Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015

[Talleyrand]

This election is due on or before June 20, but considering the 2012 election was held on March 24, there's a good chance it'll be held earlier than that.

Anyway, the newspoll is out.

TPP
LNP- 50% (-4)
Labor- 50% (+4)

Primary
LNP- 37% (-2)
Labor- 36% (+4)
Greens- 10% (no change)
Others- 17% (-2)

Campbell Newman Favorability
Approval- 38% (+3)
Disapproval- 51% (-3)

Annastacia Palaszczuk Favorability
Approval- 38% (+2)
Disapproval- 34% (-2)

Preferred Premier
Newman- 44% (+3)
Palaszczuk- 35% (no change)

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/03/newspoll-50-50-in-queensland/

[Talleyrand]

What kind of seat count would the produce? The trend has to be good for the ALP who have broken even at this point.
With Campbell Newman having higher approval ratings would this favour LNP returning to government?
Is Katter's Australian Party with 3 seats already that they will gain anymore? possibly picking up old National vote?

I think that the LNP majority is so big that a swing of this size would allow them to keep a workable majority (around 50 seats perhaps?), accounting for local factors and sophomore surge, although on a purely uniform change it would create a Labor majority.

The LNP is likely to be returned simply because they have such a seat cushion from their 2012 election, but Newman is still very unpopular (I made a mistake initially by posting the SA Premier's ratings, which are +4, while Newman's are actually -13) and is a drag if anything. There is an strong chance he will lose his own seat of Ashgrove, which he holds on a 5.7% margin. Former MP Kate Jones is running again, and she's very popular; Newman only took her out last time around because of the huge anti-Labor wave.

KAP has been a big flop since the 2012 election. They almost lost Bob Katter's federal seat in Kennedy, and were pretty much irrelevant everywhere else. The minor party which was much hyped to make a breakthrough was the PUP, and they've declined in recent months, with both their MPs becoming independents again.

[Talleyrand]

Any "early" predictions?

It seems certain the LNP will hold government; the real question will be how much Labor improves from their 2012 defeat.

[Talleyrand]

This brings up an interesting discussion about the minor parties. How do you guys think the crossbench (KAP, PUP, inds, etc) will look following the election?

I don't think PUP will win any seats. I think the KAP might hold onto the two seats they won in 2012 if they're serious about concentrating their resources regionally. I also expect Peter Wellington to hold on.

Obviously there will be some surprises, but this would be tentative guess.

[Talleyrand]

ReachTel has it at 50-50, from 51-49 Labor last time.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/07/reachtel-50-50-in-queensland/

[Talleyrand]

BTW, earlier today Deputy Labor Leader and member for Mackay, Tim Mulherin, announced his retirement.

They have to be incredibly confident for that to have happened...

It struck me as odd as well, but apparently Mulherin has been considering retiring for a long while and the early election forced his hand.

His father passed away late last year, and he's taking care of his mother while holding off cardiac surgery.

The seat I am most interested in (besides Ashgrove ) is Cook in the Cape York peninsula. It's a traditionally Labor seat (held by Labor even during the Bjelke-Peterson years)  and the LNP only has a 3.43% margin. However, I read that some polling has shown the LNP leading in the seat due to the popularity of the local member combined with a limited swing to Labor in the Far North overall. Yet on paper, it seems like it should be an easy Labor gain, and the Labor candidate is indigenous, which should help with the huge native vote in the seat.

I guess we'll have to wait and see.

[Talleyrand]

Ashgrove is a special case and a LOT of attention will be placed on it...

There are four I'll be looking at, purely because of the different mix of seats and where things might be going.

- Bulimba
- Whitsunday
- Waterford
- Greenslopes

I would be very surprised if Labor didn't pick up Bulimba, Waterford, and Greenslopes. If they somehow manage to gain Whitsunday, they're probably headed for an extremely good night.

[Talleyrand]

Galaxy has it at 52-48 LNP, from 50-50 last time.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/10/galaxy-lnp-41-labor-38-in-queensland/

[Talleyrand]

Newspoll has it at 53-47 to LNP. RIP ALP.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/10/newspoll-and-galaxy-53-47-and-52-48-to-lnp-in-queensland/

[Talleyrand]

ReachTel has Labor ahead 53-47 in Ashgrove, a narrowing from 55-45 last time around.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/14/reachtel-ashgrove-pol/

[Talleyrand]

Electorate polls!!!!!!!

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/17/newspoll-51-49-to-labor-in-ashgrove/

Newspoll-

Ashgrove (LNP 5.7%)- 51-49 Labor

I'm increasingly convinced Newman will hold this. He even has a positive 51-42 approval in the electorate, although this is a small (600) sample.


Galaxy-

Barron River (LNP 9.5%): 50-50.
Cairns (LNP 8.9%): 53-47 to Labor.
Greenslopes (LNP 2.5%): 59-41 to Labor.
Mulgrave (Labor 1.1%): 61-39 to Labor.
Mundingburra (LNP 10.2%): 51-49 to Labor.
Pumicestone (LNP 12.1%): 52-48 to LNP.
Thuringowa (LNP 6.7%): 52-48 to Labor.
Townsville (LNP 4.8%): 58-42 to Labor.

Overall this tracks to about a 10% swing to Labor, with a huge 12% in the Southeast (and surprisingly) a possible wipeout for the LNP in the Far North. Obviously this will fade by the time the election happens, but still interesting.

[Talleyrand]

So Labor is still running junks ads as if they haven't learned anything from their awful 2012 campaign.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wptJMNV_qsY

I'm increasingly convinced this will be a double digit LNP win or close to it in the end. Labor may not even break twenty seats.

[Talleyrand]

So Labor is still running junks ads as if they haven't learned anything from their awful 2012 campaign.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wptJMNV_qsY

I'm increasingly convinced this will be a double digit LNP win or close to it in the end. Labor may not even break twenty seats.

Weren't you the guy that said the LNP would retain Redcliffe and Stafford?

I predicted a Labor win in Stafford, and a narrow LNP win in Redcliffe, so a 50% track record?

(Ok, my post above was slight hyperbole, but I am very frustrated and pessimistic)

[Talleyrand]

There will be a ReachTEL poll released at 6pm Brisbane time.

I'm expecting we'll see a strong swing to the LNP- Labor's campaign has been awful while the LNP's has been brilliant.

[Talleyrand]

A useless "constituencies" poll has been released for the electorates of Cairns, Ipswich West, and Keppel- none of which have anything in common....

It shows the combined TPP in these seats going from 57.4% LNP in 2012 to 56% ALP today.

This isn't a major shocker since these seats are on single digit margins, and I really wish the money had been better spent on a poll that actually meant something, but I guess we'll have to make do with what info we have.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/24/newspoll-cairns-ipswich-west-and-keppel-poll/

[Talleyrand]

My personal guess is something around 54% for the LNP in TPP, with Labor winning about 27 seats and the LNP holding around 57. I'm also expecting the 2 Katter MPs to hold on, and Wellington to win, while Liz Cunningham's candidate holds Gladstone and Chris Foley takes back Maryborough.

[Talleyrand]

One thing that is interesting is that instead of attending a forum in his own electorate ... Newman was campaigning in Toowoomba South and Bundaberg, on margins of 21.6% and 18.2%

Very odd. I can't imagine either of those seats ever going Labor, even in a landslide victory. Maybe he is campaigning in friendly territory for decent headlines?

[Talleyrand]

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Looks like Labor may be headed for a major disappointment.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/28/queensland-election-minus-three-days-2/

Apparently it's considered likely that Tim Mulherin's (the retiring ALP Deputy Leader) seat of Mackay will fall to popular local mayor, Julie Boyd, an independent.

[Talleyrand]

I'm interested in how exactly Beattie got so much so success from "just vote 1" in his three landslides. I mean, I understand many Labor voters following his lead in that case, but how exactly was he able to deploy it so effectively to split the Nationals/Liberals/One Nation. I would have expected a big counter-effort within those parties to prevent the scenario that ended up happening.

[Talleyrand]

Very interesting news, Polnut.

Verity Barton's predicament might be somewhat explained by some of the bad headlines that have come her way, since she failed to pay motoring fines that resulted in her ban from driving twice. I know that most voters don't pay attention to things like that, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's giving her some jitters even if she's favored (as she probably is).

[Talleyrand]

Just watched Newman's presser in Cairns... this is not a guy who is acting very confidently at all. "Just vote 1 LNP" "Labor will try to form Government with the Greens" "They hate the coal industry"... etc etc.

I think this is part of a master strategy. Newman is combating the deluxe of bad headlines by acting as if he might lose government, which will cause Labor to lose support because voters will now actually think about them as a possible government. Brilliant.

[Talleyrand]

Just watched Newman's presser in Cairns... this is not a guy who is acting very confidently at all. "Just vote 1 LNP" "Labor will try to form Government with the Greens" "They hate the coal industry"... etc etc.

I think this is part of a master strategy. Newman is combating the deluxe of bad headlines by acting as if he might lose government, which will cause Labor to lose support because voters will now actually think about them as a possible government. Brilliant.

Lol, you didn't see how he looked. He's not that good an actor.

EDIT: Some late breaking news. Newman was meant to be doing a regional swing today and part of tomorrow... he's now high-tailing it back to Brisbane, immediately.

God I hope you're right. I'm a pessimist, but even I'm beginning to doubt Newman's chances in Ashgrove. He's definitely no better than 50-50 odds, although I don't buy that he's dead.

Anyway, looking forward to the deluge of polls which should be out in the final few days. We've been data-starved for a while.

[Talleyrand]

If the ALP wins or even comes close I think it's time for Tony to start packing his things, there is no excuse for a loss here. Seriously, what a disaster for the Libs.

Yeah, if ALP comes anywhere close to 40 seats (which I highly doubt), he's going to have a LOT of explaining to do, especially how he sucked the oxygen out of the room and made himself a national laughingstock for almost the last week of the campaign with the Philip nonsense.

[Talleyrand]

Labor Leader Annastacia Palaszcuzk made a disastrous gaffe yesterday. When asked the GST rate, she was unable to recall its rate (10%). A very strong tool for the LNP to use against Labor in the final dash.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/queensland-election-preview-gaffe-eases-pressure-on-newman-20150129-1311wv.html

[Talleyrand]

Considering the mix of geographies, we'd be in minority government territory with an LNP 51-49 TPP win.

Very interesting in that case. I know Labor won a comfortable win with less than that in 2009, which seems to have a lot of commentators on other sites convinced that Queensland's political geography actually favors the ALP. I don't know how true that is; it just seems to me that the state overall is very idiosyncratic and weird.

Another tidbit-

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http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/30/queensland-election-minus-one-day/