Spanish elections and politics

[jaichind]

Vote share projections seems to be

PP           28.5%
Podemos  25.6%
PSOE       22.0%
C             11.8%

PP and PSOE same as 2015, C down around 2% and Podemos up around 1.2%

[jaichind]

Exit poll graphic from RTVE

[jaichind]

GAD3 exit poll image graphic

[jaichind]

I most likely do not know what I am talking about.  But based on the turnout patterns I feel the exit poll most likely overestimates Podemos and underestimates PP and PSOE.    I guess we will see.

[jaichind]

A progressive bloc led by Unidos Podemos may be in a position to govern according to the result of exit poll, Alberto Garzon, leader of United Left, says in televised statement.

[jaichind]

GAD3 exit poll with vote shares



PP           30.4%
Podemos  24.8%
PSOE       21.8%
C             13.2%

Here they have PP up 1.7%, Podemos  up 0.4%, PSOE down 0.2%, C down 0.7%

[jaichind]

Do they start counting at 8PM or hold off counting until 9PM?  If the former we should see a lot of the results come in very soon.

[jaichind]

A progressive bloc led by Unidos Podemos may be in a position to govern according to the result of exit poll, Alberto Garzon, leader of United Left, says in televised statement.

On these results it would be an extremely weak government, that would pretty much have to give Catalans their referendum (remember, the third largest leftist group is ERC).

UP and PSOE add between 171 and 175 seats, according to GAD3. With that result, ERC would not be necessary, because the hypothetical coalition could rely on PNV.

I thought PNV was more center-right.  Would that work with them propping up a left bloc government.

[jaichind]

Some results in

PP           30.92%
PSOE       24.08%
Podomos  20.61% (I think I added them up correctly)
C              9.24%

[jaichind]

I don't know how representative these are of Spain as a whole, but looks something like massive underperformance for the new parties and a large overperformance for the old (especially PSOE). PSOE+UP is 158, PP+C's is 152. If it stays this way, I think a third election could become inevitable.

Its very early, not clear what the trend is yet.

[jaichind]

11% in

PP           30.59%
PSOE       24.11%
Podomos  20.90%  
C              9.49%

[jaichind]

Is the Senate up for election as well or just the Lower House ?

[jaichind]

16% in

PP           30.56%
PSOE       24.26%
Podomos  21.11%  
C             10.05%

[jaichind]

26% in

PP           30.64%
PSOE       24.17%
Podomos  21.34% 
C             10.72%

[jaichind]

30% in

PP           30.74%
PSOE       24.17%
Podomos  21.33% 
C             10.93%

Podomos not gaining ground fast enough. 

[jaichind]

Do we know where those results are coming from? If they're representative, this looks like a major failure for Podemos.

You can see results by region, province or municipality in the official site. The count in smaller municiplaties usually goes fast, possibly urban areas will come later. I would wait until the count reaches 50%.

Maybe it's better following results in a media outlet. At least they make the addition of the different Podemos lists. I'll link El País:

http://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/2016/generales/congreso/

At least the official site was nice enough to colorize all the Podemos lists in purple. 

[jaichind]

36% in

PP           30.93%       134
PSOE       24.11%        95
Podomos  21.36%        69 
C             11.24%        27

[jaichind]

Not that much results from Madrid yet but whatever results are in there PSOE is getting a swing from Podomos and C.  This could be decisive if this is indicative of how urban areas might be going.

[jaichind]

44% in

PP           31.17%       132
PSOE       24.02%        96
Podomos  21.41%        70 
C             11.52%        27

PP and PSOE over-performing exit polls

[jaichind]

47% in

PP           31.32%       134
PSOE       23.96%        94
Podomos  21.39%        69  
C             11.63%        28

[jaichind]

Podemos vote share I suspect will go down from here.  All the places where Podemos are in the top two parties have a much higher share of the vote counted than Spain as a whole.  Podemos has to hope the Madrid count and other urban areas turn around soon in their favor.

[jaichind]

47% in
PSOE       23.96%        94
Podomos  21.39%        69 

is it just me or is that a huge seat disparity for two parties so close together in the popular vote?

Well, if Podomos has all their votes concentrated in certain parts of the country then this result makes a lot of sense.  This is not a pure PR system.

[jaichind]

55% in

PP           31.54%       134
PSOE       23.78%        92
Podomos  21.40%        70 
C             11.87%        29

C making up ground mostly at expense of PSOE.

[jaichind]

61% in

PP           31.73%       135
PSOE       23.65%        90
Podomos  21.38%        71  
C             12,07%        29

I think seat count will not be far off from this.  Only Madrid is sort of changeable at this stage in terms of seat distribution.  

[jaichind]

Starting to look like when all the dust settles the result will be almost identical to last winter except that PP gained 10 or so seats from Cs...Spain remains ungovernable

I am not sure I agree.  PP's gains in terms of vote count and seats gives it more political chips to go for a PP government with support from C and PSOE from the outside.  Question now is is that with or without Rajoy who can legitimately claim that he can and should continue.