Greek election - January 25th 2015

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But who says that Greece's creditors are particularly invested in Greece having a functional economy?

[Beezer]

Looks like PASOK may come in last among the parties above the 3% threshold...

[Zanas]

We can now nearly safely assume that Anel will overcome Pasok. Hilarious.

[Clyde1998]

It looks like SYRIZA won't form a majority government then...

[Insula Dei]

SYRIZA at 149 seats.

Inching towards 150/151 at this rate, I'd say.

[Boston Bread]

Syriza's lead over ND is now over 8 points, 36.10-28.08
Edit: their lead is actually falling now. No majority it looks like. I don't know if that's good or bad.

[ingemann]

The only way Greece can have a functional economy is if they focus on raising productivity instead of austerity, which can't happen if bankruptcy is constantly looming. Which is why I made the point that some debt cancellation should be on the table.

Okay so explain to me how you plan to increase Greek productivity, and afterward you may also explain how the Syriza's policies will increase Greek productivity.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

lol PASOK

[jaichind]

SYRIZA  vote share now actually falling.  I guess enough of the Athens vote has come in.

[jaichind]

lol PASOK

Yes.  On the other hand, I think the result is reasonable given the circumstances.  I think if we add the vote shares of KIDISO PASOK and River they add up to be slightly higher than what PASOK got in June 2012.  And this is an election that was supposed to be polarized around SYRIZA and ND.

[jaichind]

Looking at the results so far it seems this election is mostly about DIMAR-Green and ANEL vote from June 2012 going to SYRIZA.  Other than that it is mostly small shifts of the same votes between various similar parties  (like PASOK ->  KIDISO and River)

[Meeker]

Tsipras may prefer 149/150 over 151/152. With the latter you give significant power to individual members of your party who are willing to make demands... plus there's the inability to blame other parties if things go poorly, as has been discussed previously.

[Boston Bread]

When it comes to reducing unemployment, new spending is justified. With 26% unemployment a large chunk of what should be their tax base is missing. In the long-term spending to boost private sector employment now reduces the debt in the long-term. The previous government hasn't done nearly enough to address that. SYRIZA is generally more trusted when it comes to addressing tax evasion and corruption than the traditional parties. They promise higher taxes and military cuts too so they're not promising money for jobs out of thin air.
Now, I'm not going to defend SYRIZA's platform because it goes further than what I want, but I'm supporting them as an agent of change.

[Insula Dei]

Tsipras may prefer 149/150 over 151/152. With the latter you give significant power to individual members of your party who are willing to make demands...

That's just as much the was in a minority government situation as with a 1 or 2-seat majority, tho.

[Famous Mortimer]

Tsipras may prefer 149/150 over 151/152. With the latter you give significant power to individual members of your party who are willing to make demands...

That's just as much the was in a minority government situation as with a 1 or 2-seat majority, tho.

Yeah, no offense to the OP but that's a dumb argument. That's like when people claim Anthony Kennedy is somehow more powerful than all the other Supreme Court judges. No, everyone's vote is going to be worth the same no matter what.

[Clyde1998]

SYRIZA's vote share is nudging up again...

[Meeker]

Tsipras may prefer 149/150 over 151/152. With the latter you give significant power to individual members of your party who are willing to make demands...

That's just as much the was in a minority government situation as with a 1 or 2-seat majority, tho.

Yeah, no offense to the OP but that's a dumb argument. That's like when people claim Anthony Kennedy is somehow more powerful than all the other Supreme Court judges. No, everyone's vote is going to be worth the same no matter what.

The Supreme Court analogy doesn't hold up - members of the court don't need to be responsive to voters, their party leaders, or anyone, to keep their power.

Insula Dei's point is fair though.

[ingemann]

When it comes to reducing unemployment, new spending is justified. With 26% unemployment a large chunk of what should be their tax base is missing. In the long-term spending to boost private sector employment now reduces the debt in the long-term. The previous government hasn't done nearly enough to address that. SYRIZA is generally more trusted when it comes to addressing tax evasion and corruption than the traditional parties. They promise higher taxes and military cuts too so they're not promising money for jobs out of thin air.
Now, I'm not going to defend SYRIZA's platform because it goes further than what I want, but I'm supporting them as an agent of change.

Okay how will you spend the money to increase productivity?

[Famous Mortimer]

Tsipras may prefer 149/150 over 151/152. With the latter you give significant power to individual members of your party who are willing to make demands...

That's just as much the was in a minority government situation as with a 1 or 2-seat majority, tho.

Yeah, no offense to the OP but that's a dumb argument. That's like when people claim Anthony Kennedy is somehow more powerful than all the other Supreme Court judges. No, everyone's vote is going to be worth the same no matter what.

The Supreme Court analogy doesn't hold up - members of the court don't need to be responsive to voters, their party leaders, or anyone, to keep their power.

Insula Dei's point is fair though.

It has nothing to do with the length of terms. We're talking about voting power. The influence of your vote does not change based on if you are a "swing voter."

[Zanas]

When it comes to reducing unemployment, new spending is justified. With 26% unemployment a large chunk of what should be their tax base is missing. In the long-term spending to boost private sector employment now reduces the debt in the long-term. The previous government hasn't done nearly enough to address that. SYRIZA is generally more trusted when it comes to addressing tax evasion and corruption than the traditional parties. They promise higher taxes and military cuts too so they're not promising money for jobs out of thin air.
Now, I'm not going to defend SYRIZA's platform because it goes further than what I want, but I'm supporting them as an agent of change.

Okay how will you spend the money to increase productivity?

With the current state of the environment, why would anyone want to do that ?

[Meeker]

Tsipras may prefer 149/150 over 151/152. With the latter you give significant power to individual members of your party who are willing to make demands...

That's just as much the was in a minority government situation as with a 1 or 2-seat majority, tho.

Yeah, no offense to the OP but that's a dumb argument. That's like when people claim Anthony Kennedy is somehow more powerful than all the other Supreme Court judges. No, everyone's vote is going to be worth the same no matter what.

The Supreme Court analogy doesn't hold up - members of the court don't need to be responsive to voters, their party leaders, or anyone, to keep their power.

Insula Dei's point is fair though.

It has nothing to do with the length of terms. We're talking about voting power. The influence of your vote does not change based on if you are a "swing voter."

Sure it does. An individual member of the majority party with a one seat majority has significantly more leverage to demand things than an individual member of the majority party with a 50 seat majority. He/she cannot be easily ignored in the former case but can be very easily ignored in the latter.

The same standard could be applied to the Supreme Court. If four justices want to issue an opinion but need to make concessions in it to get that fifth justice on board, that fifth justice has considerable power. But he'd have virtually none if six justices were already on board with the opinion.

[Boston Bread]

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Do what exactly?

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Whichever type of stimulus is the most effective at reducing unemployment, really. I don't have a platform of my own.

[Хahar 🤔]

It's interesting to see that Muslims have finally moved from PASOK to SYRIZA. SYRIZA's best performance in the country is in Rhodope, where ND won and PASOK finished in second place in June 2012; now the SYRIZA vote has risen from 19.75% to 49.36%, the ND vote has gone from 27.28% to 19.99%, and the PASOK vote has fallen from 20.54% to 3.27%.

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Do what exactly?

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Whichever type of stimulus is the most effective at reducing unemployment, really. I don't have a platform of my own.

None of this discussion is particularly germane to an election thread. I suggest politely that all of you take it to the Economics board.

[Famous Mortimer]

Tsipras may prefer 149/150 over 151/152. With the latter you give significant power to individual members of your party who are willing to make demands...

That's just as much the was in a minority government situation as with a 1 or 2-seat majority, tho.

Yeah, no offense to the OP but that's a dumb argument. That's like when people claim Anthony Kennedy is somehow more powerful than all the other Supreme Court judges. No, everyone's vote is going to be worth the same no matter what.

The Supreme Court analogy doesn't hold up - members of the court don't need to be responsive to voters, their party leaders, or anyone, to keep their power.

Insula Dei's point is fair though.

It has nothing to do with the length of terms. We're talking about voting power. The influence of your vote does not change based on if you are a "swing voter."

Sure it does. An individual member of the majority party with a one seat majority has significantly more leverage to demand things than an individual member of the majority party with a 50 seat majority. He/she cannot be easily ignored in the former case but can be very easily ignored in the latter.

The same standard could be applied to the Supreme Court. If four justices want to issue an opinion but need to make concessions in it to get that fifth justice on board, that fifth justice has considerable power. But he'd have virtually none if six justices were already on board with the opinion.

The four justices who have "decided" can change their vote at any time. So they have just as much power as the swing voter.

[jaichind]

It's interesting to see that Muslims have finally moved from PASOK to SYRIZA. SYRIZA's best performance in the country is in Rhodope, where ND won and PASOK finished in second place in June 2012; now the SYRIZA vote has risen from 19.75% to 49.36%, the ND vote has gone from 27.28% to 19.99%, and the PASOK vote has fallen from 20.54% to 3.27%.

Are you sure that is what took place ? DIMAR in June 2012 got 17.8% in Rhodope and now is nothing.  In my view most of PASOK vote went to River which now has around 13% of the vote and pretty much all of DIMAR/Greens from June 2012 went to SYRIZA.  And yes, there is for sure a swing from ND and ANEL to SYRIZA as well.