Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

BREAKING: Podemos secretary general Pablo Iglesias announced this evening that Juan Carlos Monedero resigns from the Citizen's Council (the Podemos political bureau) "after complying his obligation as responsible of the (political) program". Monedero is Co-Founder of Podemos, ideologue and has been a key man in the party in which he will stay as member. Today morning, Monedero complained about the Podemos "mainstream drift":

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/04/30/inenglish/1430403454_148415.html

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Pablo Iglesias stated that he doesn't share some of Monedero's thoughts, but said that his friend is an intellectual who needs to "fly free" and Podemos will need his "sting" to galvanise the base. Both Iglesias and the party's number two Ïñigo Errejón thanked Monedero's "extensive job" and hoped to work "side by side" with him for that project for political change which excites "more and more people" every time.

Monedero was pointed by media months ago as a possible candidate for Mayor of Madrid. However, his figure began to decline as a result of his affair with the Treasury (featuring veiled menaces from minister Cristóbal Montoro):

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Juan Carlos Monedero was criticised by some people inside Podemos due to his delay in giving an explanation, and because when he did it wasn't fully satisfactory. However, the same people was indignant because Monedero's alleged wrongdoing was equated by rivals and media to big corruption scandals involving major parties.

[Velasco]

Well, Gully replied already.

It's a real poster from the 2006 campaign in Catalonia. It was the first time C's was running in a regional election and that affiche was an immediate sensation. It was intended to transmite the message of a new born force: clean, transparent and with nothing to hide. C's leader Albert Rivera was a swimming champion and he's undeniably good-looking. Everything counts to sell the product: political marketing.

C's was successful in getting into the Parliament of Catalonia winning 3 seats.

[Velasco]

Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias hopes that the departure of Juan Carlos Monedero won't cost them votes:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/01/inenglish/1430479804_346180.html

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According to El País, several European governments show interest for the policies of the new rising star, that is to say, Albert Rivera and Ciudadanos. Representatives from various embassies requested meetings with party members in order to know their ideology. Employees of the Italian embassy already attended dinners to meet C's members; the newspaper says that diplomats, communication managers and lobbyists took advantage of those events to ask questions. After the presentation of the C's economic platform (drawn by economists Luis Garicano and Manuel Conthe) which cleared the party stances on fiscal and financial issues, questions focused on foreign policy. On economic policy Ciudadanos claims an advocacy for a "Danish model", in opposition to the "Venezuelan model" apparently supported by Podemos. Actually, the policies proposed by C's are similar to those of Denmark on issues like employment flexibility, but without the large employment benefits usual in that country. As well they advocate for a lower tax burden for high incomes: the maximum they are proposing is 40%, opposed to the current 48% in Spain and the 60% into force for Denmark. Also, they propose creating a network of technologic institutes and professional training schools similar to that existing in Germany but, honestly, I don't know if that's viable with the fiscal policy they stand for. One of the C's most controversial stances is their proposal for legalising prostitution. Another controversial stance is that they say giving healthcare benefits for irregular immigrants is "unsustainable".  

Ciudadanos made public few days ago the party position on post-election agreements. Basically, they are open to have conversations with all parties and to dicuss concrete measures. In case they don't win in a region or municipality, in neither case they will join a coalition government which could damage C's chances in the general election. They are open to allow the investiture of minority governments on the basis of negotiating key issues for them, such as anti-corruption measures and electoral reform (among others).

Are you ready for "Naranjito"?

[Velasco]

Orange fever!

Ciudadanos and PSOE are tied in Madrid, according to a Metroscopia poll which will be released in detail tomorrow by El País. 

Three-cornered contest between PSOE, C's and Podemos for the second place in the regional election. The Podemos outfit Ahora Madrid places second in the Madrid mayoral race, while PSOE and C's are tied in third place. In all cases, the orange party holds the balance of power.

[Velasco]

Graphs are cool, so there is the Metroscopia poll in detail.

Madrid Regional Assembly: Vote share and seats

Regional candidates: evaluative balance and level of knowledge.

Direct voting intention.

With regard to vote as remembered in 2011, transfers would be:

PP: PP 51.2%, C's 18.3%, PSOE 1.8%, Podemos 1.6%, IU 0.3%, UPyD 0.3%

PSOE: PSOE 37.6%, Podemos 20.3%, C's 5.8%, IU 2%, PP 0.3%

IU: Podemos 47.6%, IU 22.6%, PSOE 10.4%, C's 2.8%

Madrid City Council: Vote share and seats.

Mayoral candidates: evaluative balance and level of knowledge

Direct voting intention

With regard to vote as remembered in 2011, transfers would be:

PP: PP 62.1%, C's 15.7%, PSOE 2.5%, AM 1.5%

PSOE: PSOE 38.6%, AM 29.5%, C's 7.6%, IU 1.5%

IU: AM 56.9%, IU 20.7%, PSOE 8.6%, C's 1.7%

Ahora Madrid= Podemos + Ganemos Madrid + Equo + part of IU Madrid

Metroscopia seems to typically over poll the insurgent parties (or else the other pollsters understate them) from what I've seen.

It can be true either way. MyWord tends over poll insurgent parties even more, I guess it's due to a particular methodology. MyWord polls are online, something unusual in Spain, while Metroscopia resorts to phone calls. In any case, we had a recent regional election in Andalusia and we can compare the deviation between polls and the actual result. As for Metroscopia, they estimated  the following (in brackets, difference with the election result):

PSOE 36.7% (+1.3%), PP 25.1% (-1.7%), Podemos 14.7% (-0.1%), C's 11% (+1.7%), IU 8.5% (+1.6%)

The average polling, that is to say the "poll of polls", almost nailed the result of that election.

[Velasco]

The Economist again. In the wake of the temporary arrest of Rodrigo Rato two weeks ago, an op-ed raises alarm about the "government cronyism" which "may cripple Spain's economy"

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21650176-research-suggests-government-cronyism-may-cripple-spains-economy-inside-jobs?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/insidejobs

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On a side note, the very serious papers and opinion makers worldwide elevated Mr Rato to the altars consecrating him as the craftsman of the "Spanish Miracle"; international prestige gained in that way could have helped him to become in the IMF head. As it was proven later (real estate bubble), such 'miracle' had a feet of clay. Until recently and still now, many conservative opinion makers say that Rato was the best Minister of Economy that Spain ever had.

The article mentions some research on the effects of the so-called "crony capitalism" in the Spanish economy:

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In the last sentence you can check that The Economist seems to be turning from the blue to the orange party.

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Cronyism in public administration and links between corrupt politicians and corrupting businessmen are not the only reasons to explain popular anger. This factor was existing before. The usual factor which political analysts mention to explain why people is angry now at corruption and cronyism is the impoverishment of the middle class, which is the effect of crisis and austerity and is the cause behind the surge of forces like Podemos. However, the continuous succession of scandals has ended creating outrage among the more advantaged sectors. Note that in the present context, what was considered a middle class standard of living years ago can be seen as a high standard nowadays. 

[Velasco]

Another Madrid poll to compare results with Metroscopia.

Invymark / La Sexta

Madrid Regional Assembly: PP 33.7% (48 seats), PSOE 22.6% (32), Podemos 18,6% (26), C's 16.1% (23), IU 4.1% (-), UPyD 1.4% (-), Others 3.5%

Madrid City Council: PP 36.1% (24 councilors), PSOE 18.5% (12), AM 17.3% (11), C's 15.5% (10), IU 4.3% (-), UPyD 1.9% (-), Others 6.4%

And another for the Catalan elections.

Feedback / La Vanguardia

Parliament of Catalonia: CiU 35-36 seats, ERC 26-27, C's 26, PSC 12-13, CUP 10-11, PP 9, ICV 8, Podemos 6-8.

I didn't found vote percentages, but maybe the newspaper will release them tommorrow. With that seat estimation and given malapportionment, I'd bet that C's is the second party in vote intention. Podemos is surprisingly low, but maybe the next poll released by El Periódico will give different results.

The poll asks about the independence of Catalonia: "Yes" is at 43.7% and "No" at 47.9%; the same pollster said in December that "Yes" was at 47.2% and "No" at 42.9%.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/20150502/54430353735/grafico-el-sondeo-punto-por-punto.html

[Velasco]

Feedback / La Vanguardia

Parliament of Catalonia: CiU 35-36 seats, ERC 26-27, C's 26, PSC 12-13, CUP 10-11, PP 9, ICV 8, Podemos 6-8.

Vote estimation: CiU 22.6%, C's 19.1%, ERC 16.6%, PSC 9.9%, CUP 7.9%, PP 6.6%, ICV-EUiA 6.6%, Podemos 6.3%

More regional polls

Valencia: Sigma Dos / Las Provincias

PP 29.7% (33 seats), PSOE 18.4% (19-22), C's 16.1% (17), Podemos 14.8% (15-16), Compromís 12.2% (12-14), EUPV (IU) 3.6% (-), UPyD 1%, Others 4.2%

Coincidence or not, PP and C's reach 50 seats together in the seat estimation while PSOE + Podemos + Compromís would be at 49. Still an open race.

City of Valencia (33 councilors) PP 29.2% (11 councilors), C's 19.4% (7), PSOE 14.6% (5), Podemos+ Gunayem Valencia 12.2% (4), Compromís 11.6% (4), IU 7.6% (2)

Balearic Islands: Sigma Dos / El Mundo

Seat estimation (Total 59): PP 22-25, PSOE 12-14, Podemos 8-11, Més 6, C's 4-5, Gent (Formentera) 1, IU 0-1.

Only in the best of cases PP (25) and C's (5) would get a majority. Otherwise there are precedents in the islands of "all united against PP" coalitions. In this case: PSOE, Podemos, the "eco-nationalist" MÉS, the Formentera party and IU.

Extremadura: Enquest / El Periódico de Extremadura

PP 41% (29-30 seats), PSOE 30.7% (21-22), Podemos 12.1% (7-8), C's 9.9% (6), IU 4.2% (0-2)

Good news for Monago   The weigh of rural population in the region as a whole explains the relatively small impact of insurgent parties (the purple and the orange).

Electograph "poll of polls" for the race in Madrid:

Regional Assembly

Madrid City Council

[Velasco]

After months of uncertainty and fear, an avalanche of noisy information in media and the unannounced surge of a clean-shaved version of PP, Pablo Iglesias is showing signs of leaving defensive tactics and going on the attack:

http://blogs.publico.es/pablo-iglesias/1025/guerra-de-trincheras-y-estrategia-electoral/

And at last, Podemos has a platform to confront the next regional and local elections:

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/Podemos-programa-resumido-claves_0_384612377.html

Other informative focus are:

a) Andalusia: will C's and Podemos abstain in the second vote and allow Susana Díaz to govern?

http://www.infolibre.es/noticias/politica/2015/05/06/cuales_son_las_opciones_susana_diaz_para_gobernar_andalucia_32323_1012.html

b) Valencia: the endless saga of corruption scandals involving regional PP continues. This time the star is provincial boss Alfonso Rus.

http://www.elmundo.es/comunidad-valenciana/2015/05/06/554954bf268e3e93558b457d.html

c) El Diario is publishing a serialized history on PP's past illegal financing, stretching back to Aznar and Hernández Mancha eras.

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/Naseiro-registro-pruebas-Aznar-mandaba_0_384611872.html

[Velasco]

CIS May survey: General election.

Sample: 2,479 (face to face). Margin of error: 2%. Fieldwork: April 1-12

Direct vote intention: PSOE 15.4%, Podemos 13.6%, PP 13.5%, C's 10%, IU-ICV 3.1%, ERC 1.5%, CiU 1.4%, UPyD 0.8%, PNV 0.6%

http://ep00.epimg.net/descargables/2015/05/07/201be29fb5a7216abc54a904a3371e11.pdf

PP retains the first place losing 19% with regard the 2011 election. PSOE recovers the second place, trailing conservatives by only 1.3%. Podemos falls to third place and C's raises form 3.1% in Jan to 13.8% in May.

CIS / Regional elections.

Madrid (129 seats): PP 34.7% (48-49), PSOE 20% (27-28), Podemos 17.3% (24), C's 16.3% (22-23), IU 5.4% (7), UPyD 2.5% (-) Sample: 1512

Valencia (99 seats): PP 30.4% (33-35), PSOE 19.9% (22-23), Podemos 16.5% (19), C's 15.3% (16), Compromís 8.1% (7-8), EUPV (IU) 4.3% (-), UPyD 1.5% (-) Sample: 1955

Extremadura (65 seats): PSOE 38.9% (26-28), PP 34.6% (24-26), Podemos 11.6% ( 8 ), C's 6.9% (4), IU 4.1% (0-2), UPyD 0.7% Sample: 1199

Murcia (45 seats): PP 41% (21-22), PSOE 24.9% (11-12), C's 13.8% (6), Podemos 10.4% (6), IU+allies 5% (-), UPyD 1.1% (-) Sample: 1492

Aragon (67 seats): PP 29.7% (23-24), PSOE 22.4% (17), Podemos 14.1% (9), C's 12.9% (8-9), PAR 5.7% (4), IU 5.4% (3), CHA 5% (2) Sample: 1586

_{PAR= Aragonese Party (centre-right regionalist). CHA= Aragonese Union (centre-left regionalist)}

Castilla y León (84 seats): PP 40.9% (43-44), PSOE 22.9% (20-21), C's 11.1% (9), Podemos 10.3% (8-10), IU 3.8% (1), UPL 1.8% (1), UPyD 2% (-) Sample: 2989

_{UPL= Leonese People's Union}

Castilla-La Mancha (33 seats): PSOE 35.1% (13), PP 34.9% (14-15), C's 12% (3-4), Podemos 9,9% (2) Sample: 1961

Asturias (45 seats): PSOE 25.5% (13), Podemos 21.4% (10), PP 19.9% (11), FAC 10.6% (5), C's 10.6% (4), IU 6.7% (2), UPyD 2.2% (-) Sample: 1198

_{FAC = Foro Asturias. PP splinter, right-wing regionalist.}

Canary Islands (60 seats): PP 20.8% (12-14), PSOE 20.4% (15-16), CC 18.9% (17), Podemos 15.8% (10), C's 10.7% (4-5), NC 5.2% (-), Canarias Decide  4.1% (-) Sample: 1723

_{NC= New Canaries, centre-left regionalist. Canarias Decide= IU +a bunch of small parties.}

Cantabria (35 seats): PP 33.2% (13-14), PRC 22.4% (8-9), PSOE 16.3% (6), C's 10.3% (4), Podemos 9.5% (3), IU 3% (-), UPyD 1.6% (-) Sample: 799

_{PRC= Cantabria regionalist}

La Rioja (33 sets): PP 38.7% (15-16), PSOE 22.3% (8-9), C's 13.1% (5), Podemos 11.6% (4), Regionalist 4.6% (-), IU-Equo 4.2% (-), UPyD 1.7% (-)  Sample: 774

Navarre (50 seats): UPN 20.8% (11-12), Podemos 19.9% (11), EH Bildu 12.5% (7), PSOE 11.2% (6), Geroa Bai 10% (5), C's 8.7% (4-5), PP 6.7% (3), IU 5.1% (2) Sample: 789

Balearic Islands (59 seats): PP 30% (19-20), PSOE 22.3% (14-15), Podemos 14.5% (10), C's 12.4% (9), MÉS 9,6% (5), Gent 0.4% (1), PI 2.4% (-), IU 2.1% (-) Sample 1199

_{MÉS: Més per Mallorca. Catalan nationalist, left-wing, ecologist. PI= Proposta per les Illes, centre-right regionalist. Gent: Formentera party, left leaning}

Ceuta (autonomous city, 25 councilors): PP 49.5% (14), PSOE 22.6%% (6), Caballas 11.2% (3), C's 6.8% (2), UPyD 2% (-), IU 1.4% (-)  Sample: 300

_{Caballas is a left-leaning local party associated with Equo. In the EP elections endorsed the European Spring list (Compromís, Equo, CHA and others)}

Melilla (autonomous city, 25 councilors): PP 36.8% (10-11), PSOE 21.2% (6), CpM 14.3% (4), Podemos 9.3% (3), C's 6.8% (1-2), PPL 5.8% (1), UPyD 3% (-), IU 1.4% (-).

_{CpM (Coalition for Melilla) is a left-leaning local party representing the Muslim community. PPL (Populares en Libertad) is a PP splinter which endorsed the Vox Party in the EP elections.}

CIS / Municipal elections.

Madrid (57 councilors): PP 34.5% (22-23), AM 20.8% (13-14), PSOE 18.8% (12), C's 14.9% (9-10), IU 4.2% (-), UPyD 3.2% (-) Sample: 927. AM= Ahora Madrid (Podemos, Ganemos Madrid, Equo, IU Madrid dissidents)

Barcelona ( 41 councilors): BEC 25.9% (11), CiU 18.5% ( 8 ), C's 13.8% (6), PSC 11.6% (5), ERC 10.1% (4), PP 9.1% (4), CUP 7.1% (3) Sample: 993. BEC= Barcelona en Comú (Guanyem, ICV-EUIA, Podemos)

Valencia (33 councilors): PP 35.7% (13), PSOE 15.9% (6), C's 14.4% (5), VEC 13.2% (5), Compromís 10.4% (4), IU 4.5% (-), UPyD 2.1% (-) Sample: 710 VEC= Valencia en Comú (Podemos and allies)

Seville (31 councilors): PP 32.4% (11-12), PSOE 28.5% (10), SSP 13.4% (4-5), C's 12.6% (4), IU 5% (1), UPyD 1% (-) Sample: 997  Initially SSP= Sevilla Si Puede (Podemos and allies). Right now there are two "popular unity" lists that will split the vote: Participa Sevilla and Ganemos Sevilla

Zaragoza (31 councilors): PP 27.3% (10-11), ZEC 21.8% (7-8), PSOE 20% (7), C's 14.4% (5), CHA 7.1% (2), PAR 4.4% (-), UPyD 2% (-) Sample: 741 ZEC= Zaragoza en Común (Podemos, IU and others)

Vitoria-Gasteiz (29 councilors): PP 25.9% ( 8 ), EH Bildu 17.8% (5), PNV 17.7% (5), PSE-PSOE 12.8% (4), Irabazi 11.4% (3), Hemen-Gaude 6.4% (2), C's 3.3% (-) Sample: 499.

_{Irabazi ("Let's Win")= IU, Equo, Ganemos Gasteiz. Hemen-Gaude ("Here We Are"): Podemos}

Santiago de Compostela (27 councilors): PP 33.4% (9-10), PSOE 23.2% (6-7), Compostela Aberta 19.8% (5), BNG 8.6% (2), C's 7.9% (2) Sample: 499

_{Compostela Aberta: "popular unity candidacy" including AGE (Anova-IU) and Podemos.}

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/05/07/actualidad/1431002822_141573.html

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/CIS-pronostica-PP-salvaria-Ciudadanos_0_385311795.html

[Velasco]

Analysis of CIS raw data in El Diario by various authors.

http://www.eldiario.es/piedrasdepapel/dice-nuevo-barometro-CIS_6_385721435.html

Some conclusions:

1) PSOE has found an "ally" in C's because the surge of Albert Rivera boys has made political competition more ideologized, as well has blurred polarisation between PP and Podemos. C's has contributed to tarnish Podemos' image, putting the focus on the contradictions in the Pablo Iglesias party and replacing it as the last one to arrive: being the "newest sensation" or the "flavor of the month" is a plus in the present context. Socialists have recovered part of their disenchanted voters from Podemos, while their loses to C's are relatively small.

Vote transfers in PSOE voting base, attending to "vote as remembered in 2011" figure. Data from the CIS May survey (Jan survey in brackets):

PSOE 52.2% (38.7%), Podemos 15.5% (26.1%), C's 4.5% (0.9%), IU 1.5% (1.1%), Undecided/Don't know 18.1% (22%), wouldn't vote 4.5% (6.3%), Others 3.7% (4%)

On the other hand, C's is both a serious rival and a potential ally for PP. The orange party is uncomfortable for PP because it makes difficult for the conservative party to recover disillusioned and angry voters. Additionally, Mariano Rajoy's party has lost the battle among the young and certain urban middle class. C's is feeding primarily by former PP and UPyD voters and "orphan" voters which voted "blank" or "null" in 2011.

Vote transfers in PP's voting base, etcetera:

PP 48.8% (50.3%), C's 17.7% (3.7%), Podemos 4% (7.3%), PSOE 3.3% (4.5%), IU 0.5% (0.7%), UPyD 0.2% (1.7%), Undecided/Don't know 16.7% (17.9%), wouldn't vote 6% (8.7%), Others 2.8% (5%)

2) Ciudadanos and Podemos have some similarities, but the base of their support is different. Podemos has lost some cross-party appeal due to the surge of C's, but their support is still "transversal" stretching from the far-left to the centre-right. Podemos, however, has lost voters in all segments more due to a loss of image (they are no longer the only representatives of the "new poltics") than to ideological reasons (either for being too "moderate" or "too leftist"). C's has reshaped transfers of disillusioned voters from the traditional parties. In the end, C's has damaged Podemos by stealing them the image of "freshness" and "novelty" and not so much because of making Podemos to appear more radical.

Being their formulas for success different, Podemos and C's face different challenges. The main danger for C's is being labelled as a (classic) party in the right. Voters placed them more to the right in May than they made in January: they score now 5.77 (up from 5.14) in a 1-10 ideological scale, where 1 is the extreme far-left and the 10 far-right.

Party appeal on the ideological axis:

Key: X= position on the ideological scale. Y= average propensity to vote the party.  PP blue, PSOE red, Podemos purple, C's orange.

3) The CIS survey calls into question the narrative in past weeks: Podemos is losing support because former moderate socialists voters switched to C's. Unlike a previous poll conducted by GESOP, the CIS doesn't detect "connecting vessels" of relevance between Podemos and C's, because the latter is not growing at the expense of PSOE (at least not in great numbers). CIS seems to confirm that C's is the "Podemos of the Right".

4) Podemos losses ground in "old middle classes" and "skilled workers" socioeconomic groups. However, Podemos retains support among the "upper and middle-upper class" and "unskilled workers" categories. C's is growing primarily in the "upper and middle-upper class" and the "new middle class" segments.

5) Podemos and C's approach each other in territorial implementation. Podemos has lost more support in small towns than in populous centres, while C's is progressing in small and middle-sized towns.

6) Public perception on the economic situation is more positive, but optimism seems to be associated with a perception that party system is not going to be the same. In short, people has hope in a new time in politics.

7) Gender gap. C's is the most 'masculine' party (62 women for every 100 men), while PSOE is the more 'feminine'. There's a large proportion of women among undecided voters (more than 150 for every 100 men).

[Velasco]

In Barcelona, could you tell me what the main discrepancies between Barcelona en Comú and the CUP are ? I guess the CUP haven't changed their stance about not wanting to support any governing coalition whatsoever ?

Basically it's that Guanyem, ICV and Podemos are not enough pro-independence. Those organisations have supporters of Catalan independence in their ranks (as well people opposed, federalists, etc), but the 'process' is not a priority in the BEC platform. However, in the neighbouring Badalona Podemos and the CUP are running in the same list. Alliances and "popular unity" lists vary in each municipality, in Catalonia and in the rest of Spain. It's a mess.

[Velasco]

The campaign started on Friday. Regional and local elections are set on Sunday May 24. In the pic below, C's candidate for Mayor of Barcelona Carina Mejías and national leader Albert Rivera in the campaign's opening act.

The "centrality of the board"* is at stake for Ciudadanos, says El Diario. The Albert Rivera party has the continuity of several PP regional premiers in its hands. According to the CIS macro survey released this week, premiers Maria Dolores de Cospedal (Castilla-La Mancha), Luisa Fernanda Rudi (Aragon) and Alberto Fabra (Valencia) will depend on the orange party to stay in power. As well candidates Cristina Cifuentes and Esperanza Aguirre, whom seek to be Madrid premier and Mayor of Madrid respectively, will need the acquiescence of Ciudadanos to govern. However, everything points that C's will be extremely cautious, trying to avoid supporting PP governments in a systematic manner. The C's candidate for Mayor of Granada Luis Salvador told to the on-line paper that C's will do what they think is "in the best interest for citizens". Orange people repeat constantly that they are going to change the very nature of governance, but they don't give further details defining what this "new style" means. Calculated ambiguity responds to the wish of not compromising C's chances in the next autumn's general election. If they become in a sort of preferential ally for PP, many people would wonder what's the difference between casting a vote for the blue and the orange party.

A PSOE official thinks that it's impossible to know how far C's will go in maneuvering. They will do what they consider the best for them and not the best for citizens, says the socialist. PSOE resents the delay in the investiture of incumbent premier Susana Díaz in Andalusia, caused by the "lock" imposed by PP, Podemos and C's. Days ago, it seemed that PSOE and C's had reach an agreement and socialists seemed prone to sign the anti-corruption measures proposed by the oranges. Now it's clear that the governance in the most populous Spanish region won't be unlocked until the May 24 elections have passed. PP, on the other hand, tries to counterattack C's mentioning to the inexperience of orange candidates. C's could be more of a problem than a godsend, think people in Rajoy's entourage. Esperanza Aguirre, who despises the Spanish PM even tough she was appointed candidate by him, is making constantly nods to Ciudadanos.

In other news, a Metroscopia poll released yesterday by El País predicts an excellent result forthe orange party in Castilla-La Mancha. Take it with some grains of salt, keeping in mind that the pollster and El País strike as Rivera friendly.

Pablo Iglesias was yesterday in Barcelona supporting Ada Colau (Barcelona en Comú), the best placed mayoral candidate according to CIS survey. They held a rally in Nou Barris, the poorest of Barcelona's municipal districts, as well a place where thousands of people have been evicted from their homes and a traditional stronghold of the Catalan socialists (PSC). Ada represents "a big deal of hope for Barcelona and the whole country", said the Podemos leader. Iglesias charged against PP, portraying the ruling party as a bunch of thieves and corrupts. "We don't want to be like them, we are not willing to be". Iglesias told the audience that he's a "patriot" and a "sovereignist", but stressing that his concept of patriotism and sovereignty is that hospitals work... as opposed to Rodrigo Rato (PP) and Jordi Pujol (CiU), whose patriotism lies on Swiss bank accounts.  

* _{The "centrality of the board" is an expression popularized by Ïñigo Errejón (Podemos).}

[Velasco]

Wow, the Metroscopia poll for Aragon is shocking. Perhaps it's not the most reliable pollster (unless election results say otherwise), but it's amongst the most entertaining. Basically, the poll portrays a three-cornered contest between PP, PSOE and Podemos with C's coming in a strong fourth. Regionalists would be nearly annihilated, if the estimation comes close to the result two weeks from now.

 

Evaluative balance and level of knowledge of the different candidates:

Podemos candidate Pablo Echenique (born in Rosario, Argentina, in 1978) is one of the most popular figures of the emerging party. He is a scientist employed in the CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) and was elected MEP in the May 2014 elections. Afterwards, Echenique led the faction opposed to the organisational model advocated by Pablo Iglesias in the October founding convention, although neither him nor other critics have challenged or questioned Iglesias' leadership. Interviewed by El País, Pablo Echenique states that Podemos is not competing against C's, because they hunt in different fishing grounds. Echenique doesn't discard alliances with the rest of parties to oust PP from regional government, providing that they are willing to assume "a change of direction" in policies.

GESOP poll for the city of Barcelona:

Councilors: CiU 10-11, BEC 8-9, PSC 6-7, PP 5-6, C's 5-6, ERC 4-5, CUP 0-2.

[Velasco]

Juan Carlos Monedero warned yesterday in an interview released by El País that "moderation could disarm Podemos":

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/14/inenglish/1431597082_344157.html

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Despite the quote above says, I'm not sure if Monedero's criticism is directed at Pablo Iglesias or rather to other ideological adversaries in Podemos, namely Íñigo Errejón and Carolina Becansa.

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According to El Diario, Podemos assumes that the surge of Ciudadanos will alter the balance of power. Podemos keeps the campaign design drawn by Errejón and Bescansa, although introducing slight modifications. Pablo Iglesias will attend 8 campaign acts in the regions where Podemos has best chances: Madrid, Valencia, Aragon and Asturias. Five of them will take place in Madrid, including the close of the campaign. Podemos keeps the "transversal" message that emphasizes the "up and down" dichotomy, the social majority suffering the effects of crisis and austerity as opposed to the minority benefited from PP's policies. Pablo Iglesias has been charging towards Esperanza Aguirre, the PP candidate for Mayor of Madrid, calling her "corrupt" and "shower" with mentions to her aristocratic condition (the "blue blood countess"). Podemos still considers PP as the rival to beat, but now is forced to take C's into account. From the initial disdain Iglesias is beginning to criticise some Albert Rivera's "wisecracks", such as the idea that only persons born in the democratic period can play a protagonic role in the "regeneration" of democracy. For Iglesias, who was coupled by the elder Manuela Carmena (an independent proposed by Podemos as candidate for Mayor of Madrid), Rivera's statement was just "stupid".

_{Btw, Íñigo Errejón will be attending a campaign act in my town this evening. I'll try to go, since the man is interesting.}

As for Ciudadanos, there's an interesting article comparing Albert Rivera and his party with Pavel Nikolayevich Miliukov and the Kadets. According to that, Ciudadanos abuses of tacticism and lacks of a coherent national project and strategy. C's worships ambiguity and runs the risk of running in some regions as a right-wing party and in others as a left-wing party,  says the author. It concludes saying that alliance policies are determinant in politics and in the following months the future of Ciudadanos will be at stake. If C's fails there won't be another opportunity and Rivera will share the fate of hapless Miliukov.

http://blogs.elconfidencial.com/espana/mientras-tanto/2015-05-10/el-error-de-albert-rivera-y-el-fracaso-de-los-kadetes_791488/

[Velasco]

I can see PSOE working with Citudanos and even Podemos. But were PP gets the most seats, might they all work togheter? Or will it be PP and C or even PP and PSOE?  What are your thoughts?!

The problem is that nobody knows. PSOE has stated willingness to cooperate with all parties except PP and EH Bildu; regional branches have leeway to negotiate alliances with the rest of forces. The reason for those exceptions is that alliances with the conservative party would be suicidal for PSOE (Podemos could take advantage of 'Grand Coalitions'), as well any kind of cooperation with the left-wing Basque separatist EH Bildu would damage socialists (PP or C's could blame PSOE for dealing with the "heirs of ETA") in Navarre and the Basque Country municipalities. Thus, PP-PSOE coalitions or agreements seem to be discarded. PSOE would like to cooperate with C's. However the orange party is placing harsh conditions for the investiture of Susana Díaz as regional premier in Andalusia. The regional branch has shown signals of willingness to reach an agreement with Andalusian socialists, but Albert Rivera is the man who has the last word in the party. Nothing will be decided until the 24 May elections have passed and right now the possibility of a new election in Andalusia is open. Also, it's hard to know at this moment if C's will allow PP to govern in Madrid, Valencia and other regions where polls say that possibility is in the hands of the Albert Rivera party. Rivera will take special care in not damaging the image of his party until the general election (both PP and PSOE have bad image, so in neither case C's will join coalition governments with them). The problem for C's is that any course of action will have consequences, either reaching agreements with PP, PSOE or both or not compromising at all. As said in the previous post, there are voices already criticising the Albert Rivera's "ambiguity" and "tacticism".

The relationship between PSOE and Podemos is complicated, to say the least. Both parties are competing for the centre-left sector of the electorate. Also, socialists resent that Podemos people refer them as a part of the establishment ("la casta"), as well they don't like the "arrogance" of Pablo Iglesias and other national leaders. However, PSOE territorial leaders (the "barons") have resigned themselves to the idea that they will need Podemos to govern in some regions. The Podemos regional branches will sell their support at a high price and they are not free of internal tension. After the Andalusian election, some people in the national leadership (the 'possibilistic' faction apparently led by Íñigo Errejón) seemed to be prone to reach an agreement with PSOE and stated that the conditions put by the regional branch led by Teresa Rodríguez, in order to allow socialists to govern, were only "suggestions". Rodríguez protested and Pablo Iglesias rectified the statement made by other member of the national executive. In the region of Madrid things would be somewhat easier, given the good relationship between the candidates of PSOE, Podemos and IU. However, polls deny in most cases the possibility of a left-wing majority and the governability would depend on Ciudadanos. There are regions like Valencia where left-wing coalitions could involve four parties (if they get a majority) and even more in the Balearic Islands. It's not easy to say what is going to happen.

[Velasco]

According to El Diario, there's panic in PP before the "change of cycle". Populares hope to get enough votes to preserve some regional and local bastions, providing that Ciudadanos grants them pardon. An angry José María Aznar claimed on Sunday that Spain and the Popular Party need "historical continuity", while he admonished the bad treatment received by his wife and incumbent Mayor of Madrid, Ana Botella, who has been ignored by her party and by candidate Esperanza Aguirre. Some polls suggest that the race is open in Madrid, Valencia and Barcelona. According to the last Metroscopia poll, Esperanza Aguirre has not victory ensured while challenger Manuela Carmena (Ahora Madrid) seems to be bridging the gap. Carmena met recently with former president of Uruguay José Mújica.

Another Metroscopia poll for Barcelona places Ada Colau (BComú) ahead in the mayoral race.

In Catalonia, campaign issues range from a war on flags...

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/15/inenglish/1431676542_954337.html

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... to the xenophobic drive of Catalan PP. Incumbent mayor of Badalona Xavier García Albiol promises to "clean up the city" without saying explicitly what he wants to clean. Sadly, García Albiol is polling quite well (according to GESOP) in that city located north of Barcelona. In the very Barcelona, PP handed out explicitly xenophobic leaflets in the neighbourhood of El Raval, a place with a high share of immigrants and the main exponent of the city's "multiculturalism".

A MyWord poll for Valencia predicts heavy losses for PP, to the point that C's support might not be enough to retain a majority both in the regional parliament and the Valencia Town Hall.

However, there are polls for every taste. For instance, Sigma Dos predicts better results for PP in Madrid and Valencia, as well places Maria Dolores de Cospedal on the verge of a majority in the Castilla-La Mancha regional election.

[Velasco]

Man the PSC and PPC are getting eaten alive in Catalonia. :0 also lmao at Spanish fleggers

Why can't Compromis and Podemos run on a common list?

There are bad prospects for PP and PSC, indeed. However (if we have to trust in a series of polls conducted by GESOP and released by El Periódico) PP resists in Badalona and PSC in several metropolitan municipalities such as l'Hospitalet and Santa Coloma, as well in Lleida and Tarragona (both are provincial capitals). The flegg issue is indeed stupid, keeping in mind that the discussion on the separatist "process" has been calmed down as of late.

Podemos decided to run alone nationwide in the regional elections. There might be a certain incompatibility between Podemos and Compromís, due to the peripheral nationalist component of the latter. The Valencian Nationalist Bloc (BNV) is the major partner in the Compromís coalition, although they are moderate in their nationalism if compared with their separatist Catalan counterparts and candidate Mónica Oltra is not from the BNV ranks. Oltra was formerly in IU and currently leads a small party called Valencian's People Initiative (IdPV), which is associated with Equo (the Spanish greens). There is an obvious proximity between Oltra and Podemos.

[Velasco]

Uff... that's hard to predict. Right now there's a total deadlock. My impression is that Susana Díaz would prefer to reach a stability agreement with Ciudadanos rather than Podemos. Díaz is more a centrist with a sensibility for social issues than a left-winger. In her investiture speech she made nods with both C's and Podemos and launched some anti-corruption proposals consistent with those of the orange party. However, she didn't yield to the requirement made by C's and Podemos on the immediate withdrawal of former premiers Chaves and Griñán. To be fair, that's not entirely in her hands and both won't continue active in politics once their terms expire. Podemos, on the other hand, complains because Díaz is not prone to reach an agreement on their proposals (not contracting banks that evict people and a reduction of confidence posts in regional administration). Díaz seems to believe that her victory was a mandate for her to govern, while other people think that the result (the worst for PSOE in the historical series) was a mandate to implement changes in the style of governance. I think there's a mix of  of political calculation, a certain arrogance in the contending parties and a political culture based on confrontation instead of pact.  I'd say the unlock is mainly in the hands of Albert Rivera, but we'll see.

[Velasco]

To give an idea on how uncertain is the result of the upcoming elections, the graph below shows the percentage of undecided voters according to the last CIS survey in the 13 regions holding elections, as well in the cities of Madrid and Barcelona:

[Velasco]

El Mundo today*: " ETA prisoners want Podemos in the government". The subheadline says: "They are just like us, but Spaniards". According to that, prisoners encourage their group of friends to vote for the guy with the ponytail (Pablo Iglesias) and advise EH Bildu abertzales that they must not run in the general election and endorse Podemos. Supposedly, the 'scoop' is based on private conversations recorded at prison.

The Spanish paper is definitely reaching the level of glorious tabloid papers like the News of the World, The Sun or The National Enquirer

*El Mundo Today is an online satiric paper in Spanish. Highly recommendable (and more serious than El Mundo, it seems)

http://www.elmundotoday.com/

[Velasco]

Televised debate in the governmental Tele Madrid between the mayoral candidates running in the Spanish capital. Shame.

From left to right: Esperanza Aguirre (PP, dressed in orange), Manuela Carmena (Ahora Madrid), Daniel Morcillo (IU's number 5), Antonio Miguel Carmona (PSOE), Begoña Villacís (C's, in orange) and Javier Ortega-Smith (Vox).

Esperanza Aguirre had a face-to-face debate with Manuela Carmena. Consistently with that front page in El Mundo, Aguirre accused Carmena (a retired judge) of releasing members of ETA from prison, among the usual mentions to 'bolivarian' regimes and similar stuff. Carmena, whom never loses her temper, replied that PP candidate lacks of intellectual rigour and states feeling embarrassed because it's a "pity" that Aguirre feels compelled to say such simplistic things. "Everybody knows that I've been fighting for freedom and democracy all my life", said the Ahora Madrid candidate. Among other things, Carmena was judge of the Supreme Court, UN rapporteur, received a national human rights award and was co-founder of a labour law firm which suffered a terrorist attack from the far right in 1977 (Atocha killings).  It's all so sickening that is better leaving at that. One could say that polls placing Carmena side by side with Aguirre in the mayoral race have some plausibility.

Video here:

http://www.eldiario.es/rastreador/Carmena-Aguirre-sorprende-actitud-reconocer_6_389921011.html

After that poll showing Aguirre in a technical tie with Carmena was released, the leader of PP in Madrid stated that "if Podemos wins, it will be the last time Spaniards vote freely".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/18/inenglish/1431957479_408167.html

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[Velasco]

Campaign news.

"Clash" in the mayoral debate:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/20/inenglish/1432112700_244670.html

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Socialist candidate for Madrid mayor moots local ID cards for non-residents (Albert Rivera won't like it):

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/20/inenglish/1432115697_622775.html

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PM Mariano Rajoy lives in Wonderland: "Who’s talking about bailouts, recession or unemployment?"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/19/inenglish/1432051165_330439.html

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Young, elder and undecided women are key in the battles for Madrid and Barcelona, says another analysis on CIS survey (in Spanish)

http://www.eldiario.es/piedrasdepapel/Madrid-Barcelona_6_389921005.html

Interesting prediction based on average polling with graphs and stuff in El Español, the new digital vehicle of the  ineffable Pedro J Ramírez (the machiavellian former editor of El Mundo who apparently was sacked because of pressures from La Moncloa).

Madrid: Aguirre or Carmena? Average polling is not as optimistic as the last Metroscopia poll; there's disparity in estimations. Measured: Metroscopia, NC Report, Sigma Dos and MyWord.

PP 34.5% (22 councilors), AM 21.8% (14), PSOE 18.4% (11), C's 16% (10), IU 4.1% (-)

http://www.elespanol.com/actualidad/aguirre-o-carmena-una-prediccion-de-sus-votos-y-sus-alianzas/

Barcelona: Trias or Colau? Mesured: Metroscopia, Sigma Dos, GAD3 and Feedback.

CiU 23.1% (10), BComú 20.2% (9), C's 13.8% (6), PSC 12.1% (5), ERC 11% (5), PP 9.9% (4), CUP 5.6% (2)

http://www.elespanol.com/actualidad/trias-o-colau-una-prediccion-de-sus-votos-y-sus-alianzas/

The delegation of El Periódico in Andorra will release daily trackings for Barcelona conducted by GESOP, now that it's illegal doing so in Spain.

[Velasco]

The 'forbidden' polls from Andorra (this is not a Spanish site, so I guess I'm not breaking the law). Technical tie between Xavier Trias (CiU) and Ada Colau (BComú). PP, PSC and C's are tied in third place, ERC is technically tied with those parties and CUP is on the edge of the 5% threshold.

Barcelona City Hall (41 councilors) GESOP / El Periòdic

CiU 23% (10-11), BComú 21% (9-10), PP 11.9% (5-6), PSC 11.7% (5-6), C's 11.5% (5-6), ERC 10.5% (4-5), CUP 5% (0-2).

Direct vote intention: BComú 20.3%, CiU 18.8%, ERC 10.3%, C's 7.3%, PSC 6%, PP 3.8%, CUP 3%

http://www.elperiodic.ad/noticia/44170/auguris-a-el-periodic

[Velasco]

According to El País, Ciudadanos might be more willing to forge agreements with PSOE than PP.  I ignore to what extent the news is wishful thinking, but...

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/21/inenglish/1432199149_328545.html

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Albert Rivera denied in an interview in El Diario that he's a man on the right, as well criticised the Podemos' "excessive calculation" that might take its toll to them. People thinking in C's as the "crutch" in which PSOE lies in Andalusia and PP in the rest of Spain is mistaken, said Rivera.

However, PSOE and C's are at odds in Andalusia. According to an influential figure in the surroundings of the orange party:

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A week ago premier Susana Díaz lost the third vote in the regional parliament, after talks between groups stalled. Podemos C's and IU said that PSOE failed to accept any of their conditions, while the PP says its vote is conditioned by a new inquiry into the reopening of the Aznalcóllar mine (it produced zinc and silver and was owned by Boliden AB, a Swedish company), which created a major environmental disaster in 1998 when a toxic waste reservoir burst around the nature preserve of Doñana National Park.

According to the same news and a statement made by Íñigo Errejón, Podemos expects to negotiate with PSOE after May 24 in order to eject PP from regional and local governments.

On the other hand Esperanza Aguirre and Rita Barberá, the veteran politicians standing as PP mayoral candidates for Madrid and Valencia, are surrounded by contentious issues. Infolibre leaked yesterday Aguirre's tax returns. The leader of PP in Madrid earned a total amount of 374,000 Euros in 2013, 369 thousand from a talent search firm called Seelinger & Conde and the remaining 5 thousand from "games of chance". Her high emoluments shocked people and many point ironically that Aguirre has showed little aptitudes for headhunting while she was Madrid premier, given that her partners Francisco Granados and Ignacio González are involved in corruption scandals and regional PP is rotten by multiple corrupt plots. Aguirre has claimed several times that her income was so meagre that she could hardly pay energy bills. PP candidate for Mayor of Madrid felt outraged by the leakage and filed a complaint with the Prosecutor General's Office alleging violation of the right to privacy; the Treasury is about to open an inquiry. Aguirre was very local in criticising Juan Carlos Monedero (Podemos) when another leakage revealed that he received a certain amount of money in exchange for consultancy works; funnily enough she said her PSOE rival in the mayoral race is "rich", because he gets two salaries (Antonio Miguel Carmona is member of the regional assembly and university professor).

Incumbent Mayoress of Valencia Rita Barberá is involved in several controversies, being the last an allegation made by Compromís accusing her of misuse of public funds to pay her travel expenses (including bodyguards) and attend PP acts. Hotel, travel and restaurant bills, as well gifts defrayed by the Valencia cabinet office, are published in the Compromís site. Tonight Mariano Rajoy attended a rally in support of Valencia regional premier Albert Fabra and Ms Barberá. No mentions to corruption affecting the Valencian PP.

Pablo Iglesias attended a crowded rally in Zaragoza, in support of candidate for Aragón premier Pablo Echenique. Podemos people is enthusiastic: "Pablo is back".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=48&v=8us4tBPKdlU

There's a very detailed map by municipality in El País showing the current share of the local power in Spain. Includes parties placing first and second in the 2011 elections and vote share by municipality for PP, PSOE, IU, UPyD, CiU and PNV.

 http://elpais.com/especiales/2015/elecciones-autonomicas-municipales/graficos/municipios/