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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #25 on: October 11, 2015, 09:01:51 AM »


Including NC Report and Celeste-Tel is crazy too, so there's some kid of balance in that average. However, it includes polls released from Aug 15. I think such kind of work will be more interesting within one month from the date of the Catalan elections. There's a realistic chance of seeing C's as third party, so Albert Rivera could realize his dream of becoming the king maker. It'd be amusing a government of the two Kens: Pedro Sánchez and Rivera but (as far as I know) C's is not willing to join coalition governments (regrettably Sad ).

I guess so, but it is still mind-blowing. NRC Report and Celeste are indeed over-valuing the PP, but  in a less blatant manner (if still pretty blatant), because you can still find some polls in between, but sometimes it seems like Metroscopia has stopped calling people altogether and just make up random numbers. Worst part is that Metroscopia still has a reputation that neither NRC nor Celeste-Tel have. Which is worrying.

It is indeed realistic, the Catalan elections have propelled them to a centre stage of the campaign. Their electoral plank, with its pragmatic centrist message (reminds of the UCD's speeches: You are Christian-democrat? We have those in UCD, social-democrat? that too! Liberal? of course, democrat? sure thing!!) and what I call "moderate constitutional revision" plans seem likely to attract many dissatisfied PP voters and also PSOE voters who don't believe Sánchez will deliver.

You're right though. C's seems inclined (I'd say) towards supporting a minority PSOE government from outside (PP? Unlikely, I think) and will demand electoral law changes and a constitutional revision, in which all four main parties will participate. I wonder what will happen if we go down that route, in 1978 there were 2 main parties and 4 0.5 parties (PCE, AP, Minoría catalana and PNV), whereas now you have 4 national parties, one alienated Catalan nationalist and the PNV (funny how things change, now the PNV would be the more pragmatic unlike in 78). Reforming the Constitution (if it happens) will be a difficult thing.

That is, assumming C's supports the PSOE. If they support a PP minority, things will be weird and I doubt Rajoy will be allowed to remain as President. But who would replace him? The non-marianistas are very few within the party and Cospedal is hated (and so is Soraya) within the party.

Luckily I'll be in Spain on the 20th, so I'll vote Cheesy

So, Catalonia. What happens? Will the ERC/CDC alliance continue? Will they bother to take their seats or will they do Sinn Fein? Will Catalonia make moves towards independence between now and the election?

That's the million dollar question, isn't it?
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #26 on: October 11, 2015, 10:15:51 AM »

I see a clash between PNV and C's on an issue called concierto económico, because that is a sacred thing regardless how pragmatic Basque nationalists are. That's far from being the only obstacle for a much needed constitutional reform. The balance of forces between the four main parties after the elections has relevance in this context.

Indeed. If it were up to me, I'd suppress the concierto and replace it with ample fiscal autonomy for all autonomies at a similar level, perhaps with reduced competencies for the smaller regions, like Cantabria or La Rioja (I mean, c'mon, why are either of them CCAA??!). But since we're talking about what is feasible and not my own ideas, you are right. It's difficult, but I think that C's would give up on that issue after making some noise and explain their decision on the basis of 'achieving consensus requires giving up on some issues".

You are right of course, and this is all hypothesising. Elections in December are very far away in political terms and it can rain a lot in between. I do wonder how extending special protection to Catalan would work, as Catalanists want and PSOE and Podemos seem inclined to accept. What do you do? Put a clause saying "Catalan deserves special protection from the State"?
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #27 on: October 15, 2015, 09:16:20 AM »

Bad week for the PP: Arantza Quiroga (President of the Basque PP) resigns after her latest attempt to find a place for the PP in the Basque Country in a post-ETA scenario backfired and she was thoroughly criticised by her own party (as she did not consult Génova beforehand) forcing her out of her position. Cayatena Álvarez de Toledo, member of the hard right of the PP said in an interview she would not stand for election if Rajoy continues as candidate. Those controversial statements on the press made her colleagues really angry and she was shouted at at the end of yesterday's parliamentary session by her own party members for her 'betrayal'.

Meanwhile, Montoro was interviewed by El Mundo and he declared that within the party there are people who are 'ashamed' of belonging to the PP and probably refers to the suddenly more social tone the Government has taken for 2015, in an obviously electoralistic line. He also criticises the new generation of PP leaders, whom he feels undervalue the effort of this government on their attempt to widen the appeal of the PP from just 'the crisis is over' message and with their insistence on an ethical renewal of the party.

And then De Guindos has also announced that he will not continue as minister in the next legislature, "even if Rajoys asks me to".

The battle in the Basque Country is essentially a fight between the Sorayistas (Alfonso Alonso and the PP of Álava) and the Cospedal faction, of which Quiroga is a member (sort of, no official factions and all that). Although it is also a fight between the three provincial branches of the PP of Euskadi, basically Alava (Alonso, Oyarzabal) vs. Guipuzcoa & Vizcaya (Quiroga, Basagoiti), which also kind of a fight between the moderates who want the PP to move towards the centre and away from political irrelevance in the now post-ETA PP and the hardliners who want to continue with the Mayor Oreja and María an Gil years policy, which might not work so well as it once did after the demise of ETA.

In the meantime, 10/18 regional PP branches have no leader, as they have resigned, instead they are been led by interim gestoras, and that's 2 months away from the general elections.

And more, to round up today: Francisco Granados talks from prison, points at Aguirre and Ignacio González. Says that the Púnica is not a real operation, because there's still so much people to be detained. URL="http://www.elespanol.com/enfoques/20151014/71492892_0.html"]http://www.elespanol.com/enfoques/20151014/71492892_0.html[/URL]
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #28 on: November 02, 2015, 03:59:30 AM »

http://www.elespanol.com/actualidad/20151029/75242536_0.html

Interesting article, with an average of polls and a prediction of seats. Also looks at the possibilities of coalition-building.
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #29 on: November 04, 2015, 10:38:07 AM »

Politikon now publishes in English too and they have two interesting voting analysis:

The core of Spanish parties

The fallout of traditional parties and the emergence of new alternatives has come to tear up the relative homogeneity that existed across PP and PSOE voters. The electoral demand has become more fragmented along with the segmentation of supply, but we are still far from a whole understanding of how and to what extent has this happened.

The capital importance of the left-right or centre-periphery cleavages to understand the electoral market is taken for granted. Probably that is why these divisions get so much attention (most of it well justified) by analysts, journalists and politicians. However, there are more ways to look at this supply-demand relationship. Age, occupational structure, labour market position… These relations have strategic consequences for parties. And although class vote has not historically been a determinant aspect of the party system, the situation might be evolving in that direction, at least to a certain extent.

The data

Every party depends on specific social profiles among others. These are their core constituencies. To locate it and compare it with the overall social profile of the Spanish population we should observe the distribution of its voters and sympathisers across a series of variables. This is not about who ‘wins’ among the young, the old, the rich or the personal services employees. It is about knowing which percentage of the party’s constituency corresponds to each category.

The distribution of supporters  across age gives a good and particularly relevant data point to understand the emerging party structure. The next panel shows such distribution for each of the five main parties competing at the national level. Together with the percentage that corresponds to each party and age group I annotate the difference (in percentage points) with respect to the distribution across the whole population.



For example, 11% of Podemos’ supporters have between 18 and 24 years, 2.8pp above the average of 8.2%. But even when the youngest Spaniards are overrepresented in Podemos more than in any other party, they are only the fifth largest age group in the platform. In any case, it is true that Iglesias’ is the youngest organisation. At the other extreme, 39% of people supporting the PP are older than 64 years. This represents 15.5pp more than the average. Spain has an aging population: 23.4% of it is above 64. But the “population” of the PP is so much older. Even more than for the PSOE, whose structure is also significantly skewed toward senior citizens.

As a matter of fact, “the party of those who do not work” might be a good tagline to define the PP: 46.4% of its supporters are not part of the active population*.



The PSOE comes right behind. Needless to say, this distribution is intimately related to age. New parties do not have more than 17% of non-active voters. Podemos looks like a coalition between insider and outsider-based households. Ciudadanos, on the other hand, is considerably more skewed towards self-employed and managers, keeping still a strong base of insiders, although quite different from that of Podemos as it will be shown below.

It won’t be much of a surprise that both insiders and the unemployed (for the PP) have lost importance among classic parties’ supporters, leaving the socialists and the conservatives as quite dependent from retired people.



Not all retirees are equal. It is now the right moment to dissection each portion of the previous graph, starting with the first bloc. The PSOE has much more qualified manual workers among their retired voters, but the PP has a larger concentration of old & new middle classes, as well as higher classes.



To a certain extent, this trend is maintained when we observe the composition of insider-led household members within each party. While supporters of the PP who work and live in a household whose reference person has an open-ended contract the are mostly qualified and semi-skilled service sector employees, among PSOE’s manual and unskilled workers have a much stronger presence, although they still fail to constitute a majority.



Ciudadanos complements the significant presence of managers and self-employed in its ranks with a large number of managers and qualified professionals, but also middle class workers occupied in the service sector. The profile of ‘household insiders’ among Podemos is relatively similar, with one important caveat: the increased presence of skilled workers relative to the average, offering a mixed profile.

Among managers and entrepreneurs, Ciudadanos shows as well a markedly higher profile, in this case measured by education level, with respect to other parties and the overall population.



The trend gets confirmed when outsiders’ composition (quick reminder: people who work and live in households where the reference person has a temporary contract or is unemployed): those who support Ciudadanos, Podemos & Izquierda Unida have a higher skill profile.



However, education is not everything. It is quite illustrative to observe that Podemos is the party where overqualified workers find themselves with more relative power: above 12% of the ‘purple’ supporters fall into this category.



Overqualified does not mean poor. Observing the supporters’ distribution depending on individual income, Podemos displays an above-average profile , only below Ciudadanos and (partially) IU. The communist-green coalition has two peaks: working class (presumably from Asturias and Andalusia) and gauche divine.



The socialists display the lowest income profile. This is clearly influenced by age structure, which does not change the fact that the PSOE voter is poorer. As a matter of fact, an alternative calculation excluding retired people from the data does not significantly change the displayed profile.

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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #30 on: November 04, 2015, 10:38:46 AM »

Part 2:

The interpretation

All these data overload can be interpreted if the reader is willing to embark on adventurous hypothesis elaboration. A picture (or rather a useful caricature) of four prototypical parties emerge: the conservative (PP), the market-oriented reformist (Ciudadanos – C’s), the divided socialism (PSOE) and the angry youth party (Podemos).

Almost half of PP voters do not participate in the labour market. 40% are over 64 years old. Among the non-active people, middle and upper-middle classes constitute a clear majority (65%). Middle classes dominate as well among working age supporters. Its supporter with a manager status does not have a particularly high profile when it is compared with the average. But there are no overqualified people among its voters. From this point of view, the ‘adventurous hypothesis’ would be that PP supporters are those whose expectative not been dramatically affected by the crisis. In other words: those that can buy into its main campaigning message, based on “recovery is here, we have done what was needed, now it is not the right moment to experiment”.

The conservative position has not one but two nemeses. On the one side, Podemos is the party of those who radically oppose to the ‘success’ frame: there is no recovery, they seem to say, but a systemic crisis. Its supporters are way younger than those of other parties. Their income profile is a bit above the average, but 35% of them are either unemployed or have a temporary contract, contrasting with a slim 16% for the PP. Those workers in ‘outsider households’ are more skilled than the average. Therefore, it is not surprising that 12.6% of them is overqualified. Only a 18% is out of the economically active population. Around this core of ‘losers (of expectations)’, there is a cover of open-ended workers (32%) where both qualified technicians and manual workers reflect probably the vote absorbed from both socialists and communists. It looks like those who are not willing under any circumstance to assume the official narrative on crisis and recovery.

On the other side we find Ciudadanos, a party where, as in Podemos, most supporters are labour market participants (83%). And, as in Podemos, their profile is a bit younger than the average, although this time the 35-44 age group stands out. Nevertheless, outsiders are less than in Iglesias’ party (26%) and belong mostly to new middle classes, being substantially more qualified than those from other parties. As for insiders, middle and upper-middle classes from service sector are clearly overrepresented. As managers & employers, whose weight is at 11.3%. These are quite more skilled than the average, particularly when put against the PP managerial support. The class profile of Ciudadanos is clearly above that for other parties. Its reformist discourse squares well with the image of new middle classes, upper-middle classes and elites with a strong interest on advancing liberalization.

Among these three extremes, classic socialism has not found its place. It is clear that the age structure of PSOE’s supporters is more similar to the PP than to the rest. But these older, non-active people have a very different profile, with a clear majority of manual workers. The class-based differences are even more evident when observing the income profile of supporters: the PSOE is sharply below the rest. Despite the relative losses that the socialists have suffered from supporters with permanent contracts, they retain the largest core of industrial workers and unskilled. Many of their outsiders also belong to this category. The  socialist insistence on the idea of ​​”reindustrialization” is best understood under the light of this data, coupled with the fact that such voters also represent the core of militancy of the sister union, UGT. But they coexist with a huge number of working class retirees and with the highest representation of middle-low and low class among all parties. It is very difficult to build a coherent platform that leave them all well satisfied, let alone recovering lost voters or appealing to new ones. At the end of the day, the retirees has been the least affected social group in this crisis thanks to the structure of the Spanish welfare state, while the poorest working classes have taken a big blow that could have been cushioned with an alternative system. But under a heavy budget constraint it is not credible to suggest a change towards such alternative without assuming that there will be either spending cuts in other sections or tax increases. In addition, a considerable amount of people of lower middle and lower class have difficulty finding a decent position in the labor market in part because of our regulatory and welfare model, which benefits precisely the industrial working class voter. In short, a very hard puzzle.

*The division between those with permanent (insiders) and temporary (outsiders) contracts refers to the reference person in the household, who may or may not be the one questioned. This is due to the methodology followed by the CIS. Therefore, these categories represent actively working people who do not belong to any of the other categories, who are living in a household where either him or someone with higher income has a permanent contract or a temporary one. In most cases, if the reference person has a temporary contract, all other household members who work have it as well. But the opposite does not hold so often. Therefore, the bias introduced by the use of the question tends to reduce the representation of temporary workers. Whenever I make references to permanent, temporary workers, insiders or outsiders the reader must take this into account.

** From now on, the used samples tend to be smaller, which means that it is essential to take all the results with a grain of salt.
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #31 on: November 11, 2015, 07:54:47 AM »

What are these Castillians you speak of?
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #32 on: November 11, 2015, 12:58:22 PM »
« Edited: November 11, 2015, 01:00:20 PM by Nanwe »

What are these Castillians you speak of?
Castilla is the center-north portion of Spain, it's  sometime used as a term for the regions not looking for further  autonomy  or independence

Nanwe is from Valladolid, so I'm sure that he knows where is located Castile in the Spanish portion of the Iberian Peninsula. By the way, the 'Old Castile' (currently Castilla y León) is in the center-north, while the 'New Castile' (Castilla-La Mancha) lies in the center-south and Madrid is in the center-center of the Peninsula. The point is that saying that the rest of Spaniards are "Castilian" is fully incorrect. Another question is that Spanish language is called "Castilian" in Latin America and parts of Spain like Catalonia. I'm "Castilian speaking", but certainly not "Castilian" because I was born and live in another region and don't have family roots in that part of Spain.

Yes, indeed. Sorry about being cheeky, but I was at work and at a loss of words. 'Castilla' or 'castellano' is not a real ethnic or even identity criterion, if you want to distinguish between the people from the historic regions (Galicia, Cat., Basque C.), just mention, 'the rest of Spain' or 'Spaniards'. There is, beyond some groups like the Partido Comunero or the PCPE, so small that could practically be statistical errors, no Castillian identity. Most people in Castilla (which is indeed a geographical term, comprising CyL, CAM and C-LM) identify as from their city (or province at best) and then as Spaniards. This is similar to how English people don't really identify as English much, but even to a higher degree.

As Velasco puts it, not everyone who is a monolingual Spanish-speaker is 'culturally Castillian' (assuming that's a thing), but rather the opposite! As someone from Valladolid, I would probably feel closer in cultural terms to a Basque person than to say, someone from Seville or Tenerife.

EDIT: Actually, I'll correct myself, I do identify myself as Castillian but only when I'm taking part of that great Valladolid tradition of pretending like people from León are untermenschen.
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Nanwe
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Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #33 on: December 03, 2015, 05:43:04 PM »

So I tried to map, by the CIS' own poll, a map of Spain. I also used the figures from europaspress and Kiko LLaneras' own figures to try and determine the most voted party to shade the provinces. I decided to always use the likelier number of seats whenever the CIS showed two possibilities (so 2 if it said 2-3 and 3 if it predicted 3-2, obviously this is more than open to change). Since about 40% of people who said they are going to vote haven't yet made up their minds, all these projections can not simply be very accurate.

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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #34 on: December 04, 2015, 07:48:38 AM »

It's a pity that the CIS did not publish the predicted percentages per province, only the seats...

Also, although the predict that IU will win a seat in Asturias, is Llamazares still running there? If not, maybe the seat could be potentially lost by IU. And already, according to the prediction, they are going to lose their own grupo, so that'd be even worse...
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #35 on: December 05, 2015, 01:35:36 PM »

Also, although the predict that IU will win a seat in Asturias, is Llamazares still running there? If not, maybe the seat could be potentially lost by IU. And already, according to the prediction, they are going to lose their own grupo, so that'd be even worse...

The IU candidate in Asturias is a certain Manuel González Orviz. Probably the seat is going to be hard to retain, I'd say IU has marginal chances there. Bearing in mind that Podemos got 19% in the regional election and IU 11.9% with Llamazares as candidate, I think it's more likely a second seat for Podemos in that province. Maybe the CIS is correct with the other parties (PP+FAC 3 seats, PSOE 2 and C's 1).

As for Podemos, I think they're going to perform a bit worse in Catalonia and the Basque Country than the CIS predicts. Anyway there's an extreme volatility in Catalonia.

Also, I find surprising the projection in Andalusian provinces. The CIS estimates 3 seats for Ciudadanos in Seville and Malaga and 2 in Cadiz, while Podemos gets only 1 seat in each. I can't believe that C's gets 14 seats in the region and Podemos only 5.

I wonder if the estimated result for the oranges in Madrid is not a bit exaggerated, although at this point I find plausible that C's comes second (and PSOE fourth!). In certain Castilian provinces it might happen that C's surpasses PSOE as second party and gets the last seat... But the difference could be a handful of votes, so these seats are not secure.

It is surprising, but perhaps it's that C's is surfing the anti-establishment wave at the right time, whereas Podemos did it too early? In any case, indeed, a handful of votes is going to determine whether the emergent parties manage to obtain or not seats in the medium sized constituencies. A bad result and they can be screwed royally, whereas if they manage they can obtain spectacular results, the 20D is going to be an amazing night.

Catalonia is impossible to predict. In Tarragona six parties win one seat each. That's just crazy. I think the PP thinks that the danger of C's in the rural medium is very, very real, which is why they have put forward so many proposals that are only attractive to the rural voter.

If Democràcia i Llibertat has such a poor showing in Catalunya,will it kill all possibilities of CUP voting for him as president?

So far, and until the 27th of December, when the CUP's National Assembly meets, they won't support Mas. In any case, they probably won't support him and already JxS is tearing itself apart and the CDC leaders (Homs, Mas Colell) are backpedaling faster than Indurain ever did... So most likely option? Elections again in Catalonia in early 2016.
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #36 on: December 11, 2015, 04:13:59 PM »


How so?
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Nanwe
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E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #37 on: December 14, 2015, 05:09:41 AM »

Depiction of this legislature:

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Nanwe
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Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #38 on: December 15, 2015, 06:51:20 AM »

Andorra's El Periòdic d'Andorra is polling these days and until Sunday the changing preferences in music tastes in Spain, since publishing polls is not allowed this week.

La PPuerta de Alcalá 25,4% (104-108 encuestados)
Una Rosa es Una Rosa 20,9% (81-85 encuestados)
Ghostbusters – The Purples 19% (63-67 encuestados)
Ciudadanos de un lugar llamado Mundo 17,2% (57-61 encuestados)
La Unión – Vuelve el Amor 4,8% (3-5 encuestados)
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #39 on: December 16, 2015, 08:36:57 AM »

Today, El Periodic decided to report on the preferences (and prices) of Andorrans in the street markets of Andorra la Vella. About 700-750 people went to the market today.

The number of stands selling each product are in between brackets.

The prices are outrageous though.

Water 25.4€ (106-110)
Strawberries 20.6€ (81-85)
Aubergines 19.6€ (66-70)
Oranges 16.3€ (54-58)
Tomatoes 4.5€ (3-5)

Data provided by the Gestora Estatal de Suministros y Oferta de Productos (GESOP).

It remains hard to believe that the price of oranges can go down so quickly in two days or that the price of aubergines can skyrocket so quickly. We'll have to wait until the shops close for Sunday to know
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #40 on: December 16, 2015, 09:17:21 AM »
« Edited: December 16, 2015, 09:20:28 AM by Nanwe »

Wow, the tomato salesmen are going to regret not bundling their wares with the aubergines. RIP TOMATOES

seriously though, did Riviera kill a puppy or something?

Could be the polling, could be a bad polling day, could be some bias... It's hard to tell. Especially since many, many voters won't decide until last moment.

It's indeed unlikely that they are collapsing so fast... but they have made some stupid mistakes last week with the whole gender violence comments on the debate of 9 parties last week. My personal opinion is that C's, PSOE and Podemos will be neck on neck in between 22-18% of the votes, with the PSOE most likely to remain (narrowly in terms of votes, not so on seats) the second one.
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #41 on: December 16, 2015, 09:40:57 AM »

The fact that the anti-PP vote is so divided pretty much assures the PP control of the Senate, right?

According to this article, it is rather likely. Although the Senate uses SNTV, not FPTP. That the Senate would be controlled by the PP is not a problem for ordinary laws, it is however a major problem for constitutional reform or the application of Article 155.
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #42 on: December 17, 2015, 06:52:27 AM »

Today's Andorran fruit prices.

Water 26.2€ (108-112)
Strawberries 21€ (83-87)
Aubergines 20.4€ (71-75)
Oranges 15.9€ (50-54)
Tomatoes 3.7€ (2-4)
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Nanwe
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Posts: 219
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Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #43 on: December 17, 2015, 03:40:06 PM »

Today's Andorran fruit prices.

Water 26.2€ (108-112)
Strawberries 21€ (83-87)
Aubergines 20.4€ (71-75)
Oranges 15.9€ (50-54)
Tomatoes 3.7€ (2-4)

Hmm.. I guess the "Orange" surge from a couple of weeks ago is subsiding.  I thought a logical outcome of what fruits would be bought would be a "Water"+"Orange" combination.  But perhaps that is in doubt now.

It is. However let's be wary of just one poll. Because this is just one, with a small number of people asked (I think for this one about 600) and without time to do much (after all they are being published daily), so I think that while C's might be going down since last week, it's hard to believe it's going down at 0.4 pp. a day. It's more likely that it wont end at 19-20% as expected last week, but rather at 17-18, or at worst 16-17. Mind you, this makes the situation highly volatile, because 15% is the de facto threshold for the medium-sized constituencies and the current scenario neither PP+C's, PSOE+C's or PSOE+Podemos(+IU) would have a majority. It'd be ideal for constitutional reform, or for a brief legislature... Or for some kind of new party system coalition with the nationalists (can you imagine some weird PP+C's+PNV or PP+C's+DiL, or PSOE+Podemos+DiL??)
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Nanwe
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E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #44 on: December 17, 2015, 07:19:47 PM »

What is the difference in political philosophy between Podemos and IU?? Wouldnt it have made sense for IU to simply fold or merge with Podemos?

Podemos refuses to acknowledge their political philosophy. It remains part of a populist current that has no political philosophy, and hence this gives it a certain degree of freedom to react on all issues, compared to the rigid Izquierda.

You see a similar phenomenon with the far right, whose political philosophy died or lost credibility with WW2. This initially accounted for their dismal scores but now that electoral realignment is a thing, it allows them to pick certain sections of the electorate through discourse either taken from other political factions or adapted to modern issues such as globalisation.

Like Nanwe puts it, it has to do with marketing.

But as far as I know Podemos and Izquierda Unida really don't get in each other's way as much as, say, Syriza and the KKE.

If you want core ideological differences, Podemos have a right-wing in the party dedicated more to democratisation and local decision making and social movements, while the left-wing backs this on Gramscist, Eurocommunist "reclaim the working class" grounds. Izquierda are sort of decaying Trotskyists. I haven't read much about them but they rely on their industrial working class base alone and seem proud of that.

Yes, honestly, IU for as much as they want to pretend they are like in times of Anguita and whatnot, stil suffer the scars of their brief flirting with social democracy under Llamazares, and they seem pretty content with their irrelevant but right position in the incoming elections. Also, IU is not so much a party as a coalition of loads of parties, which makes internal decision-making rather byzantine, which is why open systems within IU for choosing all the deputies, like Podemos sort of does (and I say sort of, because Iglesias likes to put his cool people here and there, bypassing the assemblies) , because that would break the internal equilibrium between the various parties and groups that form IU. Garzón is a really good candidate and IU is all over the place in Twitter but they are simply seen as old. Indeed, Garzón fits better in Podemos (if further left than Iglesias, I'd say) than in the old IU... But then again IU is an old party and Garzón has done a great job at saving the party from the depths of oblivion it seemed to have reached with Cayo Lara's incompetent leadership.

But then again, IU always has this working-class (probably retired by now) people who have always voted IU (or ICV) and will do until they die inherited from when it was just the PCE. So that will always guarantee them some support, but as Velasco says, they must reach 5 seats, if they fall below that and enter the Mixed Group, they'll be politically irrelevant in Parliament, and that could mean their doom.
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Nanwe
Rookie
**
Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #45 on: December 18, 2015, 09:55:30 AM »

Water 25.8€ (107-111)
Strawberries 21.4€ (83-87)
Aubergines 20.4€ (71-75)
Oranges 16€ (50-54)
Tomatoes 3.8€ (2-4)

Today's polling.

I honestly do think that Ciudadanos is a social liberal party, however a) it's a new party ans has it still has to create discipline in its ranks and also, there's a certain difference between Ciudadanos and Ciutadans.
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Nanwe
Rookie
**
Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #46 on: December 19, 2015, 04:03:48 AM »



European elections



Local (for bigger cities) and regional elections.
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Nanwe
Rookie
**
Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #47 on: December 20, 2015, 07:54:47 PM »

All in all, it's been a weird night. Turnout far lower than expected (73 vs. 77-80), "great" night for the PSOE and Podemos (even if bitter-sweet for both)l, C's really underperformed although they were also quite hurt by the electoral system and I suppose this last week when they lost a lot of momentum did not help and resulted in potential voters sating home (?). The party got 14%, which is far lower than expected by, anyone since, idk, March or so?

The creation of a government is going to be tough. Hopefully grand coalition that manages to implement constitutional, institutional and electoral reforms. Also, a consensus on education would be neat. That's my wish list Tongue

***

Putting some things in perspective:

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Nanwe
Rookie
**
Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #48 on: December 20, 2015, 07:56:44 PM »

Please don't try to build theories on subjects you ignore.


I'm simply isolating the variables. Both Catalonia and Basques had strong nationalist political presence in Spain after Franco's fall. Obviously their nationalisms are different, but we can agree that Basque autonomy is at least deeper than Catalunya's? Why do you think that is, given that voters have voted for similar nationalist parties in both communities since the fall of Franco? It wouldn't be because ETA were going around the place murdering people and the Spanish government knew they had to put an end to it eventually rather than fund organizations like the GAL. That's one of the few variables that differs from Catalunya's.

I am not condoning violent protest btw.

EDIT : Just let me clarify as I was on a mobile device : somebody asked why the Basques are staying quiet (they're not, since so many voted for Podemos, who clearly want constitutional reform) and what goals Basque nationalists have. I put forward the idea that Basques were actually happy with their level of autonomy at this moment, because their demands had been met. Their demands were met and accepted largely due to the violent nature of the regional problems surrounding the Basque country, created by the ETA's presence throughout the years, whereas Catalunya has had a more gradualist approach to identity-rebuilding, devolution of powers to the Catalan parliament and autonomy. There is nothing outrageous about this.

Honestly, the Basques don't have their fiscal autonomy because of ETA, but rather because of the fact that their fiscal autonomy has been a consistent part of national legislation since the 19th century in its current form, and actually dates to the Middle Ages. It wasn't repealed under Franco and it was the bare minimum for an agreement with the PNV, so, as it happens ETA did not place the same pressuring role on Madrid as most ppl would assume. ETA was not treated as a political issue, but as a law and order one.
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Nanwe
Rookie
**
Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

« Reply #49 on: December 21, 2015, 05:55:39 AM »
« Edited: December 21, 2015, 06:10:09 AM by Nanwe »



Podemos* = Podemos, En Marea (Galicia), En Comú-Podem (Catalonia), Compromís-Podem-És el Moment (Valencia)
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