Spanish elections and politics

[Former President tack50]

Well, the budget was presented the other day to Brussels and presented by the government. The big changes in the budget are:

Increasing minimum wage to 900€

Increasing income tax for those earning over 130 000€

Reforming the law of urban rents, to protect tenants, to allow municipalities to put price controls in bad areas and increasing the budget of the national housing plan by 200 million €

Raising the smallest pensions by 3% in 2019 and making pensions rise according to inflation from now on

Rasing the minimum corporate tax to 15%, taxing dividends and profits (currently they are 100% tax free, now they'll only be 95% tax free), introducing a financial transactions tax of 0.2%



Also, we got our first poll for Andalucía after the election was called

Aurea Project for esdiario.com

PSOE: 32.8% (37-40)
PP: 23.6% (29-32)
Cs: 18.5% (20-22)
AA: 19.0% (19-22)

PACMA: 2.3% (0)
Vox: 1.0% (0)

[Former President tack50]

Well, Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias has visited ERC leader Oriol Junqueras in prison, to try and unlock the budget a bit. He has also spoken over the phone with PDECat leader Carles Puigdemont. The situation seems to be the same, with ERC and PDECat claiming there won't be a budget without the so-called political prisoners being freed, while the government claims they can't do that as the judicial branch is independent from the executive branch.

He will also meet with Basque premier Iñigo Urkullu soon.

IMO the budget will pass but it all depends on the Catalan secessionists (I don't expect PNV to put much of a fight). Depending on the time of day and who you are asking they adopt either a hardline or a more concilliatory approach.

Keep in mind that the budget only needs a simple majority, so at least one of ERC and PDECat could abstain instead of outright voting in favour (depending also on what Bildu and CC do of course)


In polling news, we also got one more poll for the Andalusian regional election due for early December

NC Report for La Razón (Andalusian regionals; 109 seats, 55 for a majority)

PSOE: 36.6% (45)
PP: 23.4% (28)
AA: 18.6% (22)
Cs: 14.0% (14)

IMOP Insights for El Confidencial (Andalusian regionals)

PSOE: 29.8%
Cs: 22.3%
AA: 21.7%
PP: 20.5%

So yeah, Andalucia remains Safe PSOE; with the only questions being what happens with the other 3 (who comes in 2nd, 3rd and 4th and the margins) and whether PSOE will reach a deal with AA or with Cs. I think the former is easier now because of the national environment, but keep in mind the Andalusian Podemos branch is one of the more hostile ones to PSOE, while the Andalusian PSOE branch is one of the most conservative ones.

We also got some national polling over the last few weeks, including one of those "big if true" kind of polls

Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es

PSOE: 27.7% (109-112)
PP: 26.3% (101-104)
Cs: 19.3% (60-62)
UP: 17.4% (47-51)
Vox: 1.0% (0)
PACMA: 0.8% (0)

ERC: 3.0% (11-12)
PDECat: 1.7% (6)
PNV: 1.1% (5)
EH Bildu: 0.8% (2)
CC: 0.3% (1)

Simple Lógica

PSOE: 25.2%
PP: 23.8%
Cs: 21.6%
UP: 17.3%

NC Report for La Razón

PSOE: 26.8% (105-107)
PP: 26.7% (107-109)
Cs: 19.5% (62-65)
UP: 16.8% (45-48)
Vox: 1.9% (1)

ERC: 3.0% (11-12)
PDECat: 1.4% (5-6)
PNV: 1.1% (5-6)
EH Bildu: 0.7% (2-3)
CC: 0.3% (1)

Metroscopia

PSOE: 25.2%
PP: 22.6%
Cs: 19.2%
UP: 17.7%
Vox: 5.1%!

Others: 10.2%

The Metroscopia poll is a big outlier, but if true it would mean that Vox would actually get around half a dozen seats, and their own parliamentary group! (instead of going to the mixed group alongside Bildu and CC)

A general election remains a tossup, but PSOE's lead has narrowed down since the no confidence vote.

[Former President tack50]

Well, Podemos proposed legalizing marihuana right after Canada did it, but their proposal ended up just being that, a proposal. Interestingly Cs also supports marihuana legalization while PP and PSOE oppose it.

Still, there was a poll made on the topic which is quite interesting:



Honestly, I'm surprised that no wins, I'd have thought that legalization would win. Also, PSOE supporters are almost equally split, and even more suprisingly, Cs supporters lean quite heavily towards no even though their party supports it!

[Former President tack50]

So, basically Convergencia's newest outfit, after DiL; PDECat and JxCat? Or will this be different somehow?

[Former President tack50]

Apparently the full list of parties that will run in the Andalusian election is out. However this is just a preliminary list, many of them will eventually be discarded. Still, the parties and coalitions that have at least registered to run are:

Running in all 8 provinces

Partido Socialista Obrero Español. (PSOE-A)
Partido Popular.  (PP-A)
Coalición Adelante Andalucía (Podemos-Izquierda Unida-Primavera Andaluza-Izquierda Andalucista)
Ciudadanos Partido de la Ciudadanía. (Cs)

Vox.
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal. (PACMA)
Coalición Equo Verdes-Iniciativa Andalucía.
Unión Progreso y Democracia. (UPyD)
Andalucía por el Si. (AxSí)
Partido Comunista del Pueblo Andaluz. (PCPA)

Running only in certain provinces

Coalición Recortes Cero-Por un Mundo más Justo-Grupo Verde.
Coalición Conecta Andalucía (Partido Agora de Andalucía-Partido Integro de Centro Democrático).
Coalición Unidos por la Democracia (Unidos Si-Democracia Efectiva)
Coalición Socialistas por el Cambio 15M (Cambiar si se puede-Podemos 15M).
Convergencia Andaluza.
Nación Andaluza. (NA)
Ciudadanos Libres Unidos.
Ciudadanos Libres Unidos-Linares.
Partido Republicano Independiente Solidario Andaluz. (Partido RISA)
Alternativa Republicana. (ALTER)
Escaño en Blanco.
Izquierda Anticapitalista Revolucionaria. (IZAR)
Partido Comunista de los Pueblos de España.
Partido Comunista Obrero Español.
Partido Comunista de los Trabajadores y las Trabajadoras de España
Soluciona.
Respeto.
Falange Española de las Jons.
Independientes de Huelva (IxH)


The first block (in colour) are the ones that will almost certainly get seats. The underlined ones are the ones that won't get seats but have a chance of breaking 1%. Everyone else won't even break 1%

Of the minor lists running in all 8 provinces, the most interesting ones are Vox and PACMA obviously because of the national implications.

AxSí (and the other minor Andalusian nationalist lists) might also be interesting to watch just to see how dead Andalusian nationalism is. AxSí is the spiritual successor to the old Andalusian Party (PA) dissolved in 2016. Same with UPyD, it might be interesting to see just how dead are they.

As for the extremely small lists running only in certain provinces, I don't think any of them is all that interesting tbh.

If you care about minor parties, there's an interesting split between PCPE and PCPA, both far left tankie style communists and there's been a split in the national party (they can't agree on a party leader) so apparently they are running 2 different parties (an achievement for a party that gets 0.1% of the vote).

Other than that there are several communist parties, several nationalist parties (which I did mention could be interesting), several far right parties, and a couple parties I know nothing about

[Former President tack50]

Honestly looking them up on the internet it seems there's almost no information about them. The only site where they were described claimed that it's actually a PSOE splinter and a coalition between 2 parties: Cambiar Si Se Puede and Podemos15M (which apparently is not the same as regular Podemos)

In any case, super tiny parties can get real confusing, real fast; I wouldn't read much (if anything) into them.

In local elections they can be fun to read into but they never have real implications for the most part.

Plus, keep in mind that many of these will actually be rejected for one reason or another. When I did this for the Catalan regional election of the 10 or so tiny parties that ran only like 3 were actually on the ballot.

Granted that election was under unusual circumstances but I'd still expect around half of those lists to not be on the ballot. Especially the weirder ones that appeared out of thin air and that I know nothing about.

[Former President tack50]

I'm surprised UPyD is still kicking around. Why voting for them when C's exist?

No real reason honestly. I guess people who are pro Spanish union but more progressive and leftist than Cs? (they've moved to the right in recient times)

UPyD is just in zombie form anyways though, it will eventually dissolve slowly into oblivion, kind of like CDS back on the day. UPyD's last chance (and an incredibly remote one at that) is the 2019 EU election but they almost certainly won't get a chance.

[Former President tack50]

Yeah AxSí, even if it tries to borrow from Junts x Si in Catalonia, is actually a nationalist but unionist party, much like the old PA; or like CC in the Canary Islands; nothing like ERC and PDECat.

NA is the true secessionsist party.

[Former President tack50]

Today the proposed punishments for the Catalan secessionist leaders have been published, and there's a split between the Solicitor General's Office (which directly responds to the Spanish government) and the Attorney General's office (which is independent from the Sánchez government). No idea if this kind of split is common or not, but it was to be somewhat expected

The proposed punishments from each judicial organization are:

Attorney General (generally harsher, it does accuse them of rebellion)

Oriol Junqueras (Deputy premier and regional minister of Economics): Head of Rebellion and public fund misuse. 25 years in prison and another 25 years of political inhabilitation (where he can't have any elected office)

Jordi Sánchez (leader of the secessionist organization ANC): Head of Rebellion. 17 years in prison and 17 years of inhabilitation

Jordi Cuixart (leader of the secessionsit organization Ómnium): Head of Rebellion. 17 years in prison and 17 years barred from public office

Carme Forcadell (president of the catalan parliament): Head of Rebellion. 17 years in prison and 17 years barred from public office

Jordi Turull (speaker of the Catalan government): Rebellion and public fund misuse. 16 years in prison and 16 years barred from public office

Raul Romeva (regional minister of foreign affairs): Rebellion and public fund misuse. 16 years in prison and 16 years barred from public office

Joaquim Forn (regional minister of the interior): Rebellion and public fund misuse. 16 years in prison and 16 years barred from public office

Josep Rull (regional minister of territory and sustainability): Rebellion and public fund misuse. 16 years in prison and 16 years barred from public office

Dolors Bassa (regional minister of labour, social affairs and family): Rebellion and public fund misuse. 16 years in prison and 16 years barred from public office

Carles Mundo (regional minister of justice): Public fund misuse and disobedience. 7 years in prison, 16 years barred from public office and a 10 month fine.

Meritchell Borrás (regional minister of government, public administrations and housing). Public fund misuse and disobedience. 7 years in prison, 16 years barred from public office and 10 month fine

Santiago Vila (regional minster of business, resigned shortly before the UDI). Public fund misuse and disobedience. 7 years in prison, 16 years barred from public office and 10 month fine

6 other politicians were charged with disobedience and punished with a 10 month fine and 1 year and 8 months barred from public office

Solicitor General's office (generally more lenient, the ones accused of rebellion are accused of sedition instead)

Oriol Junqueras: 12 years in prison

Carme Forcadell: 10 years in prison

Jordi Cuixart and Jordi Sánchez: 8 years in prison

Jordi Turull, Raul Romeva, Joaquim Forn, Josep Rull, Dolors Bassa: 11 and a half years in prison

Carles Mundo, Meritxell Borras, Santiago Vila: Still 7 years in prison, but only 7 more years barred from public office

For the other 6 processed people for only disobedience, the punishment is still the same except for Mireia Boya (speaker of CUP in the catalan parliament) and Joan Jusep Nuet (member of the parliament table, who decides schedules and when and what to vote, appointed by Podemos), who are only charged with 8 months barred from public office.

[Former President tack50]

I personally hope the general election doesn't take place at the same time as the EU/local elections.

A mega-election with literally everything possible on the ballot seems like a bad idea to me and will lead to "coattails" instead of each position being considered individually.

I'd personally favour either an election in March (if the budget fails) or in Autumn 2019 (if the budget somehow succeeds)

But yeah, the climate doesn't seem leading to agreements. I can see Sánchez getting Podemos and PNV quite easilly. Maybe Bildu/CC as well but they aren't decisive. However the decisive votes of ERC and PDECat seem hard to get.

[Former President tack50]

Yep, a PP-Cs majority (or worse, a PP-Cs minority depending on Vox) is probably the worst case scenario for secessionists unless they plan on accelarationism, or like Rajoy said: "The better for you the worse, and the worse for you, the better".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glMm5w7K4Yg

That was a gaffe back on the day but it actually sums up the Spanish right and the Catalan secessionists quite nicely

Speaking of Rajoy, I remember reading an article in El Mundo where the people who actually activated and dealt with article 155 (the Rajoy cabinet and people close to him) are disappointed about the parties policies in Catalonia.

Whereas Rajoy hesitated a lot on applying article 155, and applied it only as a last resort and only after thinking about it for a long time and negotiating a broad consensus, nowadays Casado's PP and Cs want to activate it for no reason adding fuel to the fire while PSOE is way too lenient on Catalonia.

Here's the article:

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2018/10/28/5bd4c007e5fdea4e178b45db.html

[Former President tack50]

Well we were a bit overdue for polls so here we have 3 new ones:

IBES for Balearic Islands regional elections



Yeah, basically confirms that the Balearic Islands regional election is a tossup, and that it will most likely depend on PI (centre-right nationalists) to either put PP back in power or keep premier Armengol for 4 more years.

Worth noting that UM (PI's spiritual predecessor) supported both PSOE-left nationalist governments in the 00s as well as PP governments in the 80s and 90s.

Also worth noting that the last time a Balearic Islands government was reelected was all the way in 1995; since then no premier has served more than a single consecutive term

Celeste Tel-Eldiario.es for Andalusian regional elections



Stil safe PSOE. A terrible poll for Cs though, who barely goes up from 2015, and a really good one for PSOE and PP, to the point where PSOE actually gains in the popular vote!

GESOP-El Periódico de Catalunya for general elections



2nd poll in a row that shows Vox around 4%. Maybe their rise is real? Worth noting that if they get 5 seats and 5% of the vote they gain the right to their own parliamentary group instead of going to the mixed group, which grants them longer parliamentary speeches, and the like*

For the rest, good result for PSOE (GESOP is quite PSOE leaning though) and for Cs, who narrowly edge out PP

Honestly if these kinds of results with Vox way up are real it makes me wonder how large they would be if PP had gone with the more moderate Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría instead of the further right Casado as party leader. Would we be speaking of them breaking 7%?

^{*Keep in mind that if Vox falls narrowly short (say 4 seats and 4.x% of the vote), it's far from uncommon for parliamentary groups to agree to give them a group for them by bending the rules. A good example is UPyD in 2011 who narrowly fell short of the 5% required for a parliamentary group, but got one anyways. On the other hand, if the people in charge of parliament are feeling strict they can also not bend the rules (like Amaiur 2011 or PDECat 2016, neither of whom got a parliamentary group even if they also fell barely short)}

[Former President tack50]

The mortgage tax saga has finally ended.

Since I don't think anyone has spoken about it, basically it goes like this:

First, a Spanish Supreme Court ruling claimed that banks would be responsible to pay a mortgage related tax, and that ruling would start applying with effect in all of Spain and probably retroactively. However the next day the Supreme court suspended the ruling to re-evaluate it, in something unprecedented. Yesterday, the Supreme Court met and decided that the customers would now be the ones responsible for paying the tax and not banks. Finally, today the Spanish government announced a law-decree changing the mortgage law to overturn that ruling

https://elpais.com/economia/2018/11/08/actualidad/1541679667_089777.html

This certainly doesn't help make Spanish courts more believable and harms their reputation quite a bit.

Also, a plan to murder PM Pedro Sánchez by a lone wolf was discovered today. I don't think the murder would have been successful at all but still worth noting that maybe polarization has consequences.

If murdered, Pedro Sánchez would become the first murdered PM since PM Carrero Blanco in 1973 (during the last few years of the dictatorship). Worth noting that Aznar had a failed assassination attempt by ETA in 1995 though he was not the PM at the time

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2018/11/08/catalunya/1541663459_738366.html

[Former President tack50]

There hasn't been much polling for the Andalusian election even though it's little more than 2 weeks away. Here's the latest poll:

Sociométrica-El Español



The most surprising fact is that Vox gets a chance of getting a seat, even though Andalucia isn't exactly the best place for them! If they are really at 4% and get seats in Andalucia, that means they are actually higher than that nationally. Then again Sociométrica is arguably the most Vox-friendly (and Cs friendly) pollster

Also, good poll for the right, they get 52 seats, only short by 3 of a majority.

[Former President tack50]

There hasn't been much polling for the Andalusian election even though it's little more than 2 weeks away. Here's the latest poll:

Sociométrica-El Español



The most surprising fact is that Vox gets a chance of getting a seat, even though Andalucia isn't exactly the best place for them! If they are really at 4% and get seats in Andalucia, that means they are actually higher than that nationally. Then again Sociométrica is arguably the most Vox-friendly (and Cs friendly) pollster

Also, good poll for the right, they get 52 seats, only short by 3 of a majority.

What caused PSOE and Podemos’s decline in Andalusia since 2015?

Well, I imagine this is a right leaning poll, but if confirmed, for PSOE it would basically be the corruption scandals (particularly the ERE case), fatigue (if PSOE wins, they will have officially been in charge longer than Franco!) and the fact that Susana Díaz isn't really all that popular (I imagine she lost a lot of points when she ran against Sánchez and lost)

For Podemos, I guess it's just extrapolating from their national trend, maybe combined with the fact that Podemos-IU coalitions rarely get all the votes they get when running separately

[Former President tack50]

Well, today the election campaign for the Andalusian elections started. Here are campaign posters and slogans from the 4 main parties:

PSOE: More Andalucia



PP: Warranty for change



AA: Andalucia Forward



Cs: Now yes, Ciudadanos



Here are the last few polls as well:

SW Demoscopia-Publicaciones del Sur for Andalusian regional elections



The most surprising thing about this one is that it actually gives not just Vox seats, but also AxSí!

CIS for Andalusian regional elections



This one interestingly gives Vox 1 seat, for Almería (with a whopping 7% there!) instead of the usual 0-2 bracket (which implies seats for Sevilla and Málaga).

Overall, while the overall scenario hasn't changed, most polls are now showing a 3 way tie for second. The nightmare scenario for PP I imagine would be to come 4th and with Vox entering parliament. If that happens, there's a real chance of PP going the way of UCD in the early 80s (ironically, PP definitively "killed" UCD at the 1982 Andalusian election, when they got 2nd and UCD 3rd)

We also got several general election polls, generally showing PSOE down a bit, Cs up a bit, PP down a lot and Podemos stagnant

Celeste Tel-Eldiario.es for general elections



NC Report-La Razón for general elections



Invymark-La Sexta for general elections



Simple Lógica for general elections

[Former President tack50]

Also, yet another scandal on Sánchez's cabinet. This time affecting economy minister Nadia Calviño, who had a similar scandal to the one Pedro Duque (minister of science and universities) had, where she bought a house through a fake business to pay less taxes.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20181116/452969685434/nadia-calvino-casa-sociedad-desvinculada.html

I'm now wondering how many scandals is this cabinet going to get. Like looking at the initial cabinet composition, there are now 6 ministers who had scandals, 3 for avoiding taxes (Máxim Huerta, Pedro Duque, now Nadia Calviño), 1 for faking her master's degree (Carmen Montón), 1 involved in Villarejo's recordings (Dolores Delgado) and 1 who had a somewhat controversial involvement in the bankrupcy of Abengoa (Josep Borrell, though that scandal was previous to his involvement in the Sánchez cabinet)

[Former President tack50]

The final polling average before the election seems like it will end up mostly like this

PSOE: 35%
PP: 23%
AA: 20%
Cs: 16%
Vox: 4%

Seems like Cs has collapsed in the final stretch. Maybe they were being overpolled like in 2015? PP seems like it will go down a lot compared to 2015 but still come in 2nd, though there's a non negligible (but small) chance that AA comes in 2nd.

As for Vox, it's a tossup if they'll enter or not. In any case, 4% in Andalucia would mean something like 4.5% nationally at the very least, so assuming they don't collapse spectacularly after failing to enter (kind of like the 2014 EU election for them I guess) they will certainly get around 2 MEPs next year and UPyD-like numbers in the general election (4.5-5%; 4-5 seats)

Looking at the rest of the information, on Vox voters, I'd certainly not call everyone who wants to repeal the Gender Violence law of 2005 "male chovinists". There are legitimate reaons to want reform of that law, if I understand correctly it strips men of due process and "innocent until proven guilty" under certain circumstances (remember Cs originally wanted to repeal it as well)

Then again, that law was surprisingly passed unanimously, 332-0, and most parliamentary resolutions regarding "gender violence" pass unanimously so I imagine Vox will be the odd one out here.

Cs' vote has always been very unstable so it's no wonder former Cs voters are now defecting to Vox (particularly if they initially left PP based on the Catalonia issue, when Cs got a massive bump). The more interesting thing is that it's taking a non insignificant amount of left wing voters. I imagine most of those are populist Podemos voters. However on the long run it might be a greater threat to PSOE, by taking away from their base in rural Andalucia/Extramadura or the Asturias/Leon former coal fields (taken to the extreme, Asturias becomes Spain's West Virginia)

The remaining maps aren't very surprising, Andalucia is quite polarized on economic class, so it's no wonder that poorer, more unemployed areas lean left while more economically developed areas lean right.

In particular, I think the few urban municipalities that have always voted PSOE (like Dos Hermanas or Alcalá de Guadaira, just south of Sevilla) are also some of the poorest municipalities not just in Andalucia, but in all of Spain.

[Former President tack50]

Also related to the Andalusian election, here's an interesting Nate Silver-like statistical analysis of polls, with the seat chances of each party:



And here it is by coalition:



http://1datomas.com/interactivos/elecciones-andaluzas-2d/

They also have a different polling average

PSOE: 33%
PP: 22%
AA: 20%
Cs: 17%
Vox: 4%
Others: 4%

Another simulation by Kiko Llaneras seems a bit more benevolent for the right, giving PP+Cs roughly a 5% of getting a majority (which I imagine could increase very slighly with Vox)

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/23/actualidad/1542972340_447656.html

[Former President tack50]

I wonder if the far right VOX will get 10% in Andalusia this Sunday ...

They are definitely rising fast in the polls and could establish a launching pod for the EU elections and a national parliament presence.

There's no way Vox reaches double digits in Andalucia. 8% is their ceiling for now and that's generous. They are indeed rising fast and will almost certainly get national and EU presence.

In fact for the 2019 regional elections I could see them getting seats in all regions except Castille-La Mancha (extremely high threshold) and the Canary Islands (4% threshold now, but Vox is a horrible fit for the islands)

[Former President tack50]

My prediction:

PSOE: 35%
PP: 22%
AA: 18%
Cs: 16%
Vox: 5%

Others: 4%

Sadly, Spain will join the rest of Europe in having a far right party. I was happy when we were one of the few remaining stronholds against that, now the title of "largest EU country without a far right party in parliament" will go to Romania

[Former President tack50]

My prediction:

PSOE: 35%
PP: 22%
AA: 18%
Cs: 16%
Vox: 5%

Others: 4%

Sadly, Spain will join the rest of Europe in having a far right party. I was happy when we were one of the few remaining stronholds against that, now the title of "largest EU country without a far right party in parliament" will go to Romania

Everything is due to OKUPA Sanchez

Actually, there were polls with Rajoy as PM giving Vox 1 seat. Not as many of course, but the first poll with Vox getting seats happened right after the Catalonia UDI in November 2018 (Sociométrica-El Español). Sánchez becoming PM might have helped as well, but I'd certainly pick Catalonia as the spark that lit the fire

Plus, that theory actually doesn't make much sense. If you are a conservative angry at Sánchez, doesn't it make more sense to vote tactically for PP or Cs?

[Former President tack50]

30% turnout in Andalucia at 14:00. This is down from 34% turnout in 2015. In theory low turnout should help PP and especially PSOE, to the detriment of AA and Cs.

[Former President tack50]

Worth noting that while we won't get a proper exit poll, we will get a regular poll done during the final few days, done by GAD3 for ABC.

This is similar to the situation in the 2017 Catalan election, where there was no proper exit poll, but there was a regular poll done by La Vanguardia.

Also, worth noting that the lower turnout seems concentrated in rural areas, which means that it's PSOE voters the ones that aren't going out to vote. According to some that may be because olives are being picked up around this time of year, which means rural PSOE voters are at work now. It might also mean that the PSOE machines will get them to vote later.

However, if this stays the same at the next turnout reports, then PSOE should start being worried. They won't lose government anyways but it's certainly a bad sign.

[Former President tack50]

Wow, Vox above even IU 2015 numbers!

I always thought their ceiling would be becoming "Right wing IU". I guess not, 10% in Andalucia means around 11-12% nationally (extrapolating from their EU result in 2014, so not 100% accurate), almost what Cs currently has