Spanish elections and politics

[Mike88]

It seems that some Cospedal supporters are against a Casado/Cospedal alliance to overthrow Santamaría: Supporters of Cospedal ask that Casado be integrated into a unique candidacy.

Also, Casado's degree controversy is already back: "Pablo, you have to fix the master."

[Mike88]

Map of elected delegates, or "compromisarios", for the PP congress:



Santamaría has 1,196 compromisarios (44%)
Cospedal has 850 (31%)
Calado has 672 (25%)

Don't know why Cospedal has more compromisarios than Calado, because she polled third in the primaries, but according to these numbers, Santamaría only needs 164 more to be elected leader.

[Mike88]

The number of delegates supporting Casado, Cospedal or Santamaria is not necessarily correlated with their vote on past Thursday. Source?

I found these numbers here: http://electomania.es/comppromisarios/

It's apparently an El Mundo analysis/calculation of the primary election results. It seems that, according to this calculation, that it is "Winner Takes All" by provinces.

[Mike88]

Not very good at predictions, but here goes:

31.8% PSOE-A
21.7% PP-A
19.5% AA
18.0% C's
  4.6% Vox
  1.2% PACMA
  0.6% AxSí
  2.6% Others

66.0% Turnout

[Mike88]

Turnout, until now, is 4% lower compared with 2015:

29.94% 2018 2pm
33.94% 2015 2pm

[Mike88]

30% turnout in Andalucia at 14:00. This is down from 34% turnout in 2015. In theory low turnout should help PP and especially PSOE, to the detriment of AA and Cs.

Yeah, turnout is especially lower in two PSOE bastions, Sevilla and Jaén. In both places, turnout is 6% lower compared with 2015. We'll see if the low turnout trend is confirmed at 6pm.

[Mike88]

Turnout also down at 18:00, as 46.5% had cast a ballot. In 2015, at the same time, it was 51.4%

The final turnout figure will likely be something between 58-61%.

By provinces, turnout is down in all 8 provinces, but is higher in PP friendly ones than in PSOE provinces.

[Mike88]

According to El Mundo, both PSOE and PP, with the current turnout figures and on the ground reports, assume that Vox will get 7 or 8 seats in the Andalusian Parliament.

[Mike88]

Also, for anyone interested, live stream of Canal Sur election coverage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ifh1-NazLJ8

[Mike88]

GAD3 poll, not an exit poll:



Coalition scenarios: (55 for majority)

PP+C's: 41-47 seats
PP+C's+Vox: 49-57 seats
PSOE+C's: 55-59 seats
PSOE+AA: 54-58 seats

[Mike88]

Btw:

Is PP+Cs+VOX even possible if the numbers are there for them ?

Or has either PP or Cs already ruled out a coalition with VOX ?

According to El País, PP insiders say this is a completely new political scene and that Vox's surge opens new possibilities.

[Mike88]

Btw:

Is PP+Cs+VOX even possible if the numbers are there for them ?

Or has either PP or Cs already ruled out a coalition with VOX ?

According to El País, PP insiders say this is a completely new political scene and that Vox's surge opens new possibilities.

While, also according to El País, C's are saying caution, caution and they see as very difficult a sum between PP+C's and Vox.

[Mike88]

More data from the GAD 3 poll. Results by provinces:



PSOE would win all 8 provinces.

[Mike88]

PSOE internal poll:

PSOE: 39-40 seats
PP: 25
C's: 20
AA: 18
Vox: 6-7

[Mike88]

82.8% in:

28.7% PSOE, 33 seats
20.5% PP, 26
17.9% C's, 21
16.2% AA, 17
10.8% Vox, 12
  1.9% PACMA

[Mike88]

88.8% in:

28.5% PSOE, 34 seats
20.6% PP, 26
18.0% C's, 20
16.2% AA, 17
10.8% Vox, 12

49.4% PP+C's+VOX, 58 seats
44.7% PSOE+AA, 51

[Mike88]

Rivera said C's would present its own candidate for the investiture vote, rather than to support the PP candidate. Is this just election night talk, or could C's refuse to support the PP candidate?

[Mike88]

Rivera said C's would present its own candidate for the investiture vote, rather than to support the PP candidate. Is this just election night talk, or could C's refuse to support the PP candidate?

It would be destroyed electorally. They will ultimately support the pp

Yeah, only possibility I see (and it's essencially impossible) it's a "Borgen-like" scenario where Cs' candidate wins, propped up by PSOE and a Podemos abstention.

So it's basically election night talk. Rivera is trying to gain momentum from this, but, at the end of the day, he probably knows he has no option other than support Moreno.

[Mike88]

This is the biggest middle finger the voters could have given the Sanchez govt, when you lose a safe state for the first time in forever, something is going wrong. Does this make the eventual election occur sooner (parties flee a loser) or later (rally around the center to prevent losses)?

Another dimension that I have not seen discussed yet is the UK angle. Voters might not have liked Sanchez's transparent postering, or they might not have like the 11th hour deal he agreed to with the UK to 'solve' the Gibraltar issue. It's the only thing resembling a October surprise that could have occurred.

Sanchéz government was already, basically, on life-support even before the Andalusian election. He doesn't have the votes to pass his budget as the Catalan parties are refusing to support him because of the treatment of the jailed separatists. And this disastrous results for the PSOE, only makes things worse for him, as he will be pressured by both left and right, and it's unclear how he would act under pressure.

About the Gibraltar issue, it's just my opinion, but he made a fool of himself by acting all tough and "patriotic" and then caving in, like you said, at the 11th hour.

[Mike88]

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

[Mike88]

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

But would this not lead to an ungovernability crisis after the next elections if these numbers hold on the premise that C will refuse to be in the same government as UP nor Vox.  Even a PSOE-PP grand alliance would not work.

In a ungovernability crisis, Spain is already in one, sort of. But, yeah, these numbers don't exude stability. About C's, i don't think Vox would be a big issue as they would only negotiate with PP and then, maybe give crumbs to Vox to assure their votes in an investiture. After that, a PP-C's, or C's-PP, could govern with the occasional support of Vox or juggle with the divisions in the PSOE. That's my take.

[Mike88]

More polling:

Hamalgama–Ágora Integral poll: (never heard of them)

22.5% PP, 84/86 seats
21.2% PSOE, 74/78
19.3% UP, 62/65
18.2% C's, 67/70
  8.7% Vox, 28/29
  2.5% ERC, 8
  2.0% PNV, 7
  1.8% PDeCAT, 4/5
  0.6% Bildu, 2
  0.2% CC, 0/1
  3.0% Others

NC Report poll:

24.2% PSOE, 98 seats
24.0% PP, 99
18.7% C's, 64
16.6% UP, 48
  9.4% Vox, 18

KeyData/Público poll:

22.3% PSOE, 98 seats
21.5% PP, 89
19.8% C's, 67
14.8% UP, 51
10.3% Vox, 18
  3.1% ERC, 12
  1.6% PDeCAT, 6
  1.1% PNV, 6
  0.9% Bildu, 2
  0.3% CC, 1
  4.3% Others
  
Don't understand the seat projection from KeyData. I would assume PP would be ahead by 1 or 2 seats or basically tied with PSOE.

[Mike88]

NC-Report poll for the Community of Madrid:

21.3% PP, 31 seats
20.4% PSOE, 30
18.9% C's, 27
13.2% Más Madrid, 19
10.4% Vox, 15
  7.4% UP, 10
  8.4% Others

Invymark poll for la Sexta TV:

23.9% PSOE, 96 seats
21.3% PP, 91
20.9% C's, 76
13.5% UP, 35
11.2% Vox, 28
  9.4% Others, 24

CIS poll: (lol)

29.9% PSOE
17.7% C's
15.4% UP
14.9% PP
  6.5% Vox
  4.7% ERC
  1.7% PACMA
  1.3% PNV
  1.1% Bildu
  1.0% PDeCAT
  0.2% CC
  5.6% Others

[Mike88]

Regarding the polls yeah, forget about the CIS poll, it's totally rigged. Probably a terrible decision on Sánchez's part.

In any case, they all just confirm what we knew. At the national level PSOE is favoured to be the largest party but the right will probably get a majority so who cares. The big question is whether PSOE+Cs is possible or not. Right now it seems they will fail but maybe they'll rise in the future?

Same for the Madrid poll except there's a 3 way tie for first there. In any case I rate Madrid Lean Cs as of now, though I guess I should move it to a PP-Cs tossup

The CIS debacle is just ridiculous. Anyway, i think that, in the future, a PSOE/C's coalition may be possible, but currently i think Sanchéz is an impossible pill for many C's voters to swallow. If, in the future, a more centrist/moderate PSOE leader emerges, C's could find themselves more "cozy" with PSOE rather than with PP.

The Spanish 2019 elections will probably be one of the most unpredictable ever. In many cities and communities there is a very close 3 way race between PSOE/PP/C's and a huge surge of Vox.

[Mike88]

Yeah, i agree that the 2019 May elections will be critical for Sanchéz permanence in power, but, UP's results may have a big influence now. Electomania, i know they are not a legit pollester, made a poll for the EU elections that shows PP very low, Vox well ahead of UP and PSOE and C's neck and neck.

Could the implosion of UP force Sanchéz to turn to the right in order to please C's voters/politicians and gain their support?