Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015

[Talleyrand]

Do we have any statewide TPP estimates?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Do we have any statewide TPP estimates?

It's sitting at 50-50...

[Talleyrand]

Is anyone else enjoying the hilarious fighting between Tim Nicholls and Wayne Swan on ABC? LOL

Antony Green has ruled out an LNP majority government.

[Barnes]

The is ABC predicting an ALP majority of 1, at the moment.

[Hifly]

I should have woken up earlier to watch the magic unfold! However with postage traditionally LNP leaning wouldn't be surprising to see LNP pull ahead in those few seats in doubt. I'm gonna predict a hung parliament at this point.

[Talleyrand]

Tomorrow's Courier-Mail (this newspaper endorsed the LNP).

[checkers]

This is still so surreal for me.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I don't believe it... I expected a backlash, not a booting! I do wonder what happened in Bundaberg in particular - I thought the area would have trended enough to the LNP to ward off any threat there.

[Knives]

Between this and hopefully the Asian Cup - whatta night!

[You kip if you want to...]

The big "correction" everyone was talking about turned out to be a 2PP not too different from 2009. Wonder how Anna Bligh's feeling tonight.

[Talleyrand]

This is still so surreal for me.

Yeah, it still isn't sinking in for me.

I remember when I first started following Australian politics, the first election I watched unfold was Queensland 2012, and I've based a lot of my outlook off of that.

Even if the LNP takes a minority government, this is just incredible. For once, I am glad to have egg on my face.

If Annastacia forms government, she will be the first female state premier to win from opposition, while Anna Bligh became the first female state premier to win from government back in 2009. Good for Queensland.

The big "correction" everyone was talking about turned out to be a 2PP not too different from 2009. Wonder how Anna Bligh's feeling tonight.

Yes, I imagine Anna Bligh will feel vindicated.

[You kip if you want to...]

This is still so surreal for me.

Yeah, it still isn't sinking in for me.

I remember when I first started following Australian politics, the first election I watched unfold was Queensland 2012, and I've based a lot of my outlook off of that.

Even if the LNP takes a minority government, this is just incredible. For once, I am glad to have egg on my face.

If Annastacia forms government, she will be the first female state premier to win from opposition, while Anna Bligh became the first female state premier to win from government back in 2009. Good for Queensland.

The big "correction" everyone was talking about turned out to be a 2PP not too different from 2009. Wonder how Anna Bligh's feeling tonight.

Yes, I imagine Anna Bligh will feel vindicated.

Never has such a squeaker of a result felt like such a landslide.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Again... what happens when you abuse a first term mandate.

Next up, Tony.

[BaconBacon96]

Newman has declared his career over.

[checkers]

Newman's speaking: "My political career is over". Never been so delighted to embarrass myself with wrong predictions.

EDIT: Beaten to it.

[morgieb]

Labor to either win or go very close to victory. You heard it here first.

I will now accept my accolades.

[Talleyrand]

Labor to either win or go very close to victory. You heard it here first.

I will now accept my accolades.

Yes, you, Beatrice, Polnut, Barnes, and anyone else who saw the potential for this result need a huge congratulations.

So three virtually identical polls in all respects (primary vote, two party preferred vote, satisfaction, and preferred premier).

Not sure what to make of that, but I'll do a (traditionally pessimistic) prediction here.

TPP
LNP: 53.5%
ALP: 46.5%

Seats
LNP- 56 (RIP Newman though)
ALP- 27
Crossbench- 6 (Knuth, Katter, Wellington, Foley, Boyd, Butler)

^Lol

[checkers]

Congrats, morgieb! I don't think I deserve any accolades considering as earlier today I was predicting that they'd win and Newman would be parachuted into a safe seat

[Talleyrand]

Congrats, morgieb! I don't think I deserve any accolades considering as earlier today I was predicting that they'd win and Newman would be parachuted into a safe seat

Well you still predicted something very close to the final results anyway.

Also, the ALP has won every seat in Far North Queensland; the only region they've totally swept I think.

[Knives]

Every state seat that falls in Wyatt Roy's federal electorate has been lost save one which is being held by 1%. Hopefully that little sh**tstain goes down soon.

[Talleyrand]

Leanne Enoch has become the first Aboriginal woman elected to Parliament, winning back the safe Labor seat of Algester.

Every state seat that falls in Wyatt Roy's federal electorate has been lost save one which is being held by 1%. Hopefully that little sh**tstain goes down soon.

I would most like to see Roy and Gambaro lose in the federal election. Might be too much to ask for though.

[morgieb]

Leanne Enoch has become the first Aboriginal woman elected to Parliament, winning back the safe Labor seat of Algester.

Every state seat that falls in Wyatt Roy's federal electorate has been lost save one which is being held by 1%. Hopefully that little sh**tstain goes down soon.

I would most like to see Roy and Gambaro lose in the federal election. Might be too much to ask for though.

Assuming polls stay what they are (or even narrow a bit) they'll lose. A 50/50 should doom Gambaro at least, Roy might be tougher but he'll be in trouble.

[Platypus]

Jane Prentice basically just said 'we need to turf Tony' in political terms. WHat she actually said was 'we need to have a discussion about how we go forward', but that was in response to 'Do you think the coalition needs to loom at Tony Abbott's leadership' or similar.

[Talleyrand]

Jane Prentice basically just said 'we need to turf Tony' in political terms. WHat she actually said was 'we need to have a discussion about how we go forward', but that was in response to 'Do you think the coalition needs to loom at Tony Abbott's leadership' or similar.

"We can't continue as we are, we're getting bad feedback" was her response when asked if Tony had an effect on the back to back losses of first term Coalition governments. He may not be in The Lodge much longer.

She also refused to rule out a leadership spill, stating that "we'll be having further discussions" again like Hugh pointed out. Not a vote of confidence.

[Platypus]

That's it, thanks.