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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 370711 times)
Velasco
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« Reply #400 on: December 01, 2015, 02:41:57 PM »

I'm not paying attention to political developments, but there was a three-cornered debate between Mariano Rajoy's main challengers. There was an empty stand for the incumbent PM, who refused to attend.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/12/01/inenglish/1448958135_116203.html

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Deputy PM Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría will attend a similar debate in Antena 3 TV, while Mr. Rajoy will face the official leader of the opposition (Pedro Sánchez) alone in another upcoming TV debate.

According to internet users following the debate, Pablo Iglesias was the winner. You know that internet polls are internet polls. I didn't follow that, so I can't give an opinion.

Average polling at Electograph (as of Nov 30):

PP 27.6%, PSOE 21.5%, C's 19.8%, Podemos* 14.9%, IU** (UP) 4.2%

* Including regional coalitions in Catalonia, Valencia and Galicia

** IU is disguised as Unidad Popular ("Popular Unity") in coalition with minor parties.

General Election poll for Catalonia (GESOP / El Periódico de Catalunya on Nov 28)

En Comú Podem (ECP= Podemos + ICV + EUiA + Barcelona en Comú) 19.4% (9-10 seats)

C's 18.4% (8-10 seats)

ERC 18.1% (9-11 seats)

PSC-PSOE 17.4% (8-9 seats)

Democràcia i Llibertat ("Democracy and Freedom"= CDC and minor parties) 14.1% (7-8 seats)

PP 8.8% (3-4 seats)

Others 3.8%
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rob in cal
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« Reply #401 on: December 02, 2015, 12:22:54 PM »

    Assuming the election results turn out roughly something like the way the  polls are showing, I wonder how the electoral system will translate those votes into seats. Outside of Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia districts, there are so many 5 to 10 seat districts, that I wonder if the proportional aspect will be severely weakened or not.
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FredLindq
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« Reply #402 on: December 02, 2015, 01:40:26 PM »

Will UDC die if it not enters the cortes?!
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Velasco
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« Reply #403 on: December 02, 2015, 04:19:50 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2015, 04:22:24 PM by Velasco »

Assuming the election results turn out roughly something like the way the  polls are showing, I wonder how the electoral system will translate those votes into seats. Outside of Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia districts, there are so many 5 to 10 seat districts, that I wonder if the proportional aspect will be severely weakened or not.

The electoral system penalizes third national parties in small districts. However, this effect might be damped in case the four main parties surpass 15% of the vote nationwide.

Last GESOP poll for all Spain (I already posted the estimation for Catalonia) shows the following percentages and projection of seats (which is a very approximate estimate; it's impossible to translate accurately vote percentages into seats):

PP 23.9% PSOE 21.4%, C's 21%, Podemos 16%, IU 4.9%, ERC 2.7%, DL (CDC) 2%, Others 8.1%

PP 98-102 seats, PSOE 82-86, C´s 76-80, Podemos 52-56, ERC 9-11, DL 7-8, IU 4-6, Others 11-15

Note that ERC and DL (CDC) are regional parties that only run in the four Catalan provinces, whereas IU runs nationwide and its vote is scattered in a greater number of districts.

The last GAD3 poll has the following figures:

PP 28.3%, PSOE 23.1%, C's 17.4%, Podemos 14.9%, IU 4%, ERC 2.5%, DL (CDC) 2.5%, EAJ-PNV 1.4%. EHBildu 1.3%

Seats: PP 125, PSOE 91, C's 59, Podemos 41, ERC 9, DL 9, EAJ-PNV 5, EHBildu 5, IU 3...

I would insist on the usual inaccuracy of seat projections; they only give an approximation.

Will UDC die if it not enters the cortes?!

At the very least UDC would be virtually dead, regardless if the party still exists.

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Velasco
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« Reply #404 on: December 03, 2015, 07:40:12 AM »

CIS November survey

PP 28.6% (120-128 seats)

PSOE 20.8% (77-89 seats)

C's 19% (63-66 seats)

Podemos + allies 15.7% (45-49 seats)

Podemos 9.1% (23-25), ECP 3.2% (10-11), Compromís-Podem 2.1% (7), En Marea 1.3% (5-6)

IU (Unidad Popular) 3.6% (3-4 seats)

Regional parties:

CDC (Democràcia i Llibertat) 2.2% (9 seats)

ERC 1.9% (7 seats)

EHBildu 1.2% (6-7 seats)

EAJ-PNV 1.1% (5 seats)

CC 0.3% (1 seat)

http://ep00.epimg.net/descargables/2015/12/03/21679134b4464ad41e54d8042deb43a8.pdf

Regional alliances:

PP is allied with UPN in Navarre, PAR in Aragon and FAC in Asturias

PSOE is allied with NC in the Canary Islands

Podemos runs in coalition outfits in the following regions: Catalonia (ECP), Valencia (with Compromís) and Galicia (En Marea)

IU is allied with CHA in Aragon. In Catalonia is part of the ECP (with Podemos, ICV and BComú), while in Galicia (if I'm not wrong) IU is part of En Marea.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #405 on: December 03, 2015, 05:43:04 PM »

So I tried to map, by the CIS' own poll, a map of Spain. I also used the figures from europaspress and Kiko LLaneras' own figures to try and determine the most voted party to shade the provinces. I decided to always use the likelier number of seats whenever the CIS showed two possibilities (so 2 if it said 2-3 and 3 if it predicted 3-2, obviously this is more than open to change). Since about 40% of people who said they are going to vote haven't yet made up their minds, all these projections can not simply be very accurate.

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Velasco
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« Reply #406 on: December 04, 2015, 05:43:08 AM »

Nice work, very interesting.

Since about 40% of people who said they are going to vote haven't yet made up their minds, all these projections can not simply be very accurate.

Indeed. It's interesting the data on the undecided voters and group ages. There is a clear generation gap (and between the town and the country). The difference with regard to other polls is that the CIS sample is massive (more than 17,000 nationwode), so on paper the projection is more adjusted. Still, some provincial results seem a bit strange to me.

The raw polling data in the CIS survey is the following:

PP 16.2%, PSOE 14.9%, Podemos + alliances 11.8%, C's 11.6%, IU (UP) 2.6%, ERC 1.7%, CDC (DL) 1.2%, EHBildu 0.7%, PNV 0.7%.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #407 on: December 04, 2015, 07:48:38 AM »

It's a pity that the CIS did not publish the predicted percentages per province, only the seats...

Also, although the predict that IU will win a seat in Asturias, is Llamazares still running there? If not, maybe the seat could be potentially lost by IU. And already, according to the prediction, they are going to lose their own grupo, so that'd be even worse...
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Velasco
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« Reply #408 on: December 04, 2015, 09:36:14 AM »

Also, although the predict that IU will win a seat in Asturias, is Llamazares still running there? If not, maybe the seat could be potentially lost by IU. And already, according to the prediction, they are going to lose their own grupo, so that'd be even worse...

The IU candidate in Asturias is a certain Manuel González Orviz. Probably the seat is going to be hard to retain, I'd say IU has marginal chances there. Bearing in mind that Podemos got 19% in the regional election and IU 11.9% with Llamazares as candidate, I think it's more likely a second seat for Podemos in that province. Maybe the CIS is correct with the other parties (PP+FAC 3 seats, PSOE 2 and C's 1).

As for Podemos, I think they're going to perform a bit worse in Catalonia and the Basque Country than the CIS predicts. Anyway there's an extreme volatility in Catalonia.

Also, I find surprising the projection in Andalusian provinces. The CIS estimates 3 seats for Ciudadanos in Seville and Malaga and 2 in Cadiz, while Podemos gets only 1 seat in each. I can't believe that C's gets 14 seats in the region and Podemos only 5.

I wonder if the estimated result for the oranges in Madrid is not a bit exaggerated, although at this point I find plausible that C's comes second (and PSOE fourth!). In certain Castilian provinces it might happen that C's surpasses PSOE as second party and gets the last seat... But the difference could be a handful of votes, so these seats are not secure.
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SPQR
italian-boy
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« Reply #409 on: December 05, 2015, 07:14:10 AM »

If Democràcia i Llibertat has such a poor showing in Catalunya,will it kill all possibilities of CUP voting for him as president?
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Nanwe
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« Reply #410 on: December 05, 2015, 01:35:36 PM »

Also, although the predict that IU will win a seat in Asturias, is Llamazares still running there? If not, maybe the seat could be potentially lost by IU. And already, according to the prediction, they are going to lose their own grupo, so that'd be even worse...

The IU candidate in Asturias is a certain Manuel González Orviz. Probably the seat is going to be hard to retain, I'd say IU has marginal chances there. Bearing in mind that Podemos got 19% in the regional election and IU 11.9% with Llamazares as candidate, I think it's more likely a second seat for Podemos in that province. Maybe the CIS is correct with the other parties (PP+FAC 3 seats, PSOE 2 and C's 1).

As for Podemos, I think they're going to perform a bit worse in Catalonia and the Basque Country than the CIS predicts. Anyway there's an extreme volatility in Catalonia.

Also, I find surprising the projection in Andalusian provinces. The CIS estimates 3 seats for Ciudadanos in Seville and Malaga and 2 in Cadiz, while Podemos gets only 1 seat in each. I can't believe that C's gets 14 seats in the region and Podemos only 5.

I wonder if the estimated result for the oranges in Madrid is not a bit exaggerated, although at this point I find plausible that C's comes second (and PSOE fourth!). In certain Castilian provinces it might happen that C's surpasses PSOE as second party and gets the last seat... But the difference could be a handful of votes, so these seats are not secure.

It is surprising, but perhaps it's that C's is surfing the anti-establishment wave at the right time, whereas Podemos did it too early? In any case, indeed, a handful of votes is going to determine whether the emergent parties manage to obtain or not seats in the medium sized constituencies. A bad result and they can be screwed royally, whereas if they manage they can obtain spectacular results, the 20D is going to be an amazing night.

Catalonia is impossible to predict. In Tarragona six parties win one seat each. That's just crazy. I think the PP thinks that the danger of C's in the rural medium is very, very real, which is why they have put forward so many proposals that are only attractive to the rural voter.

If Democràcia i Llibertat has such a poor showing in Catalunya,will it kill all possibilities of CUP voting for him as president?

So far, and until the 27th of December, when the CUP's National Assembly meets, they won't support Mas. In any case, they probably won't support him and already JxS is tearing itself apart and the CDC leaders (Homs, Mas Colell) are backpedaling faster than Indurain ever did... So most likely option? Elections again in Catalonia in early 2016.
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italian-boy
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« Reply #411 on: December 11, 2015, 06:07:37 AM »

At last,according to CIS,voters are identifying Ciudadanos as a center-right party.
On a range from 0 (hard left) to 10 (hard right),it has passed in the last year from 5,17 to 6,37.
PSOE is around 4,PP around 8(!!).

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/12/10/actualidad/1449775061_273418.html
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #412 on: December 11, 2015, 09:10:42 AM »

Spain is strange country.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #413 on: December 11, 2015, 04:13:59 PM »


How so?
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Beezer
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« Reply #414 on: December 12, 2015, 05:10:45 AM »

Scholarly text on Ciudadanos, in case anyone's interested: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13608746.2015.1119646
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #415 on: December 13, 2015, 01:18:41 PM »


For me Ciudadanos are rather centre-left not centre right. But that is the matter of different perspective probably.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #416 on: December 13, 2015, 03:07:44 PM »

Mostly they're just populist garbage. But when the other parties on offer are borderline criminal conspiracies or actual cults (sometimes both!) I guess the appeal is no great mystery.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #417 on: December 13, 2015, 04:51:33 PM »


For me Ciudadanos are rather centre-left not centre right. But that is the matter of different perspective probably.

Well, not everyone is on the far-right like you.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #418 on: December 14, 2015, 05:09:41 AM »

Depiction of this legislature:

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Ex-Assemblyman Steelers
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« Reply #419 on: December 14, 2015, 08:48:02 PM »


For me Ciudadanos are rather centre-left not centre right. But that is the matter of different perspective probably.

Well, not everyone is on the far-right like you.

touche!
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Nanwe
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« Reply #420 on: December 15, 2015, 06:51:20 AM »

Andorra's El Periòdic d'Andorra is polling these days and until Sunday the changing preferences in music tastes in Spain, since publishing polls is not allowed this week.

La PPuerta de Alcalá 25,4% (104-108 encuestados)
Una Rosa es Una Rosa 20,9% (81-85 encuestados)
Ghostbusters – The Purples 19% (63-67 encuestados)
Ciudadanos de un lugar llamado Mundo 17,2% (57-61 encuestados)
La Unión – Vuelve el Amor 4,8% (3-5 encuestados)
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CrabCake
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« Reply #421 on: December 15, 2015, 07:03:13 AM »

lmao, that's amazing
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Beezer
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« Reply #422 on: December 15, 2015, 07:38:06 AM »

Any reason for the recent Podemos spike?
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SPQR
italian-boy
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« Reply #423 on: December 15, 2015, 08:10:26 AM »

Happens all the time in Italy,with horseraces instead of music tastes.

Anyway,I read that Sanchez went all-in in yesterday's debate...
"Spain needs a decent PM,and you (Rajoy) are not a decent person".
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Velasco
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« Reply #424 on: December 15, 2015, 01:27:27 PM »

Any reason for the recent Podemos spike?

Emotional  appeal , effective campaign, good performance in debates, the  effect oficial regional alliances , mistakes made  by rivals... we  have a volatile scenario and  many undecided voters , so any event in the campaign may   change the parties fortunes in one way or another ...


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