Spanish elections and politics

[jaichind]

Is...is this real?

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/929784107613212672

Wow ...

[jaichind]

Looks real

https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/11/12/actualidad/1510492625_447115.html

[jaichind]

I think the next bifurcation point would be the Catalan elections Dec and see if the pro-Independence forces and capture a majority.  If so the crisis would get worse and PP/C would gain at the expense of of PSOE. 

I have an old rule of politics

If politics of an ecosystem becomes of politics of identity like on ROC (the Chinese vs Taiwanese identity) then political discourse always shift to the Right.   

[jaichind]

If the pro-Independence forces could not win a majority then which side would the Podemos bloc back?  I cannot imagine Podemos going with a bloc that includes PP.   I assume they are more aligned with the  pro-Independence bloc.  If they do join up with the pro-Independence bloc will they make not going ahead with Independence a condition of their support? 

[jaichind]

When does polls close? Any exit polls?  Any links to results ?

[jaichind]

My guess is  secessionists wins majority by a tiny margin which just means continuation of the crisis without end.   I think it will be something like:

CUP:      8
ERC:    33
JxC:     28
CeC:      8
PSC:    19
PP:        6
C's:     33

[jaichind]

The turnout statistics are pretty amazing.  Thanks for posting the links.

[jaichind]

Ciudadanos Seen Winning Most Seats in Catalan Ballot: 8tv Poll

[jaichind]

Catalan Separatists Seen Winning Razor-Thin Majority: 8tv Poll

[jaichind]

8tv exit poll

CUP:      5-6
ERC:    34-36
JxC:     28-29
CeC:      7-8
PSC:    18-20
PP:        3-5
C's:     34-37

[jaichind]

The iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF slipped lower just after polls closed. It's still convincingly higher on the day.

[jaichind]

The secessionist bloc on at medium of 69 according to exit poll.

[jaichind]

Looks like PP lost votes to C and CUP lost votes to ERC relative to pre-election polls.

[jaichind]

GAD3 seem to hedging their bets a bit with these projections. Bottom end of the range for the separatists give them 67 seats - one short of a majority. Top end is 71.

[jaichind]

It seems the GAD3 polls is an election day telephone poll and not an exit poll.

[jaichind]

Looking pretty good for the secessionists

[jaichind]

The fall of PP to below the seat thresholds in different regions indirectly helps the bigger parties of which 2 of the 3 are  secessionists.  If the entire  Catalonia was one large PR region that would work to help the secessionists less.

[jaichind]

What a mess these results. C's will have a massive lead in the popular vote, but could have fewer seats than JxCat. Plus, the independence parties are poised to have the same total vote they had in 2015: 47%.

It seems that is related to the d'hondt method rewarding the larger parties and despite its large vote share C is poor 3rd place in 2 of the 4 regions.

[jaichind]

Secessionists down to 69 seats now ..

[jaichind]

I think D'Hondt plays a large role due to the larger party bonus effect.  If we view  Catalonia as one large district the seat distribution would be

            Current      If one large PR region
C's:          36                      35
JxC:         34                      30
ERC:        32                      30
PSC:        17                      19
CeC:         8                       10
CUP:         4                         6
PP:           4                         5

JxC  ERC over performance is more at the expense of smaller parties

[jaichind]

^
No, it seems that in the mean time JxCat took back a seat from PSC (who is now at 17)

Also, an interesting side effect of this elections is that PP and CUP will have to share a joint parliamentary group. Neither has enough seats for an individual parliamentary group (they'd need 5), so they'll both go to the mixed group.

That basically means that they'll have to share their talking time, their seats in commitees, etc.

They can do this despite the fact that their platforms are polar opposites of each other ?

[jaichind]

Pretty amazing that after all that the secessionists only lost 2 seats from 2015.  I guess it is back to stalemate.  Can Puigdemont run for and be appointed  President remotely ?

[jaichind]

Pretty amazing that after all that the secessionists only lost 2 seats from 2015.  I guess it is back to stalemate.  Can Puigdemont run for and be appointed  President remotely ?

No idea, but I don't think so. Then again during the campaign he did promise that if he was reelected he would return to Catalonia and become president again.

Come to think about it, that's actually a good plot for a movie. Puigdemont tries to sneak into the Catalan parliament and not be noticed by the Spanish police. If Puigdemont somehow didn't get arrested on his way to Spain (I guess he could cross the border by car inside the trunk or something, as though he was being smuggled) and get into parliament it would be an incredibly powerful move of defiance.

And the images of the Guardia Civil entering a parliament would probably be extemely reminiscent of the 1981 coup (performed by Guardia Civil Coronel Antonio Tejero), which would add even more fuel to the fire.

This used to happen in India all the time.  The idea is that a MP or MLA is immune from prosecution.  So criminals/bandits would run for MLA and MP seats and many times would win.  Then on the day they will be sworn in the police know they will need to show up at the Legislative assembly and wait outside to arrest them.  The MP or MLA elect would need to sneak past the police, get sworn in, and then the police can no longer arrest them. 

[jaichind]

I don't know how this will end, seriously.  

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?

Are CeC really anti-independence?  Given a choice of joining forces with C PP or independence it might be a tossup I would think.

[jaichind]

Puigdemont: “I’m willing to meet with Rajoy in Brussels or somewhere else in the European Union other than Spain, because we have to consider the new political stage that starts in Catalonia, Spain and Europe."