Spanish elections and politics

[Former President tack50]

And day 1 (of 2 apparently) of Iglesias' no confidence vote is over. Tomorrow apparently the 4 main parties will talk (PP, PSOE, Podemos and allies and Cs), with today only seeing Rajoy (incumbent PM), Iglesias (PM alternative) and Irene Montero (Speaker of the group who presented the no confidence vote), as well as the speakers from the regionalist parties.

As for who won, nobody knows. Everyone will defend his party of course, and almost no one will watch the 8 hours or so that the full debate lasted (plus tomorrow's interventions).

[Former President tack50]

Results of the no confidence vote. Requires 176 votes in favour (an overall majority)

Yea (82) Podemos, Compromís, ERC, Bildu

Nay (170): PP, Cs, CC

Abstaining (98) PSOE, NC, PDECat, PNV

No big surprises tbh. I do wonder slightly about some of the small regional parties but for the most part there were no big surprises.

Also, watching CC's very harsh intervention a deal between Podemos and CC is out of the window now (PSOE+UP+ERC+PDECat+Bildu+CC).

In other words the only 2 viable routes for a successful no confidence vote are:
PSOE+Cs+UP
PSOE+UP+PNV+ERC+PDECat.

Then again neither route is particularly likely.

[Former President tack50]

Simple Lógica poll

http://electomania.es/20170616simplelogica/

PP: 29.9%
PSOE: 25.3%
UP: 18.6%
Cs: 16.8%
Others: 9.4%

Approval ratings

Mariano Rajoy: 28,5%
Pedro Sánchez 29%
Pablo Iglesias 20,5%
Albert Rivera 40%
Alberto Garzón 29,7%

Spanish politicians for some reason always have terrible approval ratings. When was the last time the Spanish PM had a positive approval rating? (Ie either at least a 5/10 or positive net approval). I guess Zapatero early in his term? (2006 or so, I found a 2007 poll which put him at only -3 net approval)

Also, the "Sánchez effect" is confirmed. And how long will it last though? Considering he has moderated himself after winning, I can't see it being permanent. He wants to push for a PSOE+Cs+UP deal, which is impossible. Most people are saying that we've basically returned to early 2016 politically except this time with a government.

I keep hearing that Rajoy will not pass a budget for 2018, instead just using 2017's budget, and probably call a snap election in late 2018/early 2019. I hope it's 2018. 2019 has way too many elections already: there's the regional ones, the EU parliament one and assuming they don't call snap elections, the Andalusian and Catalan ones (this last one is almost certain to be a snap election next year though, because of the pruces)

[Former President tack50]

Ok, so today the New York Times published an editorial piece about Catalonia, encouraging the government to do a legal referendum.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/23/opinion/catalonias-challenge-to-spain.html?ref=opinion&referer=http://www.elperiodico.com/es/

I guess the prucés is becoming kinda internationalized after all? I mean, an editorial is not much, but the NYT is probably one of the most respected newspapers worldwide. Then again no countries support the Catalan government.

My prediction for the "referendum" is a repeat of 2014, ie low turnout and 90% yes. Maybe slightly better (say, 50% turnout and 70% yes votes)

[Former President tack50]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.euronews.com/2017/07/04/catalonia-vows-to-split-from-span-in-48-hours---after-october-vote

Supposing that the referendum takes place and the independentists win with the other side boycotting the vote, what happens next? Would Madrid send in soldiers? Or would they do that before the vote?

In theory you would have the Spanish government activating article 155 of the constitution, which states:

If a Self-governing Community does not fulfil the obligations imposed upon it by the
Constitution or other laws, or acts in a way that is seriously prejudicial to the general interest
of Spain, the Government, after having lodged a complaint with the President of the  Community and failed to receive satisfaction therefore, may, following approval granted by the overall majority of the Senate, take all measures necessary to compel the Community to meet said obligations, or to protect the abovementioned general interest.

What that means is basically that Catalonia's government is suspended temporarily. PP has an absolute majority in the Senate so there's no chance of the opposition blocking that move somehow as well. It's also likely that the entire Catalan cabinet gets arrested by the Guardia Civil under charges of sedition, treason or something like that. After that, who knows?

If there's no resistance, then the thing ends there. There would probably be a temporary appointed governor or something, and maybe a snap regional election.

If there's resistance however, then you do have the repression, the army intervening and what not, but I personally think that's extremely unlikely. The Mossos (Catalonia's police) would probably not fight the national police or army, and other than protests where some members could turn violent, nothing else would happen.

Anyways, I think Rajoy won't do anything until the day they officially declare independence. The so-called referendum will happen, but it will be like the 2014 one.

[Former President tack50]

Also, an interesting poll about what should be done about Catalonia according to the rest of Spain:

If the Spanish Government forbids the referendum but the Catalan government does one regardless, should Catalonia's autonomy be suspended? (yes-no-don't know)

Overall: 40-48-12

PP voters: 56-30-14
PSOE voters: 44-46-11
UP voters: 24-64-12
Cs voters:  57-32-10

18-25 year olds: 36-58-6
26-35 year olds: 42-51-7
36-45 year olds: 40-52-8
46-55 year olds: 34-55-11
56-65 year olds: 41-32-28
66-75 year olds: 50-34-16

Interestingly the numbers are a lot lower in Catalonia, with only 15% of Catalans supporting the suspension of their autonomy if necessary, and 80% rejecting it.

Should the Spanish government allow the referendum to happen? (yes-no-don't know)

Overall: 39-55-7

PP voters: 17-79
PSOE voters: 35-61
UP voters: 61-33
Cs voters: 13-84

Poll about whether a referendum should happen:

Options:
-I don't support any kind of referendum
-I support a referendum only if all Spaniards vote
-I support a referendum even if only people in Catalonia can vote

Overall: 28-47-22
Catalonia: 14-22-61
Rest of Spain: 31-52-15

PP voters: 46-48-? (very small)
PSOE voters: 30-47-20
UP voters: 8-49-41
Cs voters: 41-52-7

http://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2017-07-05/encuesta-dym-40-espanoles-suspension-autonomia-cataluna-si-hay-referendum_1409218/

[Former President tack50]

Ugh, so as usual nationalist dick-waving is distracting people from the real issues (austerity, corruption, etc.)?

Yeah, Catalonia is one of the recurring themes in our elections, alongside Venezuela and a couple others.

For all what's worth if you want news about the real issues: the government has started to draft the 2018 budget. The spending cap has been marginally increased, but the allowed budget deficits are smaller (so town halls must have a balanced budget, communities are allowed up to 0.3% deficit and the central government 0.6%).

It will be voted by the Congress in less than a week, but PSOE will vote against it, unlike last time (when they voted in favour of the 2017 spending cap but against the full 2017 budget).

It is expected to pass with the same extremely narrow majority as 2017's full budget though (so: PP+Cs+PNV Basque nationalists+CC Canarian Nationalists+NCa Canarian nationalists). NC might abstain making it a 175-174 vote though, but either way it doesn't change the result.

As you can see, even here you need nationalism, you can't have Spanish politics without having to deal with them. And actually, fun fact: Most nationalist parties are at their lowest point in their history. Let's go 1 by 1:

Catalonia

PDECat (formerly CiU) is in a terrible shape due to the independence stuff backfiring. They seem to have lost the lead in Catalan nationalism, being surpassed by ERC. They used to have twice as many MPs, and regional polls put them as low as 6th! (even behind PP, which never got a foothold in Catalonia)

ERC is on the best moment however, with only the 2004 period coming close (when they had 8 MPs, only one less than now).

The total amount of Catalan nationalism seems to be stagnant though, with ERC+CiU/PDECat not changing much. What has changed is probably the more autonomy/independence ratio (2004 was not an exception to more autonomy being favoured as ERC was less pro independence then)

Basque country

PNV is on an ok moment. At the national level they aren't doing that well, with only 5 MPs, but they haven't gone off a cliff like PDECat. In Basque elections they are doing remarkably well though. They even gained a seat when they were initially expected to lose some!

Basque independentism is doing quite badly though. Basque independentism is at its lowest point in decades. However Bildu itself is doing ok at the national level (2 MPs is half of what they had in 2011, but still more or less what Batasuna used to get), and at the Basque level they are also not too bad (although they did lose a couple seats)

Overall similar to Catalonia, it's less of a shift in nationalism itself and more of a shift in the autonomy/independence ratio, this time towards the former, but with a smaller shift.

Canary Islands

Here there is almost no desire for independence to begin with. However, Canarian nationalism is in a reverse situation compared to Basque one. Here the amount of people who identify as Canarian is more or less stagnant, but the nationalist parties are falling.

CC has been slowly but surely declining since their peak in 2000. At the national level they used to have 4 MPs, now they have 1. I personally think Oramas is safe, but her party is definitely not doing well.

The situation at the Canarian level is just as bad. The party has basically disappeared in Gran Canaria, the 2nd most populated island (interestingly, the Lt. Governor is from there, so he might actually lose his seat in the next regional election!), and I don't see them regaining a footbase there any time soon.

What's keeping them afloat is mostly the electoral system, where the minor islands (where they perform well) have 50% of the seats with only 17% of the population. In fact, they are the largest party in terms of seats in the Canarian parliament, but they came in third in the election, with only 18.2%! (compared to PP's 18.7% and PSOE's 19.9%). I'm pretty sure Fernando Clavijo is the governor in Spain with the least support for his party, maybe in Spain's history!

The NC nationalists are doing better, but still not great. Against most polls (which admittedly were off), Pedro Quevedo held his seat (contested alongside PSOE) and has been decisive passing the budget, and has received several concessions for the islands (like for example an increase on the flight subsidies between islands, basically making all flights 50% off from now on). However, NC does not contest elections alone so they are dependent on PSOE doing well.

At the Canarian level they are well off, but probably slightly underwhelming, they barely increased in votes in 2015. They do control the Gran Canaria island council, but that's actually telling of their main problem. They are basically seen as the Gran Canaria party (not quite to the exent of say, the "La Gomera's Socialist Group", but still). The only other island where they got MPs was Lanzarote, and they didn't even break 5% in the most populated island (Tenerife), and only got over 7% in Lanzarote and GC. I still see them going up though, but there's only so many votes you can get with only Gran Canaria. They probably have a ceiling of 16% or so in their current shape.

Other nationalists

Galician nationalism is in a bad shape. The BNG failed to get a seat in 2015 for the first time in a long time, and lost some seats in the regional election. Somehow PP is seen as Galician nationalist there, so they can only get some nationalists on the left.

Navarra is very weird IMO so I won't get into their regional level. At their national level it's worth noting that Geroa Bai failed to get a seat, just like BNG in Galicia.

Valencian nationalism on the contrary is prettty well off. At the national level they have 4 seats, more than UV ever got in the 80s or 90s. They did contest the election alongside Podemos though. At the regional level they are also very well off, and I can actually see a 25% chance or so of them getting the governorship for the first time ever!

Balearic nationalism is also well off. I don't think Mes has any MPs in Congress, but Balearic nationalism has roughly twice as many seats as it used to get. There also seems to be a right wing nationalist party, which will help Balearic nationalists.

I guess these 2 are helped by the rise in prominence of Catalan nationalism? Then again I don't think the "Paisos Catalans" thing is popular in either Valencia or the Balearic Islands.

Andalucia used to have nationalist parties, but they are dead and buried nowadays. Asturias has Foro Asturias, but they are less of a nationalist party and more of a glorified PP split.

 And Cantabria has the PRC (Gov. Revilla's party) but it seems like the kind of party that will die once Revilla retires (again, just like Foro Asturias, which is struggling to remain relevant now that its leader, Álvarez Cascos, has retired from politics)

[Former President tack50]

it's not 1817. it's 2017. so why is venezuela theme in spanish election?

It's used to attack Podemos, whose leaders have some ties to Chavez and Maduro's regimes. Nothing illegal, but still enough for attacks from the right.

[Former President tack50]

Why are the Spanish government so viscerally opposed to holding a referendum anyway?

I vaguely remember seeing some polling that indicated a narrow lead in favour of staying in Spain - surely if the government sanctioned a referendum, and it failed, that would pretty much kill off the movement, as happened in Quebec.

Also, is there any indication of what demographics tend to support independence more, beyond the urban-rural split? Is it more popular with younger people, working class people?

Iirc other than the urban-rural split there's also an age split, with younger voters being more favourable to independence than old voters. That is often used by the hard right as an argument to say that  the Catalan government is "brainwashing" kids.

I do not think there's a meaningful split along the lines of income.

[Former President tack50]

Ok, the debt ceiling will be approved this afternoon. The votes will be exactly the same as for the 2017 budget (so, PP+Cs+PNV+CC+NCa), with the minor difference that NCa will abstain instead of voting in favour, turning it into a razor thin 175-174 vote (as opposed to the budget's 176-174)

It is also expected that the 2018 budget will be passed in a similar fashion.

What this means is that basically, Rajoy will be safe for at least another year. He might call an early election in late 2018 but I don't think that is likely even if he were unable to pass a budget for 2019 (he could just recycle the 2018 budget). A budget not being passed has been used in the past as the excuse for an early election though (so the 1996 election was called a year early after González was unable to pass a budget for the year) so who knows.

I do think a 2019 election is a lot more likely though, maybe even one in 2020, as far late as the law allows. 2019's only disadvantage is that there will be election fatigue with the european and regional elections that same year, but low turnout probably benefits PP anyways so he might go for it.

[Former President tack50]

OK, so Catalonia governor Puigdemont has fired 3 of his "ministers" because they weren't seen as loyal enough to the referendum. This is alongside the one he fired last week or the week before for the same reason, saying that he didn't think the referendum would happen.

I guess the Catalan government is in crisis mode? In any case, the 2nd of October will be a very interesting day.

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2017/07/14/catalunya/1500016796_828492.html

[Former President tack50]

2 new polls about Catalan independence have been released. They probably have a pro-independence bias, particularly the ARA poll, but still seems better than nothing:

CEO poll:


¿Should Catalonia become an independent state? (all voting age people)

Yes: 41.1%
No: 49.4%

Note that this is the worst result for "yes" since 2012 or so.

Catalonia should be...

An independent state: 34.7%
An autonomous community of Spain: 30.5%
An state inside a federal Spain: 21.7%
A region of Spain: 5.3%

Again worst result for independence since 2012.

Are you in favour of a referendum?

Yes, even if it's unilateral: 48%
Yes, but only if it's through a deal with the Spanish government: 23.4%
No, never: 22.6%

Estimated results of the 1st of October unilateral referendum

Yes: 62.4%
No: 37.6%

Turnout: 67.5%

Note that while independence support is going down, this would actually be a terrible result for unionists since it has both a supermajority for independence and a relatively high turnout, giving the Catalan government quite a lot of legitimacy!

http://ceo.gencat.cat/ceop/AppJava/pages/home/fitxaEstudi.html?colId=6288&lastTitle=Bar%F2metre+d%27Opini%F3+Pol%EDtica.+2a+onada+2017

ARA poll

Results



Estimated turnout:



Turnout by party:



Turnout by possition on independence



Voting intentions on the unilateral referendum by party



Neutral numbers for unionists here (both unionism and independentism go down in support for "don't know"), but again, if the referendum does happen in the end the numbers look really bad.

And the alternatives aren't much better. The government could try to negotiate with Puigdemont and make a legal referendum, but that's probably not going to happen and even if it did it would be very risky. Alternatively Rajoy could just activate article 155 and send the Guardia Civil to stop the referendum but creating martyrs would only increase support for independence.

[Former President tack50]

There has been a massive roadkill (is that the English term?) in one of Barcelona's most important streets. Not much is known but hopefully everything is alright. Several people are injured.

Here's a live news thing by El Periódico

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/barcelona/20170817/una-furgoneta-arrolla-a-varias-personas-en-la-rambla-de-barcelona-6228813

Edit 1: Terrorist attack confirmed. 20-25 injured, possibly 1 dead. Spanish passport found.

Edit 2: The terrorist(s) van driver are locked in a Turkish restaurant near La Boqueria. He has hostages.

Edit 3: The terrorists have split. One has gone missing the 2nd has hostages on that restaurant. There has been a shooting. 2 dead.

Edit 4: Live updates by The Guardian in English https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/aug/17/barcelona-attack-van-driven-into-crowd-in-las-ramblas-district

Edit 5: The area is completely locked down and evacuated with several metro stations closed. Also all major party leaders and politicians have condemned the attack.

Edit 6: 3 people dead now. The terrorist who escaped apparently escaped in a second van.

Edit 7: "up to" 6 dead, Spanish ID with an Arabic name on it found

Edit 8: 13 dead. The shooting I mentioned prior was a rumour and it didn't happen in the end.

[Former President tack50]

Well, yesterday's protest against terrorism, with the slogan "No tinc por" (I'm not afraid) has been quite controversial since it has been politizised by basically everyone in the political spectrum. You had republican flags, Spanish flags, Pro-independence flags, signs protesting the king's relations with Saudi Arabia, etc. The king got booed as well.

Both sides politizised this. Why? Can't we all march against terrorism without making a political statement?





Anyways, IMO at least 2 good things happened:

• Turnout was quite high, with half a million people attending the prostests. That's quite high. For reference last year's pro-independence marches attracted 625 000 people.
• It was attended by everyone in the political spectrum. The king was there (first time the king of Spain attends a public protest). The main political leaders (Rajoy, Rivera, Sánchez, Iglesias and the leaders of the regionalist parties) were there. All of Rajoy's cabinet was there. All 17 autonomous community governors were there.
   The march was boycotted by no one, not even CUP! (though they did threaten to do so because the king was there, but backtracked)

[Former President tack50]

Catalonia's government has released some crucial details about their "transition law" that would be activated if yes wins in their referendum.

It will be passed some time before the 1st of October.

Catalonia's superior justice court will become the Supreme Court. The president will be elected by a mixed commision with 5 members elected by the government and 4 by lower judges. The attorney general will be elected by parliament with an absolute majority. Judges dependent on Catalonia will remain on their jobs, but those that are from Spanish courts will be fired

The transition law will give amnesty to those prosecuted because of the independence process, including people like former governor Artur Mas, former deputy governor Joana Ortega, former speaker of the Generalitat and former leader of CDC in Congress Francesc Homs and former secretary of education Irene Rigau, all condemned because of their involvement in the 2014 illegal consultation

Spain's buildings in Catalonia will be expropiated. All Spanish civil servants will become Catalan civil servants.

It assumes that Catalonia will remain in the EU. All EU laws will automatically become Catalan laws, even after independence.

Having the Catalan nationality will not be incompatible with the Spanish one.

Catalonia won't pay its part of the Spanish debt unless there's a negotiation with Spain.

After 6 months there will be new elections to a constituent assembly to design a new constitution for Catalonia.

The official languages would be kept: Spanish, Catalan and Aranese

All powers of Spain over Catalonia would vanish

You can check the full text (in Catalan) here: https://tinyurl.com/y99vkf9z

[Former President tack50]

You can check the full text (in Catalan) here:

The link is too big.

Ok, fixed it by taking it through tinyurl

[Former President tack50]

Leader of Cs, Albert Rivera has presented his party's proposal for term limits. PP has already anounced that they will vote against it so they are looking forward to passing it with PSOE and Podemos support.

There are doubts about its constitutionality though. Cs argues that it can be passed as a standard law, just by reforming the Government Law, but PP thinks that a constitutional reform is needed.

In any case, if Rajoy called for a snap election in 2019 or before he would not be affected by it. Also interestingly if Rajoy stepped down and someone else became PM for 4 years Rajoy would be eligible again after those 4 years. So it's not an absolute term limit.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2017/09/04/59ad4898468aeb3b7d8b469d.html

[Former President tack50]

Catalan referendum. Yes vote up to 72% because of PP-C's abstention a.

"Would you go vote if there is a referendum?"

"If you went to vote, what would you vote for?"


source : http://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20170904/244226382_0.html

Unless C's and PP voters turn up I imagine the turnout will be too low for it to be considered remotely serious. Interested in what tack50 and Velasco think will happen though. It might be a 1921 Ireland situation where a paralel legal system and state institution is set up without recognition of a part of the population.

Well, that same poll predicts 50% turnout, which wouldn't be that low. The last European election in Catalonia for example had 48% turnout. The last town hall election had 59% turnout. So 50% turnout would actually be higher than a european election! And not that low compared to a town hall one!

However the last general election had 66% turnout and the last regional one had 75% turnout so it would still be considered very low.

Also on european elections it's just that people don't care, all parties see their voters turn out less in more or less the same proportion. Meanwhile here you'd have an organized boycott by unionists which would make the results worthless.

Then again this is all assuming the referendum happens, which is not guaranteed. Rajoy has promised that there won't be any referendum, not even one like the 2014 one. Not sure how things will go in the end though. Unless "no" miraculously wins in the referendum or Puigdemont chickens out and dissolves the regional assembly soon, Catalonia's autonomy will be eventually suspended. We are heading towards a train crash. It's probably a matter of when, not if.


Anyways, today the pro-independence side had planned to pass their referendum law. The debate has been a complete sh**tshow and the regional assembly's rules have been bent quite a bit. Of course the unionist side has been opposed to all of this.

There have been several reactions. PM Rajoy has asked the Constitutional Court to basically declare void anything passed by the Catalan parliament today. Also the Catalan fiscal has said they will prosecute those members of the Catalan parliament's table (the ones who set the schedule for the day) who passed the measure to include the referendum law in the schedule of the day.

[Former President tack50]

Well, I guess most unionists don't want to legitimize the referendum. But it's worth noting that turnout is higher than in the 2014 one precisely because of some unionists going out to vote (mostly from Podemos). 2014 saw 90% yes but 35% turnout. Because of higher unionist turnout that 90% yes will go down to 70%.

However I don't think unionists want to risk it unless the referendum is 100% legal. And while overall polls do show unionists often winning it's usually close, if a true 100% legal referendum happened I could see another surprise like Brexit or Trump happening.

Keep in mind that if you take Podemos out unionists lose the 2015 election. PP+PSC+Cs get 39.1%, JxSí+CUP get 47.8%.

As for who will benefit, I don't think Puigdemont will benefit. On the Catalan side the real beneficiary will actually be ERC leader Oriol Junqueras. ERC is expected to win any regional election in a landslide while PDECat is expected to fall. PP, PSC and Cs are probably going to fall, most Catalans are against their autonomy being taken away. Podemos might rise and in fact it's already rising.

On the Spanish side, Rajoy might win some support but I'm not totally convinced, Rivera is also a very staunch unionist.

Sánchez is almost completely against it but he has made some blunders reciently about his federal state, saying: "All nations are in Spain", then saying only Galicia, Catalonia, Basque Country and Spain are nations, his endorsed candidate in Madrid saying that Madrid is a nation and with many regional leaders still opposed to him, his ideas and his leadership. On the other hand his proposal for a commision to reform the autonomies and solve the Catalan issue has been accepted by all parties, from PP to Podemos. Only ERC has said they won't participate.

Iglesias is the only one in favour of the referendum.

My guess is that Podemos and PSOE go down and Cs and PP go up again.

Finally, as for how the votes went, keep in mind that there's a final vote about the referendum that hasn't still happened. The other 2 were to bend the rules to allow the debate of the law to happen.

The first passed 72 in favour, 60 against, 3 abstaining

On the second almost all unionists refused to vote in protest to the chaos that was the voting. It passed 69 in favour, 3 against and 0 abstaining.

So it seems that Podemos split, with 3 MPs abstaining and the other 8 voting against alongside PP, Cs and PSC.

Also, the European People's Party group in the EU parliament has backed PP. Not exactly unexpected but whatever. I will say that this is where Unió's MEPs used to sit though. https://twitter.com/EPP/status/905489350372282368

And in my opinion if ALDE (where PDECat's MEPs sit) backs the unionists as well it's over. They won't get any EU support. Not like the EU was ever expected to side with Catalonia but still.

[Former President tack50]

2 final news for the day:

First of all, the referendum law has been passed. PP, Cs and PSC's MPs refused to vote and just left the chamber (PP's MPs also left Spanish and Catalan flags behind).

The official tally was:

Yes: 72 (JxSí, CUP)
No: 0
Abstaining 11 (Podemos)

Also, and this was kind of unexpected to me, Catalan opposition leader Ines Arrimadas (Cs) has said that she will present a no confidence vote against governor Puigdemont. Not like it has a chance of passing but still. It would need either CUP support (lol) or at least 5 JxSí defectors (almost certainly from PDECat).

She says her objective is to force new regional elections.

http://www.antena3.com/noticias/espana/arrimadas-anuncia-mocion-censura-puigdemont_2017090659b04f8f0cf27a5b1bd80efd.html

[Former President tack50]

In a shocking ^/s turn of events, the Constitutional Court has struck down the Catalan referendum. Also reminded mayors that they should not take part in it.

The Catalan government sent a letter asking all of Catalonia's mayors (all 946 of them) to say if they'll lend municipal spaces for the referendum.

Thus far more than 2/3 of all mayors (628) have said they'll support the referendum and lend municipal spaces while only 12 have spoken against it. However those 12 mayors are mayors of large municipalities while the ones who pledge support are mostly from small towns, with a few exceptions.

So in terms of population the unionists are actually winning, with 44% of mayors by population rejecting the referendum and 41.6% in favour. 290 mayors comprising the reminder of Catalonia's poulation have not answered.

The 12 town halls that said no include: Tarragona city, Lleida city, Barcelona city (though mayor Colau was somewhat ambiguous but most include her on the "no" side), L'Hospitalet and Cornellá.

On the yes side the most relevant ones seem to be Girona city and Badalona.

[Former President tack50]

It's been a while since I last posted a poll, so here are 2 new national ones and 2 regional ones (one for Catalonia, another for the Canary Islands):

ABC-GAD3 poll

PP: 31.9% (131)
PSOE: 23.9% (94)
UP: 18.4% (57)
Cs: 15.8% (41)

ERC: 14
PDECat: 4
PNV: 6
Bildu: 2
CC: 1

Approval ratings (out of 10)

Mariano Rajoy: 3.8
Pedro Sánchez: 3.8
Pablo Iglesias: 3.3
Albert Rivera: 4.3

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-encuesta-gad3-para-abc-bloque-pp-y-ciudadanos-aumenta-21-escanos-ventaja-sobre-psoe-y-podemos-201709100257_noticia.html

El Mundo-Sigma Dos

PP: 30.8%
PSOE: 26.4%
UP: 19.5%
Cs: 12.7%

ERC: 2.3%
PNV: 1.2%
PDECat: 1.3%

El Español-Sociométrica, Catalonia's parliament (135 seats, 68 for a majority)



Hamalgama and Ágora Integral poll for La Provincia and La Opinión de Tenerife, Canary Islands parliament (60 seats, 31 for a majority)

PSOE: 23.8% (18/19)
CC: 17.3% (15/16)
PP: 20.2% (11)
Podemos: 14.2% (6)
NC: 9.8% (4)
ASG: 0.6% (3)
Cs: 7.0% (2)

Yes, CC is 3rd in the popular vote but 2nd in terms of seats.

http://www.laopinion.es/canarias/2017/09/10/psoe-dispara-islas-suma-pacto/807517.html

[Former President tack50]

Worth noting that he doesn't even have the support of the Spanish Congress! A Cs proposal to signal support towards the government and the judiciary failed yesterday after PSOE unexpectedly voted against, claiming the proposal should also signal support to negotiate with the Catalan government.

In the end only PP and Cs voted in favour. Canarian nationalists and 4 PSOE defectors abstained and everyone else voted against.

[Former President tack50]

The Spanish government has delayed the 2018 budget. That means they won't be able to pass it on time, instead having to pass it late like they did for last year. The government expects to pass it some time in January.

The reason? They have been unable to reach an agreement with the Basque PNV. The reason is probably Catalonia at least partially, PNV has been a big defender of a referendum agreed between the Spanish and Catalan governments. They also threatened the government with exactly this last week. According to them because of the dire situation in Catalonia it's no time to begin budget negotiations.

I do think PNV will bulge after October though. I would expect budget negotiations to start in late October with the budget being passed late in January or December (the budget has to start being drafted at least 3 months before January 1st in order not to be a late budget I think).

An early election in 2018 is a possibility, particularly if Rajoy thinks PP will be benefited (a la May 2017). I think it's unlikely though, their 2016 result was probably as good as it can get under the current 4 party system.

http://www.20minutos.es/noticia/3145260/0/gobierno-prorroga-presupuestos-generales-2018/

[Former President tack50]

D-Day is here people. Today is the date for the unilateral Catalan independence referendum. I will say that it's being a sh**tshow on both sides.

The referendum has only barely more credibilty than a North Korean election. There's no functioning census even though the pro-independence side illegally used one, many polling places have been closed, the telecommunications system to count the votes is down, in many places people are voting without envelopes, etc. Even the 2014 one was better organized.

On the other hand the Spanish government's repression has just made things worse. Why they didn't just allow them to vote I won't understand. Just say that the referendum is illegal and boycott it and that's it. They already did that in 2014, they could just have done it again!

My only guess is that Rajoy wanted to look "tough on Catalonia" and that there are a lot of critics from his right asking for a tougher response, but still.