Spanish elections and politics

[jaichind]

PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.

I think this is the opening bid.  The threat of another election will, I think, push C to most likely join PP and PSOE to abstain (or at least part of the PSOE MPs which is good enough.)  We will see how this plays as Rajoy plays the waiting game. 

[jaichind]

Felipe Gonzalez Urges PSOE Not to Block Rajoy Minority Govt
Thursday, July 7, 2016 02:55 AM
by Charles Penty
(Bloomberg) -- Former Socialist Prime Minister Felipe Gonzalez said in an article in El Pais newspaper that if necessary his party should not block a minority govt led by acting PM Mariano Rajoy.
Socialists role should be as a “responsible opposition” to PP; party should not enter a coalition with Rajoy, Gonzalez says
Everyone agrees that third round of elections in Spain is not an option: Gonzalez

[jaichind]

Spanish caretaker Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy studying formulas to dissolve parliament and call third election if there’s no government by September, El Mundo newspaper reports, citing unnamed sources.

[jaichind]

PP Would Win Up to 144 Seats in 3rd Elections: La Razon Poll

(Bloomberg) -- People’s Party would win up to 144 seats if third elections held in Spain from 137 seats now, La Razon reports, citing opinion poll by NC Report.
Socialists would win 83-85 seats vs 85 now; Unidos Podemos up to 72 seats vs 71 now; Ciudadanos 30-31 seats vs 32
Voter participation would drop to 61% from 66%

[jaichind]

Spain Prefers Socialist Abstention to Avoid New Vote: Pais Poll
 (Bloomberg) -- Opinion poll show 66% of Spaniards would prefer Socialists to abstain in confidence vote to allow Acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to govern rather than hold new elections, El Pais reports.
70% think Rajoy should step aside if doing so would facilitate the formation of a government, newspaper reports, citing poll by Metroscopia

[jaichind]

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2016/08/22/57ba0c4822601df33c8b459e.html

As much as 54% of PSOE voters believe party should abstain if PP and C reach a pact for formation of Spanish govt, El Mundo reports, citing opinion poll. 55% of PSOE voters prefer PP-led govt now instead of third round of elections.

[jaichind]

http://www.larazon.es/espana/pp-y-c-s-sumarian-mayoria-absoluta-CD13454042#

PP would win up to 146 seats if third elections held in Spain from 137 seats now, La Razon reports, citing opinion poll by NC Report.  PSOE would win 82-85 seats vs 85 now; Podemos 67-70 seats vs 71 now, C 30-31 seats vs 32
In theory, PP and C will then have majority.

[jaichind]

Is not the Basque Country elections one way for PP to get closer to a majority?  Whereas the 2012 results gave BNP and PSOE a majority of seats now that same combination most likely will not get a majority.  BNP will need PP's support to pass a budget.  If so then PP can then demand BNP back PP at the center.  If this were to take place would this not put more pressure one PSOE in the center ?

[jaichind]

_{I assume that "BNP" means "Basque Nationalist Party"}

Yes. Sorry for bad use of their abbreviation.  I know it should be EAJ/PNV but I just typed what came to my mind since in English they are the Basque Nationalist Party.   

Thanks for your info on how the Basque Parliament works. 

[jaichind]

Another angle where today's election might affect national alignment is if PSOE does poorly then that could trigger a coup against Sanchez within PSOE which in turn might alter the PSOE policy toward PP with respect to abstaining in the next vote of confidence.

[jaichind]

Where are links to results ?

[jaichind]

Looks like PP over-performing exit polls in  Galicia so far

[jaichind]

35% counted in Galicia:

PP: 51.49% 44
PSOE: 17.95% 13
En Marea: 15.67% 12
BNG: 8.12% 6
C's: 2.88% 0

[jaichind]

77% counted in Galicia:

PP: 48.52% 41
PSOE: 18.04% 14
En Marea: 18.22% 14
BNG: 8.33% 6
C's: 3.23% 0

Convergence to exit polls although it seems PP will outperform the exit polls vote share even if it does not exceed exit polls in terms of seats.

[jaichind]

90% counted in Galicia:

PP: 47.98% 42
En Marea: 18.68% 14
PSOE: 17.89% 13
BNG: 8.36% 6
C's: 3.32% 0

[jaichind]

It seems that if there is a third election this winter and the PSOE is in the shape it is in today the PP should emerge with a majority by itself and Podemos  would become the main Leftist opposition party.  PSOE would be wise to make a deal with PP while there is till or else their leverage will go down from here.

[jaichind]

PSOE would be wise to make a deal with PP while there is till or else their leverage will go down from here.

In which terms? Unconditional surrender? After this coup, the PSOE's ability to make an acceptable deal with the PP has dropped to zero. On the other hand, Rajoy wanted a third election from minute one. 

I agree it might be too late but it should work something like this: PSOE will say "we will abstain for the greater good of Spain and the Spanish people if the PP government would implement policies A B and C.  If PP rejects this deal then it is on PP that a third election will take place."  As it is where it is unconditional non-support of a PP government puts the pressure and blame on PSOE for a lack of government.  I do think it might be too late for this as this revolt has robbed PSOE leverage to do something like this and look credible. 

[jaichind]

Even if PSOE now offers to abstain under its new leadership paving the way for a PP government, is there not a chance that PP will maneuver things in a way to provoke a third election anyway just to take advantage of the current split in PSOE? 

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s Popular Party would win 159 seats in the 350-seat parliament, up from 137, according to poll by GAD3 published by newspaper ABC.
Socialist Party would fall to 18.6% vs 22.7% in previous elections, seats would decline to 68 from current 85
Podemos coalition would be down to 20.8% from 21.1%, w/ 69 seats from 71
Ciudadanos would fall to 11.9% from 13.1% and its seats in parliament would drop to 25 from 32

[jaichind]

Spanish Socialists prepare to end political logjam

https://www.ft.com/content/0a5c2522-96ba-11e6-a1dc-bdf38d484582

"Barring a late surprise,the committee is expected to instruct the party’s members of parliament to abstain in a crucial vote on Mariano Rajoy’s candidacy for a second term as prime minister. That would be enough to secure another mandate for the veteran centre-right leader and draw a line under Spain’s political deadlock."

"In a clear sign that cohesion is breaking down, the Catalan branch of the party has made clear it will vote against Mr Rajoy no matter what the federal committee decides on Sunday. The powerful Andalusian branch, meanwhile, announced this week that it wants Socialist deputies to abstain and let Mr Rajoy form a government."

I think the pressure on PSOE to abstain in a vote for a PP government would be quite large.  Over time that is the most likely outcome.

Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.  Of course we will see what takes place tomorrow.  One way or another PSOE will be internally split pretty badly

[jaichind]

Socialists give go-ahead to Spanish minority government
Madrid (DPA) -- Spain is set to form a government after months of negotiations and two inconclusive elections after the country's Socialists say they will not oppose a minority government headed by the ruling centre-right People's Party.

Rajoy will now get another term as prime minister.

[jaichind]

I suspect now with  Rajoy forming the government the situation will not bt stable and we will be headed toward a mid-term election most likely toward the end of 2017 where the vote will most likely polarize around PP and Podemos.

[jaichind]

PP is gonna suffer majorly for this at the polls, secession or not.  Rajoy is done.

Are you sure about that.  I can see PP gaining in places like Andalusia, Extremadura and Castile and León as a result of this. 

[jaichind]

Catalonia crisis pushed C above Podemos in latest poll



https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2017-10-14/independencia-cataluna-estimacion-de-voto-ciudadanos-podemos-pp-psoe_1460752/

[jaichind]

I have to imagine the recent events would push PSOE support to both Podemos and PP/C in non-Catalonia Spain.  Would be eager to see post-Oct 27 polls.