Spanish elections and politics

[Former President tack50]

Even more shocking polls! Not sure how accurate they'll be (Spanish pollsters have failed miserably reciently) but whatever. From oldest (yesterday) to newest (today):

Invymark for La Sexta



Feedback for elnacional.cat

ERC: 24% (35-36)
JxCat: 17.1% (25)
CUP: 6.4% (8 )

Cs: 22.8% (31-32)
PSC: 13.5% (19-20)
PP: 6.2% (7)

CeC: 9.3% (11)

Secessionists: 47.5% (68-69)
Unionists: 42.5% (55-56)
Neutral/others: 10% (11)

Internal PP poll

ERC: 36
JxCat: 22
CUP: 8

Cs: 30
PSC: 23
PP: 11

CeC: 5

Gesop for El Periódico de Catalunya





Secessionists: 45.8%
Unionists: 43.8%
Others: 10.4%

Of these 4 polls the Invymark-La Sexta and Gesop-El Periódico ones are probably the most reliable. The elnacional.cat one might be good but it may have a secessionsist bias. The PP internal is almost certainly junk. Lol at CeC at 5 seats

[Former President tack50]

^
There could be several. I guess that's it's a combination of:

-PSC is the only pure unionist left wing force. Podemos seems to have moved closer to the secessionists after all these events so some Podemos voters may be going back to PSC

-PSC did an alliance with Unió, a conservative nationalist but not secessionist party. PSC seems to also have adopted some soft nationalism. So some soft nationalists that don't want independence might be willing to vote PSC

[Former President tack50]

^
There could be several. I guess that's it's a combination of:

-PSC is the only pure unionist left wing force. Podemos seems to have moved closer to the secessionists after all these events so some Podemos voters may be going back to PSC

-PSC did an alliance with Unió, a conservative nationalist but not secessionist party. PSC seems to also have adopted some soft nationalism. So some soft nationalists that don't want independence might be willing to vote PSC

Do you think the traditional Baix Llogrebat non-catalanist industrial parts in Barcelona comarca will vote PSC or switch to Arrimadas and C's?

Also the vote transfers seem to suggest they are benefiting from CatCom's collapse as you suggest.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171205/433434206682/elecciones-catalanas-sangria-votos-xavier-garcia-albiol-ines-arrimadas-cis.html

They already switched in 2015 for the most part. I could certainly see them switching back to PSC though.

[Former President tack50]

Yikes! The polls are a mess.

Tack, we are following here very carefully the elections because, as we say here, "When Spain sneezes, Portugal catches pneumonia", and the main doubt we have here is what kind of coalitions can emerge from this. Can PSC and ERC make some kind of agreement to force constitutional reforms, or is ERC to much cornered in the independent side to even dialogue with PSC? Looking to the overall picture, it seems to me that PSC can play a major role on what kind of government Catalonia will have.

To be fair, unless Portugal also has some secessionist region I wouldn't read much into this regional election. Spain's and Portugal's politics are somewhat comparable I guess, particularly in non-nationalist communities. But definitely not Catalan politics.

In theory a PSC-ERC alliance wouldn't be that difficult or unprecedented. Catalonia was ruled by a PSC-ERC-ICV allliance between 2003 and 2010 after all. I'm not sure if they would be able to work together. Remember that a constitutional reform would need the support not just of PSOE and Podemos but also PP and a referendum in all of Spain. So support in exchange for reforms is unlikely.

For all what's worth PP has been quite negative about reforms, saying that "they can't be to make secessionists happy" and the like. And even if it somehow passed the referendum might be a challenge and the campaign would be very ugly. It seems like the secessionists have sparked some sort of renaissance of Spanish nationalism.

I agree that PSC will be very important. But it seems that the most likely scenario if secessionists don't get their majority is a new election some time in early autumn of 2018. In that case the hypothetical coalitions would be:

-Secessionists+Podemos abstention. Very viable if ERC wins the election and picks their candidate. However that would certify Podemos' death in most of Spain so they'll be careful. If Puigdemont somehow manages to lead the secessionists it won't happen

-ERC-PSC-CeC: Somewhat viable. I can see ERC going for it, but PSC would have to at least accept a legal referendum which would cause caos and infighting inside PSOE (again). And of course numbers don't seem favourable anyways. They might get CUP to abstain but really I doubt it.

-PSC-CeC-Cs-PP: Somewhat viable if PSC somehow becomes the largest unionist party. I could see them being just left wing enough and just unionist enough to get Cs, PP's and Podemos' support. But still unlikely. Impossible if Cs is the largest party.

[Former President tack50]

Well, considering that today was the last day to publish polls we actually got a ton of polls that will appear tomorrow in newspapers (though they seem to have been leaked). Here is the final poll done by every polling company:

20 Minutos

ERC 33-35
CS 32-34
JXCAT 24-26
PSC 20-21
CEC 7-8
CUP 7-8
PP 6-7

http://electomania.es/encuesta-de-20minutos-es-erc-y-ciudadanos-lucharan-por-la-victoria/

NC Report for La Razón

ERC 34 escaños / 22.4%
CS 33 / 21.8%
JxC 25 / 16.1%
PSC 21 / 15.9%
CEC 9 / 7.6%
PP 8 / 7.5%
CUP 7 / 5.8%


http://electomania.es/nc-report-para-la-razon-todos-lejos-de-la-mayoria/

GAD3 for ABC

Cs: 23.2%  (31-32 escaños)
ERC: 20.3% (29-31)
JxCat; 19.5% (29-30)
PSC: 16.3% (22-23)
CeC: 7.5% (8 )
PP: 6.2% (7-8)
CUP: 5.6% (6)

http://electomania.es/abc-arrimadas-ganaria-en-votos-y-escanos/

Sigma Dos for El Mundo



Gesop for El Periódico de Catalunya



Top Position





Podemos internal (from yesterday)



Elnacional.cat (from 2 days ago) (tracker)

[Former President tack50]

My analysis would be that in terms of who will come first it's probably too close to call, with Cs probably being favoured in the popular vote but ERC probably being favoured in terms of seats.

As for the rest, JxCat will take the third place, the question being how close can it get to Cs and ERC. PSC will regain votes and around 21 seats. And finally, there's a 3 way tie for last, with Podemos being slightly better off than the other 2. CUP will lose a little but PP will actually lose half their voters. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost all their non Barcelona seats (though I think they will at least hold 1 in Tarragona)

In terms of blocks, secessionists will almost certainly win both in votes and in seats, though as for whether they will lose their majority it's a tossup.

Finally, apparently there's no exit poll because the last one, for the 2016 general election was ridiculously inaccurate. Polling errors in standard polls are more or less acceptable (within certain margins), but missing in an exit poll, particularly by such a huge and crucial margin was really bad. So IMO good riddance. It's not like we need them, Spain seems to be pretty fast at counting votes. We should get like 95% counted by midnight. Here's a comparison of the exit poll compared to the actual election if anyone cares:

Exit poll





Reality:



They only really got right CC, PNV and PSOE. Everyone else was off in some way or another.

[Former President tack50]

If the pro-Independence forces could not win a majority then which side would the Podemos bloc back?  I cannot imagine Podemos going with a bloc that includes PP.   I assume they are more aligned with the  pro-Independence bloc.  If they do join up with the pro-Independence bloc will they make not going ahead with Independence a condition of their support?  

I don't know. Podemos wants an ERC-PSC-Podemos left wing ambiguous government but neither ERC nor PSC want that. I guess they could abstain, and just allow the side with the most seats (almost certainly nationalists) to govern, but that would be risky for their prospects outside nationalist communities. It might hurt the party a lot outside Catalonia/Basque Country/Navarra and maybe 2 or 3 others.

[Former President tack50]

Also, we got a few more polls from other companies:

MyWord for Cadena SER



Invymark for La Sexta



Elnacional.cat (tracker)



As someone said, seems like Puigdemont's rise has stopped and CUP and PP are in a dead heat, with Podemos not too much above them.

[Former President tack50]

The last polls from the polling companies that hadn't released their final poll yet:

Sociométrica for El Español



GAD3 for ABC



ERC internal



The final polling average ends up being this:

[Former President tack50]

Mysterious Andorran fruit shops strike again!

Mysterious Andorran fruit shop poll (GESOP for El Periòdic de Andorra)

🍋 Junquera 22,1€ (34-35u)
🍊 21,4€ (27-28u)
🥑 AguaCATS 17,5€ (25-26)
🍓 iFresas 17,1€ (23-24)
🍆 BroColau 8,5€ (9-10)
💧 Lanjalbiol 5,4€ (6-7)
🍌 cupNarias 6,1€ (7-8)

http://sondeos.elperiodic.ad/primer-sondeo-elecciones-catalanas-21d.html

They are facing some tough competition from Scottish fruit stands though

Mysterious Scottish fruit shop poll (Feedback for The National) (probably the same tracker as before)

🍊 24,18€ (33u)
🍋 Junquera 20,89€ (30u)
🥑 AguaCATS 19,49€ (28-30u)
🍓 iFresas 13,67€ (17-19u)
🍆 BroColau 7,08€ (8-9u)
🍌 cupNarias 8,28€ (10u)
💧 Lanjalbiol 5,64€ (6u)

http://www.thenational.scot/news/15777408.Stunning_Catalan_poll_predicts_majority_for_pro_independence_parties/

[Former President tack50]

Found a website which tells you who you should vote for in the next Catalan election.

www.elteuvot.org

Anyways my results were:

PSC: 73%
Cs: 71%
CUP: 69%!
Podemos: 68%
ERC: 63%
PP: 57%
JxCat: 51%

[Former President tack50]

Also, El País did some probabilistic model about the Catalan election:









https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/12/18/ratio/1513610647_109254.html

Basically, it seems like secessionists getting a majority is slighly more likely than not, but basically a coin flip, a left wing majority is quite unlikely and a constitutionalist majority is a pipedream.

[Former President tack50]

When does polls close? Any exit polls?  Any links to results ?

Polls close at 8pm Spanish time. (7pm London time, 2pm New York time)

There will be no formal exit polls, but I just saw on TV that there might be some unofficial ones in Twitter or newspapers. Someone from La Vanguardia said they would have some estimation.

As for links to results, Mike88 already posted them

For all what's worth here are the final illegal polls:



The one with a graph was done by Netquest for L'independant (apparently a regional French newspaper based in Perpignan). The other 2 were for Andorra and Scotland.

[Former President tack50]

Interesting. It seems like at this time turnout is actually down compared to 2015!

Turnout at 13:00, 2017: 34.62%
Turnout 13:00, 2015: 35.10%

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171221/433795520166/participacion-elecciones-cataluna.html

Then again it might be because most people plan on voting after they end their workday during the afternoon. Remember that 2015 was held on a Sunday while this election is being held on a workday.



By province, turnout is basically flat in Barcelona, slightly down in Tarragona, slightly up in Lleida and 3 points down in Girona. Idk why Girona isn't flat like the other 3.

[Former President tack50]

Turnout by province (2015 un brackets)

Barcelona 68.32% (63.21%)
Girona 68.16% (65.08%)
Lleida 66.54% (61.11%)
Tarragona 66.46% (61.78%)

Turnout decreses in the following comarcas: Berguedà, Moianès, Pallars Sobirà and Alta Ribagorça

Cs was the party most favoured by the turnout increase in the 2015 election

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/aumento-participacion-electoral-beneficio-Cs_0_718828760.html

We'll see how it works this time in the Barcelona Metropolitan region, where Cs and PSC are fighting for the non-nationalist vote.

Seems like the few that have lower turnout are pro-secessionist



Pallars Sobira: 78% secessionist in 2015
Alta Ribagorça: 58%
Bergueda: 78%
Moianes: 77%

[Former President tack50]

Here's the poll, done by GAD3 for Grupo Godó (La Vanguardia, 8TV and probably a radio station)



Worth noting that it is not a proper exit poll. Instead it's just a regular poll, but one that took interviews up until the last possible second. They apparently interviewed people until 1h ago.

[Former President tack50]

2.25% of the vote is in
Turnout thus far: 81.83%

JxCat 31.40% (43)
ERC 23.16% (33)
Cs: 18.78% (27)
PSC: 10.63% (16)
CUP:  5.57% (7)
ECP: 5.33% (6)
PP: 3.79% (3)

[Former President tack50]

Yeah, I agree that JxCat seems like it will have a good night. I wouldn't be surprised if they were the number 1 secessionist force. Also PP seems like it will be completely decimated. They won't drop out of parliament but they'll be lucky if they get 4 seats. They might not even have their own parliamentary group!

11.74% of the vote is now in:

Cs: 24.32% (35)
JxCat: 23.53% (35)
ERC: 21.50% (31)
PSC: 13.75% (18)
ECP: 6.68% (8 )
CUP: 4.51% (5)
PP: 4.17% (3)

Secessionists 71 seats (-1 compared to 2015). Majority of 3

[Former President tack50]

Yup, there's barely any vote from Barcelona proper. Keep in mind that the best unionist stronghold isn't the city itself but the suburbs, the "red belt" as it's known (former PSC voting areas). Barcelona city isn't that unionist. They voted 47.2% for secessionists in 2015, compared to 47.8% in all of Catalonia.

[Former President tack50]

35% of the vote is in

JxCat: 22.56% (35)
Cs: 25.03% (34)
ERC: 21.55% (32)
PSC: 13.81% (18)
CatComú: 6.97% (8 )
CUP: 4.37% (5)
PP: 4.15% (3)

Most commenters are saying that secessionists will keep their majority.

[Former President tack50]

52% in

Cs: 25.29% (35)
JxCat: 22.19% (34)
ERC: 21.84% (32)
PSC: 13.83% (18)
CUP: 4.35% (4)
PP: 4.17% (4)

From the few changes seems like there's a PP-JxCat swing in Tarragona and another one between Cs and ERC somewhere else.

[Former President tack50]

What a mess these results. C's will have a massive lead in the popular vote, but could have fewer seats than JxCat. Plus, the independence parties are poised to have the same total vote they had in 2015: 47%.

It seems that is related to the d'hondt method rewarding the larger parties and despite its large vote share C is poor 3rd place in 2 of the 4 regions.

Technically speaking it's not because of D'Hondt, but because of malapportionment. Barcelona has less seats than it would be fairly entitled to. Lleida's votes are worth twice as much as Barcelona's. In theory well apportioned seats (or better yet, only one at-large constituency) would yield proportional results even with D'Hondt

Though to be fair Catalonia is far from the worst offender in this regard. If you want to look at bad regional elections in Spain, check out the Canary Islands (where the 3rd voted party gets the most seats and 0.6% gives you 3 seats but 5.9% gives you none) or Castille-La Mancha (where 8.5% of the vote gives you 0 seats)

[Former President tack50]

^
No, it seems that in the mean time JxCat took back a seat from PSC (who is now at 17)

Also, an interesting side effect of this elections is that PP and CUP will have to share a joint parliamentary group. Neither has enough seats for an individual parliamentary group (they'd need 5), so they'll both go to the mixed group.

That basically means that they'll have to share their talking time, their seats in commitees, etc.

[Former President tack50]

^
No, it seems that in the mean time JxCat took back a seat from PSC (who is now at 17)

Also, an interesting side effect of this elections is that PP and CUP will have to share a joint parliamentary group. Neither has enough seats for an individual parliamentary group (they'd need 5), so they'll both go to the mixed group.

That basically means that they'll have to share their talking time, their seats in commitees, etc.

They can do this despite the fact that their platforms are polar opposites of each other ?

It's not a matter of whether they can or not. It's simply what the rules of the Catalan parliament say. For reference in the national congress you have both Bildu (Basque secessionists) as well as UPN (anti Basque Navarra party, contests elections with PP) in the mixed group, who are also polar opposites.

[Former President tack50]

Also here's a map by municipality

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/elecciones/20171221/433800521201/mapa-resultados-elecciones-catalanas-21d.html

JxCat wins most of the interior, Cs wins the coastal towns and the Barcelona and Tarragona metro areas. ERC wins mostly the south. PSC wins 2 municipalities in Aran with really tiny populations (15 and 10 voters for PSC; 60 and 43 voters respectively)