Spanish elections and politics

[Former President tack50]

Pretty amazing that after all that the secessionists only lost 2 seats from 2015.  I guess it is back to stalemate.  Can Puigdemont run for and be appointed  President remotely ?

No idea, but I don't think so. Then again during the campaign he did promise that if he was reelected he would return to Catalonia and become president again.

Come to think about it, that's actually a good plot for a movie. Puigdemont tries to sneak into the Catalan parliament and not be noticed by the Spanish police. If Puigdemont somehow didn't get arrested on his way to Spain (I guess he could cross the border by car inside the trunk or something, as though he was being smuggled) and get into parliament it would be an incredibly powerful move of defiance.

And the images of the Guardia Civil entering a parliament would probably be extemely reminiscent of the 1981 coup (performed by Guardia Civil Coronel Antonio Tejero), which would add even more fuel to the fire.

[Former President tack50]

Why is ERC party of the south and JxCat of the north?

Also here's a map by municipality



JxCat wins most of the interior, Cs wins the coastal towns and the Barcelona and Tarragona metro areas. ERC wins mostly the south. PSC wins 2 municipalities in Aran with really tiny populations (15 and 10 voters for PSC; 60 and 43 voters respectively)

No idea. My guess is that Tarragona province is more left wing than Lleida/Girona, but also that the southern part is secessionist. But looking at other results (like the 2016 general election) it seems like that area, while it voted for ERC, it didn't do so overwhelmingly for the most part.

Another idea is that Puigdemont is from Girona province, so he did get a noticable "home state" effect there. But that doesn't explain why almost all of rural inland Catalonia voted for him.

[Former President tack50]

I don't know how this will end, seriously.  

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?

Technically yes, Catalonia uses the same law Spain uses for general elections except for the seat distribution (which comes from a decree from Josep Tarradellas intended for the first regional elections in 1980).

However it's of little relevance to be honest. There are some other communities with systems that are extremely similar. Castille-Leon for example does technically have its own election law, but it's basically the same as if it didn't have it as it has the same characteristics as the general election/Catalonia law (3% theshold, province sized constituencies)

Iirc they'd need 2/3 for a new one to be drafted but no one has been able to do get the required majority.

[Former President tack50]

Nice map of Barcelona

http://www.lavanguardia.com/local/barcelona/20171223/433819814761/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-barcelona-barrios-vecinos.html

EDIT : Ara.cat's is better

https://www.ara.cat/eleccions21d/resultats-21D-Barcelona-seccions-censals_0_1928807264.html#rlabs=1%20p$1

It's fun that La Barceloneta is a ERC land... But seeing this map, Colau will have a hard time to be reelected. In local politics, can parties go over "Constitutionalist vs. Independentists" fight?

For the most part no, local politics aren't completely affected by constitutionalists vs secessionist fights, they seem to be mostly isolated from that. There are plenty of mixed deals, like for example Sant Cugat (PDECat-PSC) or Torredembarra (ERC-Podemos-PSC).

However there are many times when there are problems because of that issue. For example last month Colau expelled the PSC government councillors (with Podemos ruling alone now) because of PSC's support of article 155

I do think Colau will be reelected but it's true that she might have a hard time. But I can't see an alternative really. A right wing government led by PDECat seems even more unlikely (I don't think Puigdemont's success will trickle down), and I can't see anyone overtaking Colau either.

[Former President tack50]

Apparently #Tabarnia is now trending topic in Spain. It refers to a hypothetical secession of the unionist areas of Catalonia, leaving a "Republic of Catalonia" with only the rural areas.



Commenting it just because it's funny, but the movement exists since 2013 and hasn't gone anywhere and I don't expect it to.

Decided to check the requirements and they'd need the support of the unelected provincial governments of Tarragona and Barcelona as well as 2/3 of all municipalities (many tiny seccessionist villages of 500 people) representing 50%+1 of all inhabitants in both provinces.

Either that or redrawing the map of provinces, something that was last done in 1927!

[Former President tack50]

I think they are using the Comarcas instead. This map is from the 2015 election but I guess it works for this one as well:

[Former President tack50]

By the way, we have our first poll after the catalan election (technically done before it, between 7-14 of December, but whatever) and it predicts a 3 way tie!

Simple Lógica

PP 24.8%
PSOE 23.8%
Cs 22.8%
UP 16,3%
Others 12.3%

Approval ratings:



http://simplelogica.com/iop/iop17017_intencion_voto_popularidad_lideres.asp

Considering that this was done before the Catalan election, I wonder, if Cs will somehow replace PP as the main right wing force. I seriously doubt it but it's an interesting possibility.

[Former President tack50]

It's definitely way too early to tell. Remember that 1-2 months before the 2015 election Cs was also polling incredibly well and in the end they came in a distant 4th. Podemos was also polling extremely well in late 2014 and early 2015 (they even took the lead in several polls!) before falling hard.

Now, some of Cs drop can be attributed to a bad 2015 campaign on their part while Podemos ran a very good campaign. But still, things changed a lot in 2 months. The next election, is most likely 2 years or so ahead. Things can change a lot in that time.

If Cs plays their cards right, stops the "voting PP is the only useful vote" campaign and the like they might have a shot but it's hard. They generally poll well when the catalan separatist movement is the most important issue.

[Former President tack50]

Worth noting that that poll is just raw voting intention without any kind of adjustments. It's just the results of asking people who they'll vote for.

Though it's still bad news for Colau, who seems to be losing votes to the secessionist ERC. It's also very bad news for PP, which seems like they'll miss the 5% threshold and lose all representatives.

[Former President tack50]

Wow, so Prime Minister Albert Rivera is actually a realistic possibility! Also, according to this poll, 3 coalitions would be possible:

PP+Cs
PP+PSOE
PSOE+Cs+CC

So anything would work really.

[Former President tack50]

LET’S GO RIVERA!!!!!

Also, is it basically a guarantee that Vox gets a seat?

No, it's far from guaranteed in fact. This pollster is the only one that has seen them getting a seat though in their defense they are also the only ones polling VOX instead of just throwing them into "others".

In theory extrapolating from their 2014 EU parliament result they should be getting a seat with 1.5-1.6% of the vote nationally (they need 3% in Madrid). In 2014 with 1.6% they got 3.2% in Madrid. That would have given them 1 seat.

IMO if VOX gets a seat in the 2019 EU elections, they'll probably get at least one in the national election in 2020 (assuming Rajoy doesn't call a snap election this year). Same goes for PACMA or any other small party.

[Former President tack50]

Well, an early election is a very real possibility. PNV doesn't really want to pass the 2018 budget (which is already late by the way, thankfully we don't get a government shutdown in that case XD) because of how PP has handled Catalonia.

I personally think PNV will pass the budget in the end but if they don't that would be a very good excuse to call an early election.

If there's an early election yes, PP/Cs will be very favoured.

[Former President tack50]

Yeah, but that one is from the same pollster (Sociométrica-El Español), just an older poll.

[Former President tack50]

Any chance of a vote of no confidence if Rajoy doesn't call a snap election? It doesn't seem Unidos Podemos and PSOE are in very good shape to face such an election.

I don't think so. There are only 2 possibilities for a successful no confidence vote:

PSOE somehow becomes open to a referendum or ERC and PDECat stop caring about independence a no confidence vote is impossible. The only viable majority would be:

PSOE+Podemos+ERC+PDECat+PNV.

The only alternative would be for Cs to break with PP and accept a PSOE-Cs-Podemos government.

[Former President tack50]

Celeste-Tel / eldiario.es poll

PP: 29.8% (123-128)
PSOE: 25.1% (92-96)
Cs: 18.6% (54-59)
Podemos: 16.9% (49-54)
Pacma: 1.2% (0)
Others: 1.6% (0)

ERC: 2.5% (9-10)
PDECat: 1.7% (6-7)
PNV: 1.2% (5-6)
EH Bildu: 0.9% (2-3)
CC: 0.3% (1)
BNG: 0.2% (0)

PP+Cs get a majority even in the lower end, PSOE+Cs and PSOE+Podemos short of one in all cases.

[Former President tack50]

Also, today fmr. regional president of Catalonia Artur Mas has resigned as party president of PDECat. Apparently his resignation has serveral reasons:

-Puidemont's presidential style campaign (centered on him, not the party) has been extremely successful and he doesn't want to get on the way of his expansion

-His campaign also included more defiance to the Spanish government while Mas apparently wanted moderation and doesn't think that independence can be declared with 47% of the vote. Now that Puigdemont has been successful with a radical campaign he can't try and make Puigdemont more moderate.

-The "Caso Palau" corruption case involving CDC under Mas is about to say whether they are innocent or guilty so Mas is resigning to avoid further damage.

Also, apparently PDECat will contest the 2019 local elections as Junts x Catalunya, the brand used by Puigdemont's campaign.

Finally, worry about Catalonia's independence has dropped by 12% over the last 2 months, after article 155 was activated. It is now the 5th largest worry at 16.9%, behind unemployment (66.8%), corruption (31.7%), politics and politicians (28.5%) and the economy (22.5%)

[Former President tack50]

And Cs gest it's first polling lead in its history!

El País-Metroscopia



With those percentages, both Cs-PSOE and Cs-PP become viable choices. I wonder now if Cs will just stop supporting Rajoy, essencially forcing him to call a snap election.

[Former President tack50]

This is amazing! Could a C's government actually happen?

With those numbers? Sure.

The electoral system is actually slightly rigged against Cs since they have a mostly urban base and spread out base while the system benefits rural areas and parties with a concentrated base, but not rigged enough to throw away a 4 point win. With those numbers and with an even swing from 2015 they'd get 100 seats, compared to PSOE's 85 and PP's 97.

So the Cs-PP gap is only of 3 seats while for a 4 point win you'd historically expect more like a 15-17 seat gap (like 2008 or 1993)

Whether you think Cs can actually not just come close to PP/PSOE, but overtake them and win the popular vote by a significant margin is a whole other story though.

[Former President tack50]

Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?

How is Cs an "ethnic nationalist" party? They've adopted harsher rethoric against peripheral nationalisms but that's it. I don't think they are worse than say, the 00s PP, which collected signatures against the Catalan estatut.

Or the old UPyD, which actually did have in it's manifesto to take away some devolved powers (most notably healthcare and education) and give them back to the central government.

If it were VOX we were talking about (or God forbid, some of the tiny fascist parties like say, Falange, aka Franco's party) then sure. But Cs is just another liberal party with harsh rethoric against peripheral nationalism like UPyD.

[Former President tack50]

Interesting that Cs might win the popular vote but come in third in terms of seats!

Seems like UCD's "gerrymander" is still working. Interestingly Cs might be the closest to the old UCD, so it has backfired 40 years later!

[Former President tack50]

Electoral reform is one of those things that everyone claims to be in favour but never happens in the end. Though Cs should press PP and tell them they'll vote against the budget if no reforms are passed.

The thing is that except for limited reforms (like say, bringing the number of MPs up to 400 and/or reducing the minimum amount of seats per province from 2 to 1), you need to reform the constitution as that specifies several key things:

The electoral constituencies must be the provinces of Spain
The results in each constituency shall be allocated in a proportional manner
The seat allocation shall be done in a proportional manner, but there must be a minimum of seats per province which shall be specified in law

And PSOE's constitutional reform commision isn't going exactly well. A few days ago the few remaining "founding fathers" that were still alive (2 from UCD, 1 from the "Catalan minority", ie CiU) weren't exactly in favour

Interestingly it's not the only electoral reform that isn't going well. All groups in opposition in the Canary Islands (PP, PSOE, Podemos, NC) agreed to do a limited electoral reform. Parliament increases from 60 to 70, 1 extra seat would go to Fuerteventura and the other 9 would go to an at-large constituency and allocated to make results more proportional. Also thresholds are lowered from 6% in the archipielago/30% on a single island to half of that (3%/15%)

However if CC doesn't approve I don't think it¡s possible. Apparently electoral reform needs either a 2/3 majority (CC+ASG, the big winners have that) or a reform of the estatuto (currently being debated in the Congress of Deputies, but electoral reform is precisely the largest obstacle. In fact it already stopped it in 2007!)

Electoral reforms are also being debated in Castille-La Mancha (with the highest threshold, a de facto 8% threshold!) and Andalucia (where Cs is in coalition with PSOE, but PSOE doesn't want reforms), but neither has been passed yet.

I think only Murcia has done electoral reform because of Cs.

[Former President tack50]

And PP falls to the third place! Also Podemos apparently recovers.

Simple Lógica poll





Approval ratings:



Interestingly, Iglesias is under water even among Podemos voters (-6) and Sánchez is only barely above among PSOE voters (+5).

http://www.simplelogica.com/iop/iop18002_intencion_voto_popularidad_lideres.asp

In other news, the first meeting of the Catalan parliament has happened and they elected a secessionist speaker by 65-56 (9 blank, 8 from Podemos and an unknown one, most likely from PSC). The regional MPs that were in jail were allowed to tell someone from their party who they wanted to vote for and have them vote in their name. The ones in Brussels didn't though.

And it's unclear if Puigdemont will be allowed to be elected remotely. The Spanish government has already said that they'll keep article 155 if he is reelected remotely as that goes against the Catalan parliament's rules, and will send it to court. ERC and CUP aren't exactly happy about having to put Puigdemont either.

A possibility that has been floated is for Puigdemont to not be reelected, like Mas in 2015; and instead just run for the EU parliament next year. That way he won't need to leave Brussels.

[Former President tack50]

Not sure if I should post it here but since there isn't any EP election thread just yet since it's too far away, whatever.

http://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2018/01/23/5a670fd422601da16d8b45e3.html

Spain will apparently get 5 more seats in the EU parliament in 2019, going up from 54 to 59. This is the largest amount of Spanish seats since 1999 (64 seats).

Since Spain uses a purely proportional system, 1 at-large constituency and no threshold, this will benefit small parties like VOX or PACMA. I wouldn't be surprised if they both get in. In fact, VOX would already have an MEP if Spain had had 59 seats in 2014

The 2014 results would have been:

PP: 18 (+2)
PSOE 16 (+2)
IU: 6
UPyD 4
Podemos 5
CEU (CC+PNV+CiU): 3
ERC 2
Cs 2
LPD (Bildu+BNG) 1
PE (Equo+Compromís) 1
VOX 1 (+1)

The 5 extra seats go to PP, PSOE and VOX.

[Former President tack50]

I would've thought that UPyD would've crumbled as Cs grew, but they're doing pretty well.

It's not a poll or anything like that though. It's just the 2014 result but with 59 seats instead of 54. Obviously nowadays UPyD would be extremely lucky to even hold 1 seat (one of their MEPs, Maite Pagazartundua, is somewhat famous for MEP standards though I doubt she'll hold her seat) and Cs would grow a lot.

I guess UPyD's closest comparison here might be CDS (another centrist party, the spiritual successor to UCD) in the 1994 EP elections, when the party had almost completely disappeared and everyone relevant had left but their candidate (Eduard Punset, later famous for his documentaries) was still somewhat famous. They got 1%, not enough to get a seat but still a very good showing.

I did not expect PP and PSOE to both grow by 2 though, I thought the new seats would be allocated in a more egalitarian fashion.

[Former President tack50]

And Cs slowly but surely keeps rising. Podemos is also very slowly recovering while PP is on free fall

Invymark-La Sexta poll

PP: 26,1%
Cs: 23,4%
PSOE: 23,0%
UP: 16.2%
Others: 11.3%

Approval ratings (out of 10)

Mariano Rajoy: 3.68
Pedro Sánchez: 4,28
Albert Rivera: 4.45
Pablo Iglesias: 2.78

http://www.lasexta.com/noticias/nacional/baro-voto_201801285a6de0c80cf2717a3c2f8893.html

Also some regional polling. I guess we'll see more of these next year when the regonal elections are actually imminent

IBES for Balearic Islands regional elections (30 for a majority)





MES are left wing nationalists and I think open to hypothetical unification with Catalonia, El PI are right wing nationalists and probably opposed on that but favourable to more decentralization. They are the successor to Unió Mallorquina, which was arguably the most corrupt party in Spanish history relative to their size.

So the left wing majority basically evaporates and it would be too close to call. However unlike in other regions PI might not automatically join with PP and Cs. In fact the Balearic Islands have already seen "everyone against PP" coalitions, like in 1999 and 2007. I still think if the left loses its majority the most likely scenario is PP-Cs-PI but it's not guaranteed.