Greek election - January 25th 2015

[justfollowingtheelections]

Since SYRIZA is definitely winning the 50 seat bonus, I'm guessing that undecided voters will go for smaller parties that are fighting to win parliament seats.

[justfollowingtheelections]

And the winner for best tv ad is EL.LA.DA.:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YajuYisyg3E&t=3m14s

Yes, that is a real tv ad of a real political party (from what I understand they are a green conservative party and their leader, the guy in the middle, is a former LAOS member that owns health food stores).

[Oak Hills]

per GPO, how support has moved between parties (I assume since Euro 2014; my Greek is terrible, I'm just assuming b/c Potami is included)

I can't even figure out what those graphics are saying about how the vote is flowing.

[politicus]

The polls have opened.

TOC has an acerbic evaluation of the campaign with some US references:
http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/opinion/article/the-samaras-tsipras-campaign-circus

On Samaras:

"in this winter campaign he literally broke the mold of self righteousness, ridicule, posturing, divisive rhetoric and silly conservatism. There were times while watching the PM’s arguments, that one was reminded of Republican caricatures from the other side of the Atlantic, like Sarah Palin, or Ted Cruz."

"In his frantic attempt to secure as many votes as possible, he abandoned the centrist voters and overly appealed to ultra right wing ones, at times putting the Reagan cold war rhetoric to shame. When he finally realized that by doing so, he was alienating the moderate ones, he attempted to lure them by scaring them with negative campaigning that even the GOP Super PACs would be envious of."

On Tsipras:

"Tsipras was focusing on imitating the style, political rhetoric and populism of the late Socialist PM Andreas Papandreou – promising everything under the sun and avoiding all the tough questions concerning his agenda."

[Vosem]

When he finally realized that by doing so, he was alienating the moderate ones, he attempted to lure them by scaring them with negative campaigning that even the GOP Super PACs would be envious of.

Let us hope he is as overwhelmingly successful as the GOP super PACs have been.

[Bacon King]

per GPO, how support has moved between parties (I assume since Euro 2014; my Greek is terrible, I'm just assuming b/c Potami is included)

I can't even figure out what those graphics are saying about how the vote is flowing.

19% of KKE goes to SYRIZA
10% of To Potami goes to SYRIZA, 14% to ND
20% of PASOK goes to SYRIZA, 11.5% TO ND
19% of ANEL goes to SYRIZA, 16% to ND
9% of XA TO SYRIZA, 19% to ND
12% of others to SYRIZA, 12% of others to ND

SYRIZA vote breakdown: 91% retained, 1% to KKE, 1% to Papandreou, 0.5% to To Potami, 2.5% to ND, 3% undecided

ND vote breakdown: 83.5% retained, 10% to SYRIZA, 0.5% to To Potami, 1% to XA%, 5% undecided

[politicus]

per GPO, how support has moved between parties (I assume since Euro 2014; my Greek is terrible, I'm just assuming b/c Potami is included)

I can't even figure out what those graphics are saying about how the vote is flowing.

19% of KKE goes to SYRIZA
10% of To Potami goes to SYRIZA, 14% to ND
20% of PASOK goes to SYRIZA, 11.5% TO ND
19% of ANEL goes to SYRIZA, 16% to ND
9% of XA TO SYRIZA, 19% to ND
12% of others to SYRIZA, 12% of others to ND

SYRIZA vote breakdown: 91% retained, 1% to KKE, 1% to Papandreou, 0.5% to To Potami, 2.5% to ND, 3% undecided

ND vote breakdown: 83.5% retained, 10% to SYRIZA, 0.5% to To Potami, 1% to XA%, 5% undecided

Remarkably low ND to Potami move. Would have guessed 2% at least.

[Diouf]

[doktorb]

...nope, can't understand that one bit, lol

[Tender Branson]

Samaras will be re-elected.

Phil, I seriously doubt that.

The chances right now that SYRIZA wins in a landslide (8%+ or 10%+) tomorrow are higher than ND winning.

But... Just 3 days ago you predicted a ND win!

That's not the same: It was my 1st prediction of the election when polls showed a still tight race (SYRIZA ahead by 2-4%) and then changed it to a big SYRIZA-win (because the final polls showed an increasing margin). Phil's post was much clearer about a win for ND.

[politicus]

...nope, can't understand that one bit, lol

It shows the connection between wasted votes and the share needed for a single party majority.
With 3% wasted votes Syriza (or ND) would need 39.2% and with 16% wasted they would only need 34%.

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

Polls are open from 7am to 7pm local time.

That's 6pm CET and noon in the US (east coast).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_25/01/2015_546503

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite3_1_21/01/2015_546422

[Landslide Lyndon]

Samaras will be re-elected.

Phil, I seriously doubt that.

The chances right now that SYRIZA wins in a landslide (8%+ or 10%+) tomorrow are higher than ND winning.

Phil is trolling of course. Even the most die-hard fans of ND accepted their fate a week ago.
The real question is whether SYRIZA will obtain an absolute majority of seats or not.

[Velasco]

Phil is trolling of course.

Nah. He has a developed clairvoyance, that's all

[Zinneke]

Now that I've seen how far to the right Samaras has swung his party, I am definitely in the camp of those who say this will be a Syriza landslide. Any moderate liberal Greek is probably staying at home today, packing his bags and looking for jobs elsewhere online.

[Philip Weisler]

Which statement or policy reveals such a ''swing to the right''? All this talk about ND getting ultra right-wing looks like scaremongering as of now.

EDT: In my opinion, ND generally suits well for ''moderate liberal'' middle class people, the problem however is, that their economic policy will not succeed. Lots of commentators say GREXIT is the preferred option.

Now that I've seen how far to the right Samaras has swung his party, I am definitely in the camp of those who say this will be a Syriza landslide. Any moderate liberal Greek is probably staying at home today, packing his bags and looking for jobs elsewhere online.

[Zanas]

Well, we have this. It's an exit poll, but I'd take this with the usual heavy grain of salt. Still, here it goes :

Syriza 33.5-35.5
ND 25.5-27.6
XA 6.4
To Potami 6.2
KKE 5
Pasok 4.5
Anel 4.3
Kidiso 2.9

The pollster is RIA Novosti, who didn't publish the single smallest poll in the run towards the election, all the more reason to be cautious.

[politicus]

Well, we have this. It's an exit poll, but I'd take this with the usual heavy grain of salt. Still, here it goes :

Syriza 33.5-35.5
ND 25.5-27.6
XA 6.4
To Potami 6.2
KKE 5
Pasok 4.5
Anel 4.3
Kidiso 2.9

The pollster is RIA Novosti, who didn't publish the single smallest poll in the run towards the election, all the more reason to be cautious.

An exit poll will be published by all TV networks at 7 PM. That is the only credible one.

[jaichind]

An exit poll will be published by all TV networks at 7 PM. That is the only credible one.

Why 7pm?  I thought the polls close at 6pm?

[politicus]

An exit poll will be published by all TV networks at 7 PM. That is the only credible one.

Why 7pm?  I thought the polls close at 6pm?

No 7pm

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/news/article/safe-estimate-of-the-election-results-at-2130-local-time

[Tender Branson]

exit poll

An "exit poll" conducted several hours before polls close is a joke.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

"called up to vote"? Does Greece have mandatory voting?

[Tender Branson]

An exit poll will be published by all TV networks at 7 PM. That is the only credible one.

Why 7pm?  I thought the polls close at 6pm?

7pm local time. Which is 6pm here in Central/Western Europe and noon in NY.

[Tender Branson]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

"called up to vote"? Does Greece have mandatory voting?

Greece has mandatory voting, on paper. It's not enforced at all though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Samaras will be re-elected.

Phil, I seriously doubt that.

The chances right now that SYRIZA wins in a landslide (8%+ or 10%+) tomorrow are higher than ND winning.

Phil is trolling of course. Even the most die-hard fans of ND accepted their fate a week ago.
The real question is whether SYRIZA will obtain an absolute majority of seats or not.

Well he did predict that Santorum would win in 2006 so this could just be the Greek version.