Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

I note that Podemos now has entered every metropolitan regional council up for election, plus Canarias. Catalonia should follow in September. I guess only Ceuta and Melilla stand out in that regard. I don't know when Galicia is supposed to vote ? 2016 ?

Podemos is the only party present everywhere apart from PP and PSOE. Even C's failed to enter in a few places.

What are your thoughts on the incoming coalition talks that are going to take place in quite a number of cities and autonomies ? Can PSOE swallow propping up Podemos, or at least their various outfits, in the places where they won leadership of the left ?

Yes, Galicia and Basque country will hold elections next year. Podemos got into every regional parliament. C's failed to win seats in Castilla-La Mancha and the Canaries due to the shenanigans of their respective electoral systems. As for upcoming talks, both Podemos and C's are setting conditions to pact.

Podemos demands: 1) Zero tolerance with regard to corruption and 2) a 180 degree spin on cut policies. According to El País, Podemos makes ousting PP its priority in brokering deals:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/26/inenglish/1432632968_118593.html

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C's has set 10 conditions to pact. In the aftermath of the Sunday's election they warned PP: "no primaries, no support".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/25/inenglish/1432568221_353231.html

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As for Madrid, Manuela Carmena phoned PSOE candidate Antonio Miguel Carmona. The path toward an agreement between Ahora Madrid and PSOE seems clear and Carmena will be likely the next Mayoress of Madrid.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/25/inenglish/1432568422_087962.html

In Barcelona, pacts are more complicated due to the composition of the council and the lack of clear majorities. In any case, Ada Colau will govern the capital of Catalonia in minority. On election night, incumbent mayor Xavier Trias (CiU) conceded defeat and renounced to form alternative alliances. Colau already has a plan: new utility firm taxes and end to official cars:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/25/inenglish/1432563972_012218.html

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Navarra Podemos alliance with Bildu and Geroa Bai can provide a narrative legitimizing Ciudadanos' alliance with PP.

In any case, an alliance with Bildu will provide reasons to attack Podemos from Madrid media, PP and C's.

[Velasco]

Another observation : some time ago, it was said that Córdoba was the largest European city ruled by a communist-led left-wing coalition. I don't really know who got that title when IU lost the city in 2011, maybe Riga, still in Western Europe I don't know. Could we say, if PSOE props up Ahora Madrid like we can expect them to, that Madrid now owns that title ? Even if Ahora Madrid is a broad coalition of parties and citizens, it's still impulsed by Podemos and IU types.

No, Ahora Madrid is left-wing, but it's not a communist-led coalition. Manuela Carmena is an indepedent backed by Podemos. She's fairly moderate in attitude and opinions and a free rider (personally, I adore her). There is people coming from the purple party, IU dissidents, Equo and several social movements. In any case it's a coalition of the "new left".

[Velasco]

Madrid local election: results by district. Leading parties (right) and vote share by district for every party winning seats in the Madrid City Hall (left).

[Velasco]

I guess Velasco may have looked into the particular policies of C's in Cantabria, Aragón and the Canary Islands, but I cannot say much more.

Not really. Given that C's failed to get into the Canarian Parliament by not surpassing the 6% regional threshold (they got 5.93%), they'll have little to say down here. C's seems more 'flexible' and 'pragmatic' than UPyD in what regards dealing with the various centre-right regionalist parties. Also, the orange party has recruited members of several local outfits in the effort to expand territorial implementation, including the candidate in the Andalusian election. I have researched too little on that. There were cases that I found more strange, like certain former Falangista who was running in the local list of certain small municipality in Madrid. Rivera says that he doesn't believe in the "red and blue" divide, but that's something more serious than recruiting local politicians or former PP, PSOE or UPyD members. I mean, that's the kind of things that can ruin the C's claim that they are a "progressive" force. 

In the news, Aguirre seeks pacts to keep Podemos out of the City Hall:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/26/inenglish/1432662540_821073.html

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Aguirre is even willing to 'sacrifice' herself offering the post of Mayor to the socialist candidate, but Antonio Miguel Carmona rejected her offer. I've just heard him and he said that in neither case he's going to follow the example of Agustín Rodríguez Sahagún (that case was already mentioned in this thread). The PSOE candidate said that he would favour "the more progressive option" and confirmed that he talked with Manuela Carmena, but they haven't decided anything. His platform, that is really a neat work (more than 200 proposals), will be his pillar for negotiations.

According to El País, PP veterans would be planning to make way for new faces in the party:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/26/inenglish/1432658688_365684.html

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Tomorrow I'll post the map of Barcelona.

[Velasco]

Provisional results in Barcelona:

Barcelona en Comú-Entesa (BComú) 25.21% (+14,82%) 11 (+6)* councilors

Convergència i Unió (CiU) 22.72% (-6,01%) 10 (-4) councilors

Ciutadans (C’s) 11.05% (+9.11%)  5 (+5) councilors

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya– Moviment D’Esquerres (ERC–MES) 11.01% (+5,42%)  5 (+3) councilors

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) 9,63% (-12.51%) 4 (-7) councilors

Partit Popular (PP) 8.7% (-8,54%)  3 (-6) councilors

Candidatura D’Unitat Popular (CUP) 7,42% (+5.47%)  3 (+3) councilors

BComú wins 6 seats with regard to ICV-EUiA in 2011. In the previous election ERC ran in a list called Unitat per Barcelona allied with SI and Reagrupament, two small separatist parties. Moviment D'Esquerres (MES) is a PSC sovereignist split allied with ERC in this election.

*With regard to ICV-EUiA-Entesa in 2011. Entesa is a trademark registered by ICV and includes BComú and other "popular unity lists" where the Catalan ecosocialists ran. However, "popular unity lists" like Badalona en Comú (assembles Podemos, Procés Constituent and the CUP, but not ICV) are not included in the Entesa banner.

Results in Badalona:

PP 34.21% (+0.73%) 10 (-1) councilors

Badalona en Comú 17.51% (new) 5 (+5) councilors

PSC 14.09% (-12.96%) 4 (-5) councilors

ERC 10.98% (+7.28%) 3 (+3) councilors

CiU 7.94% (-4.61%) 2 (-2) councilors

ICV-EUiA-Entesa 6.68% (-2.22%) 2 (-1) councilors

Ciutadans 5.6% (+4.43%) 1 (+1) councilor

Results of the local elections in Catalonia:

CiU 21.49% (-5.63%), PSC 17.06% (-8.07%), ERC 16.39% (+7.41%), ENTESA* 11.78% (+3.35%), PP 7.54% (-5.14%), C's 7.43% (+6.21%), CUP 7.12% (+4.95%)

Despite the disastrous result in Barcelona, PSC was the second party in votes and retains with losses the provincial capitals of Tarragona and Lleida, as well many of the socialist strongholds in the Barcelona metropolitan region (l'Hospitalet, Cornellá, Santa Coloma, Terrassa). PP came first in Badalona, although Xavier García Albiol could be ousted by a coalition of opposition parties (in case they come to an agreement). CiU retains Girona.

[Velasco]

Gràcia is the most Catalanist of the Barcelona districts. Even though Vila de Gràcia is traditionally left-leaning (ICV used to poll strongly, ERC as of late), there are neighbourhoods that tend to favour CiU a bit more. In times Gràcia was a popular district, but nowadays its neighbourhoods are middle class (see income map). I suspect there has been certain gentrification in certain areas (should look into that). CiU beats BComú by a slight margin, ERC and the CUP get their best results in the city, while PSC and PP among their worst. Results in Gràcia district were as follows:

CiU 26.64% (-5.87%), BComú 23.89% (+10.83%), ERC 14.17% (+6.48%), CUP 11.67% (+7.91%), C's 7.57% (+6.19%), PSC 6.47% (-10.29%), PP 6.08% (-5.72%)

Traditionally the CiU and PSC vote in Barcelona followed reverse socioeconomic patterns. The richer the neighbourhood, the higher support for CiU and vice versa. Now things are much more complicated*, but still the best districts and neighbourhoods for CiU are the ones with the higher income (Sarrià-Sant Gervasi, Les Corts), while PSC does better in deprived areas which received immigration from other Spanish regions in past decades (Nou Barris, among others). The bad news for socialists is that they have lost the catalanista middle class and that their traditional base of support in the poorer city neighbourhoods switched to BComú and other parties to a lesser extent. Note that PP and C's patterns by district are very similar (higher support in the socio-economic extremes) and opposed to ERC and CUP patterns. BComú and PSC patterns are similar to each other, with the caveat that Ciutat Vella is the best district for BComú and Nou Barris the best for PSC.

Family income by neighbourhood in 2012 (100= Barcelona average):



*According to historian Joaquim Coll, election results show three dividing lines in Catalonia: territorial, linguistic and socioeconomic. On the one hand, there's a gap between the metropolitan/coastal Catalonia (more abstentionist and less supportive of nationalism) and the inland Catalonia (overwhelmingly nationalist). In the November 9 consultation on independence, inland counties (comarcas) turned out in greater numbers (48% of the roll) and voted massively for the purely separatist option ("yes-yes"), while in metropolitan/coastal counties turnout was only 27% and the "yes-yes" figures lower. As for the linguistic factor, it's correlated with sense of belonging. People who has Spanish as first language prevail in the metropolitan and coastal areas and use to identify themselves equally Spanish and Catalan: they are more loath to independence. People speaking Catalan as first language identify themselves as "more Catalan than Spanish" or "only Catalan": a majority of them support independence. Coll says that "language and origin are key to understand that we are confronted to an identity drive which tries to scale the wall of the plural senses of belonging, invoking a promise of social welfare with a leftist garment (...) by the moment with little success among the Catalans whom mainly speak Spanish and with origins in other parts of Spain" . On the socioeconomic factor, Coll talks about "the true alliance of classes behind the separatist drive in the context of the crisis that we are suffering". Remarks the contrast between two metropolitan municipalities nearby in space but far in socioeconomic composition: Santa Coloma and Sant Cugat del Vallès. Santa Coloma is a low income municipality north of Barcelona (pop 118,000) where PSC won a majority and both CiU and ERC failed to win councilors. Sant Cugat (pop 87,000) is amongst the richest Catalan municipalities. It's separated from Barcelona by the Tibidabo mountain. In Sant Cugat CiU won comfortably and the CUP came second, C's came third while PSC and PP got poor results.
 
"The Truncated Catalonia of Artur Mas" (Catalan)

http://cat.elpais.com/cat/2015/05/20/opinion/1432135472_321275.html

To make things even more complicated, it can be added to that triple divide the surge of BComú in Barcelona (and to a lesser extent the surge of similar lists in other municipalities). The list topped by Ada Colau has made significant inroads in the Barcelona's catalanista electorate, although its main base of support is in the lower income neighbourhoods. The separatist CUP has made inroads in some working-class metro Barcelona municipalities as well.

Results in Santa Coloma de Gramenet:

PSC 40.68% (14 councilors), Som Gramenet (Podemos, CUP) 18.52% (6), C's 11.5% (3), ICV-EUiA-Entesa 7.85% (2), PP 7.77% (2), ERC 4.76% (-), CiU 3.63% (-)

Results in Sant Cugat del Vallès:

CiU 36.97% (11 councilors), CUP 15.2% (4), C's 12.92% (3), ERC-MES 11.21% (3), ICV-EUiA-Entesa 6.61% (2), PSC 6.47% (1), PP 6.27% (1)

In the Sarrià-Sant Gervasi district (on the Barcelona's side of the Tibidabo) CiU topped the poll (41.49%), C's got its best result coming second (15.48%). In past elections PP used to come second behind CiU; this election came in third (12.39%). BComú got 10.5% and PSC only 4.4%.

In principle, there is an election in Catalonia scheduled on September 27. The defeat of Xavier Trias in Barcelona has been perceived as a setback in the "process" by premier Artur Mas.

[Velasco]

Yolanda Barcina, incumbent premier of Navarre: "The outcome of elections could see Spain resemble pre-Hitler Germany"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/27/inenglish/1432734863_029580.html

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"PP gives blessing to nationwide pacts to keep Podemos from taking power"

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Apparently, Mariano Rajoy is looking a substitute to Dolores de Cospedal in the post of secretary general of the Popular Party (the number two in the hierarchy behind chairman Rajoy). There's an interesting article in El Mundo about the woman: "Cospedal-Austen: Pride and Prejudice". Dolores de Cospedal adores Elizabeth Bennett, but her story will end worse than in Austen's novel. The failure in the Castilla-La Mancha regional election will dash her dreams of reaching higher heights in national politics (replacing Rajoy, for instance).

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/05/26/5563c67de2704e47128b4593.html

[Velasco]

Well, Orban's Fidesz is arguably worse. PP seems not so far from Hungarians, though. To make things more nauseating and aside the reluctance to condemn the Franco's legacy, PP has been financed irregularly since 1990, the very year when Manuel Fraga rebuilt the former Alianza Popular into the present Popular Party. As for Barcina, she's not a PP member properly, although UPN and PP have parallel histories. You know what a terrible mess was the outcome of the election in Navarre. There's going to be an avalanche media noise if Podemos pacts with Bildu. The purple party and Manuela Carmena have been already compared with ETA, in spite of the fact that Carmena was once threatened by ETA as judge of the Supreme Court.

[Velasco]

The results in Barcelona by neighbourhood are available in La Vanguardia. In the Gràcia district BComú came ahead in two of the five neighbourhoods: Vila de Gràcia (BComú 26.5%, CiU 24.7%) and El Coll (BComú 28.5%, CiU 20.1%). CiU came ahead in Vallcarca i els Penitents (BComú 20.4%, CiU 28.4%), La Salut (BComú 21.2%, CiU 28.9%) and Camp d'en Grassot i Gràcia Nova (BComú 21.8%, CiU 28.4%).

http://www.lavanguardia.com/vangdata/20150526/54431883852/mapa-interactivo-distribucion-voto-barrios-barcelona.html

[Velasco]

Results by district of the 2015 local elections in the city of Valencia:

Partido Popular (PP) 25.71% (-26.83%) y 10 (-10) councilors

Compromís per València 23.28% (+14.25%) y 9 (+6) councilors

Ciudadanos (C’s) 15.38% (new) y 6 (+6) councilors

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) 14.07% (-7.69%) y 5 (-3) councilors

València en Comú (VALC) 9.81% (nuevo) y 3 (+3) councilors

Esquerra Unida País Valencià (EUPV) 4.71% (-2.46%) y 0 (-2) councilors

Unión, Progreso y Democracia (UPyD) 1.38% (-1.45%) y 0 (nc) councilors

Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal (PACMA) 1.09% (+0.64%) y 0 (nc) councilors

Highlights.

1) PP's debacle. Figures speak by themselves.

2) Compromís replaces PSOE as the main party of the left in the Valencia City Hall. Joan Ribó (Compromís) will replace Rita Barberá (PP) in the mayoralty, with the support of the socialists and the Podemos outfit.

3) C's and València in Comú get into the Town Hall, while EUPV (the IU's regional branch) fails to reach the 5% threshold and lose its 2 seats.

C's result was particularly strong (although slightly lower than some polls predicted) and it's specially remarkable that they came a very strong second in the Pla del Reial district, one of the PP strongholds in the city, getting more than 25% of the vote. VALC got a result lower than expected, attributable to the unexpectedly high result won by Compromís.

CyL spokesperson just demanded the resignation of Industry minister Soria. WTF, one defeat and Spain's most monolithic party seems to be collapsing before our very eyes.

I know José Manuel Soria pretty well and understand why the premier of Castilla y León dislikes him. It's hard to find someone more arrogant than my fellow countryman. It'd be nice if Soria and Cospedal are swallowed by a black hole. Minister of Education José Ignacio Wert is about to leave his post for "personal reasons" or "family circumstances". Apparently Wert told Rajoy that he wanted to go and the PM asked him to wait until the elections took place. Rajoy may or may not reshuffle the cabinet in a couple of weeks, taking advantage of Wert's departure. Thank you for that summary

[Velasco]

Yes, I forgot that Cospedal might replace Wert in Education. As for De la Riva and according to El Diario, he has been disqualified from sitting as a member of the City Hall, on having been found guilty of a disobedience crime. De la Riva delayed nearly five years the execution of a judgement which forced him to restore the legality in a real estate property. Namely it's the Caja Duero building in Plaza de Zorrilla, in which De la Riva owned an apartment. The regional High Court of Justice ruled that there were several housing irregularities and cancelled a project to refurbish said building.

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/alcalde-Valladolid-condenado-desobediencia-concejal_0_393010838.html

As a reminder, De la Riva lost majority in the Sunday's local elections. PSOE, an IU-led coalition and the local Podemos outfit added 15 out of 29 councilors in the City Hall. The three municipal groups agreed on ousting the incumbent mayor. It's not clear if PSOE will govern in minority or IU will enter in a coalition that Podemos won't join. The result was the following:

PP 35.81% (12 councilors), PSOE 23.22% ( 8 ), Toma la Palabra (IU-Equo) 13.39% (4), Sí Se Puede (Podemos) 9.98% (3), C's 7.61% (2).

By the way, IU got a surprisingly strong result in the town of Zamora and given the correlation of forces may win the mayoralty. I ignore the reason why.

http://resultadoslocales2015.interior.es/99MU/DMU0849927599_L1.htm?d=5687

In other news, new legal setback for PP in the Bárcenas case:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/29/inenglish/1432889857_823672.html

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Pablo Iglesias admits relationship with socialists has changed:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/28/inenglish/1432821438_817486.html

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Iglesias stated recently that Podemos wouldn't join regional coalition governments led by PSOE. Perhaps Aragon would be an exception. There, the list topped by Pablo Echenique came virtually tied with the socialists in popular vote. In any case, Pablo Iglesias and Pedro Sánchez need each other's parties. Socialists need the Podemos support to get their candidates elected in various regional and local investiture sessions.

[Velasco]

Popular Party's corruption saga continues: the conservative party dismisses a Valencia official arrested on corruption charges:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/29/inenglish/1432910939_560122.html

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Mariano Rajoy says before a businessmen audience in Sitges (Barcelona) that"we have to change things", but not on economic policies. Rajoy attributed bad election results to corruption and the "constant hammering" of disturbing news in TV, because PM thinks that his party has been treated unfairly by critic journalists. Rajoy talked about the "problems" to bring the wonders of the economic recovery to people, as well he considers that they had been lacking an explanation for measures like brutal VAT increases. "It is time to lowering taxes", told Rajoy to the select audience.

Paul Krugman says that just a few days ago Very Serious Europeans took Spain as an example of big success, a vindication of the austerity programme. Obviously, Spanish people disagrees.

This news surfaced days before the election: "Inequality between rich and poor has hit record highs, OECD warns"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/21/inenglish/1432203309_060148.html

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OECD report: "In It Together: Why Less Inequality Benefits All"

http://www.oecd.org/social/in-it-together-why-less-inequality-benefits-all-9789264235120-en.htm

[Velasco]

Seville 2015: local election results by district.



Provisional results:

Partido Popular (PP) 33.08% (-16.23%) 12 (-8) councilors

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) 32.14% (+2.69%)  11 (=) councilors

Ciudadanos (C’s) 9.3% (new)  3 (+3) councilors

Participa Sevilla 9.01% (new)  3 (+3) councilors

Izquierda Unida-Convocatoria por Andalucía (IULV-CA) 5.97% (-1.18%) 2 (=) councilors

Ganemos Sevilla 4.13% (new) 0 councilors

Partido Andalucista (PA) 1.41% (-3.37%) 0 (sc) councilors

Equo 1,04% (-0.17%) 0 (nc) councilors

Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal (PACMA) 1.02% (+0.6%)  0 (nc) councilors

Unión, Progreso y Democracia (UPyD) 0.84% (-2.41%) y 0 (nc) councilors

There was a terrible mess of "popular unity lists" in the Andalusian capital. Finally Podemos endorsed the Participa Sevilla list, which won 3 councilors in the City Hall. IU ran in its own and kept 2 councilors. Some IU dissidents submitted a list called Ganemos Sevilla , which failed to win seats but splitted the vote in the left and created a considerable confusion. Finally, Equo ecologists ran their own list.

Probably Juan Espadas (PSOE) will replace Juan Ignacio Zoido (PP) in the mayoralty.

PP will likely hold the mayoralty in Málaga, the second largest Andalusian city. Conservatives might hold Granada, Almería and Jaén as well, propped up by C's. However, PP is about to lose Córdoba if opposition parties join forces. PSOE came first in Huelva at the expense of PP. Cádiz will go likely to Podemos. The candidate of the Podemos outfit in Cádiz is José María González Santos, aka 'Kichi'. He is the partner of Teresa Rodríguez, the Podemos leader in Andalusia.

Málaga (31 councilors): PP 36.4% (13), PSOE 26.2% (9), Málaga Ahora 13.3% (4), C's 10.3% (3), IU 7.4% (2).

Córdoba (29 councilors): PP 34.4% (11), PSOE 20.5% (7), Ganemos 12.5% (4), IU 12% (4), C's 8.6% (2), Unión Cordobesa 5.6% (1)

Granada (29 councilors): PP 35.4% (11), PSOE 25.9% ( 8 ), C's 14% (4), Vamos Granada 12.7% (3), IU 5.8% (1)

Almería (27 councilors): PP 40.4% (13), PSOE 27% (9), C's 10% (3), IU 7% (2), Ahora Almería 3.7% (-), Ganemos 3.7% (-). Two "popular unity lists" competing against each other with tragic consequences.

Cádiz (27 councilors): PP 33.7% (10), Por Cádiz Sí Se Puede 28% ( 8 ), PSOE 17.4% (4), IU 8.4% (2), C's 7.1% (2)

Out of the provincial capitals, PP might lose Jerez and the situation in Marbella is unclear.

[Velasco]

Zaragoza 2015: local election results by district.



Provisional results:

Partido Popular (PP) 26.88% (-14.38%)  10 (-5) councilors

Zaragoza en Común (ZGZ) 24.57% (+16.15%)  9 (+6) councilors*

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) 18.65% (-8,49%)  6 (-4) councilors

Ciudadanos (C’s) 12.29% (new)  4 (+4) councilors

Chunta Aragonesista (CHA) 6.78% (-2.46%)  2 (-1) councilors

Partido Aragonés (PAR) 2.82% (-1.72%) y 0 (sc) councilors

Unión, Progreso y Democracia (UPyD) 1.51% (-2.07%)  0 (sc) councilors

Escaños en Blanco (EB) 1.36% (new)  0 councilors

Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal (PACMA) 1.18% (+0.85%)  0 (sc) councilors

*With regard to IU and Ecolo-Verdes en 2011. Zaragoza en Común rallies Podemos, IU, Equo and other parties, as well social movements, independents, etc.

Incumbent mayor is Juan Alberto Belloch (PSOE), a judge who was minister of Interior and Justice in mid 90s. Belloch was elected mayor with the support of IU and the Aragonese Union (CHA); he didn't seek reelection. In all likelihood next mayor will be lawyer and human rights activist Pedro Santisteve (ZGZ).

Regional election results in the municipality of Zaragoza (Aragon):

PP 27.1%, Podemos 24.12%, PSOE 17.17%, , C’s 11.38%, CHA 5.28%, IU 5.06%, PAR 3.69%.

If I have time I'll post some regional election maps from next weekend on, regardless if you care or not and only because it's more funny sharing that kind of stuff.

[Velasco]

Kinda surprising also how CiU won in Sant Antoni (by very little, admiteddly), since it's much more similar to Raval than to Eixample.

I've just checked the Sant Antoni results in the EP 2014 elections and ERC came ahead in that neighbourhood getting 25.8% to CiU's 24.5%. In this local election ERC got nearly a half of that percentage. CiU uses to win in all of l'Eixample, although Sant Antoni has a lower income than the central Eixample neighbourhoods. I think that CiU came ahead PSC in the 2011 general election (I can check it, but I'm sure of that). I know little about that place, but it appears more nationalistic than El Raval... and a bit less than Sants, that is located west of Sant Antoni. ERC and CUP got 13.4% and 9.2% respectively in Sant Antoni to 14.7% and 10.7% in Sants. 

http://lameva.barcelona.cat/eixample/ca/home/el-barri-de-sant-antoni

I at least find these very instructing, and ask you to keep posting them, Velasco!

I will come up with a few questions about the near future shortly.

Thanks. In any case I won't have time to post regularly. As for the maps, I made already the islands (Balearic and Canaries) but I want to post Madrid first. I hope I can finish Valencia.

Albert Rivera held private meetings with Mariano Rajoy and Pedro Sánchez while Pablo Iglesias met with Sánchez (it may sound strange, but they didn't know each other personally) but wasn't invited by Rajoy. A couple of members of the Madrid regional government have resigned after having been involved in the investigation of the Púnica case, another PP corruption affair. The most relevant is Lucía Figar, who was holding the education portfolio and has a close relationship with Esperanza Aguirre. Those last minute resignations have been interpreted as a gesture to get the C's support in the investiture of Cristina Cifuentes as premier.

Pablo Iglesias met with Mónica Oltra from Compromís. Podemos leader would prefer Oltra rather than the PSOE candidate Ximo Puig as regional premier in Valencia; Oltra herself says that's not an indispensable condition, but she doesn't renounce to head the government. Apparently they talked about the possibility of running together Podemos and Compromís in the next general election, albeit vaguely and without reaching a decision.

[Velasco]

Bilbao 2015: local election results by district:

Results (final):

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea– Partido Nacionalista Vasco (EAJ–PNV) 39.34% (-4.82%) 13 (-2) councilors

Euskal Herria Bildu (EH BILDU) 14.04% (-0.17%) 4 (=) councilors

Partido Socialista de Euskadi–Euskadiko Ezkerra (PSE–EE) 11.97%  (-1.48%) 4 (=) councilors

Partido Popular (PP) 11.86% (-5.38%) 4 (-2) councilors

Udalberri-Bilbao en Común 8.47% (+3.98%)* 2 (+2) councilors

Ganemos Sí Se Puede-Goazen 6.53% (new) 2 (+2) councilors

Ciudadanos (C's) 3.52% (new)  0 councilors

Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal (PACMA) 1.2% (+0.72%) y 0 (nc) councilors

Unión, Progreso y Democracia (UPyD) 0.84% (-0.24%) y 0 (nc) councilors

*Udalberri includes Podemos, IU and Equo among others. Ganemos (or "let's win") is a list promoted by some Podemos dissidents in Bilbao, whom have been accused by the party of "swindle and cheat" voters. The 'Ganemos' people say they are loyal to the "original spirit" of Podemos.

Podemos performed better in the elections for the Juntas Generales de Bizkaia, that is to say the Biscay provincial legislature. Results in Bilbao municipality were:

EAJ-PNV 37.57%, Podemos 15.37%, EH Bildu 13.67%, PP 12.15%, PSE-EE (PSOE) 12.1%, C’s 3.55%, Irabazi (IU, Equo) 3.37%, PACMA 0.94%, UPyD 0.77%.

[Velasco]

Madrid 2015: leading party by municipality/district in the regional elections.



Results in the municipality of Madrid (bordered in yellow) are shown by municipal district.

Total regional results:

http://resultados2015.madrid.org/12AU/DAU12999CM_L1.htm

Among the highlights, many people in the city of Madrid splitted their vote in the local and regional elections between candidates Manuela Carmena (Ahora Madrid) and Ángel Gabilondo (PSOE). Ahora Madrid got 519.2 thousand votes in the municipal elections and Podemos 287.6 thousand in the regional elections; PSOE 249.2k and 416.8k respectively; IU 27.8k and 67.7k On the other hand, PP regional candidate Cristina Cifuentes got more votes (568.8 thousand) in the capital than Esperanza Aguirre (563.3 thousand). PP losses in the city of Madrid are strongly correlated with income (particularly strong in districts like Villaverde, Villa de Vallecas or Usera), according to this analysis:

http://www.eldiario.es/piedrasdepapel/mirada-resultados_6_392020810.html

In the municipalities of the so-called 'red belt' south of Madrid PSOE came first, while Podemos performed strongly. Examples: Getafe (PSOE 30%, PP 25.7%, Podemos 23.1%, C's 9.9%), Leganés (PSOE 29.7%, PP 22.9%, Podemos 22.6%, C's 10.1%). West of Madrid there were similar results in working-class municipalities like Coslada and San Fernando. In Alcalá de Henares PP came a weak first (27.4%), followed by PSOE (26.4%), Podemos (20.3%) and C's (13.4%). SW of Madrid PP came first in Móstoles (PP 28.9%, PSOE 26.8%, Podemos 22.8%, C's 10.5%) and Alcorcón (PP 29.9%, PSOE 27.2%, Podemos 20.6%). In high income municipalities west of Madrid PP came obviously in first place, and in many cases C's was the second party. Examples: Las Rozas (PP 41.4%, C's 19.4%, PSOE 16.9%, Podemos 11.6%) and Majadahonda (PP 44.9%, C's 17.9%, PSOE 16.9%, Podemos 10.7%). Podemos came first in a couple of municipalities of symbolic value: Parla (SW of Madrid) and Rivas-Vaciamadrid (SE). Parla was the fiefdom of Tomás Gomez, the former leader of the PSOE regional branch who was dethroned by Pedro Sánchez and replaced by independent Ángel Gabilondo as candidate. Rivas is the main IU stronghold in the region; in the municipal elections IU managed to come first ahead the local Podemos outfit, which placed a close second.

[Velasco]

Nice work, Nanwe. Perhaps you have to clarify that square symbols represent regional capitals and small circles provincial capitals. Obviously in the 2015 map the symbols in purple represent capitals where "popular unity lists" backed by Podemos are going to govern: Ahora Madrid, Barcelona en Comú, Zaragoza en Común, Marea Atlántica or Somos Oviedo.

In the news, Ciudadanos decided to support Susana Díaz in Andalusia. PSOE and C's have signed three documents required by the orange party as condition to unlock the investiture of the socialist candidate. Documents include a Decalogue of measures against corruption and for "democratic regeneration", as well economic and welfare safeguards.

Meanwhile, PP and C's agreed a "smooth path to Madrid premiership".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/06/09/inenglish/1433859811_936345.html

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There's an interesting article in Spanish about the "Zamora miracle". Zamora is a conservative-leaning provincial capital in Castile and León that is about to be governed by IU:

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/06/08/actualidad/1433767925_755097.html

[Velasco]

Balearic Islands: leading party by municipality in the 2015 regional elections.



Full results:

http://www.resultatseleccions2015.caib.es/04AU/DAU04999CM_L2.htm

[Velasco]

Canary Islands: leading party by municipality in the 2015 regional elections.



Full results:

http://elecciones2015.gobcan.es/05AU/DAU05999CM_L1.htm

[Velasco]

Asturias:



Full results:

http://www.resultadoselecciones2015.asturias.es/03AU/DAU03999CM_L1.htm

[Velasco]

Today El País entitles: "Leftist governments take shape in cities and regions across Spain"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/06/12/inenglish/1434103988_673495.html

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In short, four of the five most important Spanish cities will be governed by leftist "citizen platforms" or forces of the "alternative left": Madrid (Ahora Madrid), Barcelona (BComú), Zaragoza (ZGZ) and Valencia (Compromís). The remaining city is Seville, that will go for PSOE with the support of the Podemos local outfit and IU. All those cities were governed by PP except Barcelona, which had a CiU mayor.

Besides, A Coruña and Santiago de Compostela in Galicia will be governed by "popular unity lists" with the support of the socialists. PSOE will govern Vigo with a majority (Abel Caballero won a crushing victory on May 24) and Lugo with the support of the left.

However, in Asturias Podemos and PSOE didn't reach agreements to govern the cities Gijón and Oviedo. Regional premier Javier Fernández (PSOE) didn't want to accept that socialists support the Somos Oviedo candidate Ana Taboada, because the Podemos outfit in Gijón voted in assembly withdrawing support to the local socialist candidate. Unless they come to an agreement, PP and the FAC will hold respectively Oviedo and Gijón, on having been their lists the most voted in the respective local elections.

In the Basque Country, the mayoralty of Vitoria will go from PP to PNV. Bildu will vote for Gorka Urtaran (PNV) to replace Javier Maroto (PP); although there's no formal agreement between Bildu and PNV-PSOE. On election night PP won 9 councilors, EH Bildu 6, PNV 5 and PSOE 4 councilors. EH Bildu will allow PNV to govern the Diputación of Álava, so the jeltzales will hold the three provinces with their respective capitals. PNV won the local election in San Sebastián and the Gipuzkoa provincial election to EH Bildu on May 24.

The map of likely mayoralties in provincial capitals stands as follows:

Key: blue=PP, red=PSOE, purple="citizen platforms", green=PNV, yellow=CiU, grey="others". Provincial capitals going to "others" are: Valencia (Compromís), Palma de Mallorca (PSOE-MÉS), Santa Cruz de Tenerife (CC), Pamplona (EH BILDU), Pontevedra (BNG) and Zamora (IU). Oviedo (Asturias) is left in white because it's uncertain (PP or Somos Oviedo). Actually, there is no big difference with the map posted by Nanwe some days ago.

As for ongoing talks to form regional governments:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

As said previously, C's is about to support the investiture of Cristina Cifuentes (PP) in the region of Madrid.

[Velasco]

Is thee any major municipality which still has a majority government.

I guess you mean majorities held by a single party and not coalition governments, right? Among municipalities above 250,000 people, I only recall Vigo (PSOE). Probably I could find some single party majorities in municipalities between 100,000 and 250,000. As for provincial or regional capitals I recall Ceuta (PP) and Soria (PSOE). Neither of those two is a big city.

Right now, there is a live stream covering the formation of city councils. Manuela Carmena's investiture has just begun. Ada Colau will count in her investiture  with the affirmative vote of ERC, PSC and the CUP, so she will be elected with a majority. However, Colau won't govern in coalition and BComú only has 11 out of 41 councilors. She will have to negotiate initiatives with the different opposition parties.

[Velasco]

Mayors in provincial and regional capitals (and a handful of important towns/cities) after this morning:

Region of Madrid: Manuela Carmena (Ahora Madrid) elected Mayor of Madrid with the support of PSOE. PP councilors voted for Esperanza Aguirre and C's councilors for Begoña Villacís. Pablo Iglesias and Podemos' top members attended the opening session of the Madrid City Council. The nomination of Carmena was cheered by some people in the audience: "¡Sí se puede!" ("yes, it can be done").

Catalonia:

Ada Colau (BComú) was proclaimed Mayor of Barcelona with the support of 21 out of 41 councilors, including 10 from BComú, 5 from ERC, 4 from the PSC and 1 (out of 3) from the CUP. Colau said her nomination is the proof that "the impossible is possible".

Carles Puigdemont (CiU) was elected Mayor of Girona, Àngel Ros (PSC) Mayor of Lleida and Josep Félix Ballesteros (PSC) Mayor of Tarragona. All of them were elected without a majority and proclaimed mayors because their respective lists placed first in the elections.

Region of Valencia:

Joan Ribó (Compromís) elected Mayor of Valencia with the support of PSOE and València en Comú (Podemos). Former mayor Rita Barberá (PP) resigned yesterday as member of the City Council and didn't attend the proclamation of the new mayor.

In Alicante Gabriel Echávarri (PSOE) will govern in coalition with Guanyar Alacant (Podemos, IU and others) and Compromís. Castellón will be governed by Amparo Marco (PSOE) with the support of Compromís and Castelló en Moviment.

Andalusia:

Juan Espadas (PSOE) elected Mayor of Seville with the support of Podemos and IU.

Francisco de la Torre (PP) elected Mayor of Málaga with the support of C's.

In Almería the local branch of C's agreed with socialists on voting the PSOE candidate, but the party's national executive rectified that decision and orange councilors finally abstained, so Juan Carlos Pérez Navas (PP) was elected mayor.

PSOE gets the mayoralty of Córdoba for the first time in the present democratic period (the city has been governed previously by PCE, IU and PP). Socialist candidate Isabel Ambrosio was supported by IU and the Podemos outfit.

The abstention of the 4 C's councilors allowed the investiture of José Torres Hurtado (PP) as Mayor of Granada, who got 11 votes from his municipal group. The socialist candidate got the votes of PSOE and Vamos Granada (Podemos) totalling 11 councilors as well. The IU councilor voted for himself. PP gets the mayoralty on having been the list with the most votes in the elections.

José María González (Podemos) replaces Teófila Martínez (PP) as Mayor of Cádiz with the support of PSOE ad IU.

Gabriel Cruz (PSOE) elected Mayor of Huelva.

José Enrique Fernández Moya (PP) elected Mayor of Jaén; C's councilors abstained.

In Marbella José Bernal (PSOE) replaces Ángeles Muñoz (PP) in the mayoralty. PP fell short from a majority by only one seat. Bernal was supported by the rest of forces represented in the City Hall (PSOE, IU, Podemos and independents).

Aragon:

Criminal lawyer Pedro Santisteve (Zaragoza en Común) was proclaimed Mayor of Zaragoza with the support of PSOE and the centre-left regionalist CHA. PSOE gets the mayoralty of Huesca, while PP holds Teruel.

Asturias:

Carmen Moriyon (FAC) was proclaimed Mayor of Gijón without a majority. PSOE and the Podemos outfit Xixón Sí Puede (XSP) failed to reach an agreement in that city. As said before, XSP voted in assembly not supporting the socialists.

The big surprise was the proclamation of Wenceslao López (PSOE) as Mayor of Oviedo. Socialists only placed third behind PP and Somos Oviedo (Podemos). The Podemos outfit led by Ana Taboada, PSOE and IU reached a previous agreement to govern. However, PSOE withdrew support to Taboada in retaliation for events in Gijón. Both Podemos and IU decided to back unilaterally the PSOE candidate in order to prevent that PP holds the mayoralty.

Balearic Islands:

PSOE and the eco-nationalist MÉS will replace each other in the mayoralty of Palma de Mallorca. The socialist candidate was elected with the support of MÉS and Som Palma (Podemos) and will govern until 2017. MÉS will get the mayoralty in the 2017-2019 period. This kind of agreements is known in Spain as "time sharing mayoralties". PSOE gets the mayoralty of Eivissa (the official name of Ibiza).

Canaries:

Augusto Hidalgo (PSOE) proclaimed Mayor of Las Palmas with the support of the local Podemos outfit and the centre-left regionalist New Canaries. The Canary Coalition (CC) holds the mayoralty of Santa Cruz the Tenerife with the support of PP. Socialists didn't like that move, because CC and PSOE are negotiating a coalition government in the Canary Islands and the deal includes supporting each other's lists in the different municipalities.

Cantabria:

Ïñigo de la Serna (PP) reelected Mayor of Santander without a majority.

Castile-La Mancha:

PSOE gets the mayoralties in Toledo and Ciudad Real. PP holds Albacete, Cuenca and Guadalajara.

Castile and León:

Óscar Puente (PSOE) proclaimed Mayor of Valladolid with the support of IU and Podemos. Francisco Guarido (IU) was elected Mayor of Zamora with the support of PSOE; Zamora will be the only provincial capital governed by IU. PP holds Salamanca, Burgos, León and Palencia. PSOE holds Soria with a majority and gets Segovia in minority.

Extremadura:

PP holds the two provincial capitals: Cáceres and Badajoz. Mérida, the regional capital, goes to PSOE.

Galicia:

Xulio Ferreiro, candidate of the Marea Atlántica ("Atlantic Tide", includes the AGE and Podemos), was proclaimed Mayor of A Coruña with the support of PSOE, although Ferreiro wants to govern in minority.

Martiño Noriega (Compostela Aberta) will govern in Santiago de Compostela , the regional capital). Ferrol will be governed by another "popular unity list".

Abel Caballero (PSOE) will govern in Vigo with a comfortable majority. In Lugo Lara Méndez (PSOE) was proclaimed mayor. Méndez was the number two in the list and replaced the top candidate José López Orozco, who was vetoed by leftist forces. Miguel Anxo Fernández Lores (BNG) holds the mayoralty in Pontevedra. PP gets the mayoralty of Ourense in minority, due to the  lack of an alternative majority.

Region of Murcia:

José Ballesta (PP) elected Mayor of Murcia without a majority.

Independent José López elected Mayor of Cartagena with the support of PSOE. López will be replaced by socialist candidate Ana Belén Castejón in 2017. Another "time sharing agreement". PP, C's and the Podemos local outfit will be in the opposition.

La Rioja:

PP holds Logroño without a majority.

Navarre:

Joseba Asirón (EH Bildu) proclaimed Mayor of Pamplona with the support of Geroa Bai (independents and PNV), Aranzadi (Podemos) and IU.

Basque Country:

Juan Mari Aburto (PNV) elected Mayor of Bilbao with the support of PSOE.

Eneko Goia (PNV) elected Mayor of San Sebastián without a majority.

Gorka Urtaran (PNV) elected Mayor of Vitoria with the support of EH Bildu, Podemos and IU-Equo. PNV and PSOE had a previous agreement extended to all the Basque Country, in order to support each party's best placed candidates in the municipalities. However, a PNV councilor didn't support the socialist candidate in Andoain (a town in Gipuzkoa) allowing the proclamation of a Bildu mayor. PSOE withdrew support in Vitoria as retaliation. PNV was the third party behind PP and EH Bildu in the local elections. The Bildu support is not the result of a formal agreement, they voted for the PNV candidate to oust PP's Javier Maroto from the mayoralty.  

PP holds the autonomous city of Ceuta (majority), Opening session was suspended in Melilla due to denounces of alleged fraud in mail vote. PP will likely hold.

[Velasco]

Valencia 2015: leading party by municipality in the regional elections.

The Valencian elections provided the most entertaining results by far. Let's say the Comunidad Valenciana or País Valencià is a diverse region. The end of PP hegemony has brought a fragmented but fascinating landscape.  I made a table with the results in the 20 most populous municipalities here:

https://saintbrendansisland.wordpress.com/2015/06/14/eleccions-a-les-corts-valencianes-2015/