Greek election - January 25th 2015

[Beezer]

So where exactly are the similarities between Syriza and ANEL other than that they disapprove of the troika? This almost feels like a coalition between the Left Party and AfD here in Germany.

[politicus]

Tsipras to meet Greek president Karolos Papoulias at 3.30pm, will submit the names of his cabinet.

Syriza MP Dragasakis to become Deputy PM overlooking the Finance & Economy Ministries and leading negotiations with the Eurozone. Yanis Varaufakis as finance minister.

[Bacon King]

So where exactly are the similarities between Syriza and ANEL other than that they disapprove of the troika? This almost feels like a coalition between the Left Party and AfD here in Germany.

They find common ground on most anti-establishment stuff. They're both anti-austerity, anti-corruption outsiders who use "neoliberal" as a curse word. Besides that, not much.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Tsipras has promised not to enter coalition with others than KKE. If he breaks that promise he risks defections from his left wing (which will be bigger than any potential coalition partner), so it wont be worth it.

If KKE says no, and the only way to obtain a majority is through To Potami or ANEL, he will break the promise.

Bam! Hate to say I told you so... (/Yes I am an insufferable person)
He didn't even wait for KKE to say no. ^^

[Bacon King]

Tsipras to be sworn in at 4pm local time

Also I think the whole "I only want a coalition with KKE" was mostly just a (fairly succesful) ploy to win a big chunk of KKE voters. I'm wary about the risk of a revolt from the left but if Tsipras has kept them united this far I'm sure he can hold his keep his party together now. No SYRIZA MP is going to want to be the guy who caused austerity to stay

[politicus]

Tsipras has promised not to enter coalition with others than KKE. If he breaks that promise he risks defections from his left wing (which will be bigger than any potential coalition partner), so it wont be worth it.

If KKE says no, and the only way to obtain a majority is through To Potami or ANEL, he will break the promise.

Bam! Hate to say I told you so... (/Yes I am an insufferable person)
He didn't even wait for KKE to say no. ^^

Well, the problem I pointed out still exists. We do not know exactly how many of the new MPs that are Left Platform, but it is about 25% of the party and they will be alienated from the start. This is going to be a trainwreck.

Also, you obviously love to say "I told you so" Don't be a hypocrite.

I always assumed Syriza would be pragmatic when it came to coalition partner if they really needed a lot of seats (although I thought they would try Potami first), but not in a 148-149 scenario. This seems like an unnecessary gamble with possibly 30-40 left wingers among the MPs.

[Landslide Lyndon]

So where exactly are the similarities between Syriza and ANEL other than that they disapprove of the troika? This almost feels like a coalition between the Left Party and AfD here in Germany.

Nowhere. ANEL is a far-right party: anti-immigrant, anti-semitic, pro-church and very much pro-law-and-order.
It will be a travesty of a government that won't last long, for better or worse.

[Bacon King]

So where exactly are the similarities between Syriza and ANEL other than that they disapprove of the troika? This almost feels like a coalition between the Left Party and AfD here in Germany.

Nowhere. ANEL is a far-right party: anti-immigrant, anti-semitic, pro-church and very much pro-law-and-order.
It will be a travesty of a government that won't last long, for better or worse.

Who did you vote for px?

[Landslide Lyndon]

So where exactly are the similarities between Syriza and ANEL other than that they disapprove of the troika? This almost feels like a coalition between the Left Party and AfD here in Germany.

Nowhere. ANEL is a far-right party: anti-immigrant, anti-semitic, pro-church and very much pro-law-and-order.
It will be a travesty of a government that won't last long, for better or worse.

Who did you vote for px?

Kinima. But of course Papandreou is much too sane and serious for a joke country like Greece.

[politicus]

So where exactly are the similarities between Syriza and ANEL other than that they disapprove of the troika? This almost feels like a coalition between the Left Party and AfD here in Germany.

Nowhere. ANEL is a far-right party: anti-immigrant, anti-semitic, pro-church and very much pro-law-and-order.
It will be a travesty of a government that won't last long, for better or worse.

Who did you vote for px?

Kinima. But of course Papandreou is much too sane and serious for a joke country like Greece.

1) Do you think Syriza would have chosen Kinima if they had gotten in? (I doubt it, but curious)

2) What do you think happens after this government collapses?

[Bacon King]

One more question px, what is up with EK almost polling 2%? My understanding is that it's the personal vehicle of a Moderate Hero perennial candidate who was a PASOK MP like thirty years ago. Was there a high profile campaign or something?

[Landslide Lyndon]

So where exactly are the similarities between Syriza and ANEL other than that they disapprove of the troika? This almost feels like a coalition between the Left Party and AfD here in Germany.

Nowhere. ANEL is a far-right party: anti-immigrant, anti-semitic, pro-church and very much pro-law-and-order.
It will be a travesty of a government that won't last long, for better or worse.

Who did you vote for px?

Kinima. But of course Papandreou is much too sane and serious for a joke country like Greece.

1) Do you think Syriza would have chosen Kinima if they had gotten in? (I doubt it, but curious)

2) What do you think happens after this government collapses?

1)No. The Left here in Greece have a visceral hate for Papandreou, just like they had for his father and grandfather. Much more for George whom they consider responsible for the bankruptcy and the subsequent austerity.

2)Only God knows. Unfortunately, I think things will get worse before they get better. Unless of course Tsipras or Merkel surprise us pleasantly.

One more question px, what is up with EK almost polling 2%? My understanding is that it's the personal vehicle of a Moderate Hero perennial candidate who was a PASOK MP like thirty years ago. Was there a high profile campaign or something?

He is not a moderate hero, he is a joke candidate, a man with clear mental issues. People voted for him as a protest for/to our political system.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Well, the problem I pointed out still exists. We do not know exactly how many of the new MPs that are Left Platform, but it is about 25% of the party and they will be alienated from the start. This is going to be a trainwreck.

Also, you obviously love to say "I told you so" Don't be a hypocrite.

I always assumed Syriza would be pragmatic when it came to coalition partner if they really needed a lot of seats (although I thought they would try Potami first), but not in a 148-149 scenario. This seems like an unnecessary gamble with possibly 30-40 left wingers among the MPs.

I also think Potami would have been a better choice as they are more close on matters not relating to the troika, but who still isn't tainted by the unpopularity of the current government. Syriza and Anel will obviously run into trouble agreeing on policy quite fast.

Still, I would expect Tsipras to have enough political savvy to know if this would cause mass defections from his caucus, so I don't think, initially at least, that that part will turn out to be a problem. Let's not forget that he is one of few leaders who managed to keep all his MPs through the last parliament.

(And yes, I do love it. )    

[politicus]

I would expect Tsipras to have enough political savvy to know if this would cause mass defections from his caucus, so I don't think, initially at least, that that part will turn out to be a problem. Let's not forget that he is one of few leaders who managed to keep all his MPs through the last parliament.
 

There is a big difference between being in opposition and in government - and at some point they will need to address non-austerity related matters.

[Bacon King]

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Actually the only one

[politicus]

If you see any bookies offering bets on Syriza defections within the first six months let me know.

[politicus]

Tsipras will break the tradition by not being sworn in by the head of Greece’s orthodox church, Archbishop Ieronymos.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If you see any bookies offering bets on Syriza defections within the first six months let me know.

It's the surest bet you can take. Let's see first whom he proposes for President.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Tsipras will break the tradition by not being sworn in by the head of Greece’s orthodox church, Archbishop Ieronymos.

Pissing off ANEL before he even gets started?

[Zuza]

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Actually the only one

Isn't KKE also kept all its MPs?

[Bacon King]

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Actually the only one

Isn't KKE also kept all its MPs?

my mistake, you are correct! I was going through the different parties by memory and momentarily forgot they existed

[politicus]

Interview with one of the leading spokesmen for the Left Platform. He avoids answering the question of what will happen if Syriza does not get a majority on its own, but his description of their relationship to the leadership is telling.

"the Left Platform plus the left wings of the majority bloc are actually the majority inside the party, and we have seen that in the last period, for example on the crucial issue of alliances. The leadership pushed very much for an alliance with Dimar, and it didn’t succeed. It didn’t succeed because the reaction inside the party was overwhelming, and the motor of that reaction were these two left components.

So despite the fact that the question of the euro still works to prevent a more cohesive attitude in what we can now call the broad left of the party, it is nevertheless the case that the room for maneuver for the leadership has become much more limited.

Unfortunately, the majority of the leadership has autonomized itself yet further from the party and disregarded the party decisions. I’m not here talking about some kind of simple divide between the base and the leadership — I mean autonomous from the party as a whole. And that is, of course, a very serious risk for the future."

Hard to see these guys just bow their heads and adapt to a Syriza-Anel alliance. They got 30% at the founding congress in Syriza.

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/01/phase-one/

[Keystone Phil]

Tsipras will break the tradition by not being sworn in by the head of Greece’s orthodox church, Archbishop Ieronymos.

I want to see his birth certificate.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Hard to see these guys just bow their heads and adapt to a Syriza-Anel alliance. They got 30% at the founding congress in Syriza.

We should not forget the possibility that it'll be ANEL, and not the SYRIZA left-wing that gets the short stick in this agreement. I think it's much more possible that Syriza runs over ANEL with left-wing policies, that will cause ANEL to rebel, than it is that they take a huge leap to the centre thereby annihilating their own caucus.

I have so far never heard of a coalition government where the dominant party didn't get to decide 90-95% of the policies leaving just crumbs to their partners, so I don't see why SYRIZA would actually give ANEL any meaningful influence on the new governments policy.   

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So I wonder if this means SYRIZA won't pass gay marriage. Though they still could with Potami and PASOK support. Actually I wonder how KKE would vote on that, would be interesting.