Spanish elections and politics

[Zanas]

Podemos's surge took a large swathe from IU (the leftists - brown), UpyD (anti-nationalist liberals - purple) and healthy amounts from the major two. They also seem to have activated many youths who would otherwise not vote.

I would argue that Podemos actually gathered very few previous UPyD voters. The appeals are simply too far apart. Correct me if I'm wrong, Velasco ?

[Zanas]

well, upyd did start to crater in the polls around podemos's rise. I imagine it was picking up a healthy amount of protest votes from the perpetually dissatisfied (and remember Diaz is an ex-PSOE person) secular left.

Polls don't work that way. When a party starts to rise at the same time as another starts to fall, it doesn't mean the votes are trasnferring from the latter to the former. Concomitance doesn't equal correlation. But I may be wrong, it may actually be the case in that particular instance, we'll have to ask our more advised Spanish members. But don't expect it to always work that way, but I'm sure you know better.

[Zanas]

Maximum prison terms in Spain are currently set at 40 years without review for the most dangerous crimes. Under the new law, review of life sentences can take place after an inmate serves between 25 and 35 years of their term and depending on the crime.

Inb4 'Muricans come in saying "Whaaaaat??"

[Zanas]

I would like to ask the opinion of our fellow Spaniards on the matter of C's : do you, as a gut-feeling and knowing what you know about your country's present political situation, feel that they are more realistically polling 5-6 or 13-15 nationally ? Because it seems to me like they are polling dramatically in general election polls, but the numbers just don't add up when you take it to the regional levels, a bit like Podemos, as a matter of fact.

[Zanas]

How much would you say Podemos has to cross in Andalucía to get respect nationally and the feeling that they are a worthwhile force ? 20 % ? 15 %

And why is Cádiz their best result ? Is it a left-wing stronghold in general ? I always thought of it rather as a sort of Nice or Toulon conservative city, but I admit I never looked into it.

[Zanas]

So how are things looking ?

[Zanas]

So polls are all over the place right now. Podemos is polling between 12 and 22, C's are consistently polling in the high 10s, UPyD seems to have basically vanished from the picture, and there are a few polls which show a near four-way race for first place at around 20 amongst PSOE, PP, Podemos and C's...

C's seems not just the flavo of the week, are they here in the 16% or so to stay ? Could Spaniards help us a bit to understand what's going on ?

[Zanas]

MyWord poll for the general election released today. Worrying for Podemos: it falls from first to fourth place. The polling firm is ran by Belén Barreiro, a sociologist who was the head of the Center of Sociological Investigation (CIS) some years ago, during the Zapatero administration. Barreiro is a very smart woman and I think she's quite good in spotting trends. 

It's all still in the margin of error, though the decline is obvious in provincial polls as well. C's is confirmed as the flavor of the moment, inb4 they show up first in a national poll.

[Zanas]

In Barcelona, could you tell me what the main discrepancies between Barcelona en Comú and the CUP are ? I guess the CUP haven't changed their stance about not wanting to support any governing coalition whatsoever ?

[Zanas]

For now, C's course reminds me awfully of Modem 2007. It didn't go well...

[Zanas]

I note that Podemos now has entered every metropolitan regional council up for election, plus Canarias. Catalonia should follow in September. I guess only Ceuta and Melilla stand out in that regard. I don't know when Galicia is supposed to vote ? 2016 ?

Podemos is the only party present everywhere apart from PP and PSOE. Even C's failed to enter in a few places.

What are your thoughts on the incoming coalition talks that are going to take place in quite a number of cities and autonomies ? Can PSOE swallow propping up Podemos, or at least their various outfits, in the places where they won leadership of the left ?

[Zanas]

The rise of anti-austerity parties will bring uncertainty not only to Spain, but also across Europe. 

Welcome to the forum, Captain Obvious ! You have been missed !

(Seriously though, welcome )

[Zanas]

Another observation : some time ago, it was said that Córdoba was the largest European city ruled by a communist-led left-wing coalition. I don't really know who got that title when IU lost the city in 2011, maybe Riga, still in Western Europe I don't know. Could we say, if PSOE props up Ahora Madrid like we can expect them to, that Madrid now owns that title ? Even if Ahora Madrid is a broad coalition of parties and citizens, it's still impulsed by Podemos and IU types.

[Zanas]

I at least find these very instructing, and ask you to keep posting them, Velasco!

I will come up with a few questions about the near future shortly.

[Zanas]

PSOE+Podemos 161 PP-C 160 !!!

But if you add the 2 seats for IU - you get PSOE+Podemos+Iu at 163 - but does it actually matter at all who has more seats PP+C or PSOE+PODEMOS+IU - anyweay you slice it the balance of power is with regional partyies

Of course, although I do feel the bloc (PSOE+Podemos or PP-C) that comes ahead will have the advantage when it comes to government formation.

Seeing how much the landscape is changing, I don't think this reasoning is really true, this time.

[Zanas]

Any chance of a PSOE/Posemos/C government with PP in opposition?

We're pretty much all in the dark here.

Left-wing, in any way : PSOE+Podemos+ERC+IU-UP(Izquierda Unida - Unidad Popular)+EHBildu = 173
Right-wing, in any way : PP+C's+DiL+EAJ/PNV+CC = 177, but it's impossible.

Absolute majority at 176.

[Zanas]

For the Senate : "Each voter may mark up to three candidates' names, from any party. This is the only occasion when Spanish voters vote for individuals rather than a party list. Panachage is allowed, but typically voters cast all three votes for candidates of a single party. As a result, the four Senators are usually the three candidates from the most popular party and the first placed candidate from the next most popular."

Four senators are elected for each province, regardless of population.

[Zanas]

I still think PSOE and Podemos could gather enough support with Catalan (and Basque ?) nationalists to form government on promises of referendum(s). It's the only shot at an absolute majority, anyway. I don't think PSOE+Podemos+C's is manageable.

[Zanas]

Izquierda Unida gets slaughtered, even with their last minute rebranding as Unidad Popular : they don't get any deputy in either Andalucía or Asturias for example, just 2 seats in the seat-rich Madrid. That's brutal, but they had already survived that in 2008 to come back in 2011. With the uprising of Podemos, however, a come-back should prove waaaay harder.

[Zanas]

Back to PSOE+Podemos 160  PP-C 162

You should put Unidad Popular with left-wing bloc.
Kingmakers will be Catalonian separatists.

Would Podemos and  Unidad Popular accept being in the same ruling coalition ?

Yeah, that one shouldn't really be a problem. Of course, we would only be talking of support anyway.

[Zanas]

All in all, it's been a weird night. Turnout far lower than expected (73 vs. 77-80), "great" night for the PSOE and Podemos (even if bitter-sweet for both)l, C's really underperformed although they were also quite hurt by the electoral system and I suppose this last week when they lost a lot of momentum did not help and resulted in potential voters sating home (?). The party got 14%, which is far lower than expected by, anyone since, idk, March or so?

The creation of a government is going to be tough. Hopefully grand coalition that manages to implement constitutional, institutional and electoral reforms. Also, a consensus on education would be neat. That's my wish list

Results are really hard to interpretate . My first impression is that we have a country that is divided in several fracture lines. To begin with, territorial breakdown is quite complex and fascinación (hhonestly, I didn't  expect the Podemos extraordinary performance in myCatalonia and the Basque Country ). Not to mention the generational gap  and many other factors that  I 'm  missing .

As for Ciudadanos, in my opinion they lost momentum because gradually they were perceived as an implicit ally for PP rather than an alternative , making their inconsistencies more evident . Their underperformance in Catalonia together with the ECP success is worthy of mention.

I think that a Grand Coalition should be dismissed .  PSOE can't support an administration headed by Rajoy , who is not a decent polítician according to Pedro Sánchez . There is a lot of media speculation right new, including the possibility of a government headed by Soraya backed by C's and with the abstention of PSOE  in the investiture . I can hardly see Rajoy quitting  just like that. I see the path to reforms blocked by the huge differences between the different forces and that PP majority in the Senate .

Parlamentary elections without a threshold (min. 5%) end like that...

There's a de jure 3% threshold in every province, and of course a de facto threshold of much more than that in seat-poor provinces. It's not a threshold issue here, it's not Israel. It's an issue of a dying system still hanging on to life support and new alternatives still struggling to gain credibility.

[Zanas]

Podemos overtakes IU-UP in Marinaleda : all is lost for IU.

[Zanas]

I think it is also positively correlated to air moisture, seeing the maps.

[Zanas]

Humans are very afraid of losing whatever small dosis of importance they gain.

This is like Syriza's level of betrayal.

I'm quickly becoming an anarchist again.

[Zanas]

Why are they not "allowed" to create several different groups for the several different initiatives they ran with, if they have the numbers ? Which authority is denying them this right ?