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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 370905 times)
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #25 on: December 20, 2015, 05:17:12 PM »

PSOE+Podemos 161 (42.68%) PP-C 161 (42.62%)
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #26 on: December 20, 2015, 05:23:58 PM »

PP deputy PM Soraya Saenz de Santamaria said that PP "has won election."  I guess this is part of the jockeying for position in the battle of government formation.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #27 on: December 20, 2015, 05:25:17 PM »

Back to PSOE+Podemos 160  PP-C 162
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #28 on: December 20, 2015, 05:33:12 PM »

Back to PSOE+Podemos 160  PP-C 162
You should put Unidad Popular with left-wing bloc.
Kingmakers will be Catalonian separatists.

Would Podemos and  Unidad Popular accept being in the same ruling coalition ?
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #29 on: December 20, 2015, 06:00:21 PM »

How hard-line will PP and C be about not doing deals with nationalists forces?  Did not a PP administration with support from nationalists come to power after the 1996 elections ?
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #30 on: December 20, 2015, 11:05:12 PM »

This poll

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/678587014493663233

was almost spot on.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #31 on: January 25, 2016, 07:01:19 AM »

(Bloomberg) -- Party of acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy would be only one of biggest four to increase number of seats in Parliament if elections were to be repeated, though still insufficient to govern, newspaper says, citing GAD3 poll.
- PP to increase seats to 131 from 123 that were won in Dec. 20 election, while Socialists would lose one seat, to 89: Poll
- Podemos would drop four seats to 65, Ciudadanos falls two seats, to 38
- 802 people were interviewed Jan. 15-21, with 3.5pp margin of error
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #32 on: April 18, 2016, 02:34:06 PM »

Podemos members reject backing Socialist-led govt in Spain.  It was 88.23% opposed to such a government.  So unless PP-PSOE-C can form a government soon we are looking at elections in the Summer.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #33 on: May 24, 2016, 07:04:09 AM »

It is impressive that Podemos–IU seems to be running slightly ahead of its 2015 performance.  In situations like this one would expect polarization toward the two largest blocs in 2015 which would be PP and PSOE but this does not seem to be the case.  In the election results roughly matches polls are we not just stuck in the same deadlock as 2015?  If PSOE loses support from 2015 to the point where they are behind Podemos–IU would they not support PP-C from the outside to prevent another election where they will lose more support ?
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #34 on: May 29, 2016, 02:36:16 PM »

It seems Podemos–IU is destined to gain seats even if their vote share stays the same as 2015 mostly because of the combined vote share would push them above the threshold to get seats in several electoral districts and for sure ensure that the 2015 IU vote is not wasted. 
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #35 on: May 31, 2016, 06:04:11 AM »

I can't remember - are UpyD (UtrieD, more like) bothering to run?

It seems that they keep on trying. According to the provisional list of candidacies published by the official gazette, seven parties and coalitions are going to run in all electoral districts: PP, PSOE, UP and allies, C's, PACMA, UPyD and Recortes Cero-Grupo Verde.

Why would not UPyD consider an alliance/joint list with C.  It is clear their votes will be wasted due to threshold effects
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #36 on: May 31, 2016, 05:45:38 PM »

It the results matches the current polling I think the result will be a PP minority government with PSOE and C abstaining. There is no way  PSOE plays second fiddle to Podemos.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #37 on: June 01, 2016, 10:35:11 AM »

Maybe its me but I think I saw this movie before

PP                          = ND
PSOE                     = PASOK
Podemos                = SYRIZA
C                            = DIMAR
IU                          = ANEL ? KKE ? I guess neither fits
May 12 election      = Dec 15 election
June 12 election     = June 16 election

What is similar is not just the parties but the political calculations each actor has seems to be similar as well.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #38 on: June 09, 2016, 06:27:22 AM »

CIS poll

PP                29.2%         118-121
PSOE            21.2%           78-80
Podemos-IU  25.6%           88-92
C                  14.6%           38-39
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #39 on: June 09, 2016, 10:05:39 PM »

Would not the relative strength of Podemos-IU provoke C -> PP tactical voting?
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #40 on: June 22, 2016, 05:21:55 AM »

Podemos willing to not include Catalonia referendum in potential negotiations with PSOE on forming a govt., El Pais reports citing sources from the party it doesn’t identify.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #41 on: June 25, 2016, 11:58:37 AM »

(Bloomberg) -- (Corrects to move reference to final poll in headline) Caretaker Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s People’s Party on track for 116-120 seats in Sunday’s election, according to a Gesop survey published by El Periodic d’Andorra on its website.
PP rises from 114-118 seats in Friday’s poll, down from 123 seats in Dec. 20 election
Podemos set for 83-87 seats vs 71 in December
Socialists on 83-87 seats vs 90
Ciudadanos 38-42 seats vs 40
Poll based on 900 interviews conducted June 22-24
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #42 on: June 26, 2016, 10:39:03 AM »

Turnout at 14:00 (CET) is 36.86%, almost identical to December. This doesn't mean that figures are going to be the same when polling stations close at 20:00. It could drop in the afternoon... or not.

It seems by region



Turnout by 2pm was higher relative to 2015 in areas of PP and PSOE strength.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #43 on: June 26, 2016, 11:37:39 AM »

Bloomberg : SPAIN VOTE PARTICIPATION AT 51.17% AT 6.15PM, DOWN FROM DEC.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #44 on: June 26, 2016, 11:50:05 AM »

Looks like turnout is down 7% and is a record low.   This should help mchine parties like PP and PSOE.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #45 on: June 26, 2016, 12:56:07 PM »

Exit polls rumors are that Podemos overtook PSOE and that C is doing badly. 
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #46 on: June 26, 2016, 12:59:42 PM »

Exit polls:
PP 117-121
Podemos at 91-95 seats
PSOE 81-85
C 26-30
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #47 on: June 26, 2016, 01:01:11 PM »

In theory Podemos+PSOE has majority.  But in 2015 exit polls seems to have underestimated PP so we will have to see.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #48 on: June 26, 2016, 01:02:49 PM »

GAD3 exit poll has PP 123 Podemos 88 PSOE 85 C 31.  Very close to Podemos+PSOE majority.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #49 on: June 26, 2016, 01:06:12 PM »

GAD3 exit poll has PP 123 Podemos 88 PSOE 85 C 31.  Very close to Podemos+PSOE majority.
There are as well some indy leftist regionalist parties right?
I guess that should be enough for a leftwing coalition.

Main problem here is will PSOE be willing to play second fiddle to Podemos.  Most likely not.
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