Spanish elections and politics

[Former President tack50]

Apparently, the Catalan parliament will vote in the next days for Quim Torra as president of the regional govermnent. No idea who he was until today, but the opposition complains about his "sectarian" profile, and he has stated that Puigdemont remains the "legitimate president of the country".

He apparently was the former president of Omnium for a short while. But yeah, I didn't know who he was either. And much of the complaint about his sectarian profile is because he is a hardliner on independence. He has also had several anti-Spanish xenophobic tweets in the past like:

"Spaniards only know how to exploit"
"We've been under a Spanish occupation since 1714"
"If we stay here for a couple more years we will end as crazy as the Spaniards"
"Spaniards in Catalonia are like energy, they don't disappear, they transform"
"Shame is a word Spaniards have deleted from their vocabulary"
"Listening to Albert Rivera speak about morals is like listening to Spaniards talk about democracy"

[Former President tack50]

Why is CUP rising so much?

No idea. Then again it might be just an outlier. Another poll by a different pollster showed CUP exactly where they were in the last election (4%, 4 seats), so I guess they are really somewhere in between. No idea why they are rising though? Maybe the polarized campaign saw CUP leaning voters vote for Puigdemont and now they are coming home?

https://www.electograph.com/2018/04/cataluna-elecciones-autonomicas.html

Also, here's a poll for the Barcelona town hall. Colau goes from winning the election all the way to 4th place (granted, withing the margin of error but still). Meanwhile, PP fails to get a seat for the first time since 1979 and gets literally it's worst result ever.

[Former President tack50]

El País strikes back! Metroscopia-El País poll



https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2018/05/13/actualidad/1526222522_428410.html

Granted, they are a thrash tier pollster and it's an outlier, but if it's anywhere near correct then I guess RIP Old 2 party system (PP-PSOE): 1982-2020.

[Former President tack50]

There's kind of a scandal ongoing in Podemos right now. Apparently Pablo Iglesias and his girlfriend Irene Montero (who is also the speaker of the parliamentary group in Congress) and who are expecting babies, have bought a huge and expensive house (worth 660 000€) in the suburbs of Madrid and lots of people are unhappy.

Many are critizising them, saying that they've basically betrayed everything they've stood for until now, or reposting old tweets from Pablo Iglesias himself, with the most common one being "Would you trust someone with a 600 000€ home with the economic policies of this country?" (criticising when then economics minister Luis de Guindos also bought a 600k € home). I've also seen a couple comparisons drawn to former PM Felipe González, who apparently bought a yacht after he left office. Others have also mentioned the expensive wedding of IU leader Alberto Garzón, which apparently cost 100 000€. In other words, a lot.

Keep in mind that Podemos has usually spoken a lot against money in politics, to the point where their MPs limit themselves to 3 times the minimum salary (which would be around 2500€ a month). So now buying a huge and expensive home in a rich neiughbourhood comes off as quite hypocritical from Iglesias.

[Former President tack50]

Pablo Iglesias' house stuff has taken an unexpected turn! Apparently after all the drama and internal complaints from some Podemos members (the most prominent one probably being the one from the mayor of Cádiz), he and Montero will put themselves on a referendum upon party members, on whether he should stay as party leader, or resign.

The actual question is: "Do you consider that Pablo Iglesias and Irene Montero should stay as secretary general and parliamentary speaker of Podemos?"

Personally, I think he'll easily survive, he wouldn't call the internal referendum if he thought he was going to lose. Plus it would throw Podemos in a lot of disarray 1 year before the regional elections.

Though it's worth mentioning that on the last party vote back in January of 2017, he didn't exactly cruise without opposition, winning only around 54% of the vote, compared to Errejón's 33% and 9% for the anti-capitalists. An upset is extremely unlikely, but I guess not completely so.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2018/05/19/5b0046ca268e3e0a3b8b4622.html

[Former President tack50]

Also, while everyone expected article 155 to be lifted shortly, now that Torra has named a new government, PM Rajoy has said he won't lift article 155, as several of his cabinet ministers are in prision or "exiled", and that article 155 will only be lifed when Torra names a proper cabinet.

I'm somewhat surprised by this though not too much. I guess he wants to appear "tough on Catalonia"? PP and Cs seem to be in a competition for that lol. Even PSOE is trying to appear somewhat tough as well! (so much for Sánchez's campaign 1 year ago)

[Former President tack50]

The 2018 budget has finally been passed, with the same vote as the 2017 one:

Yes: 176/350 (PP, Cs, PNV, CC, NCa, Foro Asturias, UPN

No: 174/350 (PSOE, Podemos, ERC, PDECat, Compromís, Bildu)

However up until the vote it was unclear whether it would pass or not! PNV had promised not to pass the budget until article 155 was lifted. However they had to break that promise, claiming that "article 155 will be lifted imminently" (not really if Torra keeps behaving like this but whatever)

They did get a lot in the budget, like more money for the Basque Country, or a rise in pensions. Similarly the Canarian parties got more money for the Canary Islands and a rise in the discount for flights to the mainland.

I guess PNV might lose some more nationalist voters to Bildu. However this is a big breath of oxygen for PP, who manages to extend the life of parliament at least until late 2019, something sorely needed as Cs stays high in polls.

[Former President tack50]

And just like that Cs has filed its own no confidence motion.

That's impossible. You need 35 MPs to file a no confidence motion, Cs only has 32. So Cs can't file a no confidence motion alone

[Former President tack50]

Keep in mind everyone that it's far from clear whether the no confidence vote will actually be successful. There are 2 possible ways for the no confidence vote to be successful (176/350 MPs are needed, an overall majority):

PSOE+Cs+Podemos
PSOE+Podemos+ERC+PDECat+PNV

Also, a no confidence vote just to call a snap election is vastly different from one where PSOE would actually try to govern for a while. It seems PSOE prefers the latter as long as they don't have to deal with the secessionists (though in a break from what PSOE policy used to be, Sánchez is open to that option!). While Cs obviously prefers a snap election.

 

[Former President tack50]

To be fair, El Español-Sociométrica is quite a PP-unfriendly pollster (to the point where they are the only ones that give Vox seats).

Another poll today, this time by NC Report-La Razón shows a radically different picture.



However, NC Report did its interviews until the 25th of May, which means that the most recient events like the no confidence proposal were not captured. El Español polled for 1 more day (until the 26th) and claim that of the 1700 interviews, 300 happened after the no confidence vote was proposed.

I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. PP has certainly lost the 2nd place spot to PSOE by now, but is probably ahead of Podemos.

Also, sidenote:

Iglesias and Montero have won their internal referendum. Turnout was extremely high (180 000 people), the highest in Podemos history. They won the referendum 68-32%. So, higher than the 2017 primary when he only got 55%, but still low especially since a chunk of the vote happened after the no confidence vote and the Gürtel ruling. I'd say that if Podemos gets a bad result, Iglesias should retire

[Former President tack50]

The no confidence motion depends on the PNV. I really think they would hate to vote against the PP but that would depend on part on the support for the motion in Euskadi. Rajoy (and in general, the spanish right) is deeply unpopular in the basque country, so I think the population will hate if the PNV is saw as a "savior" of Rajoy. What could happen in the regionals of next year? Could Urkullu lost the election? Who would benefit in that case? EH Bildu?

EH Bildu would certainly benefit the most. Maybe PSOE or Podemos also rise a bit but unlikely.

However Urkullu is definitely not losing the election. Current regional Basque polls are predicting PNV going up, not down. I guess it might stall PNV's momentum and bring them back to their 2016 results at worst.

Keep in mind that PNV has been in power every time except for the short 2009-2012 PSOE government propped up by PP, and the 2009 election was already controversial sincer Batasuna and their fake "totally not Batasuna" replacements were banned. PNV is a very flexible party, they have done deals with basically everyone in the Basque parliament, from Bildu (or Batasuna back in the day) to PP, to PSOE and IU

In any case, the next Basque election is not due until late 2020 so it's too early to talk about that.

And I wouldn't be so sure that it depends on PNV. The Catalan nationalists (especially PDECat apparently) are also not very happy with voting for Sánchez. I could see a scenario where the no confidence motion is completely derailed and only PSOE and Podemos vote in favour!

It would still be the most successful no confidence vote in Spanish history though. 156 votes in favour. The current record is the 1980 one against Suárez (152 in favour)

[Former President tack50]

Thanks for the answer, it's pretty amazing that party, I think it's by far the most politically successful (and skillful) of Spanish politics (although I hate their approach to politics).

Although I disagree on PdCat, from what I read, although some parts of JuntsxCat (the Puigdemont faction) wouldn't vote for Sanchez, the people from PdCat who are in Spanish congress don't have too much problems supporting the no confidence motion. Probably they could demand some symbolic thing (maybe apologizing to Torrant about calling him Nazi or some promise about the 155) but they could not put too much pressure on Sanchez.

So you think the no confidence motion will not pass?

Yes, there's quite a split between the Puigdemont linked independents and PDECat proper inside PDECat. And I guess ERC is also somewhat divided. But I don't think Sánchez even wants symbolic concessions.

I personally think there's roughly a 50-50 chance of the no confidence vote being successful.Really the only locked votes thus far are:

Yes

PSOE: 84 (duh)
Podemos: 67
Compromís: 4
NCa: 1

No

PP: 134 (duh)
UPN: 2
Foro Asturias: 1
CC: 1

So it's all in the hands of Cs, PNV and to a lesser extent the Catalan nationalists. Bildu is irrelevant. And they seem to want opposite things; PNV is scared of a new election as Cs will be the likely winner and they are a lot harsher on peripheral nationalism than PP and Rajoy while Cs wants one.

[Former President tack50]

What are the basic differences between PP and Ciudanos voters? I mean, after CC spilled out of Barcelona and some bigger cities.

According to the latest CIS poll (April 2018):

Cs performs much better among men than women, PP performs slightly better among women than men

PP voters skew very old, Cs voters are more dispersed by age but with a peak in the middle age vote

PP performs better in rural areas, Cs performs better in suburbs and urban areas

PP performs better among people with no studies or only primary school (which then again, skew older so it's probably a function of age). Cs performs better among people with higher studies.

PP performs better than Cs among retired people, "stay at home mums" and ties among farm workers. Cs performs better than PP among all other socioeconomic groups, but the best results for Cs are among small businessmen, administrative and service personnel, and students

PP beats Cs in the "Old middle class" vote. However, Cs wins easily among the "upper class" and the "new middle class" vote.

[Former President tack50]

Way too hard to tell. Cs' 2015 campaign was a trainwreck. 2016 was better but still not good.

So far it seems that Cs is bad at running campaigns. However their 2017 Catalan election campaign was really good, basically rallying all unionists behind them. But a Catalan election is very different from a general election.

In my opinion trying to predict how the campaign will go is impossible.

[Former President tack50]

The dominant impression is either Rajoy resigns today (and calls elections) or the PNV will vote "yes" tomorrow.

Unsurprisingly Cs priority is not ousting Rajoy and the corrupt PP. Rather electioneering and confronting Catalan separatists.

Rajoy can't call an election if he resigns. If he resigns, it's as if the election happened yesterday. So, consultations with the king, candidate (almost certainly Sánchez) and investiture vote (which this time only requires a simple majority, unlike a no confidence vote). If 2 months after the first vote there is still no PM, new snap election automatically called.

In the mean time, either PM Rajoy or deputy PM Soraya will be acting PM, but neither would have the ability to call an election.

I'm not sure which of the 2 would be the acting PM. Back in 1981 and the 23F coup, Suárez was the acting PM during the coup, not deputy PM Gutiérrez Mellado; until Calvo-Sotelo was elected. However according to some Soraya would be acting PM instead of Rajoy.

[Former President tack50]

PNV will support the no confidence vote. So unless Rajoy has 5-6 moles inside PSOE, or PDECat or Podemos (which has an internal consultation ongoing though I seriously doubt the Podemos base will vote to keep Rajoy) unexpectedly vote no, it's over.

Only thing which could stop this now is Rajoy resigning. And at best it would mean an election on late August or early September. And at worst Sánchez still PM, but in like 2 weeks instead of tomorrow.

[Former President tack50]

So while the vote will succeed, there has to be new elections right? This coalition that is ousting Rajoy is even more built of chaos then the current 'government.'

Legally no, Sánchez could stay until Summer 2020. In practical terms yes, the coalition is very unstable. I'd expect a new election either this winter (late October) or possibly next summer after the EU ones.

[Former President tack50]

It's official now, Pedro Sánchez is PM-elect. Final result of the no confidence vote:

Yes: 180 (PSOE, Podemos, ERC, PDECat, PNV, Compromís, EH Bildu, NCa)
No: 169 (PP, Cs, UPN, Foro Asturias)
Abstentions: 1 (CC)

Some somewhat interesting sideffects:

Mariano Rajoy becomes the 3rd shortest lived PM after the 2 UCD prime minsters (Adolfo Suárez, Leopoldo Calvo Sotelo).

Similarly, Sánchez becomes the 1st PM to get there via no confidence vote (duh) and the 2nd "unelected" PM (after Calvo Sotelo).

Sánchez being elected also means that (at least for now) there will still be a large EU country with a left of center government. Had the vote failed, the largest EU country with a left of center government would have been Portugal (10.3 million).

If using US-style generations, Pedro Sánchez would be the first Gen X Prime minister (born 1972).

[Former President tack50]

It's official now, Pedro Sánchez is PM-elect. Final result of the no confidence vote:

Yes: 180 (PSOE, Podemos, ERC, PDECat, PNV, Compromís, EH Bildu, NCa)
No: 169 (PP, Cs, UPN, Foro Asturias)
Abstentions: 1 (CC)

Is that roll call procedure only for special occasions like this, or does parliament really not have electronic voting?

It does have electronic voting, however the roll call is apparently used in special occasions like this one, or like when electing a PM.

Similarly, secret ballots are used when electing the Congress president.

[Former President tack50]

Is there any chance he calls a new election?

In the very short term? (ie days or weeks). Probably not. In fact one of the promises he made was that he would call an election at some point, but not inmediately.

There's no way Sánchez is lasting until 2020 though. I'd say the next election will probably be in like Autumn 2019 at the latest.

[Former President tack50]

While the full Sánchez cabinet won't be presented until tomorrow, we do have at least 1 name fully confirmed.

Josep Borrell, PM candidate for the 2000 election, minister of public works under Felipe González and former speaker of the European parliament, will be Sánchez's minister of foreign affairs.

He is also famous for his speeches at the 2 large unionist rallies in Catalonia, back when the issue was at its peak.

Borrell was interestingly the only former PSOE leader who supported Sánchez back on the primaries, and his own career has some similarities with Sánchez's; particularly his 2000 run, when he defeated the establishment candidate Almunia. Borrell had to drop out later and make Almunia the PM candidate as he was uncomfortable without having support from the establishment and a corruption scandal involving some of his colleagues appeared.

As for other stuff about the Sánchez cabinet, we also fully know that it will have the same number of  women and men, just like the Zapatero cabinets (funnily enough, González's first cabinet had 0 women whatsoever XD). He will apparently also recover the "Equality ministry" which was short lived under Zapatero's 2nd term. Finally, the number of ministries will probably be increased.

In any case though, all doubts will be solved tomorrow.

[Former President tack50]

Will Sanchez tackle constitutional reform?

What are the people's thoughts here about federalising Spain as a solution to the Catalonian Problem?

The first one no, no way Sánchez tackles constitutional reform. It's one of PSOE's projects but with such an unstable government there's no way he does that. Plus it would be very controversial and he lacks the numbers anyways (such a reform would need PP+PSOE at the very least)

As for federalising Spain, both PSOE and Podemos are in favour of that. However neither has developed their proposals. In PSOE's case they are split on whether regions should have financial autonomy (which would be harmful to PSOE's base in the poor rural south) and on whether that federalism should be symmetrical or assymetrical. And of course which places of Spain qualify as "nations" as opposed to mere "regions". Have heard even less from Podemos, other than that they want a plurinational Spain and that they accept the right for regions to become independent, which PSOE doesn't.

I guess secessionists and nationalists would probably vote for it but feel it's underwhelming unless it includes a referendum. And of course both PP and Cs are very much opposed.

And this also translates to polling. From the latest CIS poll (April 2018) here's support for expanding devolution or centralizing Spain by party:



So apparently centralism has more support than further federalism, but the status quo still beats both (though support for it is slowly declining iirc).

Interestingly, both PP and Cs have a majority in favour of further centralism, while PSOE has a majority for the status quo even though they are pushing for further federalism. And even in Podemos federalists only barely beat the status quo 36-35 for the main branch (their Catalan, Valencian and Galician semi-independent branches all have much better numbers).

By region we don't have any recient numbers, there are polls from 2015. In any case, federalists only beat centralists in the Basque Country, Catalonia, Navarra and the Balearic Islands iirc. Though centralists only were an overall majority of the electorate in Castille Leon and surprisingly Aragon.

And to answer your question about a constitutional assembly, that's never going to happen lol. Most likely is that PP-Cs start yelling "Sánchez will turn Spain into Venezuela!!!11!" and win. Not to mention that there's no real way to do that. I guess they could call a standard snap election and call it like that. But I don't think even Podemos would create a "constitutional assembly".

[Former President tack50]

Mariano Rajoy has announced his intention to leave politics and stop being leader of PP. He will shortly call an extraorinary party congress for him to be replaced.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180605/444120854458/mariano-rajoy-presidencia-pp-sucesion.html

In any case, it seems the frontrunners to replace Rajoy are probably former deputy PM Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría and regional president of Galicia Alberto Nuñez Feijoo. I'd say Feijoo would give more of a "renovation" ambient, but he has an infamous photo with Marcial Dorado, a drug trafficker. Soraya is probably too close to Rajoy and would give less renovation but still.

There is also the possibility of someone else winning instead though.

What I'm wondering is how they'll elect their new leader. Will Rajoy simply appoint someone and the party blindly accept it? (like how Fraga appointed Aznar and Aznar appointed Rajoy). Or will there be a contested congress?

[Former President tack50]

Today, PM Sánchez finally presented his entire cabinet. There will be 17 ministers. One of the more interesting things is that there will be 11 women and 6 men, actually a world record! So much for equality I guess XD

The other interesting thing is that this is quite a technocratic cabinet. Many ministers have experience on their related fields and there's a sizable amount of (nominal) independents (7), while there are few career politicians.

Anyways, here is the entire cabinet:

Prime Minister: Pedro Sánchez. Former MP for Madrid (2013-2016), secretary general of PSOE



Deputy Prime Minister and minister of equality: Carmen Calvo. Doctor in constitutional law, former minister of culture (2004-2007). Helped Sánchez when he ran for his old job, and helped negotiate article 155.



Minister of education and government speaker: Isabel Celaá. Former regional minister of education in the Basque Country (2009-2012).



Minister of Agriculture, fishing and alimentation: Luis Planas. Former regional minister of Agriculture in Andalucía (2012-2013). Ran against Susana Díaz in PSOE-A's regional leadership election. Has also had some agriculture related jobs in the EU.



Minister of foreign affairs, European Union and cooperation: Josep Borrell. Former speaker of the European Parliament (2004-2007). Former minister of public works under Felipe González (1993-1996). Failed 2000 PM candidate. He is also quite known for his unionist speeches in Catalonia.



Minister of Science, innovation and universities: Pedro Duque. An astronaut for the ESA and an aerospace engineer. Probably one of the most interesting ministers



Minister of culture and sports: Màxim Huerta. Journalist who worked for quite a while in a morning program. He has apparently written 5 books as well. Another interesting minister.



Minister of defense: Margarita Robles. Speaker of the PSOE parliamentary group. Another of the people who were behind Sánchez the entire time and part of his close group. Also a high ranking member of the ministry of the interior under González (basically "deputy minister") and a supreme court judge.



Minister of economics and business: Nadia Calviño. Economist and the head of the bugdet direction of the European Comission.



Minister of public works: Jose Luis Ábalos. Another of the closest group of Sánchez supporters. MP for Valencia.



Minister of the treasury: María Jesús Montero. Regional minister of the treasury under Susana Díaz (2013-2018), also regional minister of healthcare under various andalusian governments (2004-2013). She also has a degree in medicine.



Minister of industry, commerce and tourism: María Reyes Maroto. Regional MP in Madrid's regional assembly and speaker of the budget committee in Madrid's regional assembly.



Minister of the interior: Fernando Grande-Marlaska. Former judge of the Audiencia Nacional and member of the general council of the judiciary (appointed by PP interestingly!)



Minister of justice: Dolores delgado. A prosecutor specialized in fighting against yihadist terrorism. Member of the prosecutor's council.



Minister of territorial policy and public function: Meritxell Batet. Number 1 member of parliament for Barcelona. Former teacher of administrative law and of constitutional law at Pompeu Fabra university in Barcelona.



Minister of healthcare, consumption and social welfare: Regional minister of healthcare in the Valencian Community (2015-2018). She's also been an MP in Congress (2004-2015)



Minister of labour, inmigration and social security: Magdalena Valerio. Former Regional minister of labour (2005-2007); tourism (2007-2008) and justice (2008-2010) in Castille-La Mancha and former MP for Guadalajara (2011-2016)



Minister of ecological transition: Teresa Rivera. Former secretary of state of the environment and climate change, and former  head of the Spanish office of climate change (2004-2011)

[Former President tack50]

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This could reverse the rightward drift of the newspaper   

She is 67, retirement age in most countries. Is it normal to appoint people that old to such positions in Spain?

Well, Luis Cebrían, the owner of PRISA (the holding that has El País and other media like the radio station Cadena SER) reciently retired at age 73.

For another comparison, Pedro J. Ramirez, another famous journalist (former head of El Mundo and now head of El Español), is currently 66 years old and is still the boss of a newspaper.