In a thread that's going to probably get a million replies...
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11379.xml?ReleaseID=676April 20, 2005 - Casey Widens Lead In Pennsylvania Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Schiavo, Social Security Take Toll On Santorum
State Treasurer Robert Casey, Jr., has a 49 - 35 percent lead over incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum in the 2006 Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac poll released today.
This compares to a 46 - 41 percent Casey lead in a February 16 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.
Pennsylvania voters give Sen. Santorum a 48 - 35 percent approval rating, down from 52 - 31 percent Feb. 16 and comparable to his all-time low of 47 - 30 percent.
Voters reject 55 - 37 percent President George W. Bush's plan to privatize Social Security and 38 percent say they are less likely to vote for Santorum because of his support for Bush's proposal. Another 15 percent say they are more likely to vote for Santorum and 43 percent say his Social Security position does not make a difference.
Only 14 percent of Pennsylvania voters are more likely to vote for Santorum because of his highly visible role in the Terri Schiavo case, with 34 percent who say they are less likely and 47 percent who say it does not make a difference.
"The numbers show clearly that Sen. Santorum has lost ground in his re-election bid over the last two months. The Senator has come under strong criticism for his outspoken involvement in the Schiavo case and his campaigning for President Bush's unpopular Social Security proposal," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Sen. Santorum also has been targeted in press reports for his strong conservative stands, and for appearing to moderate those stands in an election year. In short, Santorum has become a more controversial public figure in the past two months and Bob Casey, without doing much of anything to attract headlines, is the beneficiary," Richards added.
"But this campaign, which has miles to go and millions to spend, is still in early previews."
Casey's biggest gain is among Democrats who went from 74 - 17 percent for the challenger in the February 16 poll to 77 - 10 percent today. He also has gained among men and women voters and slightly among independent voters, who now back him 52 - 28 percent.
Pennsylvania voters give Santorum a 36 - 25 percent favorability with 20 percent mixed and 19 percent who say they don't know enough to form an opinion.
Voters say 44 - 37 percent that Santorum deserves to be reelected, down from 53 - 30 percent February 16. He is too conservative, 25 percent of voters say, with 8 percent who say he is too liberal and 44 percent who say he is "about right."
Casey gets a 40 - 6 percent favorability, with 15 percent mixed and 38 percent who say they don't know enough to form an opinion.
While both Santorum and Casey are pro-life in the abortion debate, 39 percent of Pennsylvania voters say they would be "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to vote for a pro-choice candidate instead.
Voters disapprove 53 - 43 percent of the job President Bush is doing, compared to his all-time low of 55 - 41 percent disapproval May 27, 2004.
Senior Sen. Arlen Specter gets a 53 - 33 percent approval.
From April 13 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,395 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.
