of people asked (I think for this one about 600) and without time to do much (after all they are being published daily), so I think that while C's might be going down since last week, it's hard to believe it's going down at 0.4 pp. a day. It's more likely that it wont end at 19-20% as expected last week, but rather at 17-18, or at worst 16-17. Mind you, this makes the situation highly volatile, because 15% is the de facto threshold for the medium-sized constituencies and the current scenario neither PP+C's, PSOE+C's or PSOE+Podemos(+IU) would have a majority. It'd be ideal for constitutional reform, or for a brief legislature... Or for some kind of new party system coalition with the nationalists (can you imagine some weird PP+C's+PNV or PP+C's+DiL, or PSOE+Podemos+DiL??)
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jaichind
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« Reply #440 on: December 17, 2015, 04:51:37 PM »

Rajoy punched by random guy on the street. Spanish Secret Service apparently asleep at the wheel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=3VwLjHG2LM8

I wonder how much this helps PP?
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DL
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« Reply #441 on: December 17, 2015, 05:13:14 PM »

What is the difference in political philosophy between Podemos and IU?? Wouldnt it have made sense for IU to simply fold or merge with Podemos?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #442 on: December 17, 2015, 06:32:30 PM »
« Edited: December 17, 2015, 06:36:27 PM by JosepBroz »

What is the difference in political philosophy between Podemos and IU?? Wouldnt it have made sense for IU to simply fold or merge with Podemos?

Podemos refuses to acknowledge their political philosophy. It remains part of a populist current that has no political philosophy, and hence this gives it a certain degree of freedom to react on all issues, compared to the rigid Izquierda.

You see a similar phenomenon with the far right, whose political philosophy died or lost credibility with WW2. This initially accounted for their dismal scores but now that electoral realignment is a thing, it allows them to pick certain sections of the electorate through discourse either taken from other political factions or adapted to modern issues such as globalisation.

Like Nanwe puts it, it has to do with marketing.

But as far as I know Podemos and Izquierda Unida really don't get in each other's way as much as, say, Syriza and the KKE.

If you want core ideological differences, Podemos have a right-wing in the party dedicated more to democratisation and local decision making and social movements, while the left-wing backs this on Gramscist, Eurocommunist "reclaim the working class" grounds. Izquierda are sort of decaying Trotskyists. I haven't read much about them but they rely on their industrial working class base alone and seem proud of that.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #443 on: December 17, 2015, 07:19:47 PM »

What is the difference in political philosophy between Podemos and IU?? Wouldnt it have made sense for IU to simply fold or merge with Podemos?

Podemos refuses to acknowledge their political philosophy. It remains part of a populist current that has no political philosophy, and hence this gives it a certain degree of freedom to react on all issues, compared to the rigid Izquierda.

You see a similar phenomenon with the far right, whose political philosophy died or lost credibility with WW2. This initially accounted for their dismal scores but now that electoral realignment is a thing, it allows them to pick certain sections of the electorate through discourse either taken from other political factions or adapted to modern issues such as globalisation.

Like Nanwe puts it, it has to do with marketing.

But as far as I know Podemos and Izquierda Unida really don't get in each other's way as much as, say, Syriza and the KKE.

If you want core ideological differences, Podemos have a right-wing in the party dedicated more to democratisation and local decision making and social movements, while the left-wing backs this on Gramscist, Eurocommunist "reclaim the working class" grounds. Izquierda are sort of decaying Trotskyists. I haven't read much about them but they rely on their industrial working class base alone and seem proud of that.

Yes, honestly, IU for as much as they want to pretend they are like in times of Anguita and whatnot, stil suffer the scars of their brief flirting with social democracy under Llamazares, and they seem pretty content with their irrelevant but right position in the incoming elections. Also, IU is not so much a party as a coalition of loads of parties, which makes internal decision-making rather byzantine, which is why open systems within IU for choosing all the deputies, like Podemos sort of does (and I say sort of, because Iglesias likes to put his cool people here and there, bypassing the assemblies) , because that would break the internal equilibrium between the various parties and groups that form IU. Garzón is a really good candidate and IU is all over the place in Twitter but they are simply seen as old. Indeed, Garzón fits better in Podemos (if further left than Iglesias, I'd say) than in the old IU... But then again IU is an old party and Garzón has done a great job at saving the party from the depths of oblivion it seemed to have reached with Cayo Lara's incompetent leadership.

But then again, IU always has this working-class (probably retired by now) people who have always voted IU (or ICV) and will do until they die inherited from when it was just the PCE. So that will always guarantee them some support, but as Velasco says, they must reach 5 seats, if they fall below that and enter the Mixed Group, they'll be politically irrelevant in Parliament, and that could mean their doom.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #444 on: December 17, 2015, 07:27:31 PM »

I feel kinda sad that "pop" Podemos has such big support and old-school communists now have only 4% in polls. Eh, postpolitics :I
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CrabCake
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« Reply #445 on: December 18, 2015, 12:13:14 AM »
« Edited: December 18, 2015, 12:16:24 AM by CrabCake the Liberal Magician »

Though, it does seem to be up to the regional groups to make coalitions or not. The Catalan and Gallican branches of IU have joined the Podemos front groups.

MEANWHILE  Rajoy's attacker seems to be a relative of his wife. Some kind of domestic squabble?
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CrabCake
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« Reply #446 on: December 18, 2015, 12:18:58 AM »
« Edited: December 18, 2015, 12:30:03 AM by CrabCake the Liberal Magician »

lol what is this:

Quote
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I love Spain, I really do; but it really has a weird attitude sometimes.
Meanwhile:

C's candidate in Cantabria proclaims that "abortion is a form of violence". Ok then.

Rajoy's marvelous response when asked about corruption allegations :  "What does that have to do with the economy?" Indeed.

My MP apparently made a deep observation about Spanish politics to a journalist: "When Nick Clegg saw the documents, he told me Cameron […] would only have lasted 'a few hours' after the publication of something that big", he writes: "But in Spain, British or North American democratic habits are conspicuously absent".

PP targets .... hipsters? https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=W_VQbsuRXl4

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Donnie
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« Reply #447 on: December 18, 2015, 06:56:11 AM »

How possible is orangewater as national drink after the election?
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Velasco
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« Reply #448 on: December 18, 2015, 09:00:08 AM »

MEANWHILE  Rajoy's attacker seems to be a relative of his wife. Some kind of domestic squabble?

I don't  think so. That distant relative of Rajoy' s wife is just a brainless teenager. Sadly, the incident  helps PP. On the other hand , the conservative party is making a good campaign that has achieved a little miracle humanizing  Rajoy.

lol what is this:

Quote
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I love Spain, I really do; but it really has a weird attitude sometimes.
Meanwhile:

C's candidate in Cantabria proclaims that "abortion is a form of violence". Ok then.

Rajoy's marvelous response when asked about corruption allegations :  "What does that have to do with the economy?" Indeed.

My MP apparently made a deep observation about Spanish politics to a journalist: "When Nick Clegg saw the documents, he told me Cameron […] would only have lasted 'a few hours' after the publication of something that big", he writes: "But in Spain, British or North American democratic habits are conspicuously absent".

PP targets .... hipsters? https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=W_VQbsuRXl4



That article is really weird, but  I don't judge  the attitude of Americans according to what  Rush  Limbaugh  says .

The statements of that C's candidate and some stances on gender violence suggest that maybe oranges don't fit  exactly in the 'social liberal' label .

Rajoy's response speaks for itself and reflects a mentality. Shame.

Funnily enough the bearded guy in the video is not really a hipster but  a PP  councilor  devotee of the Virgin  of El  Rocío  and bullfighting aficionado.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #449 on: December 18, 2015, 09:22:53 AM »

Could an Orange is the New Blue coalition push out Rajoy in favour of a more palatable PM? (Santamaria?)
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