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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 370577 times)
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #25 on: March 27, 2017, 01:22:42 PM »

The CUP, Candidatura de Unidad Popular, a far-left anti capitalist party, tried to occupy the headquarters of the PP Catalonia in Barcelona. The youth wing of the party, barricaded themselves in front of the PP headquarters and tried to get in. The goal of the protest was to demand a referendum of Catalonia Independence.

The spokesperson of the party and lead figure in the party, Anna Gabriel, went to the scene to support the protest.



Regardless of their positions, these kind of acts are shameful. Sad
Why are you expecting anti- capitalists to play by the ridiculous notions of what constitutes political activity in a capitalist society?
Not to mention, if Spain would just allow a referendum, none of this would be happening.
The problem is that the constitution bars any attempt that threatens the territorial union of Spain. To change that, i believe all autonomous regions must say yes to the constitutional change and that's not going to happen. It's a difficult situation to be resolved.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #26 on: March 27, 2017, 03:00:46 PM »

Thanks for the correction, tack50 Smiley

I wrote that about the autonomies because i recall reading an article that said Andalucia or Extremadura would never accept Catalonia independence because of their economic disadvantage from the rest of Spain. But i clearly misinterpreted.

Basically, there's no simple solution to this. Although i'm quite convinced that if such referendum was held, the no to independence would win. But that's just my hunch.


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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #27 on: March 30, 2017, 01:23:29 PM »

Apparently things are slowly but surely progressing in Murcia. Maybe they'll get rid of the allegedly corrupt PP governor there after all?

Then again if they go to new elections either it's a hung parliament and there's another PP+Cs government, even if the governor might be judged for corruption, or it's a PP absolute majority (Murcia is very conservative, PP came within 1 seat of an overall majority)

A PSOE+Cs+Podemos government wouldn't last more than 10 minutes considering how much Cs and Podemos hate each other, and there's no way PSOE+Podemos gets a majority in Murcia
Indeed, the last poll for Murcia, from earlier this month, shows the PP gaining more than C's and PSOE and Podemos getting a lower result than in 2011:

39.1% PP
22.9% PSOE
12.9% C's
12.0% Podemos
 3.6% IU

The poll was made in the beginning of this scandal. Giving a big margin of error, due to Spain's not so accurate polls, could we be seeing parts of the electorate swinging to the PP because they want a more stable government, even thought the electorate knows they are sleaze?
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #28 on: May 09, 2017, 07:38:35 AM »

2 new polls:

CIS


Invymark/laSexta
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #29 on: May 21, 2017, 02:48:50 PM »

Diaz has congratulated Pedro Smiley

What are the odds of a new election? I know Sanchez wants a No confidence motion against Rajoy but will the other deputies follow him?
Another election? What for? Polls say the results wouldn't be much different from the June 2016 election. The election of Sanchéz is, my opinion, a huge mistake. He already lost, badly, the 2015 and 2016 election and suggesting a PSOE approach to Podemos is the wrong way to go. I believe the PSOE leadership fight is far from over. The establishment will never accept well Sanchéz and there will be constant battles between both sides.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #30 on: May 21, 2017, 05:00:04 PM »
« Edited: May 21, 2017, 05:02:36 PM by Mike88 »

Diaz has congratulated Pedro Smiley

What are the odds of a new election? I know Sanchez wants a No confidence motion against Rajoy but will the other deputies follow him?
Another election? What for? Polls say the results wouldn't be much different from the June 2016 election. The election of Sanchéz is, my opinion, a huge mistake. He already lost, badly, the 2015 and 2016 election and suggesting a PSOE approach to Podemos is the wrong way to go. I believe the PSOE leadership fight is far from over. The establishment will never accept well Sanchéz and there will be constant battles between both sides.

Neither Sánchez nor Díaz were good candidates in my opinion. Possibly the best (or the least bad) option was Patxi López. Sánchez has stated that he wants to follow the Portuguese patch. Why do you think that approaching Podemos is a bad thing? The letwing vote is divided in almost equal parts between the reds and the purples. Days of hegemony are over, despite the wishes of Susana Díaz. The only way that PSOE can govern is with the help of Podemos.
I agree with you. Patxi Lopéz was the best option of the 3 but, at the same time, not a very good one. Podemos is toxic and any approach of PSOE to them will be very harmful. Iglesias will, with high certainty, try to push PSOE so much to the left that it will lose the center ground and this will make many moderate voters and politicians to break with PSOE, making the PSOE split like the French PS. PSOE needs a strong leader and message to decrease the power and influence Podemos has right now and, also, PSOE has to turn the paper and be them influencing and threatening Podemos, not the other way around.

The Portuguese solution cannot be repeated in Spain, because of what i explained above, but the path the PS is doing could be an example for the PSOE. Mr Costa has, basically, stolen the PSD/CDS economic and fiscal ideas like tight budget control, more emphasis on exports than imports, less public investments and because these policies are, right now, delivering a good economy and a good deficit reduction, which are very popular, the BE/PCP are just swallowing dry because any criticism will hurt them. Also, having a reformist agenda like Macron could help PSOE draw a line with PP, as they could argue that they are offering solutions while PP is trying to defend those sleazy people in court.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #31 on: May 21, 2017, 07:09:17 PM »
« Edited: May 21, 2017, 07:18:03 PM by Mike88 »

Well, will see if Sanchéz has changed. Until now, his statements and moves don't seem to show any change. What Félix Tezanos is somewhat i said but i don't agree that PSOE should reach agreements with Podemos. I think with the right message, PSOE can all but destroy Podemos.

Let's see. Podemos main weapon since the beginning is the corruption in Spanish politics. If PSOE or even Sanchéz, i don't think so, but who knows, steals that weapon from Podemos and, for example, tries to tackle corruption within PSOE and propose legislation or actions to prevent corruption, that could help to rehabilitate the party's image. Plus, fiscally responsible policies and reforms in the economy, need to be on the top priorities for PSOE. One of the main criticisms made of social democratic parties is that they are fiscally incompetent and that they create more debt and deficit. Putting forward fiscally moderate and responsible policies will, with little doubt, turn PSOE an even more stronger alternative. If they can be fiscally responsible, prove that they can use taxpayers money carefully, and that they learned from the mistakes of third-way policies that spend, spend will be paid by something, PSOE, like many other social democratic parties, can rise up again. And they need to campaign with this platform. Voters like when politicians offer them real solutions and are truthful in what they are proposing.

I believe this could be a good path for PSOE.  
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #32 on: May 29, 2017, 07:24:58 PM »
« Edited: May 29, 2017, 09:26:02 PM by Mike88 »

Found this map on electomania. The map shows if Spain had the UK electoral system, how each party would perform according with the June 26, 2016 election results:



249 PP
 38 Podemos
 33 PSOE
 23 ERC
   7 PNV
   0 C's

A super PP majority.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #33 on: May 30, 2017, 09:52:13 AM »

What's with PP's good results on the southern Coast of Andalucia?
I believe these results come from the big coastal cities like Málaga or Cadiz plus the tourism resort cities of Marbella, Torremolinos and Isla Cristina. Curiously a similar pattern is also seen in Algarve.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #34 on: June 04, 2017, 12:00:10 PM »

Talk about conflicting polls...

Metroscopia/El Pais:

Link

NC Report/La Razón
36.0% PP
20.5% PSOE
20.2% UP
12.6% C's
Link

Nonetheless, i made an average of the most recent polls by polling companies and the results are:

30.9% PP
22.2% PSOE
20.3% UP
15.1% C's
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #35 on: June 14, 2017, 09:48:54 AM »

Will ERC or PDECat even vote beside the PSOE after Sanchéz said he's also against the referendum? And i don't see PNV vote a alongside Podemos on anything actually.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #36 on: July 05, 2017, 05:26:39 PM »

Today, the Constitutional Court has struck down Puigdemont plan to finance the referendum. Puigdemont wanted to put in the budget the costs of the referendum but the Court said that it's illegal.

Did the same happened in 2014? I don't recall.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #37 on: September 20, 2017, 10:09:08 AM »

Worth noting that he doesn't even have the support of the Spanish Congress! A Cs proposal to signal support towards the government and the judiciary failed yesterday after PSOE unexpectedly voted against, claiming the proposal should also signal support to negotiate with the Catalan government.

In the end only PP and Cs voted in favour. Canarian nationalists and 4 PSOE defectors abstained and everyone else voted against.
From what i read in Spanish media, PSOE is deeply divided with the anti-Sanchéz wing in favour of supporting Rajoy and Rivera while the pró-Sanchéz wing doesn't know what to do. This PSOE indecision is very bad, IMO. Polls are suggesting the pro-Independence parties are losing steam but, i think, both sides have become to extreme. Nonetheless, i can't understand why the Catalan government is going ahead with this after the big cities (almost half of the population) said they wouldn't support the referendum and after the EU said that an independent Catalonia would be kicked out from the Union and go back to the end of line together with the former Yugoslavian republics.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #38 on: October 01, 2017, 06:32:51 AM »

D-Day is here people. Today is the date for the unilateral Catalan independence referendum. I will say that it's being a sh**tshow on both sides.

The referendum has only barely more credibilty than a North Korean election. There's no functioning census even though the pro-independence side illegally used one, many polling places have been closed, the telecommunications system to count the votes is down, in many places people are voting without envelopes, etc. Even the 2014 one was better organized.

On the other hand the Spanish government's repression has just made things worse. Why they didn't just allow them to vote I won't understand. Just say that the referendum is illegal and boycott it and that's it. They already did that in 2014, they could just have done it again!

My only guess is that Rajoy wanted to look "tough on Catalonia" and that there are a lot of critics from his right asking for a tougher response, but still.
We can argue the police response. In my opinion, i would had left them vote but, honestly, i was expecting clashes with the police. What i was not expecting, was people using their kids as somekind of shield or something. That was really bad. But you're right, this is sh**show. Sad
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #39 on: November 07, 2017, 10:57:15 AM »

CIS (Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas) poll from October:



Poll conducted between 2 and 11 October. Polled 2,487 voters. MoE of 2.0%.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #40 on: December 06, 2017, 06:39:03 PM »

Yikes! The polls are a mess.

Tack, we are following here very carefully the elections because, as we say here, "When Spain sneezes, Portugal catches pneumonia", and the main doubt we have here is what kind of coalitions can emerge from this. Can PSC and ERC make some kind of agreement to force constitutional reforms, or is ERC to much cornered in the independent side to even dialogue with PSC? Looking to the overall picture, it seems to me that PSC can play a major role on what kind of government Catalonia will have.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #41 on: December 07, 2017, 10:26:56 AM »

Yikes! The polls are a mess.

Tack, we are following here very carefully the elections because, as we say here, "When Spain sneezes, Portugal catches pneumonia", and the main doubt we have here is what kind of coalitions can emerge from this. Can PSC and ERC make some kind of agreement to force constitutional reforms, or is ERC to much cornered in the independent side to even dialogue with PSC? Looking to the overall picture, it seems to me that PSC can play a major role on what kind of government Catalonia will have.

To be fair, unless Portugal also has some secessionist region I wouldn't read much into this regional election. Tongue Spain's and Portugal's politics are somewhat comparable I guess, particularly in non-nationalist communities. But definitely not Catalan politics.

In theory a PSC-ERC alliance wouldn't be that difficult or unprecedented. Catalonia was ruled by a PSC-ERC-ICV allliance between 2003 and 2010 after all. I'm not sure if they would be able to work together. Remember that a constitutional reform would need the support not just of PSOE and Podemos but also PP and a referendum in all of Spain. So support in exchange for reforms is unlikely.

For all what's worth PP has been quite negative about reforms, saying that "they can't be to make secessionists happy" and the like. And even if it somehow passed the referendum might be a challenge and the campaign would be very ugly. It seems like the secessionists have sparked some sort of renaissance of Spanish nationalism.

I agree that PSC will be very important. But it seems that the most likely scenario if secessionists don't get their majority is a new election some time in early autumn of 2018. In that case the hypothetical coalitions would be:

-Secessionists+Podemos abstention. Very viable if ERC wins the election and picks their candidate. However that would certify Podemos' death in most of Spain so they'll be careful. If Puigdemont somehow manages to lead the secessionists it won't happen

-ERC-PSC-CeC: Somewhat viable. I can see ERC going for it, but PSC would have to at least accept a legal referendum which would cause caos and infighting inside PSOE (again). And of course numbers don't seem favourable anyways. They might get CUP to abstain but really I doubt it.

-PSC-CeC-Cs-PP: Somewhat viable if PSC somehow becomes the largest unionist party. I could see them being just left wing enough and just unionist enough to get Cs, PP's and Podemos' support. But still unlikely. Impossible if Cs is the largest party.

What worry us, here, is the economic impact the Catalonia crisis can have in the Spanish economy, that would ultimately affect deeply Portugal.

Nonetheless, very interesting coalition scenarios. We'll see how this unfolds.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #42 on: December 14, 2017, 06:08:34 PM »
« Edited: December 14, 2017, 06:11:49 PM by Mike88 »

Metroscopia poll for El País:



Polling still shows a close race between ERC and C's, while Puigdemont's JxCat seems to be falling. PP is at record low levels. I'm skeptical about turnout, 80% on a week day seems very high, IMO.

Also, no exit polls on election day.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #43 on: December 20, 2017, 08:46:25 PM »

When does polls close? Any exit polls?  Any links to results ?

No exit polls apparently. Polls close at 8pm (7pm London time). Official results site.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #44 on: December 21, 2017, 12:02:43 PM »
« Edited: December 21, 2017, 12:26:17 PM by Mike88 »

Turnout at 68.33% at 18:00h. +5.21% compared with 2015.

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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #45 on: December 21, 2017, 12:33:46 PM »

Turnout by province (2015 un brackets)

Barcelona 68.32% (63.21%)
Girona 68.16% (65.08%)
Lleida 66.54% (61.11%)
Tarragona 66.46% (61.78%)

Turnout decreases in the following comarcas: Berguedà, Moianès, Pallars Sobirà and Alta Ribagorça

Cs was the party most favoured by the turnout increase in the 2015 election

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/aumento-participacion-electoral-beneficio-Cs_0_718828760.html

We'll see how it works this time in the Barcelona Metropolitan region, where Cs and PSC are fighting for the non-nationalist vote.



Right now, only the comarca of Pallars Sobirà has a lower turnout compared with 2015.

With these figures at 18:00h, turnout can easily achieve 80/81% at the end of the day, IMO.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #46 on: December 21, 2017, 01:08:11 PM »

Graphic showing the increase/decrease of turnout by comarca, compared with % of vote for the pro-independence parties in 2015:

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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #47 on: December 21, 2017, 02:08:57 PM »
« Edited: December 21, 2017, 02:12:27 PM by Mike88 »

Here's the poll, done by GAD3 for Grupo Godó (La Vanguardia, 8TV and probably a radio station)



Worth noting that it is not a proper exit poll. Instead it's just a regular poll, but one that took interviews up until the last possible second. They apparently interviewed people until 1h ago.

Share of vote:

26.0% C's
22.5% ERC
19.0% JxCat
15.0% PSC
  7.0% Comú
  5.0% CUP
  4.5% PP

46.5% Pró-Independence
45.5% Anti-Independence
  7.0% Comú
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #48 on: December 21, 2017, 03:19:23 PM »

I know it's still early, Barcelona is only 4% in, but i think JxCat may be doing better than expected. We'll see.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


« Reply #49 on: December 21, 2017, 04:15:05 PM »

What a mess these results. C's will have a massive lead in the popular vote, but could have fewer seats than JxCat. Plus, the independence parties are poised to have the same total vote they had in 2015: 47%.
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