Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

I missed this, but news from Catalonia: The CiU alliance has broken down after 37 years due to the independence issue (UDC opposes independence).

Yes, that happened past week. Sorry for not updating, but it'd be good that someone was paying attention. Thank you for mentioning the issue, CrabCake.

"The end of an era: Catalan nationalist bloc CiU breaks up after 37 years"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/06/18/inenglish/1434637443_661020.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Velasco]

The last poll conducted by CEO in Catalonia shows a downward trend in support to independence.  According to that survey 50% would vote "no" in an eventual referendum, while 42.9% would vote "yes" to independence. With regard to the March survey released by the same sociological institute, dependent on Catalan government, "yes" is 1.2% down and "no" increases 2%. On the elections scheduled in September, 58.1% will decide voting position depending on party proposals to confront the crisis, while 21.1% will decide depending on the relationship between Catalonia and Spain. Answers reflect that Artur Mas pretension to call elections as a plebiscite on independence is not getting through. The poll doesn't provide a vote estimation for the next Catalan elections because, according to CEO' s chief Jordi Arguelaguer, the break down of CiU and the reconfiguration in the left make it impossible. ICV and Podemos agreed recently running a join list in September (Joan Coscubiela, ICV deputy in the Spanish Congress, will stand as pre-candidate), as well Pablo Iglesias stated the alliance will work in the next general election.

Link to CEO poll (there's an abstract in English):

http://ceo.gencat.cat/ceop/AppJava/pages/home/fitxaEstudi.html?colId=5468&lastTitle=Bar%F2metre+d%27Opini%F3+Pol%EDtica+%28BOP%29.+2a+onada+2015

CEO released the "direct vote intention", that is raw polling data without further elaboration. In the Catalan elections CiU and ERC are tied at 13.3%, while Podemos comes third at 10.8%. As for the general election, Podemos comes first (18.1%) followed by ERC (13%), PSC (11%) and CiU (10.8%). The poll doesn't ask for CDC and UDC separately, nor asks for the join list between Podemos and ICV.

[Velasco]

Btw Velasco, has the indirect portion of the Senate been elected by the regions yet? Or is that done at some later date?

The Spanish Senate is an irrelevant legislative body and I usually don't pay too much attention. I checked the list of members returned by regions in the Spanish Senate website. The new Andalusian Parliament (elected in March 2015) has appointed 9 senators (PSOE 5, PP 3, Podemos 1)  Apparently the regions which held elections in May haven't elected their representatives. Probably they will be appointed in the next session of the respective regional legislatures, beginning in September.

PP doing fairly well in current polls. A hypothetical PP-C coalition could have a healthy majority. Greek effect?

I haven't been following last polls in detail. Which ones predict a PP-C's majority?

On average, I think the trend doesn't point to a result like that. I'm not sure if Greece will have an impact in the Spanish election (I tend to think that it'd be very limited, in any case).

The Wikipedia poll summary as of July 2015 says that PP is approx. at 26%, PSOE 23%, Podemos 20% and C's around 13%. The Electograph "poll of polls" gives the following result: PP 27.6%, PSOE 24.4%, Podemos 18.9%, C's 12.5%, IU 3.6%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Spanish_general_election,_2015#National

http://www.electograph.com/p/electograph-poll-of-polls.html

More important will be the repercussion of the next parliamentary election in Catalonia.

CDC (the Artur Mas party), ERC, pro-independence associations and elements of the 'civil society' will assemble a joint list. In case the joint independence list wins the election, which is very likely, the different parties and associations are committed to proclaim independence unilaterally within a period of 6 or 8 months. Probably that declaration of independence will have the support of the left-wing CUP in the next Parliament of Catalonia. The top candidate will be Raül Romeva, formerly in ICV and MEP until 2014. The former spokeswoman of the Catalan National Assembly (ANC) Carme Forcadell and Muriel Casals ( from Òmnium Cultural) will be the numbers two and three of that list. Artur Mas will be placed in the fourth place, but he's actually the candidate to be the head of the government. ERC leader Oriol Junqueras will be the number five.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/15/inenglish/1436951774_704766.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy stated that "there will be no Catalan independence"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/16/inenglish/1437061423_262494.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

At this point everything points to the continuation of the paralysis until the next Spanish election takes place and a new administration takes office earlier next year.

You can check last polls for the Catalan elections here:

http://www.electograph.com/search/label/A_Cat

Feedback/La Vanguardia (July 2015)

CDC 22% (32-34 seats), Catalunya, sí que es pot (CSP= Podemos+ ICV+EUiA) 16.5% (20-22), C's 16% (22), ERC 15% (22), PSC 9.6% (13), PP 7.3% (9-10), CUP 7% (9-10), UDC 4.2% (3-6).

*A joint list including all pro-independence forces would get 46.7%, according to Feedback. However, that assumption is not realistic because the CUP will run in its own.

GAPS / Òmnium Cultural (July 2015)

Joint list (CDC-ERC) 32% (52 seats), CSP 20% (26), C's 16% (20), PSC 9% (12), PP 9% (12), CUP 8% (10), UDC 4% (3).

GESOP/El Periódico (June 2015)

CDC 22.4% (33-35 seats), Podemos+ICV+EUiA+Procés Constituent 22.4% (30-31), C's 14.9% (19-20), ERC 12.9% (19-20), CUP 8.2% (11-12), PSC 7% (8-9), PP 6% (6-7), UDC 4.6% (6-7)

[Velasco]

OK, let's try a brief summary of the new regional governments.

Aragon:: Javier Lambán (PSOE) was elected Premier with the support of Podemos, the Aragonese Union (CHA) and IU, totalling 35 votes. PP, C's and the Aragonese Party (PAR) voted against the investiture, totalling 32 votes. Notably, C's spokeswoman Susana Gaspar deemed the deal between leftist forces in the regional legislature as a "pact with the Devil" The negotiation was difficult because Pablo Echenique (Podemos) felt vindicated to be premier, given that the purple party came only 1% behind the socialists in the regional election. Lambán heads a minority government which has 9 ministers (8 from PSOE and 1 from CHA). The new administration needs the support of Podemos and IU to pass legislation.

Asturias: Javier Fernández (PSOE), incumbent since 2012, is seeking to continue as regional premier. A deal between PSOE and Podemos was the only option for Fernández to get a majority in the investiture. However, the socialists and the purple party have a poor relationship in the region. Podemos rejected to vote for the socialist candidate for Mayor of Gijón, because of his involvement in suspected irregularities in the management of the port of El Musel. Gijón is the most populated city in the region; the mayoralty was retained by the right-wing regionalist FAC in minority. PSOE reached an agreement with the IU regional branch led by Gaspar Llamazares, which was approved by the IU membership today. The deal doesn't imply a coalition government; both parties agreed on specific measures (electoral reform, transparency law and a commission of inquiry on El Musel). PSOE (14) and IU (5) fall short from a majority in the 45 member regional legislature. Javier Fernández could be elected premier in a second vote, providing that Podemos (9) and C's (3) abstain. Rival candidate Mercedes Fernández (PP) only counts with the support of her party (11 seats) and Foro Asturias (FAC, 3 seats). The first investiture vote will take place this upcoming week.  

Balearic Islands: Francina Armengol (PSOE) was elected Premier with the support of Podemos and MÉS, a left-wing catalanist party. Podemos didn't join the regional government, which is comprised by 11 members from PSOE and MÉS. PSOE holds the premiership and gets 6 cabinet members, while MÉS gets 4 cabinet members including Deputy Premier Biel Barceló.

Canary Islands: Fernando Clavijo (CC) heads a coalition government with PSOE. CC gets the premiership and 6 cabinet members; PSOE gets 4 cabinet members including Deputy Premier Patricia Hernández. PSOE holds the presidency of the regional parliament.

Cantabria: Miguel Ángel Revilla of the Cantabria Regionalist Party (PRC) was elected Premier with the support of PSOE and the abstention of Podemos. The regional coalition government has 9 members: PRC gets the premiership and 4 cabinet members, PSOE gets 4 cabinet members including Deputy Premier Eva Díaz Tezanos.

Castile and León: Juan Vicente Herrera (PP) was reelected Premier in a second vote with the support of his party (42 seats) and the abstention of C's (5). PSOE (25), Podemos (10), IU (1) and the León regionalist UPyL (1) voted against the investiture. PP will govern in minority, trying to reach agreements on specific measures with C's in order to pass legislation.

Castile-La Mancha: Emiliano García-Page (PSOE) was elected Premier with the support of his party (15 seats) and Podemos (2). PP (16) voted against the investiture. García-Page, a former Mayor of Toledo, will govern in minority replacing María Dolores de Cospedal, the powerful and controversial woman who remains as secretary general of PP.

Extremadura: Guillermo Fernández Vara (PSOE) was proclaimed Premier with the support of his party (30 seats) and Podemos (6). PP (28) and C's (1) abstained. In the investiture, the Podemos spokesman said that Fernández Vara's discourse was increasingly resembling theirs, stating that Podemos will support the new minority government as long as it's committed with "the defence of the civil rights against the austerity policy" of the Spanish government. Fernández Vara promised that Extremadura will be the first region "free of evictions".

Madrid: Cristina Cifuentes (PP) was elected Premier on June 24 with the support of her party (48 seats) and C's (17). PSOE (37) and Podemos (27) voted against. Cifuentes will govern in minority and C's spokesman Ignacio Aguado warned her that they will be vigilant on the implementation of the 76 point agreement signed between the blue and the orange parties.

Murcia: Pedro Antonio Sánchez (PP) was elected Premier with the support of his party (26 seats) and C's (4). PSOE (13) and Podemos (6) voted against the investiture. PP and C's reached an agreement similar to that in Madrid. The newly elected premier has to face a lawsuit on alleged faults including prevarication, embezzlemen of public funds, fraud against administration and falsification of public documents. Mr Sánchez promised to resign in case he's formally charged.

Navarre: Uxue Barkos (Geroa Bai, independent) will be elected Premier in the investiture session that will take place tomorrow morning. Geroa Bai, EH Bildu, Podemos and IU signed a deal on past Friday. According to the signatories, the agreement has a "historical value" and "lays the foundations for change". The new government will have 2 deputy premiers: Manu Ayerdi (Geroa Bai, PNV) will assume the management of economic policies and independent Miguel Laparra, an university professor, will be in charge of social policies. The government will have 9 cabinet members, chosen by Mrs Barkos between the candidates proposed by the different parties. The appointment of María José Beaumont (EH Bildu) with a portfolio including Interior has created controversy, given past links between the abertzale left and ETA.

The Navarrese mess, probably one of my last contributions here:



La Rioja: Ignacio Ceniceros (PP) failed to pass the first investiture vote which took place on July 1, but was elected in a second vote on July 3 without a majority. Ceniceros was supported by his party, while C's regional parliamentarians abstained.

Valencia: Ximo Puig (PSOE) was elected Premier with the support of Compromís and Podemos and took office on June 27. The new regional government is comprised by the Premier, a Deputy Premier (Mónica Oltra, Compromís) and 8 cabinet members (3 PSOE, 3 Compromís and 2 independents).

[Velasco]

Any chance if CSP gets a good second place or first of getting to form government with support of PSC, CUP and C's?

It's totally impossible to see the CUP siding with C's and PSC. Another question would be that CSP had chances of placing first as BComú did in Barcelona, but that is not going to happen. The joint CDC-ERC list*, that is going to be called "Juntos por el Sí" (something like "Together for Yes"), is going to win in all likelihood and Artur Mas will remain as premier, but probably the sovereignist ticket will fall short from a majority. However, there will be a likely pro-independence majority in the next Catalan Parliament adding the CUP. In order to give some legitimacy to an unilateral declaration of independence, it would be important that the joint list and the CUP add a majority of the popular vote (and maybe they will fall short). The CSP is in favour of a referendum, as well the UDC, but I don't see the left and the party of Duran i Lleida supporting the projects of Artur Mas. C's, PSC and PP are against to call a referendum.

*Former FC Barcelona coach Pep Guardiola will run in the "Together" ticket placing in the last place of the list:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/20/inenglish/1437408521_513427.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I have changed the thread title, since the local and regional elections of May 24th have obviously already taken place.

OK, well done. You will have to decide where to place the Catalan elections scheduled in September: here or in a single thread.

[Velasco]

More fun from Catalonia.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/21/inenglish/1437471078_289683.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Steps toward the declaration of independence:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Velasco]

What would the Spanish government do if Catalonia actually issued a UDI?

Probably the central government will refer resolutions adopted by the Parliament of Catalonia, in order to implement the "road map" to independence, to the Spanish Constitutional Court. This has been the modus operandi of the Rajoy administration to date. But the leaders of the secessionist bloc now threaten with issuing the UDI immediately, in case the Spanish government puts obstacles. At this point, we enter into uncharted territory. Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution says that if a region is not abiding its obligations under the existing legal framework, the central government can take the "necessary measures" to enforce said obligations. Such "measures" would be implemented  after lodging a complaint to the regional premier and, in case the request is not granted, they need the approval of the Spanish Senate. The problem is that article has never been implemented and "measures" are not developed in the text. Jurists don't coincide in the interpretation of the article, but say the Spanish government should only intervene as a last resort and advocate for the principle of minimum intervention. The consequences of a suspension of the regional autonomy, for instance, are totally unpredictable. A professor of constitutional law says that implementing article 155 would be the end of the current model of regional autonomy.

Do the ERC and CUP want a greater Catalonia (with the Balearics, Valencia etc) or do they recognise that as impronable.

On paper, both want the Països Catalans ("Catalan Countries"). In practice, it's possible that they see the Greater Catalonia as a long term project. It's something like Euskal Herria (the union of Euskadi, Navarre and the French Basque Country).

The best solution is to divide Spain into Aragon and Castile in permanent personal union.

Spain was a personal union of crowns under the Hapsburgs. It was a very disfunctional model. By 1640 revolts erupted in Portugal, Andalusia and Catalonia. Catalans call the uprising against the minister of Felipe IV (the Count-Duke of Olivares) Guerra dels Segadors and the Catalan anthem refers to those events. For sure Felipe VI doesn't want a repetition of history, so I don't think he's going to send the Army.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_Revolt

Btw, Felipe VI and Artur Mas met recently. According to Miguel Ángel Revilla, premier of Cantabria, the King told him that the attitude of Artur Mas is "irreconcilable". No room for negotiation, apparently.   

[Velasco]

Sorry, but the king cannot use the army. He's the supreme commander of the armed forces, but Spain is a constitutional monarchy and that title is merely symbolic: the Spanish government holds the executive power. On the other hand, sending the army would be the surest way to lose Catalonia. After the revolt in the XVII century there was a complicated conflict involving France and several battles, but Catalonia returned to Spain basically through negotiation... except the Roussillon and part of the Cerdagne, a patch of the Catalan Countries which was lost to the French neighbours.

[Velasco]

There's an estimation for the Parliament of Catalonia released by Público.

Junts pel Sí (CDC+ERC) 39.2% 59 (-3)* seats

Catalunya Sí que es Pot (Podem+ICV+EUiA) 17% 23 (+10) seats

Ciutadans (C's) 15.7% 21 (+12) seats

PSC 7.6% 10 (-10) seats

CUP 7.2% 10 (+7) seats

PP 6.7% 9 (-10) seats

UDC 3.6% 3 (-6) seats

*Currently CDC 37, ERC 21 and DC 4. The latter (Democràcia Catalana: "Catalan Democracy") is a splinter of the UDC

The secessionist bloc (Junts pel Sí+CUP) adds 46.4% of the vote and 69 seats (majority 68). The anti-secessionist parties (C's, PSC and PP) add 30% of the vote and 40 seats. The "Third Way" parties (CSP, UDC) 20.6% and 26 seats.

In other news, the map of regional governments is already completed. Socialist Javier Fernández was elected premier of Asturias in a third vote. Uxue Barkos was proclaimed premier of Navarre.  

[Velasco]

King Felipe VI spoke before a group of newly appointed judges in Barcelona, stating that respect for the law is "unavoidable" in a democratic regime. Premier Artur Mas attended the event, but he didn't get the hint.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/23/inenglish/1437659569_325845.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Raül Romeva, the top candidate of the "Together for Yes" ticket, states the agreement reached between CDC, ERC and civic associations didn't make explicit that Artur Mas will be the head of a "national concentration" government that proclaims the independence of Catalonia. CDC officials denied that claim; according to deputy premier Neus Munté everything is spoken and Mas will continue exercising a leading role in the secessionist process at the head of the government. 

The Guardia Civil arrested three members of the Sumarrocas, an important business family linked to the Jordi Pujol clan, this morning in Barcelona. They are charged with the payment of illegal commissions to the mayor of Torredembarra (a coastal town in Tarragona province) of the Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC). The judge is investigating offences against the public administration, organised criminal group and money laundering. Joaquín Sumarroca, the head of the Sumarroca clan, was co-founder of the CDC together with Jordi Pujol. 

[Velasco]

It seems like the polls still disagree about the faith of Podemos. TNS-Demoscopia's two July polls have had them at 19.1 and 18.6%, whereas this GAD3 poll has them on 15.0% and Celeste-Tel has them on 13.1%. In addition, it must be quite hard to translate the percentages into votes. A 1 or 2 point percentage difference could potentially make a whole lot of difference in relation to the seats since seats are not proportional on the national level.

It's important to watch at the average polling. GAD3 and Celeste-Tel are usually underestimating Podemos, whereas Metroscopia and others tend to overestimate new parties like C's. On average Podemos is approx. at 18%. Seat allocation is only approximate because, as you say, it's hard to translate percentages into seats. Spain has 52 constituencies, corresponding to the provinces and the two autonomous cities. Most of provinces elect few seats and allocation is not proportional to vote share. On the one hand, the big parties (traditionally PP and PSOE) benefit from the system. On the other hand, peripheral nationalists and regionalist parties are relatively best represented than third national forces, because the support of the first is concentrated in a few provinces.

[Velasco]

I don't know. A good performance in Catalonia might boost Podemos and C's as well. It's hard to predict. By the way, Catalunya Sí es Pot has already a candidate. No time to go into details now. On the other hand, PP leader in Catalonia Alicia Sánchez-Camacho is about to leave and the Rajoy's party lacks a candidate right now. Some rumours point to former mayor of Badalona, the controversial Xavier García Albiol. I have a very  low opinion of xenophobes, so I hope PP's Supreme Head picks another candidate.

[Velasco]

Electograph "poll of polls" as of July 20:

http://www.electograph.com/p/electograph-poll-of-polls.html

Metroscopia poll released today by El País

PSOE 23.5%, PP 23.1%, Podemos 18.1%, C's 16%, IU 5.6%

[Velasco]

Strange war on royal portraits in the Barcelona City Hall.

Chapter 1: Barcelona City Council removes bust of King Juan Carlos from chamber

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/24/inenglish/1437722628_871968.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Chapter 2: PP hangs King Felipe’s portrait in Barcelona City Council chamber

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/24/inenglish/1437733354_176896.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Velasco]

La Vangardia releases a practical guide of parties, platforms, coalitions and entities currently existing in Catalonia. It's useful to navigate the Catalan labyrinth:

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20150726/54434042593/diccionario-entender-nuevo-mapa-politico-catalan-27s.html

[Velasco]

Most Catalans see a clash with Madrid inevitable, says Metroscopia:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/27/inenglish/1437987674_716070.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Artur Mas presented today his model of a tax agency for an independent Catalonia.

PSC leader and candidate Miquel Iceta states there won't be a suspension of the Catalan autonomy; in case the Parliament of Catalonia votes UDI, the Constitutional Court would set the declaration aside and that is all. Iceta is aware that Catalan socialists are going to perform badly. The PSC has faced several splits in its sovereignist wing which have approached ERC, a party that aspires to take the space of Catalanist socialdemocracy. Hence, PSC aspires to be "indispensable" to conform a leftist government. Even that sounds unrealistic in the present context. On her part, PP leader Alicia Sánchez-Camacho still doesn't make clear if she's going to repeat as candidate. Polls predict a downfall for the conservative party, with many voters switching to C's. The orange party runs with Inés Arrimadas as candidate; she's the Albert Rivera's lieutenant in the parliamentary group. The different forces in Catalunya Sí que és Pot (CSP) agreed to nominate Lluis Rabell as their candidate, after having failed to convince Arcadi Oliveres (who is economist and head of the Procés Constituent political movement). Lluis Rabell has been the head of the federation of neighbourhood associations in the city of Barcelona and supported actively the candidacy of Ada Colau in the local elections. An article in El País describes him as an "educated activist" born in El Raval, he was formerly in EUiA (the Catalan branch of IU), has a "trotskyst background", a "classical political culture" and is a long time activist. Rabell, who is translator and interpreter, has a "consensual profile, able to unblock tense and bitter meetings", says the article. The CSP candidate states that he's not independentist, but voted "yes-yes" in the proxy referendum held in November because he's angry at the Spanish government, which has treated Catalonia very badly in his opinion. Today in El Periódico, Lluis Rabell says that next election will be a choice between "amnesia" and "cleaning up", I guess in allusion to the multiple corruption scandals around Artur Mas' CDC and other parties. On the other hand, Procés Constituent rejected in an assembly joining the CSP coalition (comprised by Podemos and ICV-EUiA). As a result, economist Vicenç Navarro (who co-authored an economic draft for Podemos) left the movement, which seemed to be divided between the advocates of joining the CSP and a secessionist wing closer to the CUP. Finally, UDC candidate Ramon Espadaler promises to lead a "revolution of common sense" (seny in Catalan language), getting away from the secessionism of Artur Mas and the inmobilism of Mariano Rajoy. "Our prudence won't make us traitors and our patriotism won't make us imprudent", he said.

[Velasco]

General election poll released today.

TNS Demoscopia / Antena 3

[Velasco]

It may be farfetched conclusion but I think that there is a place for multi-regional party which will be to the right from PP and serve as an eventual ally (Portuguese variant) for them.

The right wing of PP is very right wing. Hard to see any space out there - unless you are thinking of a xenophobic populist party with anti-neoliberal/pseudo-leftist economic policies. Not sure how that combo would play in Spain, but it might work. Still, such a party would not be an easy ally for PP.

PP actually had a split in its right wing called Vox Party, led by Santiago Abascal and former MEP Alejo Vidal Quadras. The latter failed to win a seat in the EP elections by a few thousand votes. Since then, Vox has failed miserably in subsequent local and regional elections. Vox chairman Santiago Abascal ran as top candidate for the Madrid Regional Assembly: the list got 1%. Ergo, there's no life outside PP for a hardcore right-winger. Also, Spanish far-right parties (Falange, Democracia Nacional, España 2000, etc) have been always a joke. Only Plataforma per Catalunya (PxC) had some success in the 2011 local elections, but now the support for the bunch founded by Josep Anglada has vanished. PxC is virtually disappeared in Catalonia and Anglada himself was expelled from the party due to "deficient" management. In fact, PxC was like his personal enterprise: Anglada managed local branches like franchises . Anglada is a former member of Fuerza Nueva with links to Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders. There's no room for a xenophobic far-right populist party in Spain, basically because xenophobic feelings are not widespread in the country. In other words, most of Spaniards don't see immigrants as the main source of troubles and don't blame them for the economic situation. Of course Spain is not free of xenophobia, but it's a localised phenomenon. We have examples of xenophobic mayors like Xavier García Albiol (PP), who governed Badalona between 2011 and 2015. The former PP mayor of Vitoria made some controversial statements bordering that feeling; as well in past local elections PP distributed some xenophobic leaflets in Barcelona. On the other hand, the anti-neoliberal discourse is monopolised by Podemos and IU, as well by other left-wing regional parties (CUP, Bildu, AGE in Galicia, etc) that are miles away from xenophobia.

The only possible ally for PP is actually C's, a party that is more 'liberal' and centrist than PP. It's already posted that C's has controversial stances (at least in this country) on the issue of granting healthcare benefits to irregular immigrants. They say it's unsustainable; PP took back medical cards for irregulars but later allowed them to receive emergency healthcare, making the orange party look radical. However, there's a difference between that and the rhetoric of Marine Le Pen. Both C's and the Vox Party are pro-EU.  

[Velasco]

Alicia Sánchez-Camacho announced this morning thatXavier García Albiol has been nominated PP candidate in Catalonia. "García Albiol has proved his worth as Mayor of Badalona. He's a good person", said Sánchez-Camacho. As for the candidate, García Albiol said he represents "a project beyond ideologies" and asked for the cooperation of all Catalans because "we have a lot at stake on September 27".

Xavier García Albiol is aged 47 and is two meters high. Formerly he played in Juventut, a club of the Spanish basketball league located in Badalona. He became known in Spanish politics because of the harsh policies against immigrants he implemented as mayor. He has made very harsh statements against two communities in particular: Romanian Gypsies and Pakistani. According to him the Roma are "a plague that came here to commit crimes", while the Pakistani are characterised by their habit of eating bad meat. In this year's local campaign he promised "cleaning" Badalona, a town in metropolitan Barcelona populated by more than 200k people. Badalona has been historically a left-wing stronghold (PSUC in 1979, PSC between 1983 and 2011). García Albiol came first in the 2015 elections, but he was ousted from mayoralty by a pact between leftist parties. He was replaced by Dolors Sabater (Badalona en Comú), a teacher and social activist who was member of Òminium Cultural, an independentist association that promotes Catalan language and whose chairman Muriel Casals runs in the Together for Yes ticket.    

[Velasco]

Sigma Dos / Tele Cinco

PP 28.8%, PSOE 24.2%, Podemos 20.3%, C's 11.1%, IU 4.2%

http://www.telecinco.es/informativos/nacional/Encuesta-Mediaset_Espana-Sigma_Dos-intencion_voto_julio_0_2026500444.html

The pollster is still asking for CiU, but don't take that into account. Convergence and Union is dead and buried.

[Velasco]

Euskobarómetro poll for the Basque Country (election scheduled next year):

PNV 33.5%, EH Bildu 23.1%, Podemos 15.1%, PSE-EE / PSOE 14.1%, PP 8.1%, Others  5.7%

http://www.ehu.eus/documents/1457190/4342183/Estimacion_Mayo15.pdf


Journalist Antonio Baños has been elected to top the CUP-Crida Constituent list in the next Catalan elections. Baños is not a CUP activist, he's member of an independentist association called Súmate ("Join") comprised by Spanish-speaking people. The newly elected candidate promises three things: "Win", "Disobey" and "Build". Baños explained that they will disobey "to define the breaking point with the Spanish state and all the powers that have taken us under their force" and "to fight the fascism, racism and xenophobia that have came onto the campaign". He regrets the appointment of Xavier García Albiol as PP candidate, whom the CUP will fight "from the street". He also stated that they will "rebuild capitalist schemes" and "the connection between economy and production". "We will build the Països Catalans (Catalan Countries)", stressed Baños.

For sure Xavier García Albiol will introduce a factor of further polarisation in the Catalan campaign. I don't know if his appointment will succeed in halting the vote drain between PP and C's. On the one hand, Albiol is the PP politician in Catalonia with higher level of knowledge and he's the kind of xenophobe populist that performs well in the face-to-face. PP might be seeking former PxC voters in metropolitan Barcelona, a type prone to abstain in regional elections. On the other hand, the xenophobic drive of the PP in the local campaign in Catalonia worked badly outside Badalona. 

[Velasco]

Mr Mariano Rajoy reviews his tenure and sends a message to Catalan secessionists.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/31/inenglish/1438352284_257740.html

"Catalonia will never be independent in any way"

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Spain has a bright economic future, providing that Spaniards make the correct choice:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

But corruption stands in the way:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Obviously the message of complacency conveyed by Mariano Rajoy has been challenged by opposition leaders. Pedro Sánchez (PSOE) says that Rajoy is unable to provide "a response to the crisis" and is "accomplice of corruption", as well "the best ally of Artur Mas" because of his "immobilism" and inability to dialogue. Regarding to that, Catalan premier Artur Mas said that Rajoy has been unable to seat at a table to discuss the "democratic aspirations of the Catalan people". Podemos spokepersons stated that Rajoy sketched "an unreal country". Alberto Garzón (IU) said that improving of macroeconomic indicators is due to the "expansionary" measures implemented by Draghi and the ECB, as well considered Rajoy's balance "pure fantasy" stressing that "we are a country in social emergency that needs policies to create employment". Albert Rivera (C's) considers that Rajoy heads a worn out government lacking of a project for the future, saying that is inappropriate talking about a "triumphal" end of term given "the worrying situation of families and  self-employed workers", "middle class has been fractured and broken" during his tenure and there's the highest level of inequality of the present democratic period. As for the Catalonia, Rivera accused PP and PSOE of neglecting the region: "PP left Catalonia to the Pujol clan and Zapatero to (former ERC leader) Carod Rovira". Rivera refused to comment an offer made by PP candidate Xavier García Albiol, who stated to be "open" to reach governance pacts with C's and other anti-separatist parties after the Catalan elections. In other news, CSP candidate Lluis Rabell stated that if Catalonia secedes without the "necessary complicity" it would not be better treated than Greece by the EU. Rabell considers that if the Catalan elections are the prelude of political changes in Spain, "a window of opportunities" would be open to celebrate the Catalan referendum.

[Velasco]

Artur Mas calls elections in Catalonia:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/08/03/inenglish/1438609838_472058.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Velasco]

CIS July survey released today (April survey in brackets):

PP 28.2% (25.6%), PSOE 24.9% (24.3%), Podemos 15.7% (16.5%), C's 11.1% (13.8%), IU 3.7% (4.8%)

http://datos.cis.es/pdf/Es3104mar_A.pdf

[Velasco]

I thought Unio was anti-independence, hence why they split with the CDC and broke up CiU?

Unió and CDC parted ways because the latter turned to pro-independence stances in the last years, while the UDC stands where CiU used to be traditionally. Tension between both coalition partners comes from the beginning of the independence drive, approx in 2010. UDC tried to keep the coalition with CDC because it's a minor party with little electoral chances. However, plans for an unilateral declaration of independence were too much for UDC. Also, Artur Mas and the CDC radicalised senior staff and grassroots wanted to get rid of their partners. Duran i Lleida et alii are considered "traitors" by many people in Convergència. On the other hand, corruption affairs around CiU played a role, especially the Jordi Pujol scandal. Artur Mas desired to refund or reconvert his party, founded by Pujol, whose HQs are currently seized by judiciary. There's a pro-independence faction in UDC that splitted with the breaking up of CiU; now they are called Democrats of Catalonia (DC) and joined the Together for Yes alliance.