Spanish elections and politics

[Nanwe]

All in all, it's been a weird night. Turnout far lower than expected (73 vs. 77-80), "great" night for the PSOE and Podemos (even if bitter-sweet for both)l, C's really underperformed although they were also quite hurt by the electoral system and I suppose this last week when they lost a lot of momentum did not help and resulted in potential voters sating home (?). The party got 14%, which is far lower than expected by, anyone since, idk, March or so?

The creation of a government is going to be tough. Hopefully grand coalition that manages to implement constitutional, institutional and electoral reforms. Also, a consensus on education would be neat. That's my wish list

Results are really hard to interpretate . My first impression is that we have a country that is divided in several fracture lines. To begin with, territorial breakdown is quite complex and fascinación (hhonestly, I didn't  expect the Podemos extraordinary performance in myCatalonia and the Basque Country ). Not to mention the generational gap  and many other factors that  I 'm  missing .

As for Ciudadanos, in my opinion they lost momentum because gradually they were perceived as an implicit ally for PP rather than an alternative , making their inconsistencies more evident . Their underperformance in Catalonia together with the ECP success is worthy of mention.

I think that a Grand Coalition should be dismissed .  PSOE can't support an administration headed by Rajoy , who is not a decent polítician according to Pedro Sánchez . There is a lot of media speculation right new, including the possibility of a government headed by Soraya backed by C's and with the abstention of PSOE  in the investiture . I can hardly see Rajoy quitting  just like that. I see the path to reforms blocked by the huge differences between the different forces and that PP majority in the Senate .

Parlamentary elections without a threshold (min. 5%) end like that...

Spain has a 3% threshold in theory, 10-15% in practice ¬¬

[Nanwe]

Lmao CuP

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-catalonia-idUKKBN0UA0NQ20151227

Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.

[Nanwe]

Lmao CuP

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-catalonia-idUKKBN0UA0NQ20151227

Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.

Why would the nationalists take a beating? Especially in light of national (i.e Madrid-based) politics?

Because they did in the general election and because the few polls there are seem to indicate so. I don't mean they'll crush but well...

Btw, elections will be held in March, the CUP just announced it will vote 5 for and 5 against, meaning, Mas doesn't have a majority or a plurality (for the second round) and since by next Sunday, the deadline will be met, new elections will be held automatically, in March. Fun times. CiU is about to be eclipsed by ERC as the main Catalanist party. And I venture to say that CDC will rid itself of Mas and might become (once again) a determining part of the Spanish process of government-formation.

[Nanwe]

The most recent poll i can find (from NYE) has very little change from the election.

I wonder why Catalunya Sí que es Pot is so much less popular than En Comú Podem?

Well, the Catalan debate right now is polarised between independence or staying in Spain, so the middle-of-the-road position of CSQP of holding a referendum but voting against independence is not able to arouse much support. And also, as Podemos put as their main candidate Lluis Rabell, who had no charisma to speak of (even borrowed from Iglesias), they suffered. Also, Catalan voters are historically dual, meaning that they do not necessarily (or usually) vote the same in general and in Catalan elections: They will vote for the party they believe can best defend Catalonia within the Spanish institutions (PSOE, now Podemos) but at the regional level it's a different story. See, all the people who voted CiU at the regional level, but PSOE-PSC at the national one.

The problem with polls is that it's rather likely JxS will explode, and become CDC and ERC once again, this time with ERC becoming the main Catalanist party for the first time since the 30s. Also, the CUP will suffer. It remains to be seen whether or not C's will grow or it will go down, as it did in the general election.

CDC does care somewhat about independence (although they are many within who are ambivalent or just souveranist) but they care far more about their cap being the cap. Essentially Mas has almost absolute control of the party, just like Pujol did, so it's unlikely that even if they wanted (and Spanish parties aren't prone to these things), they could oust him. But you can see a change as you have people close to Mas, like Homs or Mas-Colell already expressing a much more ambivalent message about independence. For instance, during the electoral campaign, DiL was essentially saying independence one day and the next,"let's find a common ground, an accord with Madrid".

[Nanwe]

I wonder why Catalunya Sí que es Pot is so much less popular than En Comú Podem?

The most recent poll i can find (from NYE) has very little change from the election.

I wonder why Catalunya Sí que es Pot is so much less popular than En Comú Podem?

Well, the Catalan debate right now is polarised between independence or staying in Spain, so the middle-of-the-road position of CSQP of holding a referendum but voting against independence is not able to arouse much support. And also, as Podemos put as their main candidate Lluis Rabell, who had no charisma to speak of (even borrowed from Iglesias), they suffered. Also, Catalan voters are historically dual, meaning that they do not necessarily (or usually) vote the same in general and in Catalan elections: They will vote for the party they believe can best defend Catalonia within the Spanish institutions (PSOE, now Podemos) but at the regional level it's a different story. See, all the people who voted CiU at the regional level, but PSOE-PSC at the national one.

There's another factor that makes a difference between Catalunya Sí que es Pot and En Comú Podem, that is the engagement Ada Colau and Barcelona en Comú in the general election. Actually, the main reference of the 'alternative left' in Catalonia is the Mayoress of Barcelona and not Pablo Iglesias. I haven't found polls for the Catalan elections conducted after December 20. In case the ECP alliance is going to be replicated in an early election to take place in March, with Colau taking a starring role, results could be a bit different. Another important factor would be a breakdown of the Junts pel Sí alliance.

Indeed. I think JxS is going to collapse, personally. As for the polls, there's one from La Razón:



JxS: 56 (-6)
C's: 29 (+4)
PSC: 15 (-1)
CSP: 12 (+1)
CUP: 11 (+1)
PP: 10 (-1)
Unió: 2 (+2)

Independence bloc: 67 seats (-5) (68 needed for absolute majority).
Unionists: 54 seats (+2)
Pro-referendum: 14 (+3)

[Nanwe]

I think that poll doesn't reflect the state of public opinion at this moment. Anyway, I never trusted NC Report and La Razón

Obviously But the only other projection is from El Mundo and it appears to be basically just a projection of the general election's results onto the Parlament, which is deficient.

But polling is going to be inaccurate because a) JxSì might collapse and b) will C's unexpected underperformance at the national elvel affect them at the Parlament?, c) will Colau and co. get more involved in the campaign for CSP? and most importantly d) will Iceta manage to win a majority for the PSC with his amazing dance moves? I'm sure he's been practising

[Nanwe]

Lmao CuP

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-catalonia-idUKKBN0UA0NQ20151227

Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.

Why would the nationalists take a beating? Especially in light of national (i.e Madrid-based) politics?

Because they did in the general election and because the few polls there are seem to indicate so. I don't mean they'll crush but well.

But like you said in a later post, Catalans don't seem to want to vote for national parties at a federal level, instead preferring Podemos/PSOE. It seems like the potential switch is between CiU and Erc, which is what confused me when you said the nationalists would struggle. I'm wondering how the Catalan electorate are reacting to the current deadlock in Madrid, that is focused on them? Is it hardening their position?

That is true, and to be honest, it's more of a feeling, I don't think there's yet evidence to support it. I think CDC has suffered a lot in the last legislature, and then there's the fact that the sum of CDC+ERC in seats has consistently gone down since 2010 (and now they don't have an absolute majority together, which they always had since 1980). I think many 'soft' nationalists, after this major blow to the 'procés' from within (first time, until now it was the evil Estat espanyol) will not help them out, plus you can only energise people from so long. Then there's the feeling that ERC is to pass CDC as the main Catalanist party, which won't help JxS to stay together. That could be seen in the general election.

Well, I'm not Catalan, but I'd say somewhat similar to the rest of Spain, waiting and condused by the situation, and thinking whether their territorial demands can be satisfied. I don't think it'll harden positions, instead, I think it can soften them, because (if a PSOE govt, with Podemos or C's, or both or idk happens), then the Government will be flexible. Also, because there's a consensus regarding a change in the financing of the regions and such. But it also depends on whether or not a Government can be formed. Ideally for a change (without a referendum), the best option is a PSOE+PP govt with support from C's and occassional agreements with Podemos for reforming the institutional and constitutional framework, but the situation atm it's far too complicated to tell what's going to happen.

[Nanwe]

http://noticias.lainformacion.com/politica/partidos/un-documento-firmado-por-5-ministros-pide-a-rajoy-irse-para-que-el-pp-gobierne_NLvtzK6RmxOpowQjDmTQ57/

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[Nanwe]

http://noticias.lainformacion.com/politica/partidos/un-documento-firmado-por-5-ministros-pide-a-rajoy-irse-para-que-el-pp-gobierne_NLvtzK6RmxOpowQjDmTQ57/

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"Soy aquí porque somos un equipo" and then she ousts Rajoy of the presidency. Hmm?

Estoy But yes, basically, she's the second in command and her profile is much more amenable to a great coalition than Mariano "LED" Rajoy.

[Nanwe]

Also, an in extremis agreement between JxS and the CUP might have been reached and there'd be an investitute vote tomorrow. While not a 100% confirmed, Mas would resign (and become conseller en cap), and Girona's mayor, Carles Puigdemont (CDC) would become President and in exchange, 8 CUP MP would resign and 2 join JxS because I don't know. In any case, this decision has no support (AFAIK) from any CUP Assembly and there are 4-5 CUP MPs very opposed to CDC altogether, so we'll see if this happens and then if they follow their party's line.

But on the other hand, a JxS deputy just tweeted:

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"So far we have no confirmation neither about the investiture vote tomorrow nor about whom it will be!"

[Nanwe]

If CUP agree to this,they'd reach a whole new level of ridicolousness.

Mas is about to talk to the press, ERC is meeting at 18.00, CDC at 19.00. The CUP I don't know. In any case, 6 CUPaires need to vote yes (and the other 4 don't matter) for an absolute majority, because there can only be one investiture vote and it needs to have an absolute majority. There's no time for a second round, since if there's no President by Monday, elections will be held on March.

And there could be a rebellion in CUP from the anti-Mas/CDC half.

[Nanwe]

Mas is speaking live atm.

[Nanwe]

The agreement. Holy . Baixada de pantalons.

[Nanwe]

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Basically, the CUP agrees to support Puigdemont, to assume that all the problems of the last 3 months are their fault, for 2 of their MPs to join JxS and to purge their parliamentary group of anti-Mas deputies (so at least 4 or 5 out of 10) in exchange for Mas' resignation. Oh! And to never ever not support the current Government.

All meanwhile Mas might make a return after a few months, since he's going to focus on 'rebuilding' Convergencia.

[Nanwe]

Just a friendly reminder that this is the political class 50% of Catalonia want instead of the one in Madrid.

Also, doesn't the CUP have to pass this agreement through their party? I mean why even bother going to consult your party and blocking the whole process when you agree to do this deal that cripples your party? To get rid of one individual? Oh wait, let me guess, because they will be annihilated in any near future election anyway, so they might as well gamble on power and potential unilateral independence?

This is the glorious Catalan independence we've all been waiting for then.


How will the CUP rebels react?

Technically, 47%

But we don't know if they will react or not. But for a party where these decisions ought to be taken by an assembly, it all seems very un-assembly-like. I'm just utterly amazed about the agreement, it's the political version of, idk, ser puta y poner la cama?


In any case, what's glorious are the comments Mas made during the press conference such as "urnas no le dieron ha tenido que "corregirse" en negociación" (what the ballot box did not give has been corrected in the negotiation", or that the CUP "will be in the Parlament to do opposition because the Govern can not lose votes [in passing laws]"

[Nanwe]

But if what you said is true, and there is no incentive for the nationalist parties to go into new elections, then it makes more sense, particularly as the CUP are bordering on implosion.

Oh yes, there was absolutely no incentive. It does make sense, for JxS, for such a militantly anti-everything party as the CUP (they make Podemos look like a bunch of moderate centrists) that they have agreed to put electoral calculation over ideology (a first for them!) and to agree to become a satellite of the party of the Catalan bourgeoisie that CDC is, is inconceivable.

[Nanwe]

Oh, and apparently there has been some controversy about a speech Puigdemont gave in 2013 where he pledged to "expel the invaders from Catalonia, as they were in Belgium (? - I can only guess this is some kind of reference to Flanders)

I'm guessing he meant to refer to the Netherlands.

He could also be referring the expulsion of francophones from Leuven.

Unlikely, he quoted a poet who died in 1939, more likely he's referring to the Belgian revolution of 1830, imho.

[Nanwe]

Anyhow, I've been working on an electoral model for Spain, based on my own ideas (smaller/larger constituencies, no rural over-representation, compensatory seats on top, unblocked lists).




PP (centre-right): 120 (28.72)
PSOE (centre-left): 92 (22.01)
Podemos (left-wing): 87 (20.47)
Ciudadanos (centre): 58 (13.93)
Unidad Popular (far-left): 15 (3.67)
Democràcia i Llibertat (Catalan centre-right): 10 (2.25)
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (Catalan centre-left): 9 (2.39)
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea-Partido Nacionalista Vasco (Basque centre): 6 (1.20)
EH Bildu (Basque left-wing). 2 (0.87)
Coalición Canaria (Canary Islands regionalists): 1 (0.33)

Most likely result is PSOE+Podemos+IU coalition with external support in the investiture from the PNV (and perhaps CC), since they add up to 194 seats against (and let's say C's supports the PP in this scenario), the sum o PP and C's which is 178.

[Nanwe]

Why are they not "allowed" to create several different groups for the several different initiatives they ran with, if they have the numbers ? Which authority is denying them this right ?

Well it's not a right. And the rulebook of the Congress.

There's a considerable degree of unfairness about it, becaue by splitting up, Podemos would receive as much public money as the PP (which has double the amount of deputies) and of speaking times. Furthermore, there's no precedent for it, as the PSOE had a similar deal with the PSC in Catalonia and the PSC still sat in the PSOE group.

[Nanwe]

So Puigdemont just ruled out an UDI because the pro-independence forces only got 48% of the votes in September, yet the procés goes on. Apparently because Catalans ought to decide once the Parlament has drafted a constitution or something lol. I really don't get them.

[Nanwe]

From Invymark:

Would you be in favour or against of permitting a referendum about Catalan independence?

In favour: 38.8%
Against: 57.6%
Doesn't know: 3.6%

Only Catalonia:

In favour: 68.2%
Against: 27.1%
Doesn't know: 4.7%

Party breakdown:

PP: 8.8% for, 90.6% against
PSOE: 34.1% for, 63.5% against
C's: 13.2% for, 83.7% against
Podemos: 78.5% for, 18% against

Would you be for or against a constitutional reform about changing the Spanish territorial model?

For: 58.4%
Against: 35.3%
Doesn't know: 6.3%

Polling in Galicia and Euskadi:

Galicia:

PPdG: 37% (32, -9)
En Marea: 25% (20, +11)
PSdG: 21% (17, -1)
C's: 9% (6, +6)

Euskadi:

EAJ-PNV: 30% (22-23, -4,5)
Podemos: 25% (21-22, +21,22)
EH Bildu: 19% (13-14, -7,8)
PSE-EE: 12.8% (10, -6)
PP: 8.3% (6, -4)
IU-LV: 3% (0-1, =, +1)

[Nanwe]

Celeste-Tel (Jan 19)

PP 30.2% (128-130), Podemos 22.1% (68-73), PSOE 21.9% (87-90), C's 12.6% (33-35), IU-UP 3.3% (2), Others 10% (24-26)

Methodology:

1100 phone interviews, during the first 10 days of 2016.

[Nanwe]

So have the parties reached a deal about general government yet? I haven't been following lately

No. This week, the King has convoked the parties (note: the parties, not the groups) so that they may give him their opinion on the situation and on whom to appoint as formateur. There is nod deadline for when he can propose one, but it is likely he will held a second round of talks next week  or so before appointing the first formateur.

Spain has no tradition in this regard, since traditionally this role of the King was symbolic, now it is not so we'll see what he proposes. Since there are no limits to whom he could appoint, the King may propose anyone, independent of partisan, MP, senator or neither.

[Nanwe]

ERC didn't get a group?

I guess they'll get a group later. ERC, Bildu and IU requested a joint group that was rejected.

On paper, IU and Compromís could reach a deal in order to create another group.

Is there enough time, though? The time for making groups is closed, isn't it? I think the only possible thing now is for the deputies to move to already-existing groups.

It is nice to see Podemos facing the realities of parliamentary life. I was getting tired of the utopian 'assaulting the skies' rhetoric, truth be told.

[Nanwe]

You can have an agreement with Podemos as the PSOE without giving in to the referendum, after all, there are more priority social issues to deal with (and honestly Podemos beyond Catalonia probably care more about it than En Comú) and even then, just say, "well, look, its impossible because the PP would block in the Senate" and blah. Red lines are to be crossed.