Spanish elections and politics

[jaichind]

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/spanish-court-extradition-121-taiwanese-china-51815552

Spanish court allows extradition of 121 Taiwanese to China

Funny news since it relates to my home Chinese Province of Taiwan.  Spainish courts decided to extradite 121 ROC nationals to the PRC regime.  The defendants claimed that "Taiwan is not a part of China" but the Spanish courts ruled  :

"The international community, except for those countries with which (Taiwan) has diplomatic relations, consider Taiwan to be part of China and take the view that its independence cannot be achieved unilaterally"

Pretty funny in light of the  Catalonia crisis. 

I guess in the Taiwan Province context I am the equivalent of Cs (and most even more extreme then that as I would support PRC military action to stop Taiwan Independence.)

[jaichind]

La Razon reports poll



Which has (diff from 2016 election)

PP        30.0 (-3.0)
PSOE    23.8 (+1.2)
UP        16.1 (-5.1)
C         18.8 (+5.7)

C a bit lower than some of the other polls in Nov and Dec

[jaichind]

Large lead for C in  Metroscopia  poll

[jaichind]

Keep in mind everyone that it's far from clear whether the no confidence vote will actually be successful. There are 2 possible ways for the no confidence vote to be successful (176/350 MPs are needed, an overall majority):

PSOE+Cs+Podemos
PSOE+Podemos+ERC+PDECat+PNV

Also, a no confidence vote just to call a snap election is vastly different from one where PSOE would actually try to govern for a while. It seems PSOE prefers the latter as long as they don't have to deal with the secessionists (though in a break from what PSOE policy used to be, Sánchez is open to that option!). While Cs obviously prefers a snap election.

 

Does the no confidence motion need a majority of all MPs to carry or just a relative plurality over votes against the motion.  It seems PP can really only count on its own MPs to vote against the motion.   The rest will be a combination of for or abstain but it seems hard to see how PP wins this if the rules say that a relative plurality is enough for the motion to carry.   

On snap election why would that not be a done deal unless PP will back a PSOE administration if the motion carries ?

[jaichind]

Rivera tells EL Mundo that fefore discussing possible support for Socialist party’s no-confidence motion against Rajoy, it would be necessary to discuss other issues including extension of direct rule of central government in Catalonia. He said it is also key to guarantee that budget bill is passed in Senate
Once those two issues are guaranteed, then Rajoy should call elections.  Should Rajoy refuse to call elections, Ciudadanos will demand Socialists withdraw their motion and submit a new joint non-confidence motion aimed at calling elections.

[jaichind]

Socialists Have the Votes to Oust Rajoy, TVE Says: Spain Update
(Bloomberg) -- Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy faces a decisive debate in parliament from Thursday as the Socialist opposition seeks the votes to oust him.
Lawmakers are due to vote on the no-confidence motion Friday and people close to the negotiations have been signaling that Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez is likely to get the support he needs to replace Rajoy as prime minister.
Read More: Rajoy or Not, Spain Bonds Not the Same Kettle of Fish as Italy
Sanchez already has the backing of the anti-establishment group Podemos and Esquerra Republicana, one of two Catalan separatist groups. He needs the other Catalan party, PdeCat, and the Basque Nationalists to clinch it.

[jaichind]

Will be curious to see what the polls shows in response to this.  I would imagine a surge of support for Cs.

[jaichind]

Wow .. nice numbers for VOX.  Hopefully PP + C + VOX > PSOE + AA.  Most likely not but if VOX is under polled ...

[jaichind]

82.8% in:

28.7% PSOE, 33 seats
20.5% PP, 26
17.9% C's, 21
16.2% AA, 17
10.8% Vox, 12
  1.9% PACMA

YES !!

[jaichind]

PSOE vote share going up slightly as time goes on.  Right now PSOE+C short of majority.  Maybe at the end PSOE+C might get to majority.

[jaichind]

93.43% in:

28.29% PSOE, 33 seats
20.66% PP, 26
18.12% C's, 21
16.16% AA, 17
10.88% Vox, 12

49.66% PP+C's+VOX, 58 seats
44.45% PSOE+AA, 51

[jaichind]

97.64% in:

28.06% PSOE, 33 seats
20.74% PP, 26
18.21% C's, 21
16.16% AA, 17
10.94% Vox, 12

49.89% PP+C's+VOX, 58 seats
44.22% PSOE+AA, 51

PP+C's+VOX vote share closing in on 50%

[jaichind]

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

But would this not lead to an ungovernability crisis after the next elections if these numbers hold on the premise that C will refuse to be in the same government as UP nor Vox.  Even a PSOE-PP grand alliance would not work.

[jaichind]

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

But would this not lead to an ungovernability crisis after the next elections if these numbers hold on the premise that C will refuse to be in the same government as UP nor Vox.  Even a PSOE-PP grand alliance would not work.

What probably happens is a PP-C's minority govt with outside support from VOX, similar to Andalusia right now.

Would not VOX be signing their own death warrant if they did that on the national level ?  They would be seen as sell outs by their anti-establishment vote base for peanuts.  I would imagine that their vote base would demand that any support they give has policy impact I would hand hardly see C allowing to take place if they were in the coalition. 

[jaichind]

RIP Podemos. Press F to pay respects. According to a new poll by GAD3 (generally the best performing pollster)



Apparently their recient problems have hurt them a lot. Also the Vox surge seems to be over (for now at least) stabilizing around 10-11%. PSOE rises a bit thanks to former Podemos voters and PP rises because of them getting the Andalusian government or something.

It seems that as Podemos support goes down over the last few month that support should flow to PSOE.  It seems if anything that support if flowing to VOX.  It could be the flows are more complex then that. 

[jaichind]

If after an national election a PSOE+C majority is possible but so is a PP+C+VOX what would be C's preference?  I assume what you guys are saying is it depends on if Sánchez is the PSOE PM candidate or someone else?

[jaichind]

But given C's position on Catalonia would not they prefer PP's hardline position?  Or will PSOE shift to a hardline position on Catalonia to get C onboard since given the assumed implosion of Podemos there will no longer be a need to care about Podemos's position on Catalonia?