How Long Until The Truss Government Collapses
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  How Long Until The Truss Government Collapses
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October 2022
 
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November 2022
 
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Author Topic: How Long Until The Truss Government Collapses  (Read 1460 times)
Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« on: September 09, 2022, 03:52:06 AM »

Seems most people believe she won't make it to the next election if it happens in 2024/2025.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2022, 04:19:12 AM »

May 23, 2024 at around 3:36 pm London time
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2022, 04:38:51 AM »
« Edited: September 09, 2022, 04:43:52 AM by CumbrianLefty »

Actually the last *possible* GE - always assuming there isn't some sort of Enabling Act - would be if the monarch passes away when the campaign for a Jan 2025 GE is in progress (this was discussed when QE2 had a health scare during the 2019 election) so February 2025.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #3 on: September 09, 2022, 05:49:06 AM »

May 23, 2024 at around 3:36 pm London time

I'm keeping a very open mind, but this seems the most likely of many scenarios at the moment. Truss would lead an unpopular government and avoid an election for as long as possible in the hope that her fortunes would change. The party would bin her after a second set of local election losses in 2024.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #4 on: September 09, 2022, 06:09:13 AM »
« Edited: September 09, 2022, 06:13:21 AM by CumbrianLefty »

Nah, if she goes (and its likelier that she doesn't, despite everything) it is much more likely to be next year. If things are so bad in mid-2024 that a leadership challenge looks feasible, it is also likely that things are so fundamentally awful for the Tories that they are beyond salvation anyway.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #5 on: September 09, 2022, 06:13:07 AM »

Nah, if she goes (and its likelier that she doesn't, despite everything) it is much more likely to be next year. If things are so bad in mid-2024 that a leadership challenge looks feasible, it is also likely that things are so bad for the Tories that they are beyond salvation anyway.

Being beyond salvation would not deter all ambition to become PM. It might persuade some of the frontrunners to stay back, but that just leaves room for the Andrea Leadsoms of the world to step up to the poisoned chalice. A lot of politicians would trade in the rest of their careers for 6 months as PM, and others would be willing to gamble that they could right the ship.
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Torrain
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« Reply #6 on: September 09, 2022, 08:41:02 AM »

Nah, if she goes (and its likelier that she doesn't, despite everything) it is much more likely to be next year. If things are so bad in mid-2024 that a leadership challenge looks feasible, it is also likely that things are so fundamentally awful for the Tories that they are beyond salvation anyway.
Agree with this - once you get into an election year, it's totally impractical to change leader, and would only really happen if their health failed or were credibly charged with a significant crime. Better to suck it up for the election, and then fight the ideological battles once you've limped into opposition.

So the only time Truss could feasibly be removed would be during 2023, once the country has rebounded from the current uncertainty - on both the constitutional and energy front, and before the party starts writing it's 2024 manifesto.

And even that's a pretty negligible chance - she'd have to get all the big calls wrong to squander enough goodwill to trigger a confidence vote within 6 months.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #7 on: September 09, 2022, 09:34:08 AM »

Actually the last *possible* GE - always assuming there isn't some sort of Enabling Act - would be if the monarch passes away when the campaign for a Jan 2025 GE is in progress (this was discussed when QE2 had a health scare during the 2019 election) so February 2025.

If that's your theory, then you could also in theory have perpetual successive monarchs just keep passing away, one every couple of weeks, just before the election, causing the election to be indefinitely postponed until you've worked through the entire line of succession, which would take quite a while.
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MABA 2020
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« Reply #8 on: September 09, 2022, 11:45:32 AM »

Voted Sept 2024 because thats when the next election will likely be, maybe they could wait a bit later October maybe? But I think if they get to the end of summer 24' there's no point waiting to the literal last second, things won't get better at that point.

I don't expect Truss to be replaced before an election though.
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Vosem
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« Reply #9 on: September 09, 2022, 12:03:42 PM »

I'd be surprised if she goes before the next election, honestly; if the government is very unpopular nobody else will want to oversee an inevitable defeat, whereas if the government becomes popular then she'll be difficult to defeat because a victory in the 2024 election would seem likely.
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Pericles
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« Reply #10 on: September 09, 2022, 05:56:16 PM »

Nah, if she goes (and its likelier that she doesn't, despite everything) it is much more likely to be next year. If things are so bad in mid-2024 that a leadership challenge looks feasible, it is also likely that things are so bad for the Tories that they are beyond salvation anyway.

Being beyond salvation would not deter all ambition to become PM. It might persuade some of the frontrunners to stay back, but that just leaves room for the Andrea Leadsoms of the world to step up to the poisoned chalice. A lot of politicians would trade in the rest of their careers for 6 months as PM, and others would be willing to gamble that they could right the ship.

It could be like the Fourth Labour Government in NZ, which went through three Prime Ministers in one term (though NZ has three year terms not five year ones like the UK). Mike Moore became Prime Minister two months before the election. Labour was doomed by that point but the leadership change was designed to save some seats and arguably it did that even though it was one of the biggest landslides ever, because Labour surged several points in the polls.
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« Reply #11 on: September 10, 2022, 06:03:37 AM »

Actually the last *possible* GE - always assuming there isn't some sort of Enabling Act - would be if the monarch passes away when the campaign for a Jan 2025 GE is in progress (this was discussed when QE2 had a health scare during the 2019 election) so February 2025.

If that's your theory, then you could also in theory have perpetual successive monarchs just keep passing away, one every couple of weeks, just before the election, causing the election to be indefinitely postponed until you've worked through the entire line of succession, which would take quite a while.

The line of succession is actually growing faster than that, so it won't run out. Sure, you'll have to wipe out the most senior branches, including the entire Norwegian line of succession.
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Vosem
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« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2022, 11:41:44 PM »

I'd be surprised if she goes before the next election, honestly; if the government is very unpopular nobody else will want to oversee an inevitable defeat, whereas if the government becomes popular then she'll be difficult to defeat because a victory in the 2024 election would seem likely.

A strong contender for the wrongest call I have ever made!
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Torrain
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« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2022, 03:45:45 AM »

Nah, if she goes (and its likelier that she doesn't, despite everything) it is much more likely to be next year. If things are so bad in mid-2024 that a leadership challenge looks feasible, it is also likely that things are so fundamentally awful for the Tories that they are beyond salvation anyway.
Agree with this - once you get into an election year, it's totally impractical to change leader, and would only really happen if their health failed or were credibly charged with a significant crime. Better to suck it up for the election, and then fight the ideological battles once you've limped into opposition.

So the only time Truss could feasibly be removed would be during 2023, once the country has rebounded from the current uncertainty - on both the constitutional and energy front, and before the party starts writing it's 2024 manifesto.

And even that's a pretty negligible chance - she'd have to get all the big calls wrong to squander enough goodwill to trigger a confidence vote within 6 months.

Turns out I gave her far, far, far too much credit.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2022, 03:53:38 AM »

And even that's a pretty negligible chance - she'd have to get all the big calls wrong to squander enough goodwill to trigger a confidence vote within 6 months.

And then she came and did just that.
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Liminal Trans Girl
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« Reply #15 on: October 21, 2022, 09:44:43 AM »

20 October 2022
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2022, 11:00:26 AM »

Did I really post what I did near the top of this thread?

Genuinely seems a generation ago Smiley
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Person Man
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« Reply #17 on: October 21, 2022, 12:13:48 PM »

90th percentile vs expectations of incompetence... from Atlas. Great Honer!
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2022, 04:53:18 PM »

Did I really post what I did near the top of this thread?

Genuinely seems a generation ago Smiley

My confidence in your political predictions has dropped 43% as a result.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2022, 05:46:29 PM »

Did I really post what I did near the top of this thread?

Genuinely seems a generation ago Smiley
Happens to the best of us.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2022, 06:18:32 PM »


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