Spanish elections and politics

[Former President tack50]

Well, there have been more developments.

On the Cifuentes scandal thing not much unfortunately other than Cifuentes falling into lots of contradictions. I hope she doesn't get away with it but instead her contradictions force her to resign like Soria.

However the big development is in Catalonia.

Yesterday was the vote on Jordi Turull's candidacy for regional president. And in a surprising turn of events, CUP decided to abstain instead of voting in favour! This means that the vote failed, 64 yes, 65 no, 4 abstentions, 2 absent (Carles Puigdemont and Antoni Comín, both in Brussels).

Today the meeting with the judge happened, intended for the judge to revise 6 cases. However one of the ones who were supposed to be there, Marta Rovira (who was the head of ERC during the campaign since Junqueras was in jail), decided to self-exile herself in Switzerland!

So the remaining 5 were sent to prision, including Jordi Turull himself, under a very easy "risk of fleeing" charge. The other 4 were:

Former president of the Catalan parliament Carme Forcadell
Former regional minister "of foreign affairs" Raul Romeva
Former regional minister of territory Josep Rull
Former regional minister of labour Dolors Bassa

It seems that tomorrow's second round (which would have failed anyways) will have to be cancelled since Jordi Turull will be in jail. However this still counts as the start of the countdown to a new election. So if they don't get someone elected before the 22nd of May, there will be a new election called for the 15th of July. Yay! ^/s

And of course this means that Rajoy won't be able to pass a budget since PNV has said that they won't even negotiate until article 155 is lifted, which won't happen until there's a "regional government according to law".

[Former President tack50]

Rajoy has finally presented his 2018 bugdet. Quite late but whatever.

He has also done a deal with Cs so that they support the budget.

However it is not expected to pass in its current form since PNV has said they won't even sit to negotiate anything until article 155 is lifted. As for the Canarians, CC has said that if everything goes well they will probably support it, while NC refuses to negotiate until PP has the support of PNV (they want to be the magic 176th MP)

Another possibility could be for PSOE to abstain, but I don't think that could be sold by Sánchez. It won't make the old guard love him and it would be a big betrayal of his base, who voted him on his "no is no" pledges.

Important measures included in the budget negotiation between PP and Cs are

Raising minimum and widow pensions by 2%
30-60€ tax cut for pensioners earning between 1000 and 1200 €
Negative fiscal credit for pensions between 600 and 1000€
Paternity leave to be made 1 week longer
1000€ help for parents with kids 0-3 years old
Salary compliment for 600 000 young people, to be paid with EU funds
500 million € for policemen and Guardia Civil to earn the same as their regional counterparts (mossos, ertzainza)

[Former President tack50]

We haven't had polls for a while, here's a new one:

Sigma Dos for El Mundo



I guess we'll soon talk again about the "sorpasso"? XD

[Former President tack50]

Yet another new poll, this time from

Sociométrica for El Español



2 consecutive polls with PSOE at less than 20%. Bad news for Pedro Sánchez.

[Former President tack50]

What's with the mini Vox bump?

It's actually a drop believe it or not! They were at 2% in November, 1.7% in January and now at 1.5%

I wouldn't trust the percentage much though, at least for small parties, just the seat count. 0.5% for CC for example is also somewhat suspicious IMO

Thing is, Sociometrica are the only ones asking for Vox (barely any pollsters ask for parties smaller than PNV or PDECat to begin with). So it's the only reference we will have until the EU parliment election I'd say.

[Former President tack50]

It's a bit old, but there has been a corruption scandal affecting PSOE and Compromís in the Valencian community. Not to the scale of PP's Gurtel probably, but still will probably harm them quite a bit, PP and Cs will almos surely attack them on that.

We are starting to get some polls about the regional elections of 2019. Anyways, here's the Madrid poll

Sociométrica for El Español, Madrid regional election

5% threshold, 1 at large constituency



With this result Cs would be the strongest party and could choose their coaltion partner between PP and PSOE. IU (if they run alone) would barely get over the threshold and make a comeback. Vox gets 3.4% which is under the threshold, but in a general election would give them 1 seat (then again this pollster is an outlier). Everyone down except Cs and IU

The Cifuentes scandal probably helped them a lot.

[Former President tack50]

And speaking about Madrid, regional president Cristina Cifuentes went today to the regional assembly to explain herself and her master's degree scandal. Her explanation was far from good.

And inmediately after the parliament session was over, PSOE inmediately said that they'll present a no confidence vote. Podemos has already said that they'll support it no matter what.

So now it's all about Cs, whether they side with PP and Cifuentes or with PSOE and kick her out, 1 year before the regional elections. Or maybe Cifuentes resigns anyways, remember that we already saw a very similar scenario unfold in Murcia last year.

Also, it would be quite ironic if Cifuentes is taken down by falsifying her master's degree, and her replacement being former eduaction minister and university professor Angel Gabilondo (PSOE's leader in Madrid) XD

[Former President tack50]

Tack, have there been any regional polls from Valencia recently?

Not really. The newest polls are from September 2017. So more than 6 months old.

Still if you want them here they are, alongside even more outdated polls:

https://www.electograph.com/search/label/A_Val

[Former President tack50]

And Puigdemont has been freed! German justice has rejected to extradite Puigdemont for rebellion and has freed Puigdemont under a 75 000 € bail. He might still be extradited to Spain, as the corruption and public fund misappropiation charges have been accepted, but the rebellion charge was dismissed.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180405/442207871883/puigdemont-libre-descarta-rebelion.html

In any case good news for secessionists. Not sure if Puigdemont will try to flee but still.

[Former President tack50]

Sure, he legally can't flee but there's nothing technically stopping him other than the fact that most countries would inmediately arrest him anyways.

As for corruption, the alleged "corruption" is the fact that he used public money to pay for the referendum. So no, secessionists won't care. I think the official charge is public fund misuse

[Former President tack50]

Metroscopia strikes again! 3 way tie for last place!



Further details (vote transfers, evolution, approval ratings, some extra questions)

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/04/06/media/1523031908_175487.html

[Former President tack50]

Also, for whoever asked for Valencia polls, apparently someone heard you and published one XD

It's a Podemos internal but whatever



So, PSOE wins and can easily repeat the PSOE-Compromís-UP deal, while a PSOE-Cs deal falls short of a majority, and same with PP-Cs.

[Former President tack50]

2 more new polls. First, the national one

Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es



And now a regional poll for Madrid, just while PP and regional President Cristina Cifuentes are in the middle of the masters degree scandal

It's a Cs internal but still noteworthy



Cs wins and gets to choose between PP and PSOE as their partner. IU makes a comeback and gets above the threshold. And a left wing government falls short.

And another internal for regional elections in Madrid, this time from PSOE

PSOE: 27.5%
Cs: 26.8%
PP: 26.3%
Podemos: 14.5%
IU: 2.5%

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/3310846/0/encuesta-interna-psoe-ganaria-madrid-pp-pierde-cinco-puntos-caso-cifuentes/

Cs ends up as kingmaker.

[Former President tack50]

We are getting some very weird candidates for the 2019 local elections.

First of all, PSOE asked the current mayor of Madrid, Manuela Carmena (Podemos) to be their candidate! Granted, Carmena is a moderate in Podemos and doesn't have great relations with the rest of the party but still, at this point PSOE is basically recognizing they don't have a good candidate in Madrid! They claim that it was an informal offer to recognize that she is doing a great job but still.

But there's an even weirder candidacy. That of Manuel Valls, former PM of France, to run for Barcelona mayor for Cs! Why would he do that? He has apparently participated in several unionist speeches and the like but still it's a really weird candidacy. Now, he is only considering, but the offer from Cs is there.

And yes, under EU law this would indeed be legal as any EU citizen can run and vote in local elections in whichever EU country they live in. So as long as he lives in Barcelona and registers, he would be ok. And he does have ties to Spain, after all he was born in Barcelona to a Spanish man (exiled in Paris because of the civil war) and had Spanish citizenship until 1982.

[Former President tack50]

Also, Cs almost breaking 30% in one poll, while PSOE overtakes PP! (granted this is a good pollster for Cs, and to a lesser extent PSOE, but still)

Simple lógica poll

[Former President tack50]

But there's an even weirder candidacy. That of Manuel Valls, former PM of France, to run for Barcelona mayor for Cs! Why would he do that? He has apparently participated in several unionist speeches and the like but still it's a really weird candidacy. Now, he is only considering, but the offer from Cs is there.

And yes, under EU law this would indeed be legal as any EU citizen can run and vote in local elections in whichever EU country they live in. So as long as he lives in Barcelona and registers, he would be ok. And he does have ties to Spain, after all he was born in Barcelona to a Spanish man (exiled in Paris because of the civil war) and had Spanish citizenship until 1982.

In France any EU citizen can run and be elected to city/town councils, but the top job (mayor) can only go to a French citizen. Isn't there such type of restriction in Spain?
It would be historical moment for the EU if it happens...

Nope, no such restriction in Spain. There are very few examples but they do exist. A Belgian became mayor of a small Andalusian town in 2015 for example

https://www.elplural.com/2015/06/28/un-guiri-alcalde-de-un-pueblo-andaluz-por-ciudadanos

And as of 2009 there were 2 foreign mayors (1 French, one Belgian) and 85 foreign councillors. (Brits being a large plurality)

http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2009/08/07/espana/1249643521.html

Granted I don't think Valls would become mayor even if Cs got a great result (most likely some sort of secessionists+Podemos coalition would win)

But yeah, if he did win and become mayor it would be huge news for the EU

[Former President tack50]

And we've got some new polls.

GESOP for El Periódico de Catalunya (national poll)





Celeste-Tel, regional elections in Madrid



Top 3 all within the margin of error, Podemos not too far behind, particularly if IU joins them.

SyM consulting, regional elections in Valencia



TSA for Canarias 7, regional elections in the Canary Islands



As expected, most likely the La Gomera regionalist ASG will act as kingmaker.

[Former President tack50]

#metoo has apparently arrived to Spain!

A bit of an introduction, a recient quite polemic gang rape case has caused a lot of protests since many people think the punishment was too lenient (9 years in jail, with one of the 3 judgest actually voting to clear them of all charges!)

In fact, they were cleared of actual rape, only found guilty of "sexual abuse" which carries a lesser punishment

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/26/protests-spain-five-men-cleared-of-teenagers-gang-rape-pamplona

This caused no es abuso, es violación (it's not abuse, it's rape), no is no and similar stuff to trend. And now #cuéntalo (tell it) is trending on twitter

http://www.lavanguardia.com/vida/20180428/443093670148/cuentalo-la-manada-protesta-mujeres-twitter.html

I thought the feminist strikes and the like were a 1 off thing, but I guess they are here to stay.

[Former President tack50]

PSOE internal for the Canary Islands regional elections



If this is a PSOE internal it's an absolute disaster for them. Also for CC and really good for Cs! In fact it's very weird for an internal to have the party that asked for it so low and still being published.

Hell, the Canarias7 public poll was actually a lot more PSOE friendly than their own internals!

Metroscopia-El Pais for Madrid regional elections



Futher information: https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/04/26/media/1524763200_673592.html

Vote transfers and approval ratings.

Great news for Cs and terrible news for PP. Keep in mind this was a poll done before Cifuentes resigned so it's already outdated but whatever.

Also, first time I've seen Vox mentioned on this pollster. Assuming they held 100% of their 2015 vote they'd get 2.6% of the vote. Well below the 5% threshold for the regional elections, but in a general election it would be close (they'd need 3%

[Former President tack50]

Tack, what is the reaction to the idea of Manuel Valls running, under Ciudadanos (C's), for Barcelona mayor? Does he have a chance?

There hasn't been a huge reaction actually!

As for whether he has a chance, I don't think so. Barcelona is quite a left wing city to begin with, it's only ever had a right of centre mayor once since Spain became a democracy.

Also he will have a hard time finding allies. PP will obviously support him but that's about it (in fact PP might even fall below the threshold! Though I still think they'll make it.

PSC would probably prefer a left wing mayor though if the campaign polarizes on nationalist issues then they might support Cs. But that's about it, and PP-Cs-PSC will not get a majority.

Honestly, I find Barcelona to be arguably the hardest city in Spain to predict, because of the very volatile environment (a campaign based on city issues would be radically different from one based on independence), the many parties involved and the 2 way axis (left-right and secessionist-unionist)

[Former President tack50]

Also, El País published an interesting study on the amount of women voters by party. Apparently Cs (which previously had a majority women electorate) is now the most masculine party!

Here are their results

Vote by party, for both men and women



% of the party voters that are men/women



So, by party, it seems that Cs and Podemos have somehow reversed. Cs had a majority female electorate and Podemos had a very masculinzed electorate. PP has always had an almost perfect 50-50 split. And PSOE is apparently the party of women, with 56% of PSOE voters being women!

Also, women make a larger percentage of undecideds and of people who don't plan on voting. Which is especially interesting since women actually did turn out more than men in 2016 (the electorate was 52% women in the 2015 election, not sure about 2016)

[Former President tack50]

How is Colau seen nowadays anyway? I liked her when she came in, but I haven't really caught up with her beyond her getting twisted in knots due to flegs.

I think she is seen as mediocre and as you said, getting twisted in knots because flegs.

The most recient thing I've heard about her is that she changed a street from "Admiral Cervera street" to "Pepe Rubianes street" (a comedian)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascual_Cervera_y_Topete
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pepe_Rubianes

During her speech, she called Admiral Cervera a fascist, which makes no sense, mostly since he died in 1909, well before fascism was even invented. He was also a decent general I guess, who fought in the Spanish American war. PP and Cs obviously protested. The Spanish Navy was also unhappy.

I'd say of all the Podemos mayors it's the one I dislike the most. My favourite would probably be Carmena (Madrid).

[Former President tack50]

Also, quite a bit of news and polling. First of all, today (technically yesterday as I write this but whatever) was the 2nd of May, Madrid's regional holiday. And so several Madrid polls were done. Here's a summary of all recient Madrid polls



We also got a poll from Valencia, a Compromís internal



And as for news, 2 big ones:

First of all, Basque terrorist group ETA has finally announced its official dissolution. Surprisingly there hasn't been much reaction, mostly indifference and the government saying that there should be no concessions, the terrorists have lost and the like.

And also, I think Catalonia is getting closer to getting a government. Because of some quirks involving European arrest orders and Puigdemont's stay in jail, JxCat+ERC now have a plurality, without needing CUP to vote in favour (an abstention would be enough). And they seem to be getting closer to a deal which would put Elsa Artadi as regional president of Catalonia. She does have a good CV, a Harvard doctor apparently and has worked quite a bit in economics. She is currently JxCat's speaker in parliament. She would also be Catalonia's first woman regional president for all what's worth.

Time is ticking after all, they have to elect a regional president before like the 29th of May or so.

[Former President tack50]

Electomanía published some very interesting maps about what if only certain age groups were allowed to vote. They don't add stuff we didn't know already (PP strong among the elderly, Podemos among the young), but they are still interesting









The general pattern seems to be:

PP: Extremely strong among the elderly, but very weak among the young

Podemos: A reverse PP, extremely popular among the young, but very weak among the elderly, to the point where it would get IU-like results

Cs: Strong in all age groups except pensioners where it takes a sharp dip

PSOE: Surprisingly, also strong among all age groups even though it takes a dip among the young.

[Former President tack50]

It's been a while since we last got some national polls, but finally we have one

CIS



Seems like we are headed for a 4 way tie in the short run, with Cs' rise slowing down, PP on free fall, PSOE stagnant or slightly down and Podemos slightly up.

Further questions, party, age and income crosstabs here: http://www.cis.es/cis/opencms/ES/NoticiasNovedades/InfoCIS/2018/Documentacion_3210.html

We also got some regional polls

NueveCuatroUno for La Rioja regional elections



3 way tie on top, Podemos down, the regionalist PR+ manages to get in after falling short for the first time ever in 2015. Cs would act as kingmaker.

Sigma Dos-Las Provincias for Valencian regional elections





Whether the current government gets a majority or not would be a tossup, a PSOE-Cs government also a possibility